Round 2: Celtics vs Cavs

InstaFace

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You probably remember this, although it's the kind of thing I need to look up from time to time to remind myself, but usage rate just tells you whether the player *ends* a possession (through a shot, turnover, etc.). It might be better called finishing rate.

Tatum starts and is involved in the middle of lots of our possessions, although other people often end up ending them. His and Joker's usage rates are lower than Jaylen and Murray for a reason.
Yes, the difference that stood out to me was the dropoff from the regular season. Tatum has been well over 30% for 4 straight regular seasons now (30.2% this season), and at roughly 30% across the last 3 years' playoffs. It's a nontrivial dropoff from there to 25.5%. Perhaps opponents are doing some fundamentally different things on defense, or perhaps Tatum is being a bit more hesitant / passive, but the figure is notable for how much of a change it represents.

The last 4 years, Jokic averaged 29.5% in the regular season, 32.0% in the playoffs (and Bk-Ref has him at 28% these playoffs so far, not sure why it differs from NBA.com's 26.9%). So just being your team's focal-point distributor and initiator doesn't have to mean your usage rate goes way down once playoff defenses get involved.
 
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lovegtm

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Yes, the difference that stood out to me was the dropoff from the regular season. Tatum has been well over 30% for 4 straight regular seasons now (30.2% this season), and at roughly 30% across the last 3 years' playoffs. It's a nontrivial dropoff from there to 25.5%. Perhaps opponents are doing some fundamentally different things on defense, or perhaps Tatum is being a bit more hesitant / passive, but the figure is notable for how much of a change it represents.

The last 4 years, Jokic averaged 29.5% in the regular season, 32.0% in the playoffs (and Bk-Ref has him at 28% these playoffs so far, not sure why it differs from NBA.com's 26.9%). So just being your team's focal-point distributor and initiator doesn't have to mean your usage rate goes way down once playoff defenses get involved.
Tatum, despite being a worse offensive player than Jokic, is used to initiate offense as a screener and a cutter more. This dramatically lowers his usage while still letting him "initiate", and is by far the biggest change to the Celtics' offense from years past.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah, I'm not worried at all about Tatum's usage or his passes, or his shots....
He's playing as the initiator a lot, and opponents are selling out to defend him, and he's responding as he should, making the right pass, being in the right spot so his teammates get mismatches or open shots. And it's paying off in a bunch of complete blowout wins.
If teams play them differently, or someone needs to take over... he'll play differently. I think of it like football... if a team drops 8 into coverage and has very light fronts... your QB checks to the run, or throws short... if you're up 21 points you run it until they stop playing pass. We don't say.... "why didn't the QB throw deep" we say "great gameplan, dominant win". i think sometimes people get so obsessed in the NBA with highlights and heliocentric play that they forget.... the point is to win, and if you can win big the way you're playing why would you want to change that to get your star a sexy statline?
 

Jimbodandy

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Yeah, I'm not worried at all about Tatum's usage or his passes, or his shots....
He's playing as the initiator a lot, and opponents are selling out to defend him, and he's responding as he should, making the right pass, being in the right spot so his teammates get mismatches or open shots. And it's paying off in a bunch of complete blowout wins.
If teams play them differently, or someone needs to take over... he'll play differently. I think of it like football... if a team drops 8 into coverage and has very light fronts... your QB checks to the run, or throws short... if you're up 21 points you run it until they stop playing pass. We don't say.... "why didn't the QB throw deep" we say "great gameplan, dominant win". i think sometimes people get so obsessed in the NBA with highlights and heliocentric play that they forget.... the point is to win, and if you can win big the way you're playing why would you want to change that to get your star a sexy statline?
Good example.
 

Justthetippett

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Yeah, I'm not worried at all about Tatum's usage or his passes, or his shots....
He's playing as the initiator a lot, and opponents are selling out to defend him, and he's responding as he should, making the right pass, being in the right spot so his teammates get mismatches or open shots. And it's paying off in a bunch of complete blowout wins.
If teams play them differently, or someone needs to take over... he'll play differently. I think of it like football... if a team drops 8 into coverage and has very light fronts... your QB checks to the run, or throws short... if you're up 21 points you run it until they stop playing pass. We don't say.... "why didn't the QB throw deep" we say "great gameplan, dominant win". i think sometimes people get so obsessed in the NBA with highlights and heliocentric play that they forget.... the point is to win, and if you can win big the way you're playing why would you want to change that to get your star a sexy statline?
You definitely should not. The NBA is littered with stars that would have a hard time with this though. None of them see themselves as game managers, like some NFL QBs might, particularly where the situation calls for it. The Celtics are very lucky to have a guy that doesn't seem to care. It's also why counting stats are misleading. The guy who makes the last pass before the bucket gets a tic on the stat sheet, but Tatum initiating that play by passing out of a double team does not, even though he contributes as much or more.
 

the moops

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Yeah, I'm not worried at all about Tatum's usage or his passes, or his shots....
He's playing as the initiator a lot, and opponents are selling out to defend him, and he's responding as he should, making the right pass, being in the right spot so his teammates get mismatches or open shots. And it's paying off in a bunch of complete blowout wins.
It is resulting in blowout wins because the opponents are pretty terrible. If Tatum plays the same way in the finals against a MIN or OKC or some real team, his play may be more of a problem (if it continues which I expect it won't because he is too good to continue to shoot this poorly).
 

lovegtm

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It is resulting in blowout wins because the opponents are pretty terrible. If Tatum plays the same way in the finals against a MIN or OKC or some real team, his play may be more of a problem (if it continues which I expect it won't because he is too good to continue to shoot this poorly).
Minnesota is going to be a really, really tough nut to crack when they're on D.
 

Cellar-Door

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It is resulting in blowout wins because the opponents are pretty terrible. If Tatum plays the same way in the finals against a MIN or OKC or some real team, his play may be more of a problem (if it continues which I expect it won't because he is too good to continue to shoot this poorly).
What way is the question.... he's getting really good players great shots.

People are WILDLY overrating how bad the opponents are. The Cavs are not a team you blow out by 20+ just by showing up.
The Celtics are dominating decent teams. If they were in the West they'd have similarly housed NOP.

If MIN and OKC defend the Celtics the way the Cavs and Heat have and Tatum plays like he has, and the other players on BOS do as well.... they'll get a shiny trophy and rings because his not great efficiency is still fine and he's getting guys like White and Brown easy buckets.

Of course I doubt MIN or OKC would defend that way, they are more confident in their individual wing defenders and instead of daring Tatum to make the right pass they'll probably try to limit him and make the Celtics win more 1 v 1 matchups, which will require Tatum to play differently.

That was kind of the point, Tatum isn't using a lot of possessions because the entire defense for both matchups so far has been built around getting the ball out of his hands.

Look to the football analogy above. You're basically saying "Well Mahomes had only 26 pass attempts and a really low YPA, sure they won by 21, but when they play SF if he plays like that it'll be a problem".

Tatum is playing great basketball.... he's just not shooting much and he's a bit below his normal efficiency in that small sample, but he's making massive contributions to dominant wins. Nobody should have any worry at all based on how he's played. People are creating a fake worry because "team obliterates competition" is a boring story.
 

the moops

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People are WILDLY overrating how bad the opponents are. The Cavs are not a team you blow out by 20+ just by showing up.
The Heat were terrible and missing their most important player. The Cavs aren't as bad, but they are extremely shallow and also missing one of their most important players. Yes, Boston is missing Porzingis, but even so the talent disparity is drastic between MIA, CLE, and BOS
 

lovegtm

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Think there are two separate points/questions here:

1. Miami was decimated, and Cleveland is shallow + missing Allen. Western champ will be a lot better than CLE or NYK
2. Will the offensive approach of having Tatum initiate but not finish lots of plays work against that West champ?
 

Ed Hillel

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Think there are two separate points/questions here:

1. Miami was decimated, and Cleveland is shallow + missing Allen. Western champ will be a lot better than CLE or NYK
2. Will the offensive approach of having Tatum initiate but not finish lots of plays work against that West champ?
A lot better than the Knicks if OG is healthy? If so, disagree. Maybe a half step up imo.
 

Cellar-Door

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The Heat were terrible and missing their most important player. The Cavs aren't as bad, but they are extremely shallow and also missing one of their most important players. Yes, Boston is missing Porzingis, but even so the talent disparity is drastic between MIA, CLE, and BOS
That's the NBA, half the West playoff teams are like that too, and part of the disparity is that the Celtics are a historically good team.

Think there are two separate points/questions here:

1. Miami was decimated, and Cleveland is shallow + missing Allen. Western champ will be a lot better than CLE or NYK
2. Will the offensive approach of having Tatum initiate but not finish lots of plays work against that West champ?
2. If those teams approach it the same... yeah almost certainly unless BOS suffers a bunch of injuries, because this is a team with an incredible depth of high level players who will punish teams that give them easy shots. If the West Champs want to give the Celtics open 3s for 40% shooters and Jaylen Brown 1v1 on their worst perimeter defender.... good luck.
 

nighthob

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Good to see that Boston’s game 2 effort levels have remained consistent. Hopefully they take care of business in Cleveland.
 

osori

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Levert can beat Tatum off the drive every time.

edit : oops thought I was in gamethread...
 

radsoxfan

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Given the stakes, the quality of the competition, and being at home.... probably the worst loss of the season.

If the Cavs ever figure out that they can inject Allen pre-game with some pain meds, this series could get very interesting.
 

Ed Hillel

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I wish I could sleep for 6 weeks straight and just read whatever the last finals game headline is. This isn’t fun.

I feel like one title in hand would make this a lot easier, at least for this squad.
 

Auger34

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Our defense is what starts our offensive engine.

They inexplicably no-show on defense every other home game.
Agreed on the defense.

It also seems like the C’s need one of Holiday or White to play well. Its really damn tough to win when they both play like flaming bags of dog poo
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Game 1 they made Mitchell work his ass off for every last basket. Tonight he cooked them effortlessly. Meanwhile Tatum's bag has turned into a coin purse. Enough with the god forsaken one footed fade aways. Max Strus is eating his lunch.
 

slamminsammya

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There was almost no help on drives to the hoop or whenever Mobley was working one on one. I wonder was that a strategic choice or were we just witnessing Horford being a step slow at his age. There was a shocking number of unmolested straight line drives to the hoop in the first half especially before cleveland decided they’d mix it up by shooting a shitload of threes. Any smart folks have an idea on this one?
 

radsoxfan

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I wish I could sleep for 6 weeks straight and just read whatever the last finals game headline is. This isn’t fun.

I feel like one title in hand would make this a lot easier, at least for this squad.
I said the same thing to my brothers about the Heat series. You might be right, would be better to sleep through all of the playoffs.

This team is much better than it's opponents yet continues to play such lackluster, uninspired basketball.
 

j-man

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I wish I could sleep for 6 weeks straight and just read whatever the last finals game headline is. This isn’t fun.

I feel like one title in hand would make this a lot easier, at least for this squad.
i feel ya your team has the most talent in the nba OKC and minn are close and OKC has a very bright future i think they have 30 draft picks over the next 5-7 years best case for boston is can den get to 7 aga minn and can okc beat the den/minn winner okc is not ready yet plus chet can be pushed around
 

j-man

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I said the same thing to my brothers about the Heat series. You might be right, would be better to sleep through all of the playoffs.

This team is much better than it's opponents yet continues to play such lackluster, uninspired basketball.
i just hate how the NBA spaces games hockey its every other day these nba guys are in great shape a 7-game series can be over in 10 days
 

DeadlySplitter

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Didn't like so much regular season rotations when the C's were down 8-15 points late in 3rd / early 4th. It's the second round of the playoffs, Joe. (I guess Tillman might be unplayable actually? If so, maybe they need to push the KP timeline.)

The team could really use a signature win, either a close one or coming back from 10+ down in the 4th. They're so talented they could win it all without one, but it *feels* that they always fold up in these situations.
 

8slim

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I said the same thing to my brothers about the Heat series. You might be right, would be better to sleep through all of the playoffs.

This team is much better than it's opponents yet continues to play such lackluster, uninspired basketball.
They’re immature. Have been for a few years now. I don’t think it’s changing. Doesn’t mean they can’t win a title. Hopefully.
 

Strike4

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I still have trouble with the fact that a hallmark of Brad Stevens teams (which I still think of this one as being) was that they put in so much effort in those early days when their most talented player was like Avery Bradley, and they overachieved in a remarkable way due to that effort. It was amazing. And now the big flaw is the exact opposite. How did that happen? Same regime!
 

slamminsammya

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I still have trouble with the fact that a hallmark of Brad Stevens teams (which I still think of this one as being) was that they put in so much effort in those early days when their most talented player was like Avery Bradley, and they overachieved in a remarkable way due to that effort. It was amazing. And now the big flaw is the exact opposite. How did that happen? Same regime!
that same team went down 0-2 at home to the bulls in the first round.
 

bosockboy

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Didn't like so much regular season rotations when the C's were down 8-15 points late in 3rd / early 4th. It's the second round of the playoffs, Joe. (I guess Tillman might be unplayable actually? If so, maybe they need to push the KP timeline.)

The team could really use a signature win, either a close one or coming back from 10+ down in the 4th. They're so talented they could win it all without one, but it *feels* that they always fold up in these situations.
2022 they won a buzzer beater in game 1 against Brooklyn. Think it helped a lot.

They either win or lose by 20. It’s not helpful.
 

Return of the Dewey

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I still have trouble with the fact that a hallmark of Brad Stevens teams (which I still think of this one as being) was that they put in so much effort in those early days when their most talented player was like Avery Bradley, and they overachieved in a remarkable way due to that effort. It was amazing. And now the big flaw is the exact opposite. How did that happen? Same regime!
Exhibit A as to why, in the NBA, coaching only takes you so far. It’s on the players.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Game 1 they made Mitchell work his ass off for every last basket. Tonight he cooked them effortlessly.
Actually, they used Mitchell as a facilitator for most of the first half and the other guys hit layup after layup. That left Mitchell fresh for the second half, and he did his business. It seemed like a very smart strategy that worked.
 

jmcc5400

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This is only a thing for folks who told you it was going to be easy.
Yup. Playoffs. So now we’ll veer from the yin of coronation to the yang of too immature. Like the other team has no say in this.

That said …. man, I hated seeing the 5 that opened the 4th. It *did* seem too complacent.
 

lexrageorge

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Look at the playoff records of past NBA champions. Nearly all had inexplicable home losses in their game logs. That is my copium for the day.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Yup. Playoffs. So now we’ll veer from the yin of coronation to the yang of too immature. Like the other team has no say in this.

That said …. man, I hated seeing the 5 that opened the 4th. It *did* seem too complacent.
To be clear, the team has adjustments to make but we would all do best to ignore the folks who predicted a sweep as the expected outcome. Now they are exposed so they are going to be big mad at everyone.

Back to the Cs, they are in a series and the Cavs are a good team. They absolutely can beat Boston three more times in the next five games. Its unlikely but it can happen. Time to fix things for game three.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Wear whatever color glasses you wanna wear, but:

Holiday has been trash offensively these playoffs...which holds true for how his career has gone. 35 minutes, 4 points?

The reason I pointed at Tatums stretch of games - which, by the way, his numbers before the blowout tonight were bad as well - is because we can't rely on White to average 10 points above his season average or hang career nights in points.

Holiday has gotten a free pass from Boston fans because we haven't seen him whither in the playoffs yet. Here it is. 8 points per game through 7 games. If we're just expecting to win a title because when the offense looks good, it looks great...guess what? How many times in the last 20 games of the season did we see them get stagnant? We need this team to execute and not fall into the same shit that crushes them the past half decade.

Of course it isn't going to be easy, but goddamn we can't have Holiday averaging 8PPG and Tatum throwing up 37% nights while he defers to anyone else.
 

the moops

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Holiday has gotten a free pass from Boston fans because we haven't seen him whither in the playoffs yet. Here it is. 8 points per game through 7 games.
He has not been good, but he did only average 12.5 points on the season (and he is actually averaging nearly 9 points, not 9).Those 3.5 points per game not coming from him aren't what has been hurting them. And they are 5-2 in the playoffs so far, so all is still good
 

DeadlySplitter

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Jrue is here to be the unselfish Smart with great D and not hogging the ball on offense. I couldn't care less about below his average on O, they have much bigger concerns right now.