Round 2: Celtics vs Cavs
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Well then, you’re a lot younger than I am. The other strange thing besides Maxwell winning the finals MVP back then was that even NBA playoffs TV, even the finals were tape delayed. I remember watching the Celtics clinch the title after midnight, and that was in California time!
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Call me crazy, but given how Tatum has moved the ball all year and all postseason, might the Cavs best shot to win might actually to play Tatum 1:1 a ton, try to make things tempting for him, and just hope he has a few cold shooting games? They should want him taking 30 shots at this point. Otherwise they're going 1-2-3-Cancun with a ~ -80 margin in the series.
I get the idea, but there's a reason Tatum gets tons more gameplanning respect from coaches and players than he does from Twitter people.
Against that approach, he would just drive/bullyball the shit out of Cleveland. If you start sending help, then you're back to sqaure one: he'll put you in rotation and now the JBs and DWhites are cooking you.
If you put your best defender on him to make 1:1 work, well.....Spoelstra tried exactly that, and Tatum just hung out in the corner and let the other guys play 4-on-4 against worse defenders.
CJM+Tatum have a lot of answers right now. The answers depend on JB/DWhite being good, but they are, so that makes things brutal.
This sounds right, but Boston's defensive game plan all year has been to allow a lot of 3's, as long as they aren't from the corners. Boston allowed 37.5 3PA/100 this year, 4th most, while holding teams to a .352 shooting percentage, 4th lowest. I imagine Boston's offense drives some of this as well, when the Celtics are raining 3's other teams will try to keep up and they just can't.
Especially with KP out, baiting the Jays into bad shots would seem to be the way to go. Problem is if the Cavs single cover Tatum, he's gonna get good shots. They just don't have the defenders to handle either Tatum or Brown 1v1.
Agreed, and this is the biggest change in Tatum last year and in particular this year: he's a really ferocious driver and competent post-up player now. You used to be able to gamble on his dribble and his shot faltering - but now, the odd game and heat-check period notwithstanding - he's going to drive to the basket and create really high-value looks if you don't actively scheme to prevent it. And that is a very tough set of shots to give up.
Miami toyed with this approach, though focusing on Brown moreso than Tatum, and while it worked for part of game 2 it didn't after that. The Celtics aren't perfectly disciplined, but they are pretty good about pushing for the right shots.
To lovegtm, I think you're right on the 4 on 4 and also that is part of the disconnect beween Tatum's on-court impact and his shooting stats---he's accepting that sometimes his role is to anchor the defense elsehwere, and he is largely ok with that.
One underrated Tatum thing is that coaches HATE letting him catch the ball against a scrambling D. Against guys like Luka and Harden they're ok to let the catch happen and then close out/recover, but not letting Tatum catch with an advantage is clearly a point of emphasis in gameplanning.
This drastically increases his gravity and limits the ability of his man to help.
Big gap in narrative and coaches' revealed preferences.
This drastically increases his gravity and limits the ability of his man to help.
Big gap in narrative and coaches' revealed preferences.
Given that KP is likely to be available first out of the two of them, it's worth saying that I think Porzingis is nearly a worst-case-scenario matchup for Jarrett Allen. Allen's whole game is extreme athleticism to defend paint drives and post play - but while he's 6'11, KP at 7'3" can (A) shoot over him for his FT-line midrangers, (B) pull him out of the paint entirely with his 3-point threats, and (C) contest or even deny most of Allen's own post offense (most of Allen's plus-skills offensively come from drawing fouls, and KP is really good about not fouling, relative to his peers). Other than Wembanyama, I'm not sure there's a matchup I would dread more than KP, not even Anthony Davis. If I'm Allen, I think, better to rest up, not get embarrassed, and if by some miracle my team wins the series, I get healthy for the ECF.
Let's watch the highlights from the December game (the one we spotted them a 22-4 lead and then methodically ground them down after that), and focus our eyes on the two of them:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UyU0yOv3wQ
0:30 Allen unable to help on Jaylen drive
0:58 Allen dunks on Porzingis (!)
1:18 Porzingis dropped so far that Allen can get Mitchell an uncontested 3 on a screen
(KP out 1:25 - 3:30, but notice in ~2:50 how much deeper Allen is, able to deter drives)
3:30 KP finds Brown for a dunk on their backdoor-cut bromance play, Allen at the perimeter
4:10 Jrue finds a cutting Jaylen for a layup Allen is late to. Niang goes straight up, almost causes a miss... but if it misses, KP is cutting in for an uncontested putback dunk, Allen just lost him
4:45 KP deters a layup attempt from Mitchell, then recovers to Allen to prevent any sort of layoff to him
4:58 Another Allen screen frees up Mitchell on a 3, KP parked in the paint
5:07 Tatum switched onto Allen, who finds Mitchell beating Jrue to the layup; KP late rotating over (and was on the wrong side to help anyway)
5:16 KP's first real offensive highlight: cuts to dunker spot, gets entry pass from Jaylen, and sky hooks around Allen like he's not even there - for an and-1.
5:46 Allen on KP at the perimeter. Fake to a drive, to a stepback, to a largely-uncontested 3 at the top
6:25 2Bigz now, KP pick-and-pop, Allen over-helps Garland on the White drive, White finds KP for a wholly-uncontested 3 at the top
6:35 Porzingis matched up on Okoro, goes right to his post moves and basically rolls him for a layup; Allen doesn't help (worried about White 3, reasonably)
6:50 A Hauser 3 where Porzingis crashes from outside, if it's a miss, it's a big KP putback dunk; Allen was worried about boxing out Horford
(KP out 7:15 - 8:20)
8:39 Porzingis switches on a Garland pick, Garland finds Allen on the roll for a floater, this is one I think they'd stay home on today and just have White run Garland off the 3 point line
8:48 Allen helps on a Jaylen block play, Porzingis cut into the paint draws help from LeVert on weak side, as Allen recovers to Porzingis it opens up cross-court pass for open White 3 that seals the game, great play by Jaylen
8:55 With Allen switched and boxed out, Porzingis takes a LeVert drive 1v1 (not a great situation for KP), but deters the layup enough to get the kick-out pass (Garland hits a 3, but whatever).
9:06 Porzingis on the perimeter, Jaylen on the block, Allen clearly terrified to help Strus on Jaylen, feints briefly but doesn't commit to it due to KP's 3-point threat, Jaylen gets his turnaround J for our last points
9:16 Brown gets cooked by LeVert at the perimeter, Porzingis able to help in the paint, but LeVert finds Allen on a layoff; Porzingis contests and nearly blocks the layup, but it ends up an Allen and-1 (who misses the FT)
Overall, Allen was able to make some plays, especially when setting picks with Porzingis dropped way inside, but Porzingis totally took him out of what he generally prefers to do on defense.
This is terrific, thanks. Im very hopeful that we see more of the #BCB plays when Porzingis comes back..
Yeah, you're independently re-deriving why the Cs put up stupid offensive ratings with Tatum even when he shoots poorly.
I think if you saw them going from Tatum having the attention of 3+ defenders on every touch to defending him 1:1, we would quickly see why no NBA defense does that. We may still see it, but daring Tatum to beat them would be essentially to adopt a defensive strategy of hoping to steal a game rather than trying to win the series.
Spoelstra has had the most effective version of this strategy over the years, and the Warriors copied it in 2022: go 1:1, and send lots of late help. Tatum solved it against Miami this year, totally wrecked that gameplan, and Spo had to move to plan B. As you said, it is no longer a viable move against Tatum.
Tatum obviously has to shoot a lot better, but people are losing the plot lol.
View: https://twitter.com/statcenter/status/1788224306129871025?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/NekiasNBA/status/1788217532173693119
View: https://twitter.com/statcenter/status/1788224306129871025?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/NekiasNBA/status/1788217532173693119
NBA Twitter brains are so warped from heliocentric brain worms that they can't appreciate economy of effort, which trickles down to other areas like defense, rebounding, and off-ball-threateningness.
Like, at a certain point people forgot that the point of basketball is to score more points and allow fewer points, and that shooting percentages and usage rates are just very very rough proxies for that.
One reality of defending the Celtics is you need two quality wing defenders---it's just really tough to matchup if you have to double or scheme against either Tatum or Brown, they will get you in rotation and the Celts shooting is too good.
Teams have all sorts of ways to try and deal with NOT having those two wing stoppers (and Cleveland does not) - GS "let Jaylen shoot" being a creative and failed one, Miami's "let them go one on one and hope" being another. But those are all really tough bets for the defense over the course of a game....let alone a series. If you don't have those wing defenders you are likely in a lot of trouble.
Teams have all sorts of ways to try and deal with NOT having those two wing stoppers (and Cleveland does not) - GS "let Jaylen shoot" being a creative and failed one, Miami's "let them go one on one and hope" being another. But those are all really tough bets for the defense over the course of a game....let alone a series. If you don't have those wing defenders you are likely in a lot of trouble.
Teams will continue to try and make Jaylen beat them, and if he plays anything like he did last night, good luck lol.
Wasn’t just the made shots, it was that he knew the Cavs weren’t going to send help for the most part, so everything was decisive and under control.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that thwir current strategy isn’t going to win them the series either
Exactly. Maybe it would only help them steal a game. But if they did what they did last night it's 123Cancun with a -80 margin.
Somehow they seem even more outmatched than Miami sans-Butler. And they have a true Alpha Scorer in Mitchell!
I saw people stressing over how the Cavs would give them a tough series, and I legitimately laughed. This team won’t be challenged until the finals IMO.
Last thing about Tatum, stuff like this is why I don’t care that he missed a couple of extra shots, because we see some variation of this almost every time down the court. Whether it’s him cutting, being the corner spacer, dribbling the ball out to create passing angles, etc. @lovegtm has used this comp for awhile, but Tatum gets defended off ball as closely as you’ll see to how Steph was.
View: https://twitter.com/NElGHT_/status/1788240309878485467
But also, it’s time to start hitting your shots lol.
I mean that could have been anyone in that video though. That is just bad transition defense. Pritchard could have been cutting through the lane on that play and the defense would react the same.
On that specific play, is that because it’s Tatum cutting? It looks like Evan Mobley is completely lost so Mitchell had to stay with the person going to the basket to prevent a wide open dunk and therefore leave Brown open.
This is not accurate lol. I mean it’s bad transition defense, but this constantly happens in the half court too.
It’s not because it’s Tatum cutting, it’s because Tatum cut. People don’t watch off ball a ton, because it’s boring lol, but that’s where Tatum has just destroyed other teams this season, and especially in the postseason.
Not really, because the point is that he made the cut, where a lot of players would try to get in position to get the ball. Look at it, he has zero intention of getting the ball there.
That’s why I said “stuff like this is why I don’t care about a couple of extra missed shots”, because he does a ton of little things off the ball that most people don’t see, or comprehend, if I’m being completely honest.
That's fine in this specific case, but in general, NBA coaches clearly have a universal directive to their guys to stay glued to Tatum off-ball.
There's a huge gap between what Twitter thinks of Tatum and what coaches think of him. It's not hard to find tons of clips like this, across lots of teams and scenarios. I'm sure Thinking Basketball or someone similar will do a video on it at some point, because it jumps off the screen once you see it once.
Good god. He cut to the basket. Something that just about every damn player in the league would do in that situation. Al was the one who made the good play in this clip more so than Tatum
I am now going to log off, because arguing with ridiculous people isn’t something I want to spend extra time doing.
People have repeatedly mentioned that this was just an example of something that happens, and a way to talk about a broader topic, but you seem weirdly averse to that conversation.
With Tatum, it's the volume of these things that he does. It's not any individual instance of him cutting or screening that's the important thing (though clips like the above can be illustrative), it's that he does those things all the time compared to his superstar peers. It's all the instances of him cutting, and screening, and moving constantly without the ball, and getting rebounds, and making plays for his teammates, and blocking shots...
I'm not even making the argument that he's better than Luka, or whatever, but he has the most complete game of any superstar in the NBA. And it took him awhile to get here, but he's worked his tail off to close the weaknesses in his game and has been completely unselfish this season from preseason on. The result has been the best offense and nearly the best defense in the league.
Some of us see that and think it's vastly more important to the success of this team going forward than his shooting percentage - not because we wouldn't like him to shoot better, but because he's already shown he can score. What was going to keep Tatum from being the best player on a championship team was not being able to make his teammates better, not failing to score efficiently enough. And yet some people seem hung up on the latter despite all the evidence that it's not a long-term concern, while downplaying that he's figured out the former.
I'm not even making the argument that he's better than Luka, or whatever, but he has the most complete game of any superstar in the NBA. And it took him awhile to get here, but he's worked his tail off to close the weaknesses in his game and has been completely unselfish this season from preseason on. The result has been the best offense and nearly the best defense in the league.
Some of us see that and think it's vastly more important to the success of this team going forward than his shooting percentage - not because we wouldn't like him to shoot better, but because he's already shown he can score. What was going to keep Tatum from being the best player on a championship team was not being able to make his teammates better, not failing to score efficiently enough. And yet some people seem hung up on the latter despite all the evidence that it's not a long-term concern, while downplaying that he's figured out the former.
I am not adverse to that conversation. Jayson Tatum is an incredible basketball player. I fully acknowledge that and agree that he does many things that don't show up in the boxscore. I just find some the love a bit over the top when it resorts to pointing out how amazing it is that he cut to the basket and didn't even look to get the ball!
If you're JB Bickerstaff, what do you do differently in game 2?
Allen returning makes Mobley on Tatum an option, and that would give them different matchups that may be better (at least, takes Strus out of firing line). Otherwise, it's hard to see that the defensive options really have a lot of wiggle room - LeVert, Merrill, Strus even Morris all are going to have a lot of trouble one on one vs Brown. I'm not sure they really have a play other than being more active in bluffing a double and trying to force Jaylen to think more - there is not a silver bullet matchup change I can see
Allen returning makes Mobley on Tatum an option, and that would give them different matchups that may be better (at least, takes Strus out of firing line). Otherwise, it's hard to see that the defensive options really have a lot of wiggle room - LeVert, Merrill, Strus even Morris all are going to have a lot of trouble one on one vs Brown. I'm not sure they really have a play other than being more active in bluffing a double and trying to force Jaylen to think more - there is not a silver bullet matchup change I can see
This may be a lost cause, but can I make an attempt at peacemaker? You're both right
Auger and Moops are correct that in that clip Mobley is (for some reason I'm not going to back and watch film to understand) ridiculously out of position. He should be matched up on Horford, or failing that anyone really, but since he's completely behind the play that forces Mitchell as the weak-side low man to rotate
Rorscharch is correct that Tatum pulls attention and help defenders on lots and lots of half court and transition sets, including by cutting, and that's both valuable and not directly reported in the box score
Anyway, carry on
This is more of a 2 bigs series for Boston than the last one was, and I think less of a PP series.
I would actually have liked to see a bit more Tillman last night, although one of the beat writers tweeted that he was messing up their offensive spacing so maye that is why Mazzulla didn;t give himmuch time.
Kornet was plus at both ends.
I would actually have liked to see a bit more Tillman last night, although one of the beat writers tweeted that he was messing up their offensive spacing so maye that is why Mazzulla didn;t give himmuch time.
Kornet was plus at both ends.
Hmmm...they played PP more than anyone except the starters (24 minutes), and he was +19 even though he started off shooting not-great.
I think they love PP's spacing and defensive effort. He really gets up into guys and chases them around, in a way that is reminiscent of TJ McConnell's best stuff against Brunson. He shot 4/10 from 3, and was a bit unlucky it was even that low: the looks were great.
I bet he keeps playing a lot--people are still sleeping on how good he's gotten. The new rules help him a lot on defense.
He played the entire 4th though (12 of his 24 minutes), with the Celtics having a big enough lead not to ever go back to the starting 5. Tatum played under 4 minutes, Brown and Al under 5, Horford right around 6.
I went looking and didn't see a Cavs thread, so will park this here
Game 1 of this series reminded me that it's been a little depressing to see Evan Mobley plateau somewhat in year 3.
On defense-- and I don't know how much is the result of his injuries-- but the eye test suggests he's having less impact than last year, when he was good enough to get some lower place votes on the Defensive Player of the Year list. In theory, the excitement about him as a draft prospect was: (i) long/good enough frame to grow into muscle and control the paint, (ii) fluid and quick enough to not get burned on the perimeter, (iii) 'good enough' shooter and passer from all over the court. In effect: he might grow into being something like a 7' Al Horford.
Instead, at present, he gets bullied and muscled around in the paint, does OK outside but still needs help to contain most wings/guards, and only shoots in the paint. The stats say his shooting efficiency has gotten somewhat better, but if he rarely shoots away from the basket that does less to create space for others.
I give HRB credit for being the first person to say (that I heard) that young players need to be able to do one thing at an NBA level to get onto the court. And it doesn't matter how many things you're mediocre at if you can't do one thing really well.
Mobley is still only in year 3. He's got time. But I worry about his career turning into "really tall guy who's just kinda OK at a bunch of stuff".
A 7' Al Horford would be a lot more fun to watch.
Game 1 of this series reminded me that it's been a little depressing to see Evan Mobley plateau somewhat in year 3.
On defense-- and I don't know how much is the result of his injuries-- but the eye test suggests he's having less impact than last year, when he was good enough to get some lower place votes on the Defensive Player of the Year list. In theory, the excitement about him as a draft prospect was: (i) long/good enough frame to grow into muscle and control the paint, (ii) fluid and quick enough to not get burned on the perimeter, (iii) 'good enough' shooter and passer from all over the court. In effect: he might grow into being something like a 7' Al Horford.
Instead, at present, he gets bullied and muscled around in the paint, does OK outside but still needs help to contain most wings/guards, and only shoots in the paint. The stats say his shooting efficiency has gotten somewhat better, but if he rarely shoots away from the basket that does less to create space for others.
I give HRB credit for being the first person to say (that I heard) that young players need to be able to do one thing at an NBA level to get onto the court. And it doesn't matter how many things you're mediocre at if you can't do one thing really well.
Mobley is still only in year 3. He's got time. But I worry about his career turning into "really tall guy who's just kinda OK at a bunch of stuff".
A 7' Al Horford would be a lot more fun to watch.
I wonder what the sentiment would be here today on Tatum’s performance had we lost the game. He repeatedly took and missed pull-up threes early in the shot clock, had an embarrassing sequence to end the 1H with a miss, frustration foul then allowed a Mitchell blow by And1 with a cheap 3rd foul. He showed no urgency all night even when it was just a 10-11 point game. I love Jayson but man I don’t know how anyone can watch that game and say he played well. The best thing he did was not take more shots.
What, if anything, is wrong with Sam Hauser? He has not been shooting with authority or scoring much during non-garbage time minutes, and put up a goose egg in Game 1. He's not playing all that much and Mazulla might have lost some confidence in him. Mazulla has praised Hauser, lumping him in with Kornet, Pritchard and Tillman last night, but it's hard to believe he means it right now.
Since a bunch of people around here are all quantitative and shit, here's another take on what I was getting at
My posts were rooted in on/off stats and what I’ve seen from Tatum and the Celtics through first six games in totality. If they lose a few games where he looks like he did last night I’ll change my tune. But again in the one game where he had his best shooting and points night they lost.
that all said, the initial convo was started with a post about how he played last night if I recall so I may have taken that the wrong way. I’ve still found it to be pretty fruitful discussion though!
He built a McMansion on the top of "Ant Edwards is better than Jayson Tatum right now" mountain. So I don't think that it's fair to say that he's being a contrarian. He has a lower valuation of what Tatum brings offensively than some of us, but it's consistent with the hoop twitterati.
No matter how many times people post actual numbers here about how much more effective the Celtics offense has been in the six playoff games alone because of Tatum, you're slagging his production and efficiency. They've won 5 of 6 games and have ungodly offensive ratings when Tatum is there and pedestrian ones where he's not. The data is in. The fact that it disagrees with your Twitter group think sources has led you to discredit it, along with Darko, LeBron, BBRef, and other data all season. That's fine. It's a free country. But it's odd to accuse this board of being homers and group thinkers when you're the one disregarding data.
I have done no such thing. I have only posited the question here and offered an opinion that it is pretty damn close and not an automatic that Tatum is better