More than 1,000 games into the season, the complaints about instant replay have tapered to a minimum, like they always were going to, because the game is far better with it than without it.
The focus on the collision rule at home plate is understandable due to the murkiness of the rule, and replay itself is shouldering much of the blame even though it's merely a tool for applying the misguided edict. Same thing went for the ill-fated transfer rule, which got foisted on replay because Luddites love nothing more than yelling from their porches that the robots are taking over.
Well, they are. And good thing. Because data through Tuesday shows nearly 250 blown calls have been overturned so far this season, a staggering number considering at this time last season replay had overturned just 19 umpire misses, all on home runs.
We've learned plenty about replay thus far, and below are 10 things you probably didn't know about it. Before that, here's one thing you almost assuredly do know and, if not, another you ought learn quickly: Replay is good, and it's only going to get better.
1. Umpires blow more calls than anyone anticipated
OK, so a society that harbors more contempt for officiating crews than the IRS probably did assume that umpires are every bit as bad as they seem. The truth is they're making instantaneous decisions on calls that come down to minute fractions of a second, and this isn't so much an excuse as it is to point out why instant replay is so vital. To expect anything close to perfection from humans not built to make such calls is ridiculous, especially when technology exists to bring us far closer to that ideal.
Through Tuesday, replay umpires overturned 246 of 533 calls, or 46.2 percent of the total run through the New York hub. During studies of calls last year, MLB estimated that umpires missed 377 throughout the season. This number, it turns out, was folly, and the league now understands why it grossly underestimated the number of overturns.
The replay system subsists on television-broadcast feeds. Without replay, broadcasts were far less likely to focus on the sort of super-close play that has become the basis of most challenges. In addition to changing the game, replay has helped TV evolve, too, where it can play advocate for getting the call right. And because of that, baseball is on pace for more than 560 overturns – one blown call remedied every four games.
2. Two plays account for more than three-quarters of challenges
Between the force play (235 challenges) and the tag play (171), 76.2 percent of challenges come on two common plays at the bases. Considering the early ideas of expanding replay focused on boundary calls (home runs, ground-rule doubles, fan interference, etc.) and fair-foul calls down the lines, the leap to including plays on the bases proved vital.
Almost all of the force plays happen at first base, with a runner trying to beat out an infield single, whereas the tag plays range around the diamond and can be the most difficult for an umpire to see from a good angle. Surprisingly, umpires seem to do a better job on the tag plays; of the 171, only 80 have been changed, an overturn rate of 46.8 percent. Perhaps force plays are more obvious, or more cameras focus on first base, but managers have been extremely successful on them, overturning 123, or 52.3 percent.
The next most-common challenges are home run (43), home-plate collision (25), hit by pitch (19) and fair/foul in the outfield (10).
3. Officially, the fastest replay was 23 seconds ... and it actually took almost two minutes
Zack Cozart fooled everyone in the stadium 11 days ago, including the firework tech
who set off 10 blasts following Cozart's shot down the left-field line at Great American Ball Park. It was a classic line hugger, born for replay, and it showcases the system's inefficiencies.
Reds manager Bryan Price exited the dugout 20 seconds after Cozart swung. He talked with umpires for 44 seconds. They took about 17 seconds to walk to the headsets. At which point MLB confirmed the foul call, a minute and 44 seconds after Price came out of the dugout. Because only 23 seconds were spent corresponding with New York, the reported time is rather misleading.
The fastest call, it would seem, was
by umpire Tim Welke on a not-really-all-that-questionable-but-better-safe-than-sorry Alex Avila home run. Welke spent literally eight seconds wearing the headset. One can imagine the umpire on the other side of the conversation told Welke to stop wasting his time.
MLB hoped the replays would take anywhere between 60 and 90 seconds. This has proven the most problematic part of the system. It's not just the managers coming out to do the awkward dance with umpires that initiates the challenge; at least something is happening there. It's that so many of the plays are so close, the crews rotating through New York – especially those there for the first time – have not yet developed the acuity to assess the plays as quickly as they must. It lends credence to the idea of full-time replay umpires, specialists who can cut down on the time.
Crazy-long replay times are mostly a thing of the past. Three of the four longest – 4:45, 4:40 and 4:35 – all came April 2, three days into the season. Then again, the second longest was June 12,
a hit-by-pitch call that stood and took far longer than necessary.
Of the reported replay times, 91 took less than a minute, 220 were fewer than the target 90 seconds, 329 took two minutes or less, and 61 more than three minutes. Eliminating that last category altogether should be the top priority for replay going forward.
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