Red Sox Post Season roster-ALDS- 2018 edition

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Velazquez has an ERA of 3.18 this year, Kelly 4.39. They are both right-handed and both struggled at various times late in the year. What are the fancy stats that make Kelly the better choice?

I suspect it's the high heat and that Kelly has at times.... looked crazy dominant... like future shut-down closer for team with playoff aspirations type dominant. I don't think that potential is there with Velazquez at all. And who knows? Catch lightning in a bottle! He could find some movement on that 100mph fastball and end up in a Scott Williamson role circa 2003 playoffs (WHY GRADY WHY?!?!?!?).

edit- what bosox79 said with more stats and less anger.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

and make of it what you will, but pretty much the whole bullpen has struggled since the ASB, minus Brasier and Wright. Of course if Price and Sale are pitching like that, it won't matter.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/pitching/_/name/bos/split/182

edit: Hitting has been pretty good though, outside of Kinsler, Moreland and Sandy Vaz.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/bos/split/182

 

[InsideTheParker]

I'm watching Indians/Astros, so don't feel like looking it up, but I am surprised that Kelly has fewer walks than Hector. Kelly seems to walk a lotta guys.

 

[KillerBs]

FIP/xFIP are pretty telling. Kelly 3.57/4.04 Velazquez 4.15/4.63.

The MLB slugged .332 off Kelly this year; 279 last. Against Velazquez: 415.

This will be Kelly's 5th post season. He's been around the block with this stuff.

Velazquez played a key role for us this year but as frustrating as he can be, Kelly is a much better pitcher.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I'm watching Indians/Astros, so don't feel like looking it up, but I am surprised that Kelly has fewer walks than Hector. Kelly seems to walk a lotta guys.

He doesn't. He's faced 85 more batters than Joe Kelly and has 6 less walks. He also has 15 less strikeouts. His WHIP is higher because he's extremely hittable.

vs Velazquez: .290/.351/.415 on a .325 BAbip.
vs Kelly: .234/.330/.332 on a .301 BAbip.

Velazquez is actually good at limiting walks and that's part of the reason he's successful. He also had a low HR rate and gets GBs, so his season hasn't been all luck but his true talent is probably closer to a 4.00-4.20 era while Kelly's is closer to a 3.60-3.80.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'm surprised with Workman over Hembree.

What do you think the tipping point was?

(Please, no "Hembree Sucks" answers)

What if that is the answer?

Seriously, though, it's not so much that he sucks, it's that he sucks in a specific way, and that way seems like a poor match with the opponent they're facing.