Red Sox & Pablo Sandoval agree to 5 Year, $100 Millionish Deal
- Thread starter ScubaSteveAvery
- Start date
So if the Sox so value third basemen with an OPS in the 730s and a 3.4 WAR, why exactly weren't they aggressively pursuing Martin Prado when the Diamondbacks were trying to dump his salary at the trade deadline? The man was seen as declining and overpriced and yet he put up nearly identical numbers to a 28 year old Panda - at age 31. A few months later Panda is a $20 Million player and Prado (his skinny older twin) is all of a sudden a steal at 2 years 22 million. Absolutely ridiculous...
Yes there is. It's most definitely a lot harder to put up a .730 OPS at age 31. With Pablo's steady declines the last three years god only knows what Pablo will be hitting at that age...BornToRun said:
You're right, his raw OPS numbers should look better in Boston but the park itself hasn't changed. Is there a reasonable explanation as to why Sandoval's ISO the last two seasons have been the lowest of his career? Even with the environment suppressing offense the decline has been real and significant.Papelbon's Poutine said:
They both put a 3.4 WAR as well. Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't WAR account for park effects?Papelbon's Poutine said:
People have different ways of loving the Red Sox. The punk ass attitude I see from people who think they have a superior way of loving the Red Sox is about as pathetic as it gets. I just picture Comic Book Guy from the Simpsons with a quota to meet for smug comments. Oh, the Simpsons reference is no coincidence.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/parkadjust.shtml has one description of their use in a particular circumstance.OptimusPapi said:
More generally, pretty much every modern stat tries very hard to account for how hard or easy it is to hit in a particular park.
If you hit for the same OPS for the Padres (who play in a very pitcher friendly park) as someone who hits for the Rockies (whose stadium favors batters), you'll have quite different offensive WAR, EQA, or other modern stats: the batter in the Padres park will be ranked higher for the same baseline stats. Same thing for pitchers, if your basic stat line is the same, the guy pitching in Coors will have a better ERA+ or pitcher WAR than the guy in San Diego.
That link had some specifics; those vary a bit, but the basic idea is that statisticians aren't dumb and they try very hard to account for the park difference (and league variance and other factors) when designing modem stats meant to use to compare various players.
If you haven't taken the time to learn how those stats are computed, you should do that. And you should probably refrain from commenting on them until you learn about them.
Welcome Panda
Sandoval appears to be a pull-hitter from each side of the plate (BrooksBaseball spray charts by pitcher handedness). Sandoval's 2014 from AT&T Park superimposed on Fenway shows him with power to both right and left fields (using katron.org).
Are those left-field hits going to be wall balls or Bucky Denters? Does Sandoval get much loft on his flyballs?
Sandoval appears to be a pull-hitter from each side of the plate (BrooksBaseball spray charts by pitcher handedness). Sandoval's 2014 from AT&T Park superimposed on Fenway shows him with power to both right and left fields (using katron.org).
Are those left-field hits going to be wall balls or Bucky Denters? Does Sandoval get much loft on his flyballs?
I don't hate Sandoval but he simply isn't an elite talent - in any realm. Last year most of his value came from his defense, and yet there are certainly some reasons to be concerned about his mobility as he ages. Meanwhile his bat has been in a steady decline. If the Sox were getting him on one of their 3/$39 million dollars deals, then sure, why not? But for a 20 Million a year deal? When the team no longer even needs a third baseman? It's insane...
Maybe his point was that an intelligent, informed argument can be made without insulting or being snarky with other posters.
Well love of the Red Sox could lead to love of educating people who lack certain knowledge of the Sox or baseball in general. Thank you SumnerH. Is there a way to figure out Pandas line if he played in Fenway last year?
Laughed my ass off! I was thinking during the WS how very much I really wanted the Panda, but in reality if we really committed $190 million to the left side of the infield today that's a little scary. If Henry keeps going on Lester and another couple of quality arms I'm in, though.Snodgrass'Muff said:
It's an Internet message board. We don't work for the Red Sox....all our pie graphs and fangraph references mean nothing to BC. You really need to get a grip and realize that even when someone posts a non-researched opinion it means nothing in the grand scheme of things.Papelbon's Poutine said:
Most of your posts are basically condescending stabs at other fans of your favorite team. Why? Because they don't channel their inner Dave Cameron for every little pontification they make about a team they have no control over. Get a grip.
I'd buy a beer for pretty much anyone who told me they love the sox enough to pay for membership here....but I get the impression I would feel the urge to dump one on your head.
You seem to love being an asshole more than you love the entertainment of following the Red Sox.
kazuneko said:
His bat hasn't really been in steady decline. He was a 118 wRC+ hitter in 2012 and 116 in 2013. That's basically the same guy for those two years. He was down a touch to 111 this year, but that could absolutely be normal variation. Sure, it's down from the 146 he posted in 2009 or the 149 from 2012, but it's the same range as his brief stint in 2008. He's a bit up and down from year to year, but he's demonstrated the ability to hit at a very high level in some years, and his floor appears to be a league average bat when he has a down year. Most seasons he should come in somewhere in between so I would be comfortable guess he'll be something in the neighborhood of a 115-120 wRC+ or OPS+ hitter for the Sox in the next two or three years. Would 5/102 be an overpay? Yeah, probably. But having Pablo and Hanley in the lineup together means this team is a couple of starting pitchers and a high end reliever from being one of the odds on favorites to make it to the World Series over the next two or three seasons, so I think it's worth it even if I can't bring myself to ignore Sandoval's warts.
OptimusPapi said:
You don't really need to figure out his line if he had played in Fenway. Just look at park and league adjusted numbers like OPS+ or wRC+. wRC+ had him as a 111 hitter, which is 11% better than league average. His numbers at Fenway would have been somewhere in that range.
This is absolutely true. Especially when it comes to rookies and minor leaguers, there's a lot of value in scouting reports and subjective judgements over statistical arguments, and those are generally well accepted. And there's no reason that everyone needs to become a stats genius to appreciate baseball.CaskNFappin said:
Even some of the numerically based critics like Jnai and Sprowl mix a lot of personal observing into their discussions-go and read the evaluations of someone like Henry Owens to see the disagreement between straight stats and traditional scouting mixed in interesting manners.
At the same time, if someone does post a statistical argument them you should have a baseline understanding of that stat before debating it. It's not that one method of evaluation is the only way to look at things, but out you're going to say "hey, left field in Fenway is different from Petco" you should know when the stat you're arguing with already acknowledged that difference and tried to account for it.
It's then fair to argue that the correction was wrong: we saw that with UZR and Fenway's weird left field in recent years. And that correction has changed since then, reasonably. But don't start from the position that nobody had thought of the issue at all before without taking a few minutes to learn about things.
He is like a Big Papi-lite for me.
Nowhere near the hitter David is, but all that intangibles, energy, presence and clutchness in postseason. And as a bonus, he plays solid D.
Again, I wouldnt have given him this contract, if this report is indeed true.
We need two A SPs. If Panda signing is true, then we can expect to acquire one via trade.
Nowhere near the hitter David is, but all that intangibles, energy, presence and clutchness in postseason. And as a bonus, he plays solid D.
Again, I wouldnt have given him this contract, if this report is indeed true.
We need two A SPs. If Panda signing is true, then we can expect to acquire one via trade.
Clutchness aside, this is a terrible signing. All the funny panda hats in the world at the intersection of Yawkey and Van Ness won't make Sandoval worth twenty million per year.
Please, please no.
Please, please no.
Usually you don't adjust to a park, you adjust from where you played to the league average park and compare everyone there. That's what OPS+ and EQA and the like try to do. I'll try to post a more involved response later this week when I'm not on my phone and have more time.OptimusPapi said:
We really should have wiki/primer on this. I'll try to get that started.
Even with established vets, scouting can trump stats. We had a case 4 or so years ago where a poster spotted a pitcher tipping his pitches, and rumor was that the Sox saw that post and corrected his motion. Anyone remember the details?
That's a big deal that a million years running ERA+ and k/9 through spreadsheets won't find.
That's a big deal that a million years running ERA+ and k/9 through spreadsheets won't find.
I want to say alannathan spotted it but I could be wrong. He is definitely someone who's had amazing non-statistical insights at times, though also understands the stats.
As much as I hate to see the Giants lose out on Panda, I am fascinated to see how people react to him. I suspect there will be a lot of hatred.DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Sandoval's going to hate the Red Sox. He doesn't think he will, but he loves being loved, and that's never going to happen in Boston.
I dunno, the Sox fanbase has long held big jovial guys in high esteem. I can think of George Scott, Mo Vaughn,and now Papi who were all loved by the majority of the fans. I would add, if this team is as talented as they appear to be, there may not be much to gripe about.gaelgirl said:
Might be the #1 greatest moment in SOSH history, at least when it comes to our internet nonsense actually helping the team in real life.67WasBest said:
67WasBest said:
I think his defense is going to go a long way in the early goings. He's a very good defender right now, and if he doesn't fall off a cliff there he's going to make some really impressive plays that people are going to love. Remember how crazy people went over Adrian Beltre's glove? Granted, Sandoval's bat won't be at that level, but having a smooth defender at the hot corner is going to make a lot of people very happy. If he can put up a 115 OPS+/wRC+ with well above average defense, the fans will embrace him.
If he really is a pull-hitter from each side of the plate that really wouldn't seem to make him a good match for Fenway. He is just not much of a hitter from the right side (.563 OPS in 2014), so while it's good that Fenway might improve that a bit, it's not like we should be expecting him to be pulling a lot of homers over the wall. Obviously his strength is from the left-side - but as a pull-hitting lefty Fenway's deep right field isn't going to help..
Rumor was the Giants started at 5/90 and that the Padres exceeded that. If 5/102 is accurate I guess all the critics of the offer must think Sabean and Preller and Cherington are all stupider than them. I want to wait and get the back stories to all this because, if true, there's some major dealing going on.
Edit: and the general consensus was ultimately more than 5 years, right?
Edit: and the general consensus was ultimately more than 5 years, right?
This seems like the sort of contract the interest in him suggested, combined with the fairly dramatic wage inflation that is happening.
I hate the deal and I'm totally bemused as to what is happening given the Hanley reports.
I was all in on Hanley > Panda when assuming Hanley was happy to play short. I did, however, assume Hanley would be cheaper in years and per year. Years in particular. So at the rumoured numbers I am a bit less on the Hanley please camp, but I really don't understand both unless Napoli or X is heading out of town.
If it's X and Hanley is going to play SS, I'm going to throw up. If it's Napoli I guess Panda plays 1st and I'm not sure what the upgrade is.
I hate the deal and I'm totally bemused as to what is happening given the Hanley reports.
I was all in on Hanley > Panda when assuming Hanley was happy to play short. I did, however, assume Hanley would be cheaper in years and per year. Years in particular. So at the rumoured numbers I am a bit less on the Hanley please camp, but I really don't understand both unless Napoli or X is heading out of town.
If it's X and Hanley is going to play SS, I'm going to throw up. If it's Napoli I guess Panda plays 1st and I'm not sure what the upgrade is.
LondonSox said:
Having read through the lengthy discussions about Hanley, wouldn't it seem to be the case that he's going to be the 3B only if Sandoval isn't signed? Otherwise, all the indications would be that Hanley is going to be familiarizing himself with the Monster out in LF, with Sandoval playing 3B until he becomes too fat / out of condition to do so. So I think the upgrade here is adding a capable, slightly above league average bat at 3B (Sandoval) where the Sox were previously well below average, and a top quality bat into LF (Hanley). Assuming that some form of trade then takes place to thin the outfield corps and add a little pitching, the net effect is a significant upgrade as a whole. I don't see Napoli going anywhere this season, or Xander moving away from SS for a couple of years.
If I had to guess how this plays out (and assuming Sandoval does sign), the end result is an starting outfield of Hanley - Castillo - Betts / Victorino, with Cespedes as a rather luxurious 5th OF. That would suggest JBJ is headed to Pawtucket until injuries strike, and that there's perhaps no home for Craig or Nava (although the OF becomes a bit too right-handed without him). Craig may end up as the backup 1B, if he shows signs of life in Spring Training, although Nava could equally be the 1B backup too, with a few OF reps thrown in. Alternatively, Cespedes is traded and there's a place for Nava or Craig in the OF mix instead.
Looking ahead a couple of seasons, I'm inclined to think that Hanley makes LF his long-term home - helping him to stay healthy and productive with the bat. Sandoval plays 3B for a season or so, and then perhaps has to migrate across to 1B to replace Napoli and sees increasing time at DH when Ortiz calls it quits (I realise this damages the value of his bat - maybe less time at 3B will help him hit better, as it did for Youk a few years ago). Xander ends up at 3B in the long term, with SS filled from within the minors. So I can see how the addition of both Sandoval and Hanley makes sense, although the front office probably has a way better plan than my vague wishcasting.
Why wouldn't they just move Cespedes and make Nava the 4th OF, rotating the LH bat in through all three positions by having Betts take CF on Castillo's off days?LondonSox said:
I see zero chance they're looking to put Hanley in at shortstop. Their interest started when he said he'd play elsewhere. The fact that they're going after Sandoval still says they think Hanley needs to go to the OF.
I'll wait for more specific terms on Sandoval. I wouldn't be surprised if it is 5/$102M max with a lot of bonus money carrying it north of $100M as long as he keeps his weight down and stays healthy. That or it could actually be 6 years. Need more corroboration before even the terms can be entirely trusted.
Ah, come on. The Schilling chat was a communal effortSille Skrub said:
I've had the irrational worry that Panda (if signed) would be Crawford V2.0; not because of similarities in their game, but as big contracts that didn't fit the type of player the Sox normally spend $ on.
The bottom line is that the Sox make too much money to not use that advantage in FA, and thentupe of position players we would feel good about them spending large amounts on aren't available.
His performance is what will ultimately dictate if the fans love him, so here's hop he comes out of the gate strong.
I'm with you on the fact that this signals that we'll end up with a starting OF of Ramirez, Castillo and Betts. I don't agree that Sandoval ends up at DH because his bat isn't good enough and a significant part of his value comes from his defense. I see a 5 man OF of the three starters plus Victorino and Nava. Nava can platoon with Castillo if he struggles against righties while Betts moves to CF in that scenario. In the IF, we have Sandoval, Xander, Pedroia and Napoli. Our backups are Holt and Middlebrooks.
On the 40 man we have Cecchini who will come up if there's an IF injury and JBJ if there's an outfield injury. Even when they come up, they'll only be backing up the backups. This looks like deep depth to me.
On the pitching side, I think we end up with Lester first. Then we package Cespedes plus a young starter like Workman for someone like Cueto or Shark. That gives us Lester, #2, Buchholz, Kelly and one of the kids as the starting five. The long man is the kid who misses out. Take your pick. I think Webster takes 5 and Ranaudo ends up as the long man/first back up. Rubby goes to the pen, where he joins Tazawa, Koji, Mujica, Hembree, Layne and Escobar. There's obviously room to add a stud like Miller and give Escobar more seasoning in AAA.
We would still have an excess of pitching in the minors with Owens, Barnes and Johnson ready to step up. One of them replaces Buchholz if he stinks up the joint this year and we don't pick up his '16 option.
The only one I've left out is Craig because it's a real mystery what his current value is. If he bounces back then he's Napoli's replacement. If he sucks, I see him as a prime DFA candidate.
The rotation might look a bit weak but there's room for the FA to play around there, maybe BMc instead of a trade for a #2 and Cespedes goes for a 1B prospect instead, which we need because the system is really thin on 1B kids. But either way, we will need to play our kids and see which one's good enough to start and which one isn't. We will need the payroll flexibility that comes from having lots of cost-controlled players on the roster. I'm hoping we can graduate four or five young pitchers this year because guys like Webster and Rubby are too good for AAA but haven't had enough time in the majors.
On the 40 man we have Cecchini who will come up if there's an IF injury and JBJ if there's an outfield injury. Even when they come up, they'll only be backing up the backups. This looks like deep depth to me.
On the pitching side, I think we end up with Lester first. Then we package Cespedes plus a young starter like Workman for someone like Cueto or Shark. That gives us Lester, #2, Buchholz, Kelly and one of the kids as the starting five. The long man is the kid who misses out. Take your pick. I think Webster takes 5 and Ranaudo ends up as the long man/first back up. Rubby goes to the pen, where he joins Tazawa, Koji, Mujica, Hembree, Layne and Escobar. There's obviously room to add a stud like Miller and give Escobar more seasoning in AAA.
We would still have an excess of pitching in the minors with Owens, Barnes and Johnson ready to step up. One of them replaces Buchholz if he stinks up the joint this year and we don't pick up his '16 option.
The only one I've left out is Craig because it's a real mystery what his current value is. If he bounces back then he's Napoli's replacement. If he sucks, I see him as a prime DFA candidate.
The rotation might look a bit weak but there's room for the FA to play around there, maybe BMc instead of a trade for a #2 and Cespedes goes for a 1B prospect instead, which we need because the system is really thin on 1B kids. But either way, we will need to play our kids and see which one's good enough to start and which one isn't. We will need the payroll flexibility that comes from having lots of cost-controlled players on the roster. I'm hoping we can graduate four or five young pitchers this year because guys like Webster and Rubby are too good for AAA but haven't had enough time in the majors.
Apisith said:
And that's perhaps the main fear I have of this deal for Sandoval. I just can't see his body staying at 3B more than a couple of seasons, unless the Sox have a genius plan to get him to lose 50 pounds and understand physical conditioning. It would be fantastic if that could happen, as it would maximise his value and ensure that his natural fielding skills are well used for as long as possible, but I'm not hopeful it will be the case based on his track record to date. It's unlikely that the Sox will find another pure DH to replace Ortiz and his production (given the general power shortage in MLB that has been widely discussed here), so perhaps it'll be a case of replacing Ortiz with complementary pieces, rather than directly. I think Sandoval could be part of that mix, maybe with Hanley spending some time at DH too come 2016 and beyond.
Honestly I had a thought this morning about this. In a vacuum it doesn't make sense to downgrade from Cespedes and Hanley to Panda and Hanley unless of course they have a deal already lined up for Cespedes to Philadelphia for Hamels. Financially if you trade Cespedes and Buchholz for Hamels then the Sox finances for the next few years are roughly the same if they were to extend Cespedes and then keep picking up Buchholz option.
That being said this lineup is going to be a hell of a lot better than last year. Ramirez wants to be here and never wanted to leave, Lester wants to be here and hopefully returns and Panda is a great clubhouse guy and a professional that can switch to first once Devers is ready. I'd rather slightly overpay at 5 years than give current market rate at 7. This isn't Crawford it's much more acceptable.
That being said this lineup is going to be a hell of a lot better than last year. Ramirez wants to be here and never wanted to leave, Lester wants to be here and hopefully returns and Panda is a great clubhouse guy and a professional that can switch to first once Devers is ready. I'd rather slightly overpay at 5 years than give current market rate at 7. This isn't Crawford it's much more acceptable.