R1/3: Drake Maye QB UNC

Eddie Jurak

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Why does he have to clearly outplay a veteran who has started multiple games in the league in order to play? If his baseline of performance is current Jacoby Brissett, throw him out there. If that's who he is day 1 that's a slam dunk. I really don't believe in the idea that guys that would have been great players get ruined by starting too soon. Maybe guys who could be adequate starters never reach that level, but if by September, 2024 Drake Maye is at Jacoby Brissett level, he should get every snap he can.
Even after a traning camp, Maye will be less of a known quantity than Brissett. Bringing QBs along slowly has worked well in several cases, Maye has a lot of work to do, so it just makes sense to me to start Brissett unless Maye shows you he's really ready.
 

Kull

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As far as starting as a rookie, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers redshirted.
Listening to the Belichick breakdown, all his criticisms are, "hasn't played enough" and "not enough experience". That doesn't mean, "throw him to the NFL wolves", but spend that first year learning what the NFL is all about and work on fixing what can be fixed. The Patriots have too many holes and are going to be bad again next year. Hopefully lousy enough to get a real LT to protect Maye when he takes the reins in '25.
 

Jimbodandy

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Terrible team? They started 6-0
Not terrible weapons either
Yeah data doesn't support what you're saying really.

Just looking at the top 6 QBs already taken and using the Drafttek rankings in Google (not perfect but a convenient list form), a proxy for both "good team" and "good weapons" is how many teammates are projected to get drafted in the top 100/200.

All counts inclusive of the QB:
Williams USC (5 top 200, 3 top 100)
Daniels LSU (5 top 200, 4 top 100)
Maye UNC (3 top 200, 2 top 100)
Penix Washington (10 top 200, 8 top 100)
McCarthy Michigan (10 top 200, 6 top 100)
Nix Oregon (7 top 200, 4 top 100)

Penix and McCarthy played on absolutely stacked teams. Maye played with two other guys who will likely play on Sundays in the future, only one on offense (Tez). The others will have multiple college teammates in the pros too.

Nobody is saying that Maye came out of Holy Cross or North Idaho State, but he had by far the least pro ready teammate group among the QBs drafted in the first round.
 

DJnVa

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Yeah data doesn't support what you're saying really.

Just looking at the top 6 QBs already taken and using the Drafttek rankings in Google (not perfect but a convenient list form), a proxy for both "good team" and "good weapons" is how many teammates are projected to get drafted in the top 100/200.

All counts inclusive of the QB:
Williams USC (5 top 200, 3 top 100)
Daniels LSU (5 top 200, 4 top 100)
Maye UNC (3 top 200, 2 top 100)
Penix Washington (10 top 200, 8 top 100)
McCarthy Michigan (10 top 200, 6 top 100)
Nix Oregon (7 top 200, 4 top 100)

Penix and McCarthy played on absolutely stacked teams. Maye played with two other guys who will likely play on Sundays in the future, only one on offense (Tez). The others will have multiple college teammates in the pros too.

Nobody is saying that Maye came out of Holy Cross or North Idaho State, but he had by far the least pro ready teammate group among the QBs drafted in the first round.
And one of the UNC ones missed half the season because the NCAA does NCAA things.
 

MuellerMen

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I’m admittedly bitter bc I watched every game jj played and love the player…and believe his leadership and character is off the charts. I think we fucked up but I’ve been wrong plenty
Re the bolded, it's crazy but that's how I feel as well. I was on, and am still kinda hanging onto, the Drake Maye wagon but feeling some buyer's remorse. But I'm no expert, and I certainly hope I'm wrong in every possible way.
 

uncannymanny

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Listening to the Belichick breakdown, all his criticisms are, "hasn't played enough" and "not enough experience". That doesn't mean, "throw him to the NFL wolves", but spend that first year learning what the NFL is all about and work on fixing what can be fixed. The Patriots have too many holes and are going to be bad again next year. Hopefully lousy enough to get a real LT to protect Maye when he takes the reins in '25.
Those weren’t all the criticisms. He also said he is too quick to leave the pocket, isn’t reading well enough to hit NFL-open receivers and his footwork is a mess.
 

SoxFanInPdx

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I've been high on Maye and I think the only one I liked a tiny bit more was Daniels, but that's because I watch predominantly SEC and PAC-12 (RIP). Maye has all the tools and metrics that are easy to fall in love with and he reminds me a lot of Bledsoe when I watched him play at WSU. Great character guy and is a leader. Watched a handful of his games last season and UNC just didn't have the talent for the most part and still put up those numbers. Yeah, there are some things he can clean up on, but they can be fixed with some reps and good coaching. I wonder, barring Brady coming back to some team, if he'd be willing to spend some time with Maye and help in the development process.

I'm thrilled they didn't get cute with this pick and took him. I can't wait to see him play, but redshirting him behind Brissett is the smart play imo. Let him learn and witness the major difference between the college and pro level. I liked JJ a lot as well, but he's hard to gauge with the crazy talent he had at Michigan. Finally, this team has some juice and something to be excited about. The bad taste of Mac can't go away soon enough.
 

bakahump

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So does this mean he’s gonna absolutely kill us in November?
No. it means his nickname will be "The Assassin".

And if alot of the info in this thread is to be believed at NC last year he was the "Lone Gunman".
 

Deathofthebambino

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Yeah data doesn't support what you're saying really.

Just looking at the top 6 QBs already taken and using the Drafttek rankings in Google (not perfect but a convenient list form), a proxy for both "good team" and "good weapons" is how many teammates are projected to get drafted in the top 100/200.

All counts inclusive of the QB:
Williams USC (5 top 200, 3 top 100)
Daniels LSU (5 top 200, 4 top 100)
Maye UNC (3 top 200, 2 top 100)
Penix Washington (10 top 200, 8 top 100)
McCarthy Michigan (10 top 200, 6 top 100)
Nix Oregon (7 top 200, 4 top 100)

Penix and McCarthy played on absolutely stacked teams. Maye played with two other guys who will likely play on Sundays in the future, only one on offense (Tez). The others will have multiple college teammates in the pros too.

Nobody is saying that Maye came out of Holy Cross or North Idaho State, but he had by far the least pro ready teammate group among the QBs drafted in the first round.

That's not even taking into account the coaching disparity among those teams, with UNC.

I've been on the Maye wagon here for over a year, so I couldn't be happier today. Only question now is do they sit him for a year, tank next season with Jacoby, and then build around Maye in the 2025 draft before giving him the ball.
 

lexrageorge

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Those weren’t all the criticisms. He also said he is too quick to leave the pocket, isn’t reading well enough to hit NFL-open receivers and his footwork is a mess.
Regarding the bolded, Belichick started the segment comparing the footwork and vision of Brady and Manning against Williams, Daniels, and May, and showing how all 3 will need to fix a few things to be successful in the NFL. He made the "NFL open" comment for both Daniels and Williams as well.

The one concerning comment about Maye was the "lowest rated pocket passer", but the youth and clear lack of experience could be the issue there.
 

Auger34

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I’m admittedly bitter bc I watched every game jj played and love the player…and believe his leadership and character is off the charts. I think we fucked up but I’ve been wrong plenty
I think JJ and the Patriots both ended up way better off with what actually happened.

Minnesota is a great situation.

I think New England would have been the absolute worst outcome for JJ. He'd be constantly in the shadow of Brady to the media and a segment of the fanbase (Michigan connection). The Patriots don't have much offensive talent surrounding him and he'd have to evolve to more than a game manager with basically no experience of doing it in college.
 

rodderick

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The whole "receivers won't be as open in the NFL" stuff regarding Maye is a little silly because out of all the first round guys he challenged tight windows the most and had the worst weapons around him.
 

Jimbodandy

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That's not even taking into account the coaching disparity among those teams, with UNC.

I've been on the Maye wagon here for over a year, so I couldn't be happier today. Only question now is do they sit him for a year, tank next season with Jacoby, and then build around Maye in the 2025 draft before giving him the ball.
Woot.

I'm not sure that they have to make that call today or even in August. See how Maye looks. See how the OL comes together, what the receiver group looks like. Watch him through practice both in preseason and as the season progresses. When the time is right, put him in. Whether that's week 5, week 10, or 2025 is TBD.
 

dynomite

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Regarding the bolded, Belichick started the segment comparing the footwork and vision of Brady and Manning against Williams, Daniels, and May, and showing how all 3 will need to fix a few things to be successful in the NFL. He made the "NFL open" comment for both Daniels and Williams as well.

The one concerning comment about Maye was the "lowest rated pocket passer", but the youth and clear lack of experience could be the issue there.
Sorry to repost the Lazar breakdown, but I feel a lot better about this after reading his breakdown and watching the film.

To me, there are "lowest rated pocket passers" and "lowest rated pocket passers," if that makes sense? In other words, from what I saw Mac Jones will always be a limited pocket passer because he simply doesn't have the arm strength to hit his guys, especially when he needs to step up in a collapsing pocket and not be able to put his full body into the throw.

Maye, on the other hand, has an incredible arm and is able to hit the throws. He has all the tools needed to be an outstanding pocket passer, he just needs help processing and reading coverages and being more consistent with his footwork.

Edited to add: And note, even without perfect footwork, his arm is so good that he can STILL hit throws and throw spirals! Which, to me, bodes very well for a QB who needs to expect to play in rain and snow with collapsing pockets. Maybe he never realizes the potential, but if I can only draft one pitcher to anchor my rotation, I'd rather draft a pitcher who throws 100mph and needs to control it than one who tops out at 92mph, if that makes sense.

The other area that makes Maye an intriguing fit for the Patriots is that he excels at throwing the ball between the numbers, both driving it and layering throws around defenders.
North Carolina took advantage by having Maye throw a high number of in-breaking routes, such as crossers and dig patterns, where he was often on time and sharp reading out coverage. For a Pats offense that wants to incorporate play-action and attack between the numbers, these aspects of the Tar Heels offense under OC Chip Lindsey were pro-style in nature.
When the Heels anticipated man coverage, Maye thrived making NFL-style middle of the field throws by reading leverage/help defenders to find single coverage to keep the offense moving.
Here's video of a lovely, accurate, ~25 yard throw zipped from the pocket:

https://x.com/NDraft202488294/status/1777707858504630751

Here's another one. Lazar says this:

Here, Pittsburgh is in a similar man coverage structure, with the gun-action fake freezing the second level for a split second. That gives Maye's slot receiver to his left a clear runway on a crossing route, and Maye's feet are in sync to hit the moving target with precise ball location.
To me, as someone who knows maybe 1% as much as Lazar about breaking down game film, I'll also add what I LOVE about this throw here is that Maye has to a) recognize where outside pressure is coming from and step up in the pocket to buy time (but DOESN'T get moved left, because he correctly recognizes his guys are holding up), b) has his own OL in his face, so he can't quite step into the throw, and c) still deliver a perfectly thrown ball to a WR 25ish yards downfield in a tight window. And boom -- nailed it.

View: https://twitter.com/NDraft202488294/status/1777708074708418707


And finally, re: footwork, a key thing to note is that Maye changed his footwork last year under the coaching at UNC. As Lazar says:

According to Lindsey, the North Carolina coaching staff that took over the offense for the 2023 season changed Maye's footwork. Before his arrival, Maye used a backpedal technique in his drops. Under Lindsey, they switched that to the more pro-style footwork....
The shift to traditional footwork in his drop-backs could explain why it's such a work in progress for Maye as he enters the league. In many instances, Maye's drop-back timing seemed out of sync with the route concept, throwing off the play's rhythm, leading to sprays....
Admittedly, these reps are ugly for Maye: his feet are all over the place. However, footwork is easier to fix than other potentially fatal flaws for quarterbacks. Plus, when you put it in context that Maye was learning new footwork, per Lindsey, on the fly, it's more excusable.
To be successful as a QB in the modern NFL, Lazar compellingly argues you now need the tools, athletic skills, and demonstrated ability to be able to play "one, two, make a play" football.

Mahomes, most famously, can do that. Josh Allen can do that. Lamar Jackson can do that. CJ Stroud can do that. Burrow, Lawrence, Herbert have shown the ability to do that.

The Patriots finally have a QB who has the skills to do that. Whether he does is another question -- at least he can. We'll just have to wait until 2025 & 2026 to see if he does it consistently at this level.

Edit:

And I can't help myself, but compare some of these Maye throws with Mac last year, in a breakdown by Kurt Warner. Sure, you can say "Oh, well Mac was broken by then," or whatever, but the fact remains: he just couldn't hit these throws. Even from a clean pocket, even when WRs were running good routes.

At ~1:55-2:15, watch Mac a) get a completely clean pocket, b) ignore not one but two better options at the bottom of the screen, c) fixate on his first read at the top of the screen, and d) sail a simple 10 yard throw over the guy's head. At 7:56, watch as Mac sails a pass from a clean pocket to a WR ~20 yards downfield.

I don't mean to kick Mac as he's out the door and not exactly a relevant comparison anymore, but I think it's important to recognize why many of us never thought Mac had the arm strength to be successful long-term at the NFL level, and why we're so excited about Maye's arm talent.

View: https://youtu.be/gp7PwhUpNCc
 
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astrozombie

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Re: Belichick's comments, this is the same guy who thought that Mac Jones was worth a first round pick and Jimmy G was the future (Cam got Covid and that was the end of him and Zappe was the last resort option, so I am excluding them). So either Bill is fallible, or he knows everything and inexplicably drafted future disaster Mac Jones anyway, a move so bad that it ultimately cost him his job after 20 years of unprecedented success. I'm guessing it's the former, since QB has a giant variance that is dependent on a lot of things (Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love are good starters while higher picks Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson and Kenny Pickett are already backups on new teams). Point being that I am not going to take Bill's criticism on some aspects of Maye as "this guy sucks".
Also, I don't follow enough college football to know whether Maye is going to be great or a bust. But I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, just like I gave Bloom for the Sox and Mac before turning on them when it seemed like they weren't making things better a few years in. Reading some of these posts, there are a lot of "well, Maye sucks at [x]" or "he needs to clean up [100] things if he is going to be any good". It's like people are nitpicking so if Maye does go bust, there will be this huge "gotcha!" moment. It's weird. The Pats drafted Maye, I would hope they have a plan for him (starting, sitting, developing, coaching, getting more offensive help, whatever) and will develop him. I'm willing to wait to see how he is after next year vs "he had a bad game against a mid opponent one time in college and therefore I think he is hot garbage".
 

CFB_Rules

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He's a real smart kid and was always polite to the officials, which of course is super important.

His coaching in college was virtually nonexistent. I'll be rooting for him.
 

astrozombie

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I assumed it was a joke. Looks like at some point last night someone changed his wiki. And one of the top google hits was an Ale SoSH post!
I forget which mid 2010s Bruins player it was (I think Brandon Bochenski), but someone had edited his wiki to say that he was a member of the Bruins and Gotham's reckoning. I was always amused at that. Also, turns out according to Wikipedia he's now the mayor of Grand Forks, ND.
 

Ale Xander

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Yeah data doesn't support what you're saying really.

Just looking at the top 6 QBs already taken and using the Drafttek rankings in Google (not perfect but a convenient list form), a proxy for both "good team" and "good weapons" is how many teammates are projected to get drafted in the top 100/200.

All counts inclusive of the QB:
Williams USC (5 top 200, 3 top 100)
Daniels LSU (5 top 200, 4 top 100)
Maye UNC (3 top 200, 2 top 100)
Penix Washington (10 top 200, 8 top 100)
McCarthy Michigan (10 top 200, 6 top 100)
Nix Oregon (7 top 200, 4 top 100)

Penix and McCarthy played on absolutely stacked teams. Maye played with two other guys who will likely play on Sundays in the future, only one on offense (Tez). The others will have multiple college teammates in the pros too.

Nobody is saying that Maye came out of Holy Cross or North Idaho State, but he had by far the least pro ready teammate group among the QBs drafted in the first round.
Don't move the goalposts. I wasn't arguing on a relative basis vs. the top QB's, just vs. rest of the FBS/P5 teams. I fully agree that Penix, MccCarthy and Daniels had more stacked offenses/teams

Also just going by who's entering the draft this year isn't everything.
 

rodderick

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Watching some videos of Maye from yesterday and today and the vibes are off the charts with this kid. Love how genuine and confident he sounds. Of course, means jack shit if he can't play, but seems like the mentality and the personality are there.
 

Cellar-Door

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The suit is a nice one, and no belt is the way to go on a custom suit, especially a lightweight one.

Problems are... suit was not tailored to be worn with those shoes, the color of the shirt/tie is not great with a cream/yellow suit, and he has too much crap in his pockets.
Also button the suit unless sitting down.
 

Auger34

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I still can't believe that he's Luke Maye's brother.

Drake is a good looking kid and Luke looks like he's trying to audition to be a GEICO caveman
 

Auger34

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I think it's important to note that Maye is coming into what seems to be a good coaching infrastructure for a QB.

McAdoo and AVP are both highly respected (McAdoo especially). The talent on offense is pretty barren but I really like the coaching they have set up for him
 

lexrageorge

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Re: Belichick's comments, this is the same guy who thought that Mac Jones was worth a first round pick and Jimmy G was the future (Cam got Covid and that was the end of him and Zappe was the last resort option, so I am excluding them). So either Bill is fallible, or he knows everything and inexplicably drafted future disaster Mac Jones anyway, a move so bad that it ultimately cost him his job after 20 years of unprecedented success. I'm guessing it's the former, since QB has a giant variance that is dependent on a lot of things (Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love are good starters while higher picks Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson and Kenny Pickett are already backups on new teams). Point being that I am not going to take Bill's criticism on some aspects of Maye as "this guy sucks".
Also, I don't follow enough college football to know whether Maye is going to be great or a bust. But I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, just like I gave Bloom for the Sox and Mac before turning on them when it seemed like they weren't making things better a few years in. Reading some of these posts, there are a lot of "well, Maye sucks at [x]" or "he needs to clean up [100] things if he is going to be any good". It's like people are nitpicking so if Maye does go bust, there will be this huge "gotcha!" moment. It's weird. The Pats drafted Maye, I would hope they have a plan for him (starting, sitting, developing, coaching, getting more offensive help, whatever) and will develop him. I'm willing to wait to see how he is after next year vs "he had a bad game against a mid opponent one time in college and therefore I think he is hot garbage".
I believe you are misinterpreting Bill's assessment of Drake Maye. For every QB drafted, actually, every player drafted, Bill showed both the good plays and not-so-good plays each one made. He showed flaws in Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels as well. And he also pointed out the good plays that Maye made ("he can make every throw" comment was a point that really impressed Bill).

And, really, if anything, Belichick's biggest reservation was that Maye is simply young and inexperienced. Maye has thrown 942 passes in 26 games as a starter. For comparison:

Caleb Williams: 1099 passes in 37 games
Daniels: 1438 in 55 games
Penix: 1685 passes in 48 games
Bo Nix: 1936 passes in 61 games

And, FWIW,

Mac Jones: 543 passes in 25 games
 

rodderick

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I believe you are misinterpreting Bill's assessment of Drake Maye. For every QB drafted, actually, every player drafted, Bill showed both the good plays and not-so-good plays each one made. He showed flaws in Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels as well. And he also pointed out the good plays that Maye made ("he can make every throw" comment was a point that really impressed Bill).

And, really, if anything, Belichick's biggest reservation was that Maye is simply young and inexperienced. Maye has thrown 942 passes in 26 games as a starter. For comparison:

Caleb Williams: 1099 passes in 37 games
Daniels: 1438 in 55 games
Penix: 1685 passes in 48 games
Bo Nix: 1936 passes in 61 games

And, FWIW,

Mac Jones: 543 passes in 25 games
This is what Bill has historically said about every QB he believes to be dogshit. Was a favorite in pressers for Zach Wilson week.
 
Apr 7, 2006
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Jeremiah's Jordan Love comp to me is really spot on. They had very similar measurements and play styles, and if Maye ends up being what Love has shown he can be, I think we'll all be pretty happy with that. Hopefully Maye hits that level before Year 3 though.

I just don't see the Josh Allen comps. Allen was 15lb heavier and just had a different frame to him and a freak of an arm (Maye has a good arm, but Allen is just in a different class).

I do have faith in AVP and McAdoo as the right people to help Maye along. They've worked with a ton of QBs and it sounds like AVP is looking to implement more of the GB system than the Cleveland system, which works for me. Go get some more speed outside, a developmental LT, and maybe a Mekhi Becton to compete with Chuks for starting LT, and LFG.
Watching the Patriots.com livestream last night, I was interested to hear Paul Perillo reading from (I think) Daniel Jeremiah's descriptions of strengths and weaknesses for Josh Allen and Drake Maye. Both were basically identical.