This may not be the right place for this question, but I can't think of where else to ask it.
In Sunday's Gray Cup game, Calgary led Toronto by 8 (24-16) with 5 minutes left, and were driving for another touchdown to clinch the game. Calgary completes a pass, but the receiver fumbles on the 1. An Argo defender picks up the fumble on his own goal line and runs it 110 yards the other way (the length of a Canadian football field) for a TD - which, when followed by a 2 point convert, tied the game.
Later in the fourth quarter (53 seconds left) Toronto kicks a field goal. Calgary then storms back down the field, but are intercepted in the end zone with about 20 seconds left.
Obviously, the fumble/return and the interception had a huge impact on win probability. But how huge? Is there someplace I can go to find out? Help greatly appreciated!
In Sunday's Gray Cup game, Calgary led Toronto by 8 (24-16) with 5 minutes left, and were driving for another touchdown to clinch the game. Calgary completes a pass, but the receiver fumbles on the 1. An Argo defender picks up the fumble on his own goal line and runs it 110 yards the other way (the length of a Canadian football field) for a TD - which, when followed by a 2 point convert, tied the game.
Later in the fourth quarter (53 seconds left) Toronto kicks a field goal. Calgary then storms back down the field, but are intercepted in the end zone with about 20 seconds left.
Obviously, the fumble/return and the interception had a huge impact on win probability. But how huge? Is there someplace I can go to find out? Help greatly appreciated!