Putting the X in xwOBA

LoLsapien

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 5, 2022
199
While arguing that Xander is overpaid and not worth his contract I discovered that his wOBA has outperformed his xwOBA every single year of his career. Some years more than other years, but still, every single year since xwOBA started being calculated on FG (2015). Boston, Padres, doesn't matter.

Why might this be the case? What characteristics would cause a player to repeatedly over or underperform their xwOBA? Can xwOBA overperformance or under performance be predicted based on player characteristics? Can xwOBA be improved or is X an advanced stats breaking unicorn? I have no answers to these questions.

Here is a link to Xander's FG page: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/xander-bogaerts/12161/stats?position=SS

Here is a link to a description of xwOBA: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba

Thanks!