Producing Relief Pitchers

Vermonter At Large

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There are already bullpen threads floating around that discuss usage and/or in-game management, but the Sox organization hasn't produced a single quality relief pitcher from their farm system since Matt Barnes, nearly a decade ago. Seriously, that is incomprehensible - heck, they've probably drafted 100+ pitchers over that decade and signed at least as many international and domestic amateurs and not a single one has been converted to a late-inning (7th - 9th innings) quality relief pitcher? That decade transcends three front-office regimes as well. What am I missing? Discuss.
 

luckylatch

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I rarely post but I couldnt resist because I agree with your premise. But let me take it even further if you dont mind. Even Matt Barns was a washed out starter. You know who I long for? - Manny Delcarmen. In the 2007 World Series season he had an ERA+ of 233. In 6 cost controlled year he pitched almost 300 innings (292). Sure I may be biased because he was literally a home town kid but he was always a reliever, he did what he was asked, he produced at a low cost. Per Bob Lobel - " Why cant we get guys like this?"
 

Vermonter At Large

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It has to be organizational DNA, and frankly it's ugly. Changing the top echelons of Baseball Operations rarely effects much change at all to day-to-day operations. They aren't drafting pitchers well, and they certainly aren't developing them. It's hard to blame Cora for mishandling a bunch of retreads and reclamation projects. We could give Bloom a pass since this has been going on since at least the Cherington FO, but dammit he ought to KNOW that they aren't producing relievers and it IS his job to steer the organization toward sustainability. What percentage of total innings are now being accumulated by bullpens?
 

Bergs

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My best guess is that there is an analytics-based philosophy that since it's very hard to predict success in this realm, they don't try.

That said, what organizations are "good" at this? Aren't most relief aces "washed out starters"?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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My best guess is that there is an analytics-based philosophy that since it's very hard to predict success in this realm, they don't try.

That said, what organizations are "good" at this? Aren't most relief aces "washed out starters"?
Yes, absolutely.

I’d argue Bloom has been trying to draft towards that reality since his arrival. Spending little money on future relief conversion projects, several of whom have looked quite good in the minors so far.

Certainly not his fault it takes years for nearly all prospects to reach the bigs. We’ll see in the next year or so if any work out as intended.
 

LogansDad

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There are already bullpen threads floating around that discuss usage and/or in-game management, but the Sox organization hasn't produced a single quality relief pitcher from their farm system since Matt Barnes, nearly a decade ago. Seriously, that is incomprehensible - heck, they've probably drafted 100+ pitchers over that decade and signed at least as many international and domestic amateurs and not a single one has been converted to a late-inning (7th - 9th innings) quality relief pitcher? That decade transcends three front-office regimes as well. What am I missing? Discuss.
I'm too angry tonight to make coherent posts, but... welcome back!
 

JM3

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We have a lot of interesting relief arms in the system. They seem to be wholly opposed to putting any of them on the 40-man this year.

Kind of the same thing with catchers. Which is why we keep getting the disposable Lamet/Faria/Caleb Hamilton/Alfaro types.

I'd like to think they're hoarding resources for next year when they intend to push a lot of chips in & be firing on all cylinders & can be well over the cap & not be constrained in a lot of the same ways they are this year.

But it's certainly a frustrating & if they're still operating in this manner next year, I'll have bigger issues with it.
 

Fishercat

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I really wonder how common this is among good MLB teams to develop these guys at all. Looking even at good teams they seem to have maybe one or two guys they developed and most are failed SPs. You see so many more reclamation projects from other teams, or converted project pitchers, or their own guys who do better in the pen as opposed to wholesale developed RPs. A guy like Felix Bautista seems much rarer.

I do find it interesting how the Sox do seem to convert promising relievers and stretch them to starters, it makes sense but having 2021 Whitlock in the pen again would help a ton as opposed to what he’s doing now.
 

Vermonter At Large

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Good responses here, but at any given time there are 200+ relief pitchers on major league rosters, with perhaps 50 of them being quality late-innings guys so they're coming from somewhere. You'd think that even with ZERO intentional organizational effort, that the law of averages would work it's way out. Relief pitchers are getting more and more innings in MLB in each successive year. The larger payroll teams, including the Sox, have long relied on signing or trading for established relief pitchers, but those guys can be very expensive and the shelf life of a late-inning reliever (who may make 60+ appearances per year) is pretty short. In this light, you'd think that teams would be consciously developing a core of younger bullpen specialists rather than waiting for the Pivettas and Winckowskis of the world to become failed starter convertees. Other Teams must be doing this.
 

BaseballJones

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There are already bullpen threads floating around that discuss usage and/or in-game management, but the Sox organization hasn't produced a single quality relief pitcher from their farm system since Matt Barnes, nearly a decade ago. Seriously, that is incomprehensible - heck, they've probably drafted 100+ pitchers over that decade and signed at least as many international and domestic amateurs and not a single one has been converted to a late-inning (7th - 9th innings) quality relief pitcher? That decade transcends three front-office regimes as well. What am I missing? Discuss.
Here are guys that the Sox brought up recently that have been very good in the bullpen:

Houck - career relief stats: 53.2 ip, 2.68 era, 1.14 whip, 9.6 k/9
Whitlock - career relief stats: 121.1 ip, 2.60 era, 1.03 whip, 10.2 k/9
Winckowski - career relief stats: 71.0 ip, 3.30 era, 1.48 whip, 8.2 k/9

All three of those guys that the Sox brought up (Whitlock not for long as he came over from the Yankee organization but still) have been outstanding in relief for this team.

The thing is, they're trying to make Houck and Whitlock starters, which makes some sense obviously, but when they've been in relief roles, they've been awesome.
 

JM3

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Here are guys that the Sox brought up recently that have been very good in the bullpen:

Houck - career relief stats: 53.2 ip, 2.68 era, 1.14 whip, 9.6 k/9
Whitlock - career relief stats: 121.1 ip, 2.60 era, 1.03 whip, 10.2 k/9
Winckowski - career relief stats: 71.0 ip, 3.30 era, 1.48 whip, 8.2 k/9

All three of those guys that the Sox brought up (Whitlock not for long as he came over from the Yankee organization but still) have been outstanding in relief for this team.

The thing is, they're trying to make Houck and Whitlock starters, which makes some sense obviously, but when they've been in relief roles, they've been awesome.
Also Kutter Crawford - career relief stats: 37.2 ip, 3.35 era, 1.09 whip, 9.6 k/9
 

BaseballJones

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Also Kutter Crawford - career relief stats: 37.2 ip, 3.35 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.56 k/9
Yep, forgot about him. But he's pretty definitely going to be a rotation fixture for the foreseeable future. He's just been solid for them.
 

JM3

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Yep, forgot about him. But he's pretty definitely going to be a rotation fixture for the foreseeable future. He's just been solid for them.
I pretty strongly disagree actually. He's exactly what everyone complains Houck is.

As a starter this season...

Pitcher A
1st time through: 2.09 era, .246 wOBA
2nd time through 5.51 era, .346 wOBA
3rd time through: 9.00 era, .470 wOBA

Pitcher B
1st time through: 2.81 era, .269 wOBA
2nd time through 4.35 era, .344 wOBA
3rd time through: 11.48 era, .338 wOBA

Pitcher C
1st time through: 5.79 era, .339 wOBA
2nd time through 2.35 era, .224 wOBA
3rd time through: 11.17 era, .504 wOBA
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I think development of starters versus bullpen specialists is often guided by the needs of the big league team. The Sox have struggled for years to develop strong pitching of any kind, so it makes a lot of sense that they try to give their pitching prospects as much chance to make it as starters as they can. Is there a ton to gain having a guy develop exclusively as a short reliever when there are glaring holes in the rotation? An ace reliever doesn't have a ton of value if there aren't good pitchers to get the game to them with a chance to win.

Conventional wisdom has always been that guys can move from a starting role to the bullpen and get a boost, whether it's a simplification of pitch repetoire or shorter outings enabling them to "empty the tank" faster and throw harder to get a couple extra MPH. And as we've seen with pretty much all the recent young pitching that's come up (Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, etc), that conventional wisdom seems to hold true. They all have performed better in the bullpen. Should they all be relievers rather than starters? Probably not. Can't build a staff around 10 guys who only pitch 2-3 innings at a time.
 

Vermonter At Large

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Here are guys that the Sox brought up recently that have been very good in the bullpen:

Houck - career relief stats: 53.2 ip, 2.68 era, 1.14 whip, 9.6 k/9
Whitlock - career relief stats: 121.1 ip, 2.60 era, 1.03 whip, 10.2 k/9
Winckowski - career relief stats: 71.0 ip, 3.30 era, 1.48 whip, 8.2 k/9

All three of those guys that the Sox brought up (Whitlock not for long as he came over from the Yankee organization but still) have been outstanding in relief for this team.

The thing is, they're trying to make Houck and Whitlock starters, which makes some sense obviously, but when they've been in relief roles, they've been awesome.
Whitlock and Winckowski came from other organizations. Houck was a first-round pick from 2017. I'm not getting a "development" vibe here.
 

JM3

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Whitlock and Winckowski came from other organizations. Houck was a first-round pick from 2017. I'm not getting a "development" vibe here.
They have a whole bunch of guys in the system. I can get into details later if it would be helpful.
 

JM3

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If that is, in fact, the case then I will applaud Chaim Bloom for his genius. I eagerly await their arrival ...
I mean, I can't tell you if any of them will pan out, but there are definitely some interesting guys in the system - both guys who are starting now but profile better as relievers for various reasons such as lack of great secondary pitches, & guys who are already relief only players with pretty impressive stuff.

We shall see what happens over the next 2 years or so, though.
 

johnnywayback

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If that is, in fact, the case then I will applaud Chaim Bloom for his genius. I eagerly await their arrival ...
I don't think it's about genius. Developing prospects is hard, developing pitching prospects is harder, and I think the only answer is volume: you get a lot of guys with potential in your system and hope a few survive the numbers game. There's a handful of guys at the AA/AAA level right now who have potential: Ryan Fernandez, Luis Guerrero, Angel Bastardo, etc. The system has also produced guys like Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter who, while not likely to be closers, look like they'll be viable middle-innings or bulk relief guys.

You could argue that they'd be better off rushing guys like Fernandez up to the big leagues on the assumption that they only have so many bullets in the gun, and you could argue that they'd be better off pulling the trigger sooner on moving likely future relievers like Wikelman Gonzalez to the pen, but by and large I don't see a ton of room to quibble with the team's approach. It's just hard, is all.
 

Vermonter At Large

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So if you're discounting, "promoting a MiL pitcher who has spent a year or two in the org." as "development". . .what exactly qualifies as "development" for you?
Drafting or signing a guy as a minor league free agent, instructing them and carefully nurturing them for a few years across multiple levels of the organization, guiding them and enabling them to get the most out of their natural talent. Dumpster-diving for other organizations' rejects is not development.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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So if you're discounting, "promoting a MiL pitcher who has spent a year or two in the org." as "development". . .what exactly qualifies as "development" for you?
Whitlock’s “year or two in the org” was spring training. Winckowski qualifies, but he was a key player in a big trade and hoped to be a starter, so he probably falls more into the “failed starter” group, and certainly remains to be seen how impactful he will be for the Sox long term.
 

Fishy1

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Drafting or signing a guy as a minor league free agent, instructing them and carefully nurturing them for a few years across multiple levels of the organization, guiding them and enabling them to get the most out of their natural talent. Dumpster-diving for other organizations' rejects is not development.
Can't development happen after you've picked a guy up off the dumpster heap? How can you say they didn't help them make adjustments that made them into better big-league pitchers?

If you're going to make your own definition of "development," it's not going to surprise anyone if no one fits that definition.

And as others have pointed out, Crawford is absolutely someone who was developed in the Red Sox system. The fact that he's starting rather than relieving doesn't change the fact that he was very good as a reliever.
 

Salem's Lot

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Organizational overhauls of pitching development programs take several years to implement. If Bloom has successfully identified a solution to the problem, we should start seeing results around 2025.

His first draft was in 2020, and there wasn’t even a minor league season that year. We all have to have some patience.
 

Fishy1

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Whitlock’s “year or two in the org” was spring training. Winckowski qualifies, but he was a key player in a big trade and hoped to be a starter, so he probably falls more into the “failed starter” group, and certainly remains to be seen how impactful he will be for the Sox long term.
As far as I can tell, all of the Red Sox's best relief pitchers who were "developed" over the last couple of decades were "failed starters." Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Junichi Tazawa, Brandon Workman - even Daniel Bard began as a starter!
 

Rovin Romine

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As far as I can tell, all of the Red Sox's best relief pitchers who were "developed" over the last couple of decades were "failed starters." Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Junichi Tazawa, Brandon Workman - even Daniel Bard began as a starter!
I don't think the "failed starter" label is particularly useful. Haven't the majority of bullpen arms in the entire Major Leagues spend time in the minors as starters?

(I mean it's pretty much expected - you acquire the best arms, who are often starters in HS/College, then you see how they develop.)
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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As far as I can tell, all of the Red Sox's best relief pitchers who were "developed" over the last couple of decades were "failed starters." Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Junichi Tazawa, Brandon Workman - even Daniel Bard began as a starter!
Yeah, which pretty much seems like the route most good relievers take to the bigs. Sure, they’ve tried with guys like Hansen and Feltman, which didn’t work, but that’s not the norm.

Sox have guys who would be good relievers but several of them are currently starting, to see if they can be good starters.

Don’t think it’s any more complex than that; the Sox have had challenges developing cost-controlled pitchers, in general, for awhile.
 

Vermonter At Large

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Can't development happen after you've picked a guy up off the dumpster heap? How can you say they didn't help them make adjustments that made them into better big-league pitchers?

If you're going to make your own definition of "development," it's not going to surprise anyone if no one fits that definition.

And as others have pointed out, Crawford is absolutely someone who was developed in the Red Sox system. The fact that he's starting rather than relieving doesn't change the fact that he was very good as a reliever.
You're being deliberately obtuse, which is why a lot of folks stopped posting here. I'm old and cranky and have zero tolerance for dicks.

Of course, a guy can always learn how to throw a new pitch, or modify his delivery to not tip pitches, etc. The whole theme of this thread, however, is considering development to be the result of a deliberate organizational methodology that understands that as much as 40% of IPs are going to be from bullpen guys and that old paradigms like "converting failed starters," or acquiring established relievers from other teams are no longer practical in modern MLB procedures.
 

Fishy1

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I don't think the "failed starter" label is particularly useful. Haven't the majority of bullpen arms in the entire Major Leagues spend time in the minors as starters?

(I mean it's pretty much expected - you acquire the best arms, who are often starters in HS/College, then you see how they develop.)
Yeah, which pretty much seems like the route most good relievers take to the bigs. Sure, they’ve tried with guys like Hansen and Feltman, which didn’t work, but that’s not the norm.

Sox have guys who would be good relievers but several of them are currently starting, to see if they can be good starters.

Don’t think it’s any more complex than that; the Sox have had challenges developing cost-controlled pitchers, in general, for awhile.
Yeah, I think we're in violent agreement here.

I maintain the issue is not with development -- the Red Sox have promoted several pitchers in just the last couple of years who are excellent. The two best starting pitchers on the staff, Crawford and Bello, by the numbers, are Red Sox developed.

The issue has been that the outside signings - Kluber, Paxton, and Sale - have been mediocre or disastrous, and the others -- Houck and Whitlock in particular -- have been struck by injuries, freak and not freak. That's an entire starting pitching corps that hasn't been effective or able to stay on the mound.

You're being deliberately obtuse, which is why a lot of folks stopped posting here. I'm old and cranky and have zero tolerance for dicks.

Of course, a guy can always learn how to throw a new pitch, or modify his delivery to not tip pitches, etc. The whole theme of this thread, however, is considering development to be the result of a deliberate organizational methodology that understands that as much as 40% of IPs are going to be from bullpen guys and that old paradigms like "converting failed starters," or acquiring established relievers from other teams are no longer practical in modern MLB procedures.
Acquiring pitchers from other organizations through the Rule 5 draft or other means and fixing them up is absolutely not impractical, and in fact it is a staple of excellent organizations. The Tampa Bay Rays, who are first in the division, have done it with several of our very own pitchers (Diekman and Sherriff). As a matter of fact, not a single member of their relief corps was "developed" internally, as you've defined it. Baltimore has exactly one pitcher, as far as I can tell, in their relief corps who was developed as you've defined it, and he was a failed starter. The Red Sox best relievers (Jansen, Martin, Wink, and Bernardino) were acquired by external means, and Whitlock and Houck, who were excellent relievers, were acquired externally. In fact, because of the way the Rule 5 draft is constructed now, it's actually necessary to get good at identifying flotsam and jetsam from other organizations that might become useful. Whitlock is an excellent example of this. So is Bernardino.

So I'm not sure how we can say that this method of acquiring pitchers externally, is "no longer practical."

Also, I'm sorry, I know you're a dope... but calling me a dick and telling me my deliberate obtuseness is why no one posts here anymore strikes me as completely unfair. I'm not the one strutting around callling people dicks, and I'm not being deliberately obtuse. I'm disagreeing with your premises, and if you can't handle that, then what are we even doing here? This is the second time in a month I've disagreed with a dope and basically been threatened to stop posting, and it's honestly pretty tiresome. And I know from dm-ing with others that they feel the same way.
 

mauf

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Also, I'm sorry, I know you're a dope... but calling me a dick and telling me my deliberate obtuseness is why no one posts here anymore strikes me as completely unfair. I'm not the one strutting around callling people dicks, and I'm not being deliberately obtuse. I'm disagreeing with your premises, and if you can't handle that, then what are we even doing here? This is the second time in a month I've disagreed with a dope and basically been threatened to stop posting, and it's honestly pretty tiresome. And I know from dm-ing with others that they feel the same way.
Personal complaints don’t belong here. Take it to PMs if it’s an issue with one person, or to Backwash if you have a broader concern about moderation.

Fwiw, I don’t think picking up reclamation projects and seeing if you can fix them counts as “development.” Not because you can’t find value that way, but because the word “development” is normally used to refer to the scouting, drafting, and progression of young players who are believed to have the potential to become major-league contributors.
 

JM3

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I pretty strongly disagree actually. He's exactly what everyone complains Houck is.

As a starter this season...

Pitcher A
1st time through: 2.09 era, .246 wOBA
2nd time through 5.51 era, .346 wOBA
3rd time through: 9.00 era, .470 wOBA

Pitcher B
1st time through: 2.81 era, .269 wOBA
2nd time through 4.35 era, .344 wOBA
3rd time through: 11.48 era, .338 wOBA

Pitcher C
1st time through: 5.79 era, .339 wOBA
2nd time through 2.35 era, .224 wOBA
3rd time through: 11.17 era, .504 wOBA
Before I forget,

A is Crawford, B is Houck & C is Whitlock.
 

BaseballJones

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I pretty strongly disagree actually. He's exactly what everyone complains Houck is.

As a starter this season...

Pitcher A
1st time through: 2.09 era, .246 wOBA
2nd time through 5.51 era, .346 wOBA
3rd time through: 9.00 era, .470 wOBA

Pitcher B
1st time through: 2.81 era, .269 wOBA
2nd time through 4.35 era, .344 wOBA
3rd time through: 11.48 era, .338 wOBA

Pitcher C
1st time through: 5.79 era, .339 wOBA
2nd time through 2.35 era, .224 wOBA
3rd time through: 11.17 era, .504 wOBA
I get what you're saying. And he's definitely been much better this year as a reliever (1.66 era as a reliever vs. 4.20 as a starter), but he's been solid as a starter OVERALL, because that first time through the order counts, and he does a good job keeping the team in games. He's not an ace - not close - but he's been pretty solid in that role for them.

Of course, I'd like it if they had a host of much better starting pitchers than Kutter Crawford so he could go back to the pen. But even high payroll teams need to have some cost-controlled starting pitching. As a super cheap and fairly young pitcher, you could do a LOT worse than Crawford and his 4.20 era as a starter.
 

Fishy1

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Personal complaints don’t belong here. Take it to PMs if it’s an issue with one person, or to Backwash if you have a broader concern about moderation.

Fwiw, I don’t think picking up reclamation projects and seeing if you can fix them counts as “development.” Not because you can’t find value that way, but because the word “development” is normally used to refer to the scouting, drafting, and progression of young players who are believed to have the potential to become major-league contributors.
Fair enough - the definitional stuff may have been quibbling, but it was quibbling with a larger point, which is that good teams don't rely on their farm to develop pitchers from seed all the way to flower. Good teams identify players who are undervalued or who are vulnerable in the Rule 5 and snatch them up. Developing your own relievers is nice, but the best teams are acquiring relievers left and right. So I'm disagreeing with the premise of the thread.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I don’t think the bullpen is really a big problem, though. Jansen and Martin have been excellent, Winckowski very good. Whitlock ok, when available. The issues is the starters- and primarily, not getting enough innings out of them. The team continually runs into problems in the 4th-6th innings, it seems. I think it’s more a starter issue than reliever.
 

geoflin

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Drafting or signing a guy as a minor league free agent, instructing them and carefully nurturing them for a few years across multiple levels of the organization, guiding them and enabling them to get the most out of their natural talent. Dumpster-diving for other organizations' rejects is not development.
Whitlock was drafted, albeit in the Rule 5 draft. They traded for Winckowski, presumably because there was something about him that they had identified and liked. Neither of these is dumpster diving for rejects.
 

Bread of Yaz

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Developing your own draftees is just one avenue, and its downside is how long the process takes. Trades are another avenue of course. Cashman has, for example, assembled a really nice bullpen over the last several years through a series of astute trades (for Holmes, Peralta, King & Middleton, just to name a few).
 

mauf

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Fair enough - the definitional stuff may have been quibbling, but it was quibbling with a larger point, which is that good teams don't rely on their farm to develop pitchers from seed all the way to flower. Good teams identify players who are undervalued or who are vulnerable in the Rule 5 and snatch them up. Developing your own relievers is nice, but the best teams are acquiring relievers left and right. So I'm disagreeing with the premise of the thread.
I think Rule 5 is similar to the later rounds of the main draft — it can be part of your development strategy (because Rule 5 picks are generally still young enough to develop), but if it’s a major area of focus you have problems. I mean, what do teams that do the Rule 5 draft well get from it — maybe 1-2 marginal contributors every 3 years or so?
 

8slim

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I think development of starters versus bullpen specialists is often guided by the needs of the big league team. The Sox have struggled for years to develop strong pitching of any kind, so it makes a lot of sense that they try to give their pitching prospects as much chance to make it as starters as they can. Is there a ton to gain having a guy develop exclusively as a short reliever when there are glaring holes in the rotation? An ace reliever doesn't have a ton of value if there aren't good pitchers to get the game to them with a chance to win.

Conventional wisdom has always been that guys can move from a starting role to the bullpen and get a boost, whether it's a simplification of pitch repetoire or shorter outings enabling them to "empty the tank" faster and throw harder to get a couple extra MPH. And as we've seen with pretty much all the recent young pitching that's come up (Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, etc), that conventional wisdom seems to hold true. They all have performed better in the bullpen. Should they all be relievers rather than starters? Probably not. Can't build a staff around 10 guys who only pitch 2-3 innings at a time.
Agree with this post. As to the bolded... just give it a couple years, I suspect this is precisely where a bunch of teams are headed.
 

JM3

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Agree with this post. As to the bolded... just give it a couple years, I suspect this is precisely where a bunch of teams are headed.
You can't build one around 10 guys who do that - but you can build one around a couple guys who pitch more & 15 guys who do that.
 

JM3

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I get what you're saying. And he's definitely been much better this year as a reliever (1.66 era as a reliever vs. 4.20 as a starter), but he's been solid as a starter OVERALL, because that first time through the order counts, and he does a good job keeping the team in games. He's not an ace - not close - but he's been pretty solid in that role for them.

Of course, I'd like it if they had a host of much better starting pitchers than Kutter Crawford so he could go back to the pen. But even high payroll teams need to have some cost-controlled starting pitching. As a super cheap and fairly young pitcher, you could do a LOT worse than Crawford and his 4.20 era as a starter.
The problem is how you get there, though, right? His 1st time through is great. But if every batter he faces more than that, his ERA is increasing, so you end up with a lot of 4 inning starts, which isn't particularly helpful.

He has 17 starts this season. He's pitched less than 5 innings in 8 of them, 5 to 5.2 innings in 6 of them, & exactly 6 innings in 3 of them. Those 4th & 5th innings he's out there are not value-additive. He makes much more sense to me as a bullpen piece & a break glass in case of emergency starter...unless he gets better. But if we're looking for pitchers to get better, Crawford is actually a few months older than Houck.

& yes, Crawford has a better ERA as a starter than Houck this season, but Houck has a 3.93 xFIP as a starter compared to Crawford's 4.38. & the other reason Crawford has a lower ERA as a starter than Houck? He's pitched less innings per start. Crawford has pitched 4.67 innings per start compared to 5.11 for Houck so the great 1st time through the order #s carry more weight toward the overall ERA.

So it doesn't make sense to me why Crawford would be rotation staple ahead of Houck.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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The problem is how you get there, though, right? His 1st time through is great. But if every batter he faces more than that, his ERA is increasing, so you end up with a lot of 4 inning starts, which isn't particularly helpful.

He has 17 starts this season. He's pitched less than 5 innings in 8 of them, 5 to 5.2 innings in 6 of them, & exactly 6 innings in 3 of them. Those 4th & 5th innings he's out there are not value-additive. He makes much more sense to me as a bullpen piece & a break glass in case of emergency starter...unless he gets better. But if we're looking for pitchers to get better, Crawford is actually a few months older than Houck.

& yes, Crawford has a better ERA as a starter than Houck this season, but Houck has a 3.93 xFIP as a starter compared to Crawford's 4.38. & the other reason Crawford has a lower ERA as a starter than Houck? He's pitched less innings per start. Crawford has pitched 4.67 innings per start compared to 5.11 for Houck so the great 1st time through the order #s carry more weight toward the overall ERA.

So it doesn't make sense to me why Crawford would be rotation staple ahead of Houck.
You're not wrong. But the same can be said for almost all starting pitchers. Plenty of work has been done on this and it's just reality - for the vast majority of starters, their performance declines the 2nd and 3rd time through the order. This is why you saw Blake Snell get removed in game 6 of the World Series, even though he was utterly dominant that day. Cash knew what those numbers were. It was still a bad call because those spreadsheets don't show you how dominant he was on that particular day, and it cost him. But it's the philosophy anyway that's pervading all of MLB. Boston isn't the only one doing this.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Theoretically, you don’t want a pitcher facing a batter a third time through the order- I get that. Makes sense in an individual game, but what’s the cumulative effect of not letting your starters go deep and how do you measure that? When you don’t let your starters face a batter a third time and you have multiple relievers who can’t go back to back days, oh and no lefties in the pen- you start really limiting yourself and get into unfavorable matchups.
 

JM3

often quoted
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Dec 14, 2019
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You're not wrong. But the same can be said for almost all starting pitchers. Plenty of work has been done on this and it's just reality - for the vast majority of starters, their performance declines the 2nd and 3rd time through the order. This is why you saw Blake Snell get removed in game 6 of the World Series, even though he was utterly dominant that day. Cash knew what those numbers were. It was still a bad call because those spreadsheets don't show you how dominant he was on that particular day, and it cost him. But it's the philosophy anyway that's pervading all of MLB. Boston isn't the only one doing this.
Sure. But every bit matters. The less your guy drops off & the longer he can carry on at least semi-competency, the more valuable he is for team construction. Especially in the regular season when you do need to pitch some innings sub-optimally on any given day to get through a season.

It's not an indictment on Crawford...I just don't want him being 1 of the 5 best options unless he can prove he can consistently get through 5+ innings every start barring disaster.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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Like Bello has a 3.56 ERA this season. If they always took him out after 2 times through the lineup, he would have a 2.93 ERA (he is 2.91 the 1st time through & 2.94 the 2nd time through, but the fact that he has pitched 31 additional innings into the 3rd & 4th time through the lineup has a lot of value to any team, & especially this one where literally no one else is going deep into games. So even though he has an ERA of 5.52 during those extra innings, that's still acceptable in the regular season. But Crawford at 5.51 his 2nd time through & declining from there, is really not good enough.
 

Benj4ever

New Member
Nov 21, 2022
367
I pretty strongly disagree actually. He's exactly what everyone complains Houck is.

As a starter this season...

Pitcher A
1st time through: 2.09 era, .246 wOBA
2nd time through 5.51 era, .346 wOBA
3rd time through: 9.00 era, .470 wOBA

Pitcher B
1st time through: 2.81 era, .269 wOBA
2nd time through 4.35 era, .344 wOBA
3rd time through: 11.48 era, .338 wOBA

Pitcher C
1st time through: 5.79 era, .339 wOBA
2nd time through 2.35 era, .224 wOBA
3rd time through: 11.17 era, .504 wOBA
This is his first full year as a starter, though. I'd wait before making a final judgment on him.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,772
Like Bello has a 3.56 ERA this season. If they always took him out after 2 times through the lineup, he would have a 2.93 ERA (he is 2.91 the 1st time through & 2.94 the 2nd time through, but the fact that he has pitched 31 additional innings into the 3rd & 4th time through the lineup has a lot of value to any team, & especially this one where literally no one else is going deep into games. So even though he has an ERA of 5.52 during those extra innings, that's still acceptable in the regular season. But Crawford at 5.51 his 2nd time through & declining from there, is really not good enough.
It's good enough for a 4.20 era overall as a starter, which would put him #17 in the AL among qualified leaders (if (a) he had enough innings to qualify, and (b) we only counted his era as a starter).
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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This is his first full year as a starter, though. I'd wait before making a final judgment on him.
No judgment is final. Pitchers evolve (or devolve). But Crawford did start 12 games last season & will be 28 next season. He will need to take a jump to be someone you want as part of your rotation rather than someone you want pitching 2-3 innings once or twice a week. Of course it's possible, but I wouldn't assume him into that.