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Premier League - Title (and Top 4) Race

Discussion in 'Breakfast with Gazza (with Sachmoneious Bullcrap)' started by Dernells Casket n Flagon, Mar 11, 2019.

  1. OilCanShotTupac

    OilCanShotTupac Sunny von Bulow Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Lukaku looks like he's aged 15 years since he left Everton.
     
  2. teddykgb

    teddykgb Member SoSH Member

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    He even setup his Celtic teams well against City and he always seemed to truly hate City. Maybe he won’t want Klopp to win so he can convince himself he’s Liverpool’s best modern manager. He seems like the type
     
  3. coremiller

    coremiller Member SoSH Member

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    If City win out to win the title, which they have a reasonable shot at doing now, they'll have finished the season winning their final 14 matches and 18 of their last 19. That would be an astonishing closing run, since it looks like they'll need every one of those points.
     
  4. nolasoxfan

    nolasoxfan Member SoSH Member

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    3,094
    Can the lowly B&HA Gulls pull a final day upset at home? Is that the only hope left?
     
  5. OilCanShotTupac

    OilCanShotTupac Sunny von Bulow Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Brighton could be fighting for their lives in that game- they’re only 3 points clear of safety and Cardiff are in better form. A game with City needing a win for the title and Brighton needing a win to stay up would be bonkers.
     
  6. coremiller

    coremiller Member SoSH Member

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    3,861
    The last time City needed to win on the final day to clinch the title while playing a relegation-threatened side needing a result to stay up, the result was certainly bonkers.
     
  7. teddykgb

    teddykgb Member SoSH Member

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    Any chance they can sign Joey Barton before the match?
     
  8. Morgan's Magic Snowplow

    Morgan's Magic Snowplow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Also amazing: Even if they win out, it still won't be as good (points wise at least) as their first half last season.

    Pep has achieved equivalent points totals at his other clubs. But for English football this is just an unprecedented level of domination.
     
  9. jkempa

    jkempa Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    7,870
    Barring a pretty dramatic change, Brighton have effectively a 4 point lead over Cardiff, as they are 13 better in GD.
     
  10. Zososoxfan

    Zososoxfan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I will say this for BHA, they make attacking miserable for their opponents. Parking the bus does a disservice to buses everywhere. Nevertheless, with the squad and Pep's tactics, City should cruise. Only thing keeping them from the title is LCFC turning back the clock, playing stout D, and having Vardy pip one IMO.
     
  11. Zososoxfan

    Zososoxfan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    This is what happens when TV rights are more valuable than seats in the house. We've seen it in the US for years--the best seats are in your living room. There's certainly an interesting experiment to be done where a match is played in a setting totally optimized for filming. Think gliding cameras along each touchline and endline, multiple overheads, etc. You can add some seating to make some extra dollars and bring some atmosphere, but really try to reimagine the filming process.

    And naturally Spurs fans as well :fonz:

    Chelsea's remaining schedule is brutal, Arse almost certainly still control their own destiny. If they can get 6-7 points from their remaining matches, I think they pass Chelsea. They hold a slim 2 goal lead on GD, so we could see some fun scorelines to finish the season.

    I don't know what that last sentence is meant to imply. Barcelona sit top of the table with 80 points currently, Atleti are second with 71. MANC and Pool are at 89 and 88 respectively.

    More interestingly, looking at the tables, there have been 100 draws in La Liga and only 62 in the EPL. There have been 960 goals in the EPL, but I can't find the total for La Liga.
     
  12. teddykgb

    teddykgb Member SoSH Member

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    I disagree. Anyone can pip a draw with a parked bus and a little luck. Even United had four or five really good chances yesterday. In terms of my fear, Vardy is definitely 1 as City have been struggling recently with balls over the top and lord knows that’s his thing. But the upcoming Burnley trip is a classic play well and draw scenario as well. Then if they make it to final weekend with lead you never know what that pressure does. Admittedly a lot of my thinking is grounded in that run in against United where seemingly crazy results kept happening under the duress of the race. These two teams have been remarkably consistent but if I had to place a bet I’d probably bet on both teams dropping points in the remaining three just because it seems like there are always twists and turns in the race.
     
  13. Zososoxfan

    Zososoxfan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    City is easily the best side in the EPL at breaking down hunkered defenses though. After Pep established his ball control style at Barca, he then evolved the system to break down hunkered defenses by having width players hug the touchline and his most dangerous dribblers setup as inverted wingers, all the while having world class passers and finishers in the middle. So yes, while the danger of getting hit on the counter is always there for a major club trying to take points off a minnow, City are better situated to score a goal early and make the minnow open up. It's basically the opposite of the Spurs-BHA match where Spurs sputtered all match to break BHA down, but BHA didn't create many chances.

    One area in which Pool are far superior to City IMO is defending these counters. While Dinho is an excellent pivot, Wijnaldum, Keita, and others are faster and able to slow down a counter.
     
  14. bosox4283

    bosox4283 Member SoSH Member

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    I think the total is 874 for La Liga.
     
  15. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    The record for fewest draws by a team in PL is 3---as of now, Spurs have 1 and City just 2.
     
  16. Zososoxfan

    Zososoxfan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    La Liga - defense first ;)
     
  17. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    This seems like a very good assessment of City with KDB. They seem much less threatening without him this season.
     
  18. fletcherpost

    fletcherpost sosh's feckin' poet laureate Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    If Burnley needed a point for survival, I might give them a shout to get something against City. I've no doubt's they'll be well organised and tight at the back, but as already said above, City are the best at negotiating the parked bus. If City score first, you always fancy them to score the next when the oppostion has to show some ambition and spaces are created.

    There are always blips in form and bumps on the road, but i think losing to Spurs in the Champions League was the last blip we'll see from City this season.

    One of my favourite Hansenisms was 'Course and distance' - he'd often say this when talking about sides who've been there and done it. City are like a great runner on the last lap, they get faster as the winning line approaches. They know what it feels like, Pep knows what it feels like. They've been preparing for this all season. It's what great teams do down the stretch...they go up a level, moreso in terms of professionalism than mere performance.

    Hats off to Liverpool for living with City and breathing the same air. The season's not over and I'm already looking forward to the close season and seeing who adds what to their respective squads.
     
  19. wonderland

    wonderland lurker

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    255
    I kind of disagree with this.

    Last year City were beaten pretty convincingly by Liverpool in the CL then missed out winning the title against United, which I’m sure they would’ve loved to do.

    This year they were obviously bounced by Spurs. And I suspect they will drop some points in the next three.
     
  20. OilCanShotTupac

    OilCanShotTupac Sunny von Bulow Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    It’s at the back where City are weakest. Most sides are too busy bunkering against them, but yo can have a go at those fullbacks As Spurs showed.
     
  21. fletcherpost

    fletcherpost sosh's feckin' poet laureate Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I take your point. But they're reigning Champions now, and that was Pep's first league title with City. I think he's a smarter manager, and i thnk the players he has now are better prepared for what's to come than last year. Plus they were farther in front last year. The Man U game last year wasn't a must win, and Utd were a better team last season, having (in league terms) a better season.

    I also think we have remember the Champions League tie at home to Spurs was a cup tie with away goals counting. A different dynamic. It wasn't about getting three points.

    But i hope City drop points cos I'd love to see Liverpool get the title.
     
  22. Nick Kaufman

    Nick Kaufman protector of human kind from spoilers Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    On any Sunday, any team can win any other team. Looking at the standings, I see that City has won 29 out of their 35 matches, or 82% of them. Based on this, their chances of them running the table is 0.82x0.82x082=55%. Liverpool have actually won 27 out of their 35 matches so using the same method, their chances of running the table are 45%.

    You could argue that both teams are playing weaker teams than average. Even so, if you assign City 90% chance of winning each match, their chances of running the table are at 72%.

    FWIW, I think City is clearly better than Liverpool. Liverpool strengthened their defense this year with Van Dijk and Alisson, but I think De Bruyne makes the difference creatively for City. Besides, when you look at xgoals City seem to have a 6 point differential. To me that confirms what I ve noticed with my eye that Liverpool have run somewhat well and stole some results against the run of play.

    Having said that, it's so close right now that you can't preclude Liverpool from winning it all.
     
  23. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Their B team they ran out there against Wolverhampton? Sure. But put Ramsey and the rest of the A-teamers in and it's a much more solid squad that knows what to do with possession.

    Two of the goals they gave up to Wolves were absolutely shambolic midfield disasters which were then compounded by goal"keep"ing disasters.

    Anyway, given the remaining schedule, I'd rather be in Arsenal's position, down a point but playing 3 relative patsies, than in Chelsea's position playing the 6th, 8th and 9th-ranked teams and likely needing 9 from them. Just enjoy Everton's chance in week 38 to knock Spurs down a few pegs.
     
  24. Dernells Casket n Flagon

    Dernells Casket n Flagon Member SoSH Member

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    Ramsey is most likely out for the season.
     
  25. SocrManiac

    SocrManiac Member SoSH Member

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    This Juventus fan can live with that.
     
  26. OilCanShotTupac

    OilCanShotTupac Sunny von Bulow Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I don't mean soft center in terms of midfield, although there is that. I just mean that with Arsenal generally, it's... meh. What are they, really?
     
  27. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    I don't know how to answer that question. "What is" any top team? What is Everton, really, for example?
     
  28. OilCanShotTupac

    OilCanShotTupac Sunny von Bulow Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Now that things seem to have clicked under Silva, Everton are a team that like to play a high press and try mostly to advance out wide through their fullback/winger combos - Digne/Bernard and Coleman/Richarlison.

    Newcastle will play a 5-4-1 or 4-5-1 and beat the crap out of you physically.

    Leicester try to spring Vardy on the break.

    Arsenal... ? Maybe I don't see enough of them but what's their thing?
     
    #78 OilCanShotTupac, Apr 26, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2019
  29. SocrManiac

    SocrManiac Member SoSH Member

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    Extended proximity to Spurs?
     
  30. OilCanShotTupac

    OilCanShotTupac Sunny von Bulow Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    *ahem *
     
  31. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    538's updated numbers:

    Spurs 96%
    Chelsea 73%
    Arsenal 26%
    ManU 6%

    At the other end, Cardiff is 96% to go down, BHA 4%.
     
  32. SoxFanInCali

    SoxFanInCali has the rich, deep voice of a god and the penis of Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    We've now guaranteed that the Premier League runner-up will have the highest points total of any non-champion. The previous record was 89 points. City have 92 and Liverpool 91 with 2 games to go.
     
  33. Plantiers Wart

    Plantiers Wart Member SoSH Member

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    97 and second is brutal.
     
  34. SoxFanInCali

    SoxFanInCali has the rich, deep voice of a god and the penis of Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Until last year 95 points was the highest total in Premier League history.
     
  35. Clears Cleaver

    Clears Cleaver Lil' Bill SoSH Member

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    Liverpool realistically can play 52 games this season in all competitions, lose only six, and bring home no trophies.
     
  36. Nick Kaufman

    Nick Kaufman protector of human kind from spoilers Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Good stat, did not know this.
     
  37. swiftaw

    swiftaw Member SoSH Member

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    Or 5 losses in 51, if they go out of the CL to Barca on away goals after 2 draws.
     
  38. SoxFanInCali

    SoxFanInCali has the rich, deep voice of a god and the penis of Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Liverpool have already lost 6 games this season. Once in the league, 3 times in the CL group stage (lost all 3 away games), and once each in the League Cup and FA Cup. As you said, they could go out of the CL without a loss on away goals or penalties.

    They will play 38 in the league, 12 or 13 in the CL, and 1 each in the domestic cups, for a total of 52 or 53.
     
  39. swiftaw

    swiftaw Member SoSH Member

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    My bad, I missed one of the CL losses.
     
  40. Clears Cleaver

    Clears Cleaver Lil' Bill SoSH Member

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    Right
     
  41. Dernells Casket n Flagon

    Dernells Casket n Flagon Member SoSH Member

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    Two weeks left for the premier league. Doesn't seem like any of the teams 3-6 even want to qualify for the Champions league. Points by each team over their last three games.

    Spurs - 3
    Chelsea - 2
    ManU - 1
    Arsenal - 0

    Should we place a bit on who will pick up more points in the final two weeks? City and Liverpool combined vs 3-6 combined?

    3. Spurs - 70 - 96% to qualify for CL
    4. Chelsea- 68 - 73% to qualify
    5. Arsenal - 66 - 26% to qualify
    6. ManU - 65 - 6% to qualify

    Spurs schedule: @Bournemouth(14) and Everton(7). Playing Ajax in the CL Semi Finals
    Arsenal schedule: Brighton(17) and @Burnley(15). Facing Valencia in the Europa Semi Finals
    ManU Schedule: Huddersfield(20), Cardiff City(18).
    Chelsea schedule: Watford(8) and @Leicester City(9). Playing Frankfurt in the Europa Semi Finals.

    1. City - 92 - 82% to win PL
    2. Liverpool - 91 - 18%

    Liverpool remaining schedule: @Newcastle, Wolves(10). Playing Barca in the CL Semi Finals.
    Man City remaining schedule: Leicester City(9) and Brighton(17). Playing Watford in the FA Cup Final on 5/18.


    Golden Boot:
    Salah - 21
    Mane, Augero - 20,
    Aubameyang - 19
    Vardy - 18
     
    #91 Dernells Casket n Flagon, Apr 29, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2019
  42. OilCanShotTupac

    OilCanShotTupac Sunny von Bulow Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    The Wolves game is Week 38 for Pool. They are away to Newcastle Saturday.
     
  43. OilCanShotTupac

    OilCanShotTupac Sunny von Bulow Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    The Guardian, from their story on Arsenal ‘s draw with Brighton today-

     
  44. Zososoxfan

    Zososoxfan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Arsenal - the official bottlers of North London :redwine:
     
  45. Jimy Hendrix

    Jimy Hendrix Member SoSH Member

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    I've got enough "old Sox fan, new Spurs fan" in me that I'm not going to exhale until a 10 GD swing disaster weekend officially doesn't happen, but it's looking pretty good.
     
  46. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    That quote is dumb. Four EPL teams in the quarters and two in the UCL semis, plus a likely all EPL Europa league final makes it seem like there are just too damn many good teams in the EPL and they are all exhausted at the end of a brutal schedule.
     
  47. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    yeah that article is playing to a self-deprecating, always-nervous English audience. They have the best league top-to-bottom in the world. If you take each league by finishing place and pair up 1st-to-1st, 2nd-to-2nd down to 20th-to-20th, the EPL would probably beat La Liga and the Bundesliga (1-18) pretty soundly, and absolutely crush Serie A and Ligue 1, even if they wouldn't be favored in any of the 1st-on-1st matchups.
     
  48. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Oh hey, while I'm at it, through the first 37 weeks (and not counting the Man City match going on right now), here are the number of points taken off of matches against Top-6 teams, by non-Top-6 teams:

    1. Wolverhampton: 16 (W vs ARS, CHE, MUN, W @ TOT, T vs MCI, T @ ARS, CHE, MUN)
    2T. Everton: 11 (W vs ARS, CHE, MUN, T vs LIV, T @ CHE)
    2T. West Ham: 11 (W vs ARS, MUN, W @ TOT, T vs CHE, LIV)
    4. Leicester: 10 (W vs ARS, MCI, W @ CHE, T @ LIV)
    5T. Crystal Palace: 8 (W @ ARS, MCI, T vs ARS, T @ MUN)
    5T. Southampton: 8 (W vs ARS, TOT, T vs MUN, T @ CHE)
    7. Bournemouth: 6 (W vs CHE, TOT)
    8T. Brighton: 5 (W vs MUN, T vs ARS, T @ ARS)
    8T. Burnley: 5 (W vs TOT, T @ CHE, MUN)
    10T. Newcastle: 3 (W vs MCI)
    10T. Watford: 3 (W vs TOT)
    12. Huddersfield: 1 (T vs MUN)
    13T. Cardiff City: 0
    13T. Fulham: 0

    Wolves have faced 11 matches against top-6 competition, and gotten a result in 8 of them! They play at Liverpool on Saturday.

    And the flip side of it, here's points dropped (3 * Losses + 2 * Ties) against non-top-6 teams by the Top 6:

    1. Liverpool: 6 (0 L, 3 T)
    2. Man City: 11 (3 L, 1 T)
    3. Tottenham: 18 (6 L, 0 T)
    4T. Chelsea: 22 (4 L, 5 T)
    4T. Man United: 22 (4 L, 5 T)
    6. Arsenal: 26 (6 L, 4 T)
     
  49. Dernells Casket n Flagon

    Dernells Casket n Flagon Member SoSH Member

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    One week left, and it looks like it will take an act of god to knock Man City out of the top spot. 3-6 continued their remarkable bad showings this week, which has allowed Chelsea to clinch their spot and Spurs through as well barring a horrific defeat combined with an Arsenal win to overcome an 8 goal differential.

    Total points last 4 games
    Spurs - 3
    Chelsea - 5
    ManU - 2
    Arsenal - 1

    3. Chelsea - 71
    4. Spurs - 70
    5. Arsenal - 67
    6. ManU - 66

    Spurs schedule: Everton(7). Playing Ajax in the CL Semi Finals
    Arsenal schedule: @Burnley(15). Facing Valencia in the Europa Semi Finals
    ManU Schedule: Cardiff City(18).
    Chelsea schedule: @Leicester City(9). Playing Frankfurt in the Europa Semi Finals.

    1. City - 95 - 87% to win PL
    2. Liverpool - 94 - 13%

    Liverpool remaining schedule: Wolves(10). Playing Barca in the CL Semi Finals.
    Man City remaining schedule: Brighton(17). Playing Watford in the FA Cup Final on 5/18.

    Golden Boot:
    Salah - 22
    Mane, Augero, Aubameyang - 20,
    Vardy - 18
     
  50. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Probably don't need to include ManU in the top 4 posts.
     

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