Win loss record isnt going to add much. We already know the Pats are the uncontested best team of the era and I dont feel like adding Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw, and Joe Flacco into the GOAT discussion is the right approach to take.( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
Peyton Manning's Legacy
- Thread starter RIrooter09
- Start date
I don't think there is a way to honestly twist the stats to show that Manning is anything but disappointing in the playoffs.
That doesn't mean he is not great at playing QB in the NFL. It just means that he has not been great at playing QB in the NFL playoffs.
That doesn't mean he is not great at playing QB in the NFL. It just means that he has not been great at playing QB in the NFL playoffs.
You think a pitcher has as much control over a game's outcome as a quarterback does?EvilEmpire said:
Toe Nash said:
Spot on.
Also spot on.
I am very skeptical of theories that rely on willpower. The far likelier explanation IMO is that he's a good QB who beats mediocre competition on a consistent basis, but he's not good enough to beat the best. That's what the playoff record suggests. Let's not forget that at least this year, it didn't feel like there were any behemoths in the AFC in sharp contrast to the NFC which had 4-5 pretty strong teams.
The best argument in favor of Manning is that he didn't have a coach like Belichick like Brady. Perhaps that's the difference. We ll never know.
Euclis20 said:
Full splits here
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00/splits/
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/splits/
Look at the career road numbers for both players. Super close.
While most QBs finish what they start,and rightly or wrongly get the credit or blame for wins and losses, Peyton could have used some very early relief last night.EvilEmpire said:
Stitch01 said:
Fixed that for you. (Also, he has 2 more interceptions in 3 less games, so...that's kind of a lot).
Yes. Both play half the game, and while both are reliant on supporting casts, can almost single-handedly win the game when they are at their best and can almost single-handedly lose the game when they are at their worst.rodderick said:
But there are still a ton of variables that they can't control.
There's a lot I disagree with here and in he post you quote. First of all, why would we "average" passer rating, according equal weight to all games regardless of attempts? That further distorts an already flawed stat.Euclis20 said:
Second, go back and look at where those games took place. Only one of Manning's shittiest games was at home.
As to people arguing win-loss record, I would suggest you go back and look at Brady's game logs. He's been bailed out by his teammates on several occasions, most notably against Baltimore in '12 and SD in '07 and '08. I'm not saying Manning hasn't been bailed out as well, but he's also had some tough playoff losses where he played well enough to win.
Id say Brady has been slightly better in the playoffs, but its nowhere near as big of a gap as this board makes it out to be. The overall stats are pretty similar between the two.
As Ive said, I think Tom Brady from '05-'13 has been one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game despite the playoff record.
As Ive said, I think Tom Brady from '05-'13 has been one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game despite the playoff record.
Great post. To be fair to Manning, going .540 is still beating expectations; he should do below .500 in order to be overrated. However, the Brady numbers are phenomenal and show how underrated the Patriots teams are.
I have been hating the guy for 30 years, and I think he cheated the NFL salary cap rules to get Manning, like "he" did to win his only titles, but leaving Elway out of the top 5 is crazy.
He is the most physically talented of any of the top 10 QBs, is tied with Brady for the most Super Bowl appearances of those in the discussion, and, like Brady, dragged a ton out of minimally talented teammates in at least three of those Super Bowls. He did this without the benefit of playing for BB, though I do think Dan Reeves deserves more credit as a coach.
He is the most physically talented of any of the top 10 QBs, is tied with Brady for the most Super Bowl appearances of those in the discussion, and, like Brady, dragged a ton out of minimally talented teammates in at least three of those Super Bowls. He did this without the benefit of playing for BB, though I do think Dan Reeves deserves more credit as a coach.
Another key point in Brady's favor: in addition to the 18-8 vs. 11- 12 playoff numbers, in neutral field or road playoff games Brady is 6-5. Manning is 3-7.
Of Brady's five losses (Giants, Giants, Denver, Indy, Denver) only the first Denver loss was really one where Brady played like shit. In Mannings seven losses, he has played pretty poorly in plenty.
Those are the games where a quarterback becomes GOAT, when you have to perform with a crowd against you (or even just simply loud) rather than reverently waiting in church like silence as you call out "Omaha!"
Although likely a reflection of the Pats' general quality, the regular season numbers tip to Brady also (although by a really small margin). Brady is 65-31 (68%) on the road in the regular season, Manning is 77-43 (64%).
Of Brady's five losses (Giants, Giants, Denver, Indy, Denver) only the first Denver loss was really one where Brady played like shit. In Mannings seven losses, he has played pretty poorly in plenty.
Those are the games where a quarterback becomes GOAT, when you have to perform with a crowd against you (or even just simply loud) rather than reverently waiting in church like silence as you call out "Omaha!"
Although likely a reflection of the Pats' general quality, the regular season numbers tip to Brady also (although by a really small margin). Brady is 65-31 (68%) on the road in the regular season, Manning is 77-43 (64%).
Here's my take on it. Manning's legacy is very similar to where it was in preseason...before the 5th MVP season, before the possible 2nd Super Bowl win, before the record year. In August, he was one of the best of all time in the regular season with a resume that included a poor and possible unfinished script that was his playoff career.
He had a legitimate chance to elevate himself into a possible undisputed GOAT conversation by changing the black mark on his career (Super Bowls, playoff performance). He failed. Again. So his legacy didn't get elevated to that level. Whatever mileage he got out of the regular season he lost in about 16 minutes of the first half last night.
He's now, in my mind, right where he was a year ago. A great QB who can get it done when no one gives a shit, but who struggles in games that matter.
Manning preseason. Great regular season QB, poor playoff record. Average in Super Bowls.
Manning postseason. Greater regular season QB, poor playoff record. Bad in Super Bowls.
He had a legitimate chance to elevate himself into a possible undisputed GOAT conversation by changing the black mark on his career (Super Bowls, playoff performance). He failed. Again. So his legacy didn't get elevated to that level. Whatever mileage he got out of the regular season he lost in about 16 minutes of the first half last night.
He's now, in my mind, right where he was a year ago. A great QB who can get it done when no one gives a shit, but who struggles in games that matter.
Manning preseason. Great regular season QB, poor playoff record. Average in Super Bowls.
Manning postseason. Greater regular season QB, poor playoff record. Bad in Super Bowls.
"Hi, my name is Peyton Manning. Did you know that Papa's John's has a buy-one large pizza, get another dozen for a nickle deal going on right now?"
Stitch01 said:
Regular road splits are super close, but regular season road performance isn't being discussed here.
That was kind of my point: Take him outside in the cold, and his numbers take a hit.
As for passer rating, I agree it's a flawed stat, but I wasn't the first to bring it up. I'd prefer to look at Brady's stronger interception rate, or his far superior touchdown rate.
I was watching the game last night with my daughter. It's 5-0 (took me sometime to explain to her how a Football score can be 5-0) then it's 8-0 and I tell her that Manning can still change this very suddenly with a good drive... INT, 15-0 I still tell her, 2 scores is very doable and it's still a game... pick 6, game over.
Point is, as dominating as it looked for Seattle to start, it also looked like Manning could make a game of it and he failed (not 100% his fault but a big enough percentage). Certain points were well made:
1. Boldin and Crabtree did not drop passes when they were caught up by the Seattle defenders.
2. If Manning eats the two throws, and the defense can hold, they are still in the game.
3. They did not look like they had any sort of plan to play the Seattle defense, the Seattle defense did look like it had a plan vs. the Denver offense.
4. Russell Wilson is incredibly good. How Seattle's fate changed when they drafted this guy in the 3rd round (after having signed Matt Flynn to be their starting QB).
Point is, as dominating as it looked for Seattle to start, it also looked like Manning could make a game of it and he failed (not 100% his fault but a big enough percentage). Certain points were well made:
1. Boldin and Crabtree did not drop passes when they were caught up by the Seattle defenders.
2. If Manning eats the two throws, and the defense can hold, they are still in the game.
3. They did not look like they had any sort of plan to play the Seattle defense, the Seattle defense did look like it had a plan vs. the Denver offense.
4. Russell Wilson is incredibly good. How Seattle's fate changed when they drafted this guy in the 3rd round (after having signed Matt Flynn to be their starting QB).
Other than the weather and indoor / outdoors factor, you also have to consider who they're throwing to.Stitch01 said:
Brady has targeted the following five players most in his playoff career: Branch (93), Welker (90), Brown (72), Faulk (65), Givens (64) - only Hernandez (55) is close to that
Manning's top five: Wayne (133), Harrison (123), Clark (94), Addai (55), Demaryius Thomas (45) - just missing are Edge James (44), Garcon (39), Stokley (39), Marcus Pollard (34)
This is pretty indicative of their careers: 5 of Manning's top 6 were first-round picks while none of Brady's were (Brady's top first-rounders: Watson is 7th with 40 targets, Moss 12th with 25) - Branch and Faulk were both 2nd-rounders.
I don't buy into the "Manning is a playoff choker" argument - I still have nightmares about the comeback he led in the 2006 AFCCG, plus he utterly destroyed the Pats just two weeks ago - but I do believe Brady has a better GOAT argument once we factor in that Manning spent most of his career in a dome and played few bad weather games and Manning has had better weapons for the bulk of their careers.
Stitch01 said:
Splitting hairs over the two best quarterbacks of the last dozen years, and 2 of the 5 best ever? That's how close it is.
Stitch01 said:
Right, but the challenge is that if Manning isn't better in the regular season one can't really put forward a credible argument he's equal overall. So those splits (as I alluded to earlier) suggest it's tough to make the case for Manning.
Euclis20 said:
Oh its for sure close. I lean Manning but I think its very close.
Im playing a little bit of devil's advocate in this thread because 1) I know the board is going to lean pro-Brady and I think arguing the other way makes fore better discussion and 2) I think we tend to overweight small playoff sample sizes and overrate the "Brady is awesome/Manning sucks" in the playoff narrative.
jose melendez said:
This quote could have been made and was made by many people after the last SB that Peyton lost.
How many other chances will he have to lose SBs? Not many.
Awesome post KFP! Thanks for putting some numbers behind the "better talent around them" argument. Yes, this might always be a subjective argument, but your numbers provide some great ammo for Brady's superiority.Kenny F'ing Powers said:
And enough can't be said - and it should always be repeated by anyone arguing Brady vs. Manning so the point soaks in - about the weather factor. It's simply easier to have better stats in a dome than outside. Let alone New England in December outside. If Manning's case as the GOAT rests on his stats, then this factor can't be ignored. It's huge.
PedroKsBambino said:
Im not willing to completely ignore the large differential in home stats. Not like Manning went outdoors to Denver the last couple years and sucked at home. I think it makes enough of a case to give a slight edge to Manning, but understand the counterargument.
I don't buy the "Peyton Manning is a playoff choker" argument either, but the fact remains that his teams have underperformed in the playoffs far more often than Tom Brady's teams, and that underperformance has often been a result of a spectacular failure on the offensive side of the ball (on teams generally built to have great offenses) with him not playing very well. I don't see how that is remotely arguable.
I'm not saying it settles the argument of who is better, because I don't think that is an argument that can be settled. But cumulative playoff stats are not very illuminating in this particular argument.
I'm not saying it settles the argument of who is better, because I don't think that is an argument that can be settled. But cumulative playoff stats are not very illuminating in this particular argument.
What you call luck, I call variables a pitcher or QB can't control.rodderick said:
Pitcher:
Will my catcher call the right pitch?
Will the hitter hit it?
If the hitter hits it, can my defense make a play?
If the defense can make a play, will they?
Will the offense score runs? How many?
QB:
Will my coach call the right play for the defense on the field?
If not, do I have the right player package in the huddle for the audible I need to call based on the defense I see?
Will my O-line makes their assigned blocks?
Will my receivers run the appropriate routes?
Can my receivers get separation?
When I throw the ball, will they catch it?
Can my running backs be effective?
Can the defense keep the other team from scoring?
And of course there are plenty of more variables on either side. While QBs and Pitchers individually have an outsized impact on the outcome of a game compared to their teammates, there are still tons of things they can't influence. You can call it luck if you like, but if anything, I think QBs have fewer variables under their control than pitchers. I think there are more things that have to go right (or that can go wrong) in each football play that a QB can't control than what a pitcher deals with in a given AB.
From all of the numbers I've seen posted in this thread it's clear that the competition is extremely close. There's one thing that stands out though. Bradys are always slightly better.
Stitch01 said:
Denver, however, has a long-documented home field advantage as well. I am curious what numbers you look at to adjust for context---or if you think context just doesn't matter, which is a choice I guess
loshjott said:
That doesn't change what's happened in the past but I think its an interesting contextual factor in this discussion. I see Peyton with one more bite at the apple next year and that's about it - Denver may be able to keep the band together next year but only by undercutting the future from a salary cap perspective, they're going to have a zillion free agents after 2015, their last two drafts haven't been very good, and that's before getting into Peyton's own injury and age related issues. The Patriots are in much better shape going forward as a franchise, Brady is 18 months younger, and his health is better.
Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
I think this is where this discussion goes off the rails.
It is difficult/impossible to use the stats to prove that Brady is better then Manning or that Manning is better then Brady.
I do believe that it is possible to look at Manning's stats and conclude that he is not the single greatest QB of all time.
Those are two very different things.
Another problem for Manning is that he is considered the coach of the Broncos as well as the quarterback. I live just south of Denver and you hear all the time about how this is Payton's offense and they tailor everything around what he wants. He has set himself up as Mr. Preparation who is smarter than everyone else on the field and when his team loses he has to take the blame. The Broncos took on his personality and looked tight and ill-prepared when things didn't go their way.
PedroKsBambino said:
I look at some of the advanced stat stuff and the road numbers for some grounding. I certainly think context matters, Im just sort of skeptical the adjustments are enough to make up the entire difference in home stats. I certainly wouldnt bet anything of value on my opinion being correct on this one.
PaulinMyrBch said:
I'm too young to remember Johnny Unitas, and I'd bet most of the people in this thread are too, but from everything I've read and heard, he should be in the conversation for the best ever.
In NO way should Unitas be in a group with Archie Freakin' Manning.
One thing that I can't stand is the GOAT argument. It is so difficult to compare guys over different eras. Sure, we all know that the game Otto Graham or Sammy Baugh played was way different then the game today, but even the game that Montana played is different. I can get into comparing Brady to Manning because they played at the same time, but outside of that, it seems pretty unrealistic to say that Brady is better then Montana or vice versa, because the type of QB they played is so different.
The playoff-choker argument is anecdotal, but totally deserved in the sense that Manning has had a history of very specific, high-damage interceptions in situations where exactly what his team needed was a quarterback to be the difference maker in a bad match-up. Last night was more of that.
86spike said:
I think that is a pretty good group. Elway is a very good illustration on why you don't judge a QB too harshly on his Superbowl record. Young Elway that was blown out in many Super Bowls was a much better QB than old Elway that won two.
Super Nomario said:
You'd be correct.
I'm just that guy that likes to point to his own post whenever possible.
rodderick said:
I would say Pedro Martinez had much more control over a game's outcome than, say, Super Bowl winners Trent Dilfer or Joe Flacco.