1. FlorioFlorio, on PFT, said the Niners may want Bridgewater, which if course means, they'd totally deal JG to Patriots.
Also, Teddy's agent may have fed Florio the "info" to try and get other teams to move on trading for Teddy.1. Florio
2. Of course they would "deal" JG to the Patriots
3. Whether the Patriots would want to acquire him via trade, on the other hand, is another matter
I'm hoping to discover that he has a sister named Tula.Forgive the game-thready content, here, but if Kellen Mond ends up on the N.E. roster, I need to put in an early word for a nickname of “What a World.” Not a big Francophile contingent in here but that was irresistible.
SMU is always right on with his evaluations and I trust his opinions on Lance and Fields. But perhaps the real calculus for the Pats is the value difference between those two and the second tier of QBs. If the Pats perceive the gap as substantial, then trading up expensively might still be the right thing. But if the value gap is smaller than we think (according to BB) then the amount of capital we should be willing to spend is important as this is still a team with significant gaps (present and future) that need to be filled. Are we a rookie QB a year away from winning big? Not in my book. And I will be surprised if BB invests heavily in a high risk position at the expense of continued roster building.Trey Lance and Justin Fields have similar ceilings: sky high. They are both true dual-threats with cannons for arms. Lance has accuracy issues whereas Fields sometimes takes too long to launch it (see-it throw-it). If you watch his second Clemson game this year you get the best of Fields. Fields cannon and accuracy will mitigate any slow decision making he has. Lance is taught to progress the opposite way as most QBs do from the FB to then the WR. With Lance he isn’t always as traditionally aggressive as you want but like Fields he hardly ever makes a turnover worthy throw.
Some like Lance more. Some like Fields more. I have more questions on if Lance can fix his accuracy vs Fields speeding things up but I’d be thrilled with both.
Everybody just calls her “Everybody.”I'm hoping to discover that he has a sister named Tula.
Feel the same way. I think there’s a chance the Pats end up with a first round QB, but a small one. Much more likely they use a 2nd-4th rounder.I suspect the Patriots are less than interested in paying to trade up to 4, and from after that pick any trade they do make would likely be contingent on Fields still being there at whatever spot they would presumably trade up to. I think they might look at Detroit at #7 as a potential trade partner, especially if Chase and Pitts are off the board, as I could see the Lions willing to get more assets to trade down (they could get a good defensive player or tackle at 15). I will most certainly be watching the Draft, which means for sure they are trading down.
The Jimmy G thing just seems more Belichick-y and likely to me. ”Outplaying” the 49ers into releasing him, and they get him for nothing, or alternatively them getting him for a song (5th), because they want would rather pay Teddy G and have their pick ready to take over. It just seems like something BB would relish.
I would love for them to get Fields, but I am resigned to the fact BB just doesn’t value the position (or whatever prospect is there) enough to pay the price to move up in the draft and get them.
These "Little Women" ... how little are they?I think there’s a chance the Pats end up with a first round QB, but a small one.
I would think Teddy would have no desire to play for the Niners unless he has a promise that JG is gone. If doesn't want to stay and compete with Darnold, he's definitely not going to want to go to SF and fight with Mac Jones and JG.I do buy that the Niners feel like they need another backup. JG's injuries have given their current backups a lot of opportunities over the past few years, and they've almost always played terribly.
Hang on...Mac Jones' real name is "McCorkle"? No way a QB named "McCorkle" can succeed in the NFL. [/Simmons]McCorkle “Mac” Jones
Please, no.Nice post SMU.
Any thoughts on Feleipe Franks? He's my favorite later round flyer guy for very little discernable reason.
Feel completely the same. I think there is a small chance, given their approach in FA and Kraft's comments on finding a long term solution. But it's hard to see BB seeing the "value".That's my gut feeling too: that they don't like them enough to pay even a fair price to move up to get them (or any other QB). I'd nearly bet my house on it.
Sounds like a pretty awesome 6th round pick. Blake Bortles without the Elway arm would be a fine 6th round pick.Please, no.
Gator fan here. While I didn’t see all of his post UF games, I can tell you from his Gator days that you want nothing to do with him. He couldn’t read a defense, get through more than one progression, or anticipate windows.
Now is it possible for him to learn all of this? Sure, I guess. But no way do I want to waste a pick on him. He has an Elway arm with a Blake Bortles brain.
I could see them moving up a few spots if the opportunity is there, but I think it's more likely that they stick at #15 (or trade down) and look to take a QB in the middle rounds. And if they decide that that QB isn't the future after a year of having him on board, then they'll address the QB situation again next off-season. Every year presents fresh opportunities.Feel completely the same. I think there is a small chance, given their approach in FA and Kraft's comments on finding a long term solution. But it's hard to see BB seeing the "value".
Edit: to be clear, it seems like Lombardi is basing this opinion on the Pats having to trade to 4. And I agree with him on that, I wouldn't give up first rounders in 2022 and 2023 either. But moving up to 7-11 is a different animal IMO - that might not even require a second first round pick (15 + 46 + 120/122/139, or 15 + 46 + 2022 2nd/3rd, something like that).
Harsh but fair.You should have, maybe you'd make better posts.
This is a fair point, and agree on trading way up - they highest I can see them going is 7 - but counter argument on OT and CB is if they draft a Slater or Darrisaw, or Horn or Surtain, those guys aren't likely to play a ton in 2021 either due to the incumbent starters at the position (unless they trade JCJ or Gilmore). So almost no matter who you take in the first round, it is more for a long term need (QB, CB, OT) than it is for 2021. So if you're going to be drafting for the future either way... might as well go for the QB IMO.I'm just not seeing them trading way up to get a player that they may not feel like they can contribute right away. They have a number of needs long-term such as OT and CB that could be addressed with #15 or trading down and picking up extra picks. Someone like a Horn/Surtain/Darrisaw/Parsons would go a long ways in shoring up some areas that are thin when looking at the long-term view of the club. Now, by all means if Fields slips to 8-9-10 then the opportunity cost to move up is not nearly as steep.
That's my gut feeling too.Feel completely the same. I think there is a small chance, given their approach in FA and Kraft's comments on finding a long term solution. But it's hard to see BB seeing the "value".
Edit: to be clear, it seems like Lombardi is basing this opinion on the Pats having to trade to 4. And I agree with him on that, I wouldn't give up first rounders in 2022 and 2023 either. But moving up to 7-11 is a different animal IMO - that might not even require a second first round pick (15 + 46 + 120/122/139, or 15 + 46 + 2022 2nd/3rd, something like that).
While I get this and deep down feel similarly, and we have no way of knowing this one way or the other, but does the same free agent bonanza occur if they were 4-12 instead? Maybe the answer is yes, I dunno. But I do think there is something to be said for culture.Great post. And the fact is the wins over Baltimore and Arizona plus that come from behind win over the Jets loom so large right now. They would literally be in position to get a QB had they not won those games. It literally sucks that they won those games IMO and I don’t want to hear the oh the culture excuse. They would be better positioned right now to strike for a QB.
If they draft Franks late, it could also allow him to be monitored by the Red Sox, who drafted him in the 31st round in 2019.Sounds like a pretty awesome 6th round pick. Blake Bortles without the Elway arm would be a fine 6th round pick.
He also improved a lot from his time at Florida to his time at Arkansas & throughout his college career.
Ignoring his injury shortened 3rd year (where his #s were really good, but small ss):
Comp % 54.6, 58.4, 68.5
Y/A 6.3, 7.6, 8.9
AY/A 5.5, 8.3, 9.5
Rating 113.3, 143.4, 163.1
He's also 6'6 1/2, 234 lbs, ran a 4.55 40, has an 82" wingspan, 4.22 shuttle, 7.16 3-cone, 32.5" vert.
For reference purposes, Kyle Pitts is 6'6, 245 lbs, ran a 4.44 40, 83 3/8" wingspan, 4.35 shuttle, 7.12 3-cone, 33.5" vert...& Pitts is a freak athlete.
Idk, I'm somewhat intrigued - even though he doesn't have an amazing feel for the game & he has a good, but not Elway-esque, arm.
I obviously don't think he's the solution for the Patriots at QB this year, or maybe even ever, so this is probably the completely wrong thread for this discussion, but was just curious how others felt about him. Like I personally would never draft Kyle Trask over him.
Which is why taking a swing at a QB at 7-8 or 10-11 is less risky - it wouldn't cripple the team's future IMO.I tend to agree that they are unlikely to make a major trade up in this draft, though it all depends on how they grade the QBs who are likely to be available after No. 3.
That said, I would love to get inside Belichick's head on this -- he must know that he doesn't have that many years left to coach. What does he have left to accomplish? There's winning the next Superbowl, and there's catching Shula for the all-time wins record. The way I think about it, the team could roll with Cam and hope that the next answer at QB falls into their laps (through another draft pick or trade) -- but that seems like the low-risk, low-reward scenario. Unless lightning strikes, the team is probably positioned to win 7-9 games a year for the foreseeable future.
Taking a big swing on the 4th QB in this draft is the high variance move. If the team spends a bunch of high-end draft capital to make that pick and the QB is a bust, the team probably stinks for the rest of Bill's tenure as head coach (and probably doesn't control its own first rounders for a couple years). That's a quagmire. But if that QB hits, Bill is immediately back in contention and has a rookie-scale QB contract to build around for the twilight of his career.
Yeah, my talk that I think he's making a move isn't a prediction he's going to #4. It's simply a feeling that he's going to jump when he sees Lance or Fields slide into the sweet spot.Which is why taking a swing at a QB at 7-8 or 10-11 is less risky - it wouldn't cripple the team's future IMO.
Using this as a jumping off point, but a question to you and other draftniks in this thread: why did the league miss so badly on Mahomes? While he was the 2nd QB picked in the 2017 draft and not the 4th/5th, he also didn't get picked until 10th. So even as of four years ago it is clear that the league wasn't evaluating QBs correctly (and I doubt it has improved a ton in the four years since).Obviously one can't draft a QB, let alone the 4th or 5th QB taken in the draft, to be Mahomeslike
I blame Andre Ware.Using this as a jumping off point, but a question to you and other draftniks in this thread: why did the league miss so badly on Mahomes? While he was the 2nd QB picked in the 2017 draft and not the 4th/5th, he also didn't get picked until 10th. So even as of four years ago it is clear that the league wasn't evaluating QBs correctly (and I doubt it has improved a ton in the four years since).
While the 4th or 5th QB taken is unlikely to be anything close to Mahomes, ever, wouldn't the ceiling for a Fields or a Lance be pretty similar to a Mahomes?
Well in 2018, four QBs were taken ahead of Lamar Jackson, who's already been a league MVP. Mayfield looks like he's going to be good. Darnold isn't close to as good as Jackson, and he was taken 29 spots before Jackson. Josh Allen was a rough project early but now looks fantastic. Rosen looks awful, and he was taken 22 spots ahead of Jackson.Using this as a jumping off point, but a question to you and other draftniks in this thread: why did the league miss so badly on Mahomes? While he was the 2nd QB picked in the 2017 draft and not the 4th/5th, he also didn't get picked until 10th. So even as of four years ago it is clear that the league wasn't evaluating QBs correctly (and I doubt it has improved a ton in the four years since).
While the 4th or 5th QB taken is unlikely to be anything close to Mahomes, ever, wouldn't the ceiling for a Fields or a Lance be pretty similar to a Mahomes?
It’s possible, but I would say unlikely. Which is why teams at the top of the draft go for the safety of Trevor Lawrence. You know his floor is pretty darn high.Well in 2018, four QBs were taken ahead of Lamar Jackson, who's already been a league MVP. Mayfield looks like he's going to be good. Darnold isn't close to as good as Jackson, and he was taken 29 spots before Jackson. Josh Allen was a rough project early but now looks fantastic. Rosen looks awful, and he was taken 22 spots ahead of Jackson.
I think it's not easy to get the QB pick right. And here's the thing: We all know Lawrence is going #1, and rightfully so, but it's entirely possible that one of the QBs selected after him turns out to be better (maybe even much better).
This is an excellent point.It’s possible, but I would say unlikely. Which is why teams at the top of the draft go for the safety of Trevor Lawrence. You know his floor is pretty darn high.
Also, we’re talking about Lamar Jackson like he didn’t win the Heisman Trophy. The reason people like Mayfield and Rosen went ahead of Lamar is because teams didn’t know how to use a QB like Lamar Jackson at the pro level. The Baltimore Ravens rebuilt their entire offense around him, which is what good teams do. If he ended up with a coaching staff that decided to try and force his square peg into a round hole, which happens all the time, we would likely be talking about Jackson as a bust.
Which goes back to the crux of any young QB or any young player period. Circumstance matters almost as much as their individual talent. If Lawrence goes to Jacksonville and Urban Meyer’s offense sucks and he decides after three years he’s bailing, maybe people are calling Lawrence a bust.
Thanks, this all makes sense. Kind of crazy that Watson (current situation aside) went 12th too. Two of the top 4-5 QBs in the league and they weren't top 5 picks.I blame Andre Ware.
The main knocks on him were being a system QB, occasionally bad mechanics, no experience under center or huddling & trying to force the ball into tight coverage too often.
Lots of GMs apparently had him pegged as a 2nd to 4th round pick.
I think the main thing they missed was that his work ethic, leadership, arm strength & talent (all of which were mentioned in scouting reports) meant that all his weaknesses were fixable ones.
To me Jackson is a very different case due to his style of play. I'm still not sure how good he will be long term.Well in 2018, four QBs were taken ahead of Lamar Jackson, who's already been a league MVP. Mayfield looks like he's going to be good. Darnold isn't close to as good as Jackson, and he was taken 29 spots before Jackson. Josh Allen was a rough project early but now looks fantastic. Rosen looks awful, and he was taken 22 spots ahead of Jackson.
I think it's not easy to get the QB pick right. And here's the thing: We all know Lawrence is going #1, and rightfully so, but it's entirely possible that one of the QBs selected after him turns out to be better (maybe even much better).
The primary knock on Watson coming out is quite similar to Fields actually - simplified offense with a tendency to focus on 1st read rather than progressing through multiple reads.Thanks, this all makes sense. Kind of crazy that Watson (current situation aside) went 12th too. Two of the top 4-5 QBs in the league and they weren't top 5 picks.
Which to me says that at some point the Pats have to take a bit of a risk, and now seems like the right time to do it if it's not crazy cost prohibitive (i.e., giving up future firsts)The primary knock on Watson coming out is quite similar to Fields actually - simplified offense with a tendency to focus on 1st read rather than progressing through multiple reads.
By all the criteria listed about being pro-ready, Fields should be considered even more so. He’s poised in the pocket. He reads the field well, despite reports to the contrary. Ohio State’s offense had the most QB-demanding scheme of all of the 2021 prospects. There aren’t a lot of simple, predetermined reads in the Ohio State offense. Fields actually had to go through progressions.
He had one of the lowest RPO rates in college football. 70% of Fields’ yards came before the catch in 2020. Jones? Just 47%. Fields is far from a “one-read” quarterback, and the fact that that narrative exists for him but not Jones is negligent and ignorant.
Of course it's less risky, it's also almost certainly not going to produce a starter. The hit rate after the first round drops off a cliff, even with Bill picking the odds of getting a consistent starter out of 10-11 (or even 7-8) are in the low single digits.Which is why taking a swing at a QB at 7-8 or 10-11 is less risky - it wouldn't cripple the team's future IMO.
The Leaf hype is pretty amazing in retrospect. Leaf was a bad-bodied unathletic guy who completed 55% of his passes & after being extremely lightly recruited out of high school, rose to prominence on the back of a 10-2 Washington State season which included 58-0 & 77-7 victories over Boise & SW Louisiana, & a 21-16 Rose Bowl loss to Michigan.There is always a huge amount of risk involved. Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf were considered roughly equally good prospects and look at their careers. Great QBs have come from late in the draft or not been drafted at all too.
But yeah, obviously it's an inexact science & no matter how well & thoroughly you do your job, there's a chance whoever you draft will bust for whatever reason.Guys can be jerks, but I've never seen a guy that worked harder at alienating his teammates. Junior Seau, Rodney Harrison, they came to me and said this guy is killing me.