Patriots Tag Dugger
- Thread starter Dr. Gonzo
- Start date
Likewise on tagging Onwenu. Perhaps they have a long term deal worked out for him and will wait until the new league year to announce that?
More information on the transition tag from Chad Graff:
The transition tag is different from the franchise tag. This means Dugger would get a one-year deal from the Pats that’s the average of the top 10 safeties (instead of top 5).
But Dugger can still negotiate with others and Pats have chance to match that offer.
The transition tag is different from the franchise tag. This means Dugger would get a one-year deal from the Pats that’s the average of the top 10 safeties (instead of top 5).
But Dugger can still negotiate with others and Pats have chance to match that offer.
The transition tag value for safeties is 13.8M - if they can’t ultimately extend him, then that’s fine from a cap perspective given how much cap space they have to work with. For context, the franchise tag for safeties is 17.1M.
There is a downside: while, like the non-exclusive franchise tag, they get the right to match and contract offered by another team, they won’t get draft compensation if they don’t match another offer.
There is a downside: while, like the non-exclusive franchise tag, they get the right to match and contract offered by another team, they won’t get draft compensation if they don’t match another offer.
Transition tag makes some sense for him. Top 10 safety salaries is more palatable, and if he gets bowled over by an offer, we can walk away from it.
Owenu was the obvious choice for this. Duggar doesn’t deserve it and it’s not as big a need as Tackle. Unless they have a deal in place with Owenu, this is very dumb.
Hopefully they have a deal in place with Owenu, though I doubt it.
Hopefully they have a deal in place with Owenu, though I doubt it.
I don't really see the point of this. He's a good but not irreplaceable player at a lower value position. What's his market really going to be? Probably right around this dollar figure on a three-year deal? Maybe a four year deal? I guess now they let tye market determine that. Seems like a waste of a tag. Owenu would have at least secured a valuable position and/or compensation.
makes sense, safety is one of the positions where top 10 makes a big difference from top 5.
I don't see them having interest in tagging Onwenu at $21M, not a great investment for a tweener. I think they let him look at the market compared to their offer and hope he comes back. A straight tag taking that much of the cap didn't make much sense.
I don't see them having interest in tagging Onwenu at $21M, not a great investment for a tweener. I think they let him look at the market compared to their offer and hope he comes back. A straight tag taking that much of the cap didn't make much sense.
So if a deal is to get done, it probably looks somewhere like 4/52 with 26M guaranteed or maybe 5/67.5 with 33M guaranteed. Unless someone really wants to put him in that top tier of safeties, but I don't think he's getting 4/80 or something like that.
This team has a ton of cap space and there’s a salary floor, so at some point they’re going to need to “overpay” for talent, based on the position they are in. Right now they have zero capable Tackles and will likely be starting a rookie QB, so I’d argue a moderate overpay at that position for a young player entering his physical prime is exactly how the money ought to be spent.
So they tagged Dugger. If they now reach a long term agreement with him can they reuse the tag on Onwenu?
I don't think it makes sense because it's a 1 year placeholder for a guy who is a tweener and just fired his agent (which tells me he is unhappy with what is out there). The worst situation is having him sign the tag, then next year you're in a worse spot because you can't tag him again. I think they like Onwenu, I think they'd like him back at the right price, but he's also not a perfect scheme fit there, and a 1 year patch at the expense of 2-3 other players (maybe more depending how you stack the bonuses) is a tough sell. I'd much rather have Jonah Williams on a longer deal that means a cap hit in the 12-14M range this year than Onwenwu on a 1 year deal with a $21M cap hit
They need two Tackles, though, not one. They could sign both and draft a third Tackle in the first 2-3 rounds to see if Owenu becomes expendable after the first year, and this is all assuming Owenu wouldn’t sign more reasonable long-term deal the Pats could match. If so, they could wait until a later round to grab a backup Tackle and use an earlier pick on another need. Getting two reliable tackles for whomever they draft at Number 3 should be priority number one this offseason imo.
Tbh, I don’t even really like Duggar at average starter money anymore. It’s Pretty rare you see a guy his age regress during a contract season, and that’s a red flag for me.
Onwenu on a 1 year $21M deal is a terrible use of resources is my point. He's being projected at something like 4/58 to 4/62. So he'd have zero incentive to not just accept the tag, then you haven't done anything at tackle long term and you've passed on a bunch of other potential long term upgrades at various positions in order to patch a hole for 1 year with a player who is a less than ideal scheme fit.
I'd much rather for example... sign a guy like Elumenor and a guy like Ridley, and maybe 1 more rotation player for that money, especially since you;d have all of those guys for multiple years.
Edit- I mean if you're just throwing huge money at a 1 year fix at T, just blow away Tyron Smith with an offer, it probably takes a whole lot less than a $21M cap hit and he's a much better player (Onwenu's youth means nothing on 1 year deals).
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I don’t really agree that it’s a terrible use, given the situation the Patriots are in. That’s where we disagree it seems. We’ll see how it shakes out. If he signs somewhere else for 4/75 and we end up with a 3rd round rookie Tackle starting for Jayden Daniels, I will be a sad Panda.
Isn't the problem with Onwenu his fit with the philosophy of the new line coach(s)? I thought they were looking to get more athletic and fast, not power based which IIRC was more Onwenu's forte.
With Seattle cutting Adams and Diggs, the safety market is starting to get pretty deep. Feels like this would lower the price tag for Duggar...
If your scheme is going to not involve Onwenu in a market with almost no tackles that you didn't already have, I'd argue the entire plan is flawed. Like when Patricia and Judge wanted to do zone blocking with the wrong personnel.
Now if they have guys identified to plug and play without Onwenu, then that's a different story. I dont know where those OT's are coming from.
I'm with you on tagging Onwenu. Let's solve that problem, not just band-aid it.
Question about Eleumenor--did he like get way better in the last couple of years. Last we saw him, he was a best-served as a swing and exposed as a starter, even at RT.
I think the key in the tag is... would you be pretty happy if the guy just takes it. If Dugger just says "I'll play on the tag" the Patriots are probably feeling alright, it's a very reasonable 1 year deal.
I don’t think Onwenu and Williams are particularly apples to apples though since Onwenu would be horribly miscast at LT and Williams can sort of play it (not at a 14M AAV level but he’s going to get paid at least that much to do it)
I also don’t understand the concern with the extra 7M in your scenario for 2024. The Pats have plenty of cap space, no tackles and Onwenu is clearly the best RT out there despite also clearly not being worth 21M. Tagging him, while an overpay, at least guarantees you one more year of having at least one NFL caliber tackle while you work out a longer deal or find someone in the next 2 draft classes or 2025 free agency.
If they go into next year with a signing like George Fant and some other bargain bin guy (Yosh Nijman?) or Calvin Anderson as the starters, the offense is doomed.
With 100M someone, probably a few someones, are going to get overpaid. I’d rather a short term overpay on a youngish goodish player at a position of extreme need and extreme scarcity than rely on trash heaps, injury reclamations or draft pick lottery tickets
I just don’t see what the plan is if Onwenu leaves. Maybe sign Tyron Smith and Isaiah Wynn and hope they give you 13 games healthy combined? Jonah Williams is average on his best days, and durable, so he’s going to get a big (probably bad) contract from someone. And even if that’s the Pats, they still need another tackle somewhere.
Tagging him gives you another year to solve that problem though.
I’m fine with not tagging him, but they need two tackles and there aren’t many out there even in the same range of talent of Onwenu (who is overrated IMO but still pretty solid). I don’t think one year prove it deals to a Bechton or dilapidated Tyron Smith are solutions, and giving mediocrities like Jonah Williams big contracts may “solve” it but the solution isn’t really a great one.
I don't think Onwenu is clearly the best RT out there. I think he might be the best long term RT out there, but short term I'm not sure he is. I think for an example that Trent Brown is significantly better as a tackle right now and projecting for next season.
Onwenu has part of one season as a solid but not spectacular RT. I don't know that the Patriots (or the league as a whole) sees him as a clearly better RT than Williams, Eleumenor, Becton, etc. all those guys have at least 1 year at tackle where they were as good or better than Onwenu last season. I know a lot of tied in people say a big chunk of the league have him as a guard on their boards, even the Patriots wanted to move him back to G when McDermott got healthy (graded out similarly last year) but then they had to play both given Brown's injury.
I think a 1 year massive overpay for a RT is just not a good approach to the offseason, especially for a guy who isn't elite. If we were talking Tyron Smith? Sure, Sewell...sure, MAilata... absolutely... but to massively overpay for one year on a mediocre player (he's a very good guard a mediocre tackle) on the less valuable side.... no. I'd rather the (arguable) downgrade to Eleumenor or even playing McDermott with a Becton or Fant behind him, and signing players who will help you long term.
Honestly, I think it's highly likely Onwenu is back next year on a long term deal, and not giving him the option for a massive 1 year all guaranteed deal probably makes that more likely to happen, by eliminating the easy fallback.
I'm just saying that buying one year, the year after going 4-13 in particular, is not where I'd want to spend a finite--albeit expanded--cap amount. So many holes to fill.
I'd rather lock that position in and be done with it for a few years. You can still draft a project OT and a proper LT.
Agree to disagree I suppose. I don’t think they’re likely to find a “proper LT” in the draft without getting a bit lucky, and if they draft a QB, having turnstiles at both tackle spots is a recipe for disaster.
I also question as to why locking in a position with mediocre/below average play at a decent hit to your cap (presumably in future years when the team is actually trying to contend) is more preferable to burning an extra 7M or whatever as a bridge/insurance (if you whiff on the draft pick) and help ensure your rookie isn’t pounded into the ground.
Now if the plan is avoid QB in the draft and take Alt 3rd, sure, roll with Calvin Anderson or sign George Fant or whomever. But running it back next year with moderately-to-significantly worse tackles that Onwenu/Brown next year is a recipe for disaster for a rookie QB IMO
I guess I don't get this argument because....
1. You aren't unable to bring back Onwenu if you don't tag him... in fact you likely can bring him back significantly cheaper and longer term.... nobody is coming anywhere near $21M for him, and given the cap space if the Patriots want him they can almost certainly top any offer.
2. Onwenu was.... not that great of a RT? I mean he was okay, but nobody grades him out as a GOOD (say top 20?) T, and most people think he's a guard (I was checking around, in their FA previews both ESPN and CBS classify him as a guard and their commentary is that most teams see him as a guard) now some teams (NE may be one of them) think he has long term potential at tackle, but he's not some no doubt top tier tackle.
The idea that you would pay a 14-15M a year type player 21M for one year and essentially surrender any chance to sign him long-term because you're worried that you might take a small downgrade at the position is crazy to me.
Edit- to make the $ issue clearer... here are the right tackles making over 20M a year...... () yep none. McGlinchey a better more experienced tackle with prototype body drafted top 10, signed last year for a 17.5M AAV, 35M fully guaranteed, $6M year 1 cap hit, 18.5M year 2 (may actually hit, but may also get re-negotiated). Onwenu is probably looking at a 14-15M AAV, maybe 16 if someone was desperate, with what, 28-32M guaranteed... why would he take that over 21M all guaranteed then itting the market again at age 27?
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When was Becton ever as good as Onwenu? I think Onwenu is a bit overrated at tackle but Becton has been a disaster. Perhaps Williams is in the same league but he’s also had some dreadful stretches and doesn’t seem a good bet to be worth a multi year big money contract.
I don’t see going from Onwenu to the trash out there as a small downgrade nor do I think it would preclude a long term deal. We see tags used all the time to work out long term deals
I’m of the mindset that overpaying him for one year and locking up for sure one tackle spot in a year when they have tons of cap space (some of which will assuredly be “wasted” on overpays) is a better idea than risk losing him entirely or paying someone worse for 4-5 year
The worst thing this team can do for a rookie QB is put trash tackles out there. The chances of getting two useful tackles, neither of whom is Onwenu, is slim and if he hits the open market he’s going to probably get big dollars from somewhere else
Perhaps I’m too risk averse but paying Onwenu too much for one year and risking that he doesn’t want to negotiate or sign long term before next April is preferable than signing a worse player long term or signing a much worse player and screwing your new QB over.
That happens when the tag is close to the AAV and well below the guarantee of the multi-year deal. There is a reason you don't see mid-tier guys getting tagged then working out a deal. like ARI isn't tagging Hollywood Brown. Honestly if you were tagging a T it would probably be Trent Brown who for all his myriad flaws is a lot better player than Onwenu at the tackle position. Though I wouldn't.
I look at it and I see a 21M cap hit. You could sign Tyron Smith, Clavin Ridley, Kendrick Bourne and Jonah Williams likely all into a 21M cap hit for 2024.
Looking at 2023 21M in cap space got you the 1st years of these deals: Hargrave, McGlinchey, Dean and a WR (Hopkins, Thielen, Juju, OBJ, Lazard take your pick). That's arguably the top defensive player, top CB, top T and a top 3-5 WR in that market. Now you probably wouldn't load all of those together the same, but 3 of the 4 into 21M... sure.
I also think you're overestimating how good a RT Onwenu was last year. He's a really good guard, as a RT he's good enough to bring him back, maybe with a plan to slide him back inside in a year or two (or trade him if Sow/Strange work out), but not a no doubt guy.
To me, I don't have all that much concern that you won't be able to get a comparable body at RT, and honestly I think they have a very good chance of bringing him back. I think you're locking in one of your worst options by tagging him, surrendering a ton of upside not just at T but elsewhere, and all for okay RT play for one year (a year where you might not even be playing your rookie QB for much of it anyway).
Based on how things have gone (and his agent firing) I think Onwenu's future likely comes down to whether he wants to play tackle or not, and whether the Patriots think he's a tackle. If both are true, I bet they beat any other offers and he's back, if only 1 of the 2 is true, I bet he ends up somewhere else. One thing I'm curious about is there were rumors that he didn't want to play tackle, and preferred guard, will be interesting to see if that is true in FA, as once he realizes he won't get top tackle money.... mid-tier RT money and high tier RG money are similar.
Hopefully Dugger finds someone else to overpay him and the net is NE wasted the transition tag. Dugger is one of the worst coverage S in the NFL and is largely redundant with Jabril Peppers a very capable run stopping S at a fraction of the price. I'd much rather see NE sign Kamren Curl of WAS or McKinney of NYG who are both adequate in run stopping and are vastly superior to Dugger in coverage.
Run stopping S who are a liability in coverage should be near the bottom of the list of cap % on a defense. Really can't think of a worse outlay of cap space on defense.
Run stopping S who are a liability in coverage should be near the bottom of the list of cap % on a defense. Really can't think of a worse outlay of cap space on defense.
This is probably good for the Dugger market
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1765470236248330528
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1765470236248330528
Given all the safeties that are on the market, it seems pretty clear that the Patriots did not need the tag dugger. As was speculated by multiple posters here earlier in the off season, you could replace a lot of what he does for a lot less money. You would probably also end up with a better coverage guy while peppers nails down his spot.
One thing I learned the other day, that I did not know prior, is that if you transition tag someone, they get an offer and you do NOT match, then you lose the ability to transition tag anyone for as long as that contract is. So if the Bills sign Digger to a 5-year deal, and the Pats don't match, then no more transition tag until 2029.
A guess here is that the number of S now on the market, the tag may benefit NE here. It sure seems like the market will value S less than originally thought (similar to RB). With that in mind, I think that will mean teams will go after the FA with 2-3 year deal at 6-10M per year with something like 60% guaranteed and chunks going to bonus. That could mean that once a few S sign with other teams, NE can structure a deal at something in that salary and years range and lock him up at less than initially anticipated. Of course, Duggar can play on the tag, but he would be right back at this spot with a depressed market.
https://nflpaweb.blob.core.windows.net/media/Default/NFLPA/CBA2020/NFL-NFLPA_CBA_March_5_2020.pdf
I'm not seeing it in the CBA, where is that one coming from?
By using the transition tag, aren't the Patriots obligated to offer a contract that is at least the average value of the top 10 safeties? If so, all they've done is handcuff themselves to overpaying a one dimensional player in a super deep positional market.
They are only on the hook for one year at 13.5 million if he plays under the tag, I believe. It's not a killer in this market. Won't even stop them from bringing in another vet safety who's better in coverage at a reasonable figure. It's not the best use of the cap but they have space.
they are obligated to pay him 13M if he signs the tag and they don't withdraw it. Nothing else. If they withdraw it, they are bound to nothing. If he gets an offer elsewhere they can match, they can also offer him any long-term deal they want. On Dugger's end, he can sign an offer sheet with any team, negotiate any long-term deal he wants in NE, or he can sign the tag and play under a 1 year 13M deal. (he likely really doesn't want that given his age)