Patriots Playoff Fear Factor
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
I thought about going with the "Unless you're '13 Seattle" but that just reminds me of how the Patriots managed to lose to those orange fucks in the AFCCG.
I get the history obviously, but Giants would be a pretty nice matchup for the Patriots. The Pats tackle well and keep plays in front of them while the Giant offense is basically dick around and hope Eli doesnt do something idiotic before OBJ can house an 8 yard slant or catch a bomb or the defense can put them in position to score. OBJ's a great player, and that defense is obviously playing well, but Id like the Pats chances if they scored even 17 in that matchup.
You had to say 17, didn't you?
The other factor with the Giants is - as we all know - BB likes to take away the other team's best weapon. The Giants really only have one. Triple team ODB, knock him around and get in his head. Let Eli try to hook up with the ghost of Victor Cruz and Shepard or hand off to the motley crew in the backfield.
And there's no TE of note to match up with. It's basically play in a 2 deep shell and keep OBJ in front.
Seattle is the only team that can beat u at 100% if u play at your level
1 Sea
2NYG they beat Dallas twice
3 Dal
4 Oak on road only
5 KC on road only
6 GB
7 Pitt family other than me are big pitt fans i see them every week they have zero def only way they couild beat u is if they bought denver def ne is at least 14 pts better then pitt home or away
1 Sea
2NYG they beat Dallas twice
3 Dal
4 Oak on road only
5 KC on road only
6 GB
7 Pitt family other than me are big pitt fans i see them every week they have zero def only way they couild beat u is if they bought denver def ne is at least 14 pts better then pitt home or away
u are worryed about denver the way denver played the last 3 weeks we wouild lose to CLE
Car was as good as denver they just partyed the whole 2 weeks while denver learned form 48
Seattle beat the Patriots at home so they are an easy team to fear...but man, they've looked terrible at times too. It's difficult to know what Seattle team shows up.
I wouldn't be scared of the Giants other than irrational fairy dust bullshit. Their offense is pretty awful and their defense, while very good, isn't the mauling D-line style like it was in 2007/2011...esp with JPP injured. I agree with those who say it would actually be a pretty decent matchup for NE.
GB has an awful defense too but if Aaron Rodgers has found his mojo again that could be pretty scary.
Dallas' offensive line is pretty terrifying and losing one of those games where they hold the ball all day is a possibility, but their defense is pretty mediocre. They've been the least Jekyll and Hyde though of the NFC teams...with the exception of laying a turd a couple weeks ago at New York.
A road game against Oakland is the only scary thing in-conference and the Patriots can make that moot pretty soon.
I wouldn't be scared of the Giants other than irrational fairy dust bullshit. Their offense is pretty awful and their defense, while very good, isn't the mauling D-line style like it was in 2007/2011...esp with JPP injured. I agree with those who say it would actually be a pretty decent matchup for NE.
GB has an awful defense too but if Aaron Rodgers has found his mojo again that could be pretty scary.
Dallas' offensive line is pretty terrifying and losing one of those games where they hold the ball all day is a possibility, but their defense is pretty mediocre. They've been the least Jekyll and Hyde though of the NFC teams...with the exception of laying a turd a couple weeks ago at New York.
A road game against Oakland is the only scary thing in-conference and the Patriots can make that moot pretty soon.
I want the Giants. Bring me the Giants. Bring me Eli! GIANTS GIANTS GIANTS. MMMMM....GIANTS.
1. Seattle
2. Atlanta
3. Pitt
4. Dallas
5. Oakland
6. Green Bay
...
...
30. Browns
31. New York Football Giants
Dallas has a weak pass rush. Maybe Gregory helps a bit, but how often does Tom Brady lose to teams with non-elite pass rushes, let alone weak ones?
1. Seattle
2. Atlanta
3. Pitt
4. Dallas
5. Oakland
6. Green Bay
...
...
30. Browns
31. New York Football Giants
Dallas has a weak pass rush. Maybe Gregory helps a bit, but how often does Tom Brady lose to teams with non-elite pass rushes, let alone weak ones?
Would you give them back Thomas if we could get back Gronk?
If so, then we're worse off than the last time we played them.
As some have mentioned there are two answers to this question, or more precisely, two questions subtly different from each other:
1. Which team do you think the Patriots might have trouble beating?
2. Which team do you not want to lose to?
The answer to #2 is pretty clearly and universally the Giants, with the Broncos and Ravens and Steelers coming behind them for more traditional "Hated Rival" reasons.
The answer to #1 is more varied and nuanced and probably boils down more to "which teams are bad matchups for the Pats:
Seattle is the top of my list. Wilson has shown the ability to beat this defense repeatedly. And Michael Bennett can be the X factor that the Pats really had no answer for in 2014, and avoided earlier this year.
I think teams who can put up a lot of points thru the air may be the worst match for the Pats, so Atlanta, maybe Green Bay, maybe Oakland.
I don't see the Cowboys, Chiefs or Steelers as bad matchups at all.
1. Which team do you think the Patriots might have trouble beating?
2. Which team do you not want to lose to?
The answer to #2 is pretty clearly and universally the Giants, with the Broncos and Ravens and Steelers coming behind them for more traditional "Hated Rival" reasons.
The answer to #1 is more varied and nuanced and probably boils down more to "which teams are bad matchups for the Pats:
Seattle is the top of my list. Wilson has shown the ability to beat this defense repeatedly. And Michael Bennett can be the X factor that the Pats really had no answer for in 2014, and avoided earlier this year.
I think teams who can put up a lot of points thru the air may be the worst match for the Pats, so Atlanta, maybe Green Bay, maybe Oakland.
I don't see the Cowboys, Chiefs or Steelers as bad matchups at all.
If there's anything to "cosmic bookends" and "we need to avenge the Giants losses!!" then that applies in reverse to Seattle. I want no part of them in the SB.
But that's waayyyy premature.
I want to avoid Pitt in the divisional round. I'd rather face anyone else at home, even the Ravens.
But that's waayyyy premature.
I want to avoid Pitt in the divisional round. I'd rather face anyone else at home, even the Ravens.
Lewis is playing and seems to be getting better every week though. I'd say Thomas > Gronk - Lewis.
Any injuries between now and the playoffs are obviously the key. Besides Gronk we have been pretty healthy this year. Off the top of my head:
-Vollmer, but he was lost in preseason so there was time to adjust.
-Garoppolo and Brissett but they were just stopgaps anyway, of course
-Amendola, could return for playoffs
-Hightower, Bennett, Slater, a couple others banged up but have mostly played
-Other very minor injuries such as Brown last week
Gronk is huge but this feels like a healthier year than some others.
My reasoning is that I expect home versus away will make a big difference in the effect of the pass rush/ varying the snap count- for both teams. On a neutral field, I think NE is the better team but not by a lot. Not a scientific study but HF seems to give NE an edge in neutralizing pass rush (we're all scarred from the AFCCG last year). All 3 home playoff losses in the BB era (09 Ravens, 10 Jets, 12 Ravens) were against teams with very good defenses. BB always seems to find a way to beat offensive teams, especially at home.
Away (or just not at home) is a different story. (Both Giants SBs), 3 losses in Denver, at Colts.
Also, history.
BB/Brady era Playoffs
Home 14-3
Away 3-4 (and haven't won on the road since 06)
SB 4-2
On the other hand, they are the only undefeated team on the road this year and they just beat Denver in Denver allowing very little pressure on Brady. The years when they had road games, they were usually a worse team in the regular season kind of by definition than the team they lost to.
I definitely agree the crowd made a difference in Denver last year but I'm not sure sure about the other road losses. In 2012-13 the defense got destroyed by Peyton, they had no Gronk and Austin Collie was their #3 WR. 2010-11 and 07-08, hard to say whether it was the crowd or just the Giants defensive line being great. Ravens, Jets losses were at home and 05 and 06 weren't really on the offensive lines IIRC.
I definitely agree the crowd made a difference in Denver last year but I'm not sure sure about the other road losses. In 2012-13 the defense got destroyed by Peyton, they had no Gronk and Austin Collie was their #3 WR. 2010-11 and 07-08, hard to say whether it was the crowd or just the Giants defensive line being great. Ravens, Jets losses were at home and 05 and 06 weren't really on the offensive lines IIRC.
It definitely wasn't the crowd for the Giants losses because they were neutral site games in the Super Bowl and it was definitely their defensive line.
Just to flip the script around for a moment: as a fan of an NFC team which could conceivably reach the Super Bowl, I can honestly say that I'm not afraid of the Patriots. Afraid of Belichick and Brady? Yes. Afraid of the team as a whole? Nope. They've played the easiest schedule this season according to DVOA (Miami is close at #31, and then there's a big gap to Tennessee at #30), to the point that it's hard to find a truly impressive win on their resume when I remember that Landry Jones was at QB for the Steelers game. (Baltimore and @Denver the past two weeks are decent, but apart from that....) They're obviously a very good team, but as much as you guys don't seem too worried by the rest of the field, the feeling might be more mutual than normal this year.
This isn't a dominant Patriots team so it's not unreasonable, particularly with Gronk out. Who's your favorite squadron?
538's odds show that the Pats are easily the biggest single team favorite to win the super bowl, but not a bigger favorite than the field. Not that I think their method is particularly great, but it passes the smell test for me.
That said, I'd fear a final game matchup with the Seahawks. No doubt they'd be very up for the rematch.
That said, I'd fear a final game matchup with the Seahawks. No doubt they'd be very up for the rematch.
Seattle, for obvious reasons, and Pittsburgh, for experienced offensive firepower, bother me the most. The Giants/Karma thing has an appeal to it; but I don't see this NYG team as being of the same caliber as the others.
Oakland, to me, is the complete wild card (no pun intended). There's something about Carr that makes me think he'll win a SB some day. OTOH, I suspect Jack Del Rio would do something to screw it up
Oakland, to me, is the complete wild card (no pun intended). There's something about Carr that makes me think he'll win a SB some day. OTOH, I suspect Jack Del Rio would do something to screw it up
Del Rio didn't do too badly as DC of the Broncos from 2012-14. That he couldn't beat the 2005 or 2007 Patriots in the playoffs isn't exactly a black mark against him.
Del Rio has actually really impressed me this year. He has a very calm demeanor on the sidelines. I tend to like guys who don't get too riled up.
The Falcons. (I know, even reaching the Super Bowl to where they might play the Patriots is still a distant fantasy, but this offense - in no small part thanks to Alex Mack and the offensive line - has me reaching for the stars.)
If we can get HFA I like our chances in the AFC. I would say not getting HFA would make me more nervous than any single AFC team. Playing at home, I think KC, OAK and PIT in that order have the best chance to beat us.
If we made the SB I think Seattle is our worst matchup. GB and DAL both seem like teams that have big flaws but also a plausible path to victory against us, not sure how to rank them but I like BB's chances of beating either one in the film room. ATL and NYG don't really scare me.
If we made the SB I think Seattle is our worst matchup. GB and DAL both seem like teams that have big flaws but also a plausible path to victory against us, not sure how to rank them but I like BB's chances of beating either one in the film room. ATL and NYG don't really scare me.
He got 2 rings..You saying the Panthers were easy last year? I agree that the Bears with Rex Grossman at QB were a pushover but the Panthers were a pretty good team last year.
The Panthers were a pretty good team, but they were the definition of a paper tiger last year.
Because they lost? Talk about post hoc ergo propter hoc.
The Panthers were the runaway NFL leaders in point differential last year at +192; the Cardinals were the only team within 40 points of them, and they were summarily dispatched by Carolina 49-15 in the NFCCG. Denver had a +56 point differential, not to mention 3 more losses. The line for the SB favored Caroline by 5. In no sense of the word were they a pushover. The Broncos' D and ST were the difference in the game (if you go by expected points, or my eyes). The Panthers fumbled 4 times and lost 3 of them, while Denver only lost 1 of 3. Throw in a missed FG, a ton more penalties by CAR, and you add up to the Broncos outperforming expectations. But let's not forget Carolina outgained Denver 315-194, and got 21 first downs to Denver's 11.
Paper tiger my ass. Denver earned that victory, and I say that while hating their guts.
The Panthers were the runaway NFL leaders in point differential last year at +192; the Cardinals were the only team within 40 points of them, and they were summarily dispatched by Carolina 49-15 in the NFCCG. Denver had a +56 point differential, not to mention 3 more losses. The line for the SB favored Caroline by 5. In no sense of the word were they a pushover. The Broncos' D and ST were the difference in the game (if you go by expected points, or my eyes). The Panthers fumbled 4 times and lost 3 of them, while Denver only lost 1 of 3. Throw in a missed FG, a ton more penalties by CAR, and you add up to the Broncos outperforming expectations. But let's not forget Carolina outgained Denver 315-194, and got 21 first downs to Denver's 11.
Paper tiger my ass. Denver earned that victory, and I say that while hating their guts.
No because they weren't as good as their record said they were. There's nothing post hoc about it. It was stated - here and on many sites that analyze the game - that they were benefitted by a soft schedule. (I generally assume your account is a reincarnation of another one so you may have seen people much smarter than myself make pretty solid cases to that extent and did so throughout the season).
I'm not saying they weren't a good team and I'm not trying to kick dirt on Denver. Im saying they weren't a team that should have been 15-1 or gone undefeated for fifteen weeks. If you disagree that's all well and good, but it's not an opinion any different than I held during the season last year watching them or that Vegas held, through the conference championship were they were only a 3 point favorite at home. I don't have access to PFO style advanced analytics, but if you have something to add I'd be glad to hear. Regardless, my statement has nothing to do with whether they won or lost in the SB.
There's a long way between "they shouldn't have gone 15-1", which I would agree with, and "they were the definition of a paper tiger". If you want to adjust for schedule, SRS had the Panthers at +8.1, behind the Cardinals (12.3) and Seahawks (11.3), but still comfortably ahead of the Broncos (5.8) or, for that matter, the Patriots (7.0). If you'd prefer DVOA, CAR at 26.0% was well ahead of of DEN (17.7%), though they were bunched in a group with CIN, KC and ARI and meaningfully behind SEA (38.1%) in that measure. The most relevant Vegas line was for the actual competition we're discussing, which favored Carolina by 5, so I'm not sure why you'd argue that Vegas viewed them as a "paper tiger" either.
The (weak) joke was that I'm not acknowledging his ring from last year because he was awful. But thanks for the heads up - I had completely forgotten about a game that took place 11 months ago!
If it makes you feel better, this is richgedman's ghost official warning that if he doesn't start to realize that other people are trying to have fun and be clever instead of just assuming everyone's a dumbass who doesn't know what they're talking about, he may have to find another place to talk Pats.
Holy shit, the Pats last playoff on the road was Martyball's finale in San Diego. Time flies.
An interesting question is whether than 06 Chargers team or the 11 Packers are the best team of the last 15 years to miss the Super Bowl.
If an excellent pass rush is the Pats' kryptonite, then aren't the Raiders right up there? The mitigating factor being Carr's finger.