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Out Out, Brief Panda: Pablo To Have Shoulder Surgery

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by cahlton, Apr 14, 2016.

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  1. cahlton

    cahlton Member SoSH Member

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    The broken, disastrous marriage between Pablo Sandoval and the Boston Red Sox, an ill-fated union exceeded in its dysfunction only by a Kardashian coupling, could be nearing its end. Here’s how ugly it has gotten, major league sources told Yahoo Sports: Sandoval wants to stay in Boston only if he can play every day, and the Red Sox have no intention of playing him unless he loses weight and others in their current lineup struggle.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/news/the-pa...-could-be-coming-to-an-end-040039765-mlb.html
     
  2. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    That story says nothing about any move being imminent. It also specifically says that finding a trade partner will be difficult and that the Red Sox don't want to eat the contract by cutting him.
     
  3. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Member SoSH Member

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    1,995
    People are going to keep proposing a trade for Shields, but I can't recall any actual credible rumors about that since last trade deadline. If anyone wanted to make a deal around those shitty contracts, it would have happened. It isn't going to happen anyway, but I'd rather have a dysfunctional bench piece than be stuck watching Shields get knocked around every five days for the next few years.

    Best guess: Sandoval is done here, but it will be a salary dump that recoups 3-7 million in AAV. Either that, or they will include a Brian Johnson caliber prospect that gets them more payroll room. Its hard to imagine being the GM of even a bottom tier rebuilding team and seeing a deal for Sandoval that makes sense.
     
  4. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    4,296
    Sandoval is 29 years of age. It didn't work out here, but he's only a year removed from being a pretty darned good player. I don't know why a team wouldn't be willing to take a chance on him if: (1) They need 3b help, and (2) they can get the Sox to eat 70% of his salary. The Sox might be willing to do that because, after all, it saves them 30% of the salary. It would mean a team would take a chance on Panda for not a lot of money. I'd think that in another market, with no big-contract pressure, and with perhaps a chip on his shoulder, Sandoval could become a pretty good major leaguer again.
     
  5. HangingW/ScottCooper

    HangingW/ScottCooper Member SoSH Member

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    1,924
    I remember having the conversation in the offseason about sending Sandoval to the minors a la Alan Craig. What are the rules that would prevent this (I know Sandoval would have to accept the assignment)? Also, what are the rules that apply to Craig that make it so his salary doesn't count against the luxury tax?
     
  6. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers SoSH Member

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    27,644
    If I remember correctly from the discussion at the time, Craig had options, but because of how many years he'd spent in the majors, he had pass through waivers to be sent down. The reason his salary doesn't count is he was removed from the 40 man roster. He's not protected from the Rule 5 draft, but any team taking him on would also take on his salary.
     
  7. SumnerH

    SumnerH Malt Liquor Picker Dope

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    25,589
    Craig had less than 5 years of services time (4.1ish according to b-ref), so the Sox were able to outright him to AAA without his consent--he still had to clear waivers, which he did. In doing so, he was removed from the 40-man roster, so his salary doesn't count toward the MLB roster/luxury tax.

    Sandoval has over 5 years of service time (just over 7 according to b-ref), so he can't be sent down without accepting the assignment; there's little chance he does that when he could walk away with the full contractual salary intact and sign with another ML team (for the minimum, with Boston still paying the remainder of the contractual salary).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_transactions
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4700
     
  8. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    1,273
    So hypothetically if Sandoval, Craig and Castillo are all drawing their salaries in AAA, could we claim to have a $300 million development machine? That'd look nice on the brochure.
     
  9. Rice4HOF

    Rice4HOF Member SoSH Member

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    1,708
    The .com has a great glossary series, one of which talks specifically about this: Glossary: MLB Service Time
    Keep the link to the whole series handily bookmarked
     
  10. EllisTheRimMan

    EllisTheRimMan Member SoSH Member

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    4,130
    Thanks for the all the data guys. But even after all that knowledge all I can muster is, "Oy Vey". The curse of the Benbino. Yeesh!
     
  11. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    9,257
    Who could the Red Sox conceivably trade for? I can think of a handful of guys who have comparably bad or worse contracts, and none of them are good fits:

    Elvis Andrus (8 years, $120 million remaining after trade kicker)
    Ryan Howard (1 year, $35 million remaining assuming buyout)
    Justin Verlander (4 years, $112 million remaining)
    Albert Pujols (6 years, $165 million remaining)
    Matt Kemp (4 years, $73 million remaining)
     
  12. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Would Philly even do a Howard for Sandoval swap? Because for Boston it would have to be more appetizing to waive Howard than Panda.
     
  13. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    9,257
    Nope; Philly has Maikel Franco at 3B, and 4/$32 is too much for Panda at 1B.
     
  14. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    On the bright side he might give them more production than Howard at first. ;)
     
  15. Buffalo Head

    Buffalo Head Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The local news in San Diego has reported the Padres' interest in Sandoval for Shields a few times, mostly right before the season started.
     
  16. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    I'm surprised that some of us are so willing to take on a bad/risky contract just to get rid of him, rather than just DFA'ing him. Bringing up Marrero as the utility guy makes way more sense to me.

    What does it matter if there is deadweight money if the team can afford it? Papi's 16mill is off the books next season, so if they have to pay for a starter, the money is there. Much of the rest of the core is really cheap and doesn't appear to need an upgrade at this point.
     
  17. Toe Nash

    Toe Nash Member SoSH Member

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    4,389
    If the team you trade with sees some value in Panda, you can take on a less-bad contract. If that contract doesn't work then sure you dump it, but you may as well explore the other deal first if it's at a position of need (starter).

    Taking the Shields example, he has 3/$63 left including this year. Panda has 4/$77.4 guaranteed. Shields also was a pretty good pitcher until last year and wasn't awful last year either. So getting that "bad" contract saves you some money and gives you a shot at a better player.

    If the Padres don't want to do it or are asking for too much in addition to Panda, then you could just DFA Panda. But it seems like a no-brainer to explore it.
     
  18. rotundlio

    rotundlio Member SoSH Member

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    323
    Shields would be an unequivocal coup. He had the 11th-highest swinging strike rate among qualified starters last season, ahead of guys like Greinke, Harvey, King Félix... and David Price. His K rate, attendantly, was an outlier career high. So too was his walk rate—but replace last year's 9.4% with his career norm of 6.1% and his xFIP / SIERA are that of a legitimate #1 starter. (Incidentally, he placed 30th in SIERA.) He is a lock for 200 innings.
     
  19. Alcohol&Overcalls

    Alcohol&Overcalls Member SoSH Member

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    1,672
    Why would we assume his walk rate will regress to his career mean, but his K rate won't?
     
  20. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    3,365
    Shields is fine in the example, because it does fill a need, but adding someone like Kemp would be a disaster.
     
  21. Toe Nash

    Toe Nash Member SoSH Member

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    So you're saying you're in favor of them making a good deal and not a bad deal. I think we agree.

    I'm actually not sure Kemp would be that bad if it were a straight 1-for-1 deal. They have basically the same remaining money and years and while Kemp is a shell of his former self, he has a shot to be better than our current LFer (as much as I like Holt). He had a 140 OPS+ in 2014 which is better than anyone but Papi hit last year and he could presumably pepper the Monster. I'd rather they give him a shot than simply cut Panda to replace him with a AAAAer.
     
  22. Smiling Joe Hesketh

    Smiling Joe Hesketh All Hail King Boron Dope

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    30,210
    And he gave up 33 home runs while pitching in the best pitcher's park in the league. Put him in Fenway and what do you think might happen?

    Granted, he'll probably contribute more to the cause than Sandoval will, but you're making a ton of assumptions about this guy's performance and I just don't see it. His K rate was at an alltime high because it was his first year in the NL where he got to face pitchers and crappy #8 hitters.

    He's also off to a HORRIFIC start this year.
     
  23. nothumb

    nothumb Member SoSH Member

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    7,035
    Yeah there is a pretty good chance that Shields would end up as a downgrade to the rotation once Ed is back, even with how bad our SP has been thus far. Kemp, on the other hand, might reasonably end up being better than any internal options in a 5th OF / PH / occasional DH type role. It's still a wildly inefficient use of resources for a marginal improvement on the fringes of the roster, but it probably isn't making the team actively worse, which Panda and Shields both are.
     
  24. SumnerH

    SumnerH Malt Liquor Picker Dope

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    25,589
    Fenway typically gives up fewer home runs than Petco--Fenway's a good hitter's park because it creates tons of doubles, but it's a below-average HR park.
     
  25. opes

    opes Doctor Tongue Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    4,065
    I cannot see SD trading kemp away for Sandoval. Kemp actually has some value, Pablo has none. For 20 million a year for hopefully obtaining at least 1 war? He doesnt save any runs in the outfield, but he does have a bat that could turn into a righty DH, and hit alot of doubles.
    Bottom line is Sandoval likely will never be a productive hitter anymore. So I cant really see any team taking a flyer on him. He was a terrible signing to begin with, and we are stuck with him.
     
  26. grantb

    grantb Couldn't get into a real school Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    2,019
    This is just not true anymore. Here are the annual HR rates for Petco Park per ESPN [and Fenway]

    2010 - .856 [.871]
    2011 - .862 [.880]
    2012 - .626 [1.088]
    3 year averages - .721 [.946]
    <<Fences moved in at Petco>>
    2013 - .936 [.845]
    2014 - .808 [.720]
    2015 - 1.085 (10th highest in MLB) [.971]
    3 year averages - .943 [.845]

    So you can keep saying how Petco suppressed home runs Shields allowed in 2015 and ignoring the facts, or you can acknowledge that over the last three years since they've moved the fences in at Petco, it has been about 10% more home run friendly than Fenway.

    I'm not saying Shields would be a fit in Fenway or the Red Sox, but to keep spouting off Petco being the most pitcher friendly HR park in the majors is just false, and it hasn't been true since 2008 (2009 for total runs).
     
  27. finnVT

    finnVT Member SoSH Member

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    1,768
    I think the problem with the SD deals is that both teams want to get out from under bad money, but of course only one team can actually reduce payroll commitments in the process. I'd be curious how a Pablo+Castillo for Shields+Kemp deal would fly. SD saves about 15m over the life of the deal, and get two guys who are younger, and have at least some theoretical upside (in Castillo's case, as a CF, where he doesn't have much of a shot in Boston). It obviously doesn't save Boston any money, but presumably you get two guys whose floors are a bit higher and therefore have a slightly higher probability of providing some value (and whose relationships haven't soured yet).
     
  28. mauidano

    mauidano Mai Tais for everyone! SoSH Member

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    26,833
  29. rotundlio

    rotundlio Member SoSH Member

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    323
    What he did was abandon the strike zone a bit (pitch mix remaining static), but attendantly his stuff was much more swing-and-miss-worthy across the board, inside and out. According to these numbers. But walks per nine is the one thing pitchers generally improve upon with age, and FanGraphs' "Zone%" doesn't correlate very strongly with walks (although first pitch strike percentage does). He'll get the innings to possibly follow that career trajectory. It'd take a comet to keep him off the mound.

    So I think I want Price and Shields on the Red Sox. But I believe Sandoval has screwed even that up.
     
    #29 rotundlio, Apr 16, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2016
  30. FanSinceBoggs

    FanSinceBoggs seantwo SoSH Member

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    937
    Releasing or trading Sandoval at this point makes no sense. Any trade would require the Red Sox to pick up almost the entire contract anyway and so they might as well hold on to him and hope they can get some value out of him. Sandoval has an opportunity to win a starting job in 2017:
    (1) Assuming he can handle the position defensively, it makes sense to keep Shaw at 3b.
    (2) Hanley replaces Ortiz at DH.
    (3) If Sandoval comes into spring training in shape next year, he probably wins the starting job at 1b. Hopefully, losing his starting job to Shaw will be a turning point for Sandoval and he will begin to take his conditioning seriously. If not, the Red Sox could always turn to Sam Travis at 1b. Thus, they have a solid plan B behind Sandoval.

    If they jettison Sandoval now, they would be doing so at his lowest value and they wouldn't get anything out of it. It makes more sense to hold on to him and hope he rebuilds some of his value.
     
  31. NJ_Sox_Fan

    NJ_Sox_Fan Member SoSH Member

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    4,377
    He just threw 7 innings last night, giving up 2 runs. His era on the young season is 4.05. I wouldn't call that horrific. Even if you do consider that horrific, it's better than all our starters so far.
     
  32. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    10,564
    As trade targets go, I keep thinking the Sox should lock-on to Shin-Soo Choo's bad contract.

    It would take a three-way trade to involve Panda, since Texas is probably the MLB team least needy for a hurt, fat 3B, now with Beltre extended. But their catcher's hurt and Swihart could end up there, instead. And while the Rangers do have a glut of range-limited LHH LF, with Hamilton on the way back, we could even spot them one who's "dynamic" instead.

    My dream* scenario for a May trade:

    BOS: gets Choo, Ross
    SDP: gets Sandoval, Owens
    TEX: gets Castillo, Swihart

    * This is not really my dream scenario, but whatever. I'm sure the Sox would prefer to have Panda get some minor arthroscopic surgery of his glove-hand shoulder, and tell him to take the year and lose 50+ lbs before next spring rather than trade him at the nadir of his professional value. I would probably prefer that too, as long as he's off the team and out of sight in 2016, if only because I'd hope by not trying to get out of a bad contract, Swihart and Owens should be able to return a better pitcher than Tyson Ross.
     
  33. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    11,488
    Didn't I take better package than Swihart and Owens to get Kimbrel? Wouldn't it take more to get a starter?
     
  34. saintnick912

    saintnick912 GINO! Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    4,226
    The LF fence at Petco was moved in for the 2015 season. I was there on a tour while they were doing the work. Looks like several feet based on the seats behind it:

    [​IMG]
     
  35. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    47,936
    If Hanley keeps playing well at first base through this year, why would he want to give up the position next year/why would the Sox want to put a guy who is 3 - 4 inches shorter, can't jump, and has already gotten hurt at 1B in a very short stint with the Giants stretching for a ball at 1B. I believe Pablo said after that he never wanted to play 1B again. This was the play.

    [​IMG]

    Edit, actually as to who wanted him to play at first or not, the only article I could find was about Giants GM at the time Brian Sabean saying he was uncomfortable with the idea of Pablo Sandoval playing first base again. So am I, but nobody is going to ask me.
     
    #35 Al Zarilla, Apr 16, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2016
  36. Corleone

    Corleone Sleeps with the fishes

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    67


    Yes, 33 bombs is alarming. If you break it down 23 HR to LH Hitters. How much does this have to do with pitch planning vs LH Hitters and how good is your Catcher calling such pitches or whomever might be calling the pitches?

    I would move Sandoval and cash for Shields in a heartbeat. Shields is not an Ace but he is a horse who eats innings. With this Staff minus Price and the wisdom of Farrell the Pen will be burnt by July 1st.

    All moot at the moment since PS is on his way to Bama...
     
  37. PaulinMyrBch

    PaulinMyrBch Don't touch his dog food Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    8,194
  38. crystalline

    crystalline Member SoSH Member

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    5,678
    That is an enjoyable comparison of two sets of numbers obtained from nearly non-overlapping sets of hitters and pitchers. But I am not sure such a comparison is very useful for predictions.
    One red flag in those numbers is the year to year variation. Is the nearly 50% peak to peak variation in Fenway's rate noise, or is it real?

    Petco may well be a weaker pitcher's park than it used to be, but those numbers are not convincing.
     
  39. DennyDoyle'sBoil

    DennyDoyle'sBoil Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill SoSH Member

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    25,115
    If Pablo goes on DL longer or were to be DFA, is the current roster the one we go with? Rutledge stays up? That makes Holt Shaw's backup and would move Young into full time duty if Shaw needs a day off.
     
  40. geoduck no quahog

    geoduck no quahog Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    10,373
    I'd imagine Pablo to DL for remainder of season means Castillo back up when his exile permits.

    That makes Holt your b/u 3B and LF. Shaw your b/u 1B (LF?). Young your platooned LF. Two middle infielders on the bench.

    That's a lot of middle infielders and left fielders if you throw Holt into that mix at 2nd base.

    My imagination thinks what I just imagined is odd. One thing we do know is that Castillo is the onnly guy right now that can conceivably punch-in at CF and RF if either JBJ or Betts goes down with an injury.

    In the good news department, Sandoval being the one who goes down with an injury-ending season is probably the least impactful injury that could happen. Maybe he comes back next year a new man.
     
  41. Maximus

    Maximus Member SoSH Member

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    3,992
    Swihart, Owens + for Sonny Gray after the draft. Moncada, Espinoza, Benentendi & Devers are untouchable. Hanley DH's next year and Panda plays 1st if he's still here.
     
  42. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    Swihart > Margot and Owens > Guerra. No? Certainly the first part is true.
     
  43. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers SoSH Member

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    27,644
    There is no world in which Benintendi or Devers are more untouchable than Swihart. Holy crap. There aren't even many where Espinoza is. Moncada you can make an argument for but that is heavily tied up in how much money they have sunk into him.
     
  44. geoduck no quahog

    geoduck no quahog Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    10,373
    Absolutely.

    The Vazquez discussion must always include what the fuck happens with one of the best prospects in all of baseball: Swihart.

    Vazquez and Swihart may together represent the pinnacle of catching talent in the league, given enough time. Swihart for sure.

    The highest ranked catcher in BP this year is Willson Contreras, a converted 3B, at #57.

    Talk about an embarrassment of riches...
     
  45. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    57,810
    It's this generation's version of Lahoud or BillyC, Tony Horton or Joe Foy or Brian Rose or Juan Pena
     
  46. HangingW/ScottCooper

    HangingW/ScottCooper Member SoSH Member

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    Thanks to everyone explaining the Craig vs Sandoval / 40 man roster/service time rule.

    At this point I think the only way you move Sandoval is eat salary, include a decent cost controlled player and absorb another bad contract. He has negative value at this point.
     
  47. FanSinceBoggs

    FanSinceBoggs seantwo SoSH Member

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    937
    To keep Hanley as healthy as possible. The thunder in Hanley's bat is important to preserve in the lineup and he has had injury issues over the last several seasons. He is also 2-3 years older than Sandoval. I think Hanley to DH and Sandoval to 1b is more logical than the reverse.

    If Sandoval gets in shape, he will be fine at 1b, might even excel at the position. He was an excellent defensive 3b a few years ago, but he needs to get in shape. I wouldn't move Shaw off 3b and so it is either 1b or DH for Sandoval. If Sandoval doesn't get in shape, then Hanley at DH and Sam Travis at 1b in 2017.
     
  48. YTF

    YTF Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    9,221
    If Sandoval got in shape, he may have been fine at 3B, might have even excelled at the position. Given the effort he's put into it thus far and his early success at the position, it would surprise me if moving Hanley from 1b to DH for a guy who ate himself out of his natural position doesn't go down so well. It's still early days, but if it works why would the Sox fuck with that to appease someone who either can not or will not do what it takes to earn and keep his spot on the roster?
     
  49. grantb

    grantb Couldn't get into a real school Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    2,019
    I agree, but more because of Hanley rather than Pablo. His defense is proving to be more than capable and it seems his focus is on point. You can tell the difference in his demeanor. In the same way I think it's valuable how Koji fires up the whole bench after his holds, I think Hanley's enthusiasm when he makes plays at first is contagious. As long as that stays the case throughout the rest of the year, I'd plan on Hanley staying at first for the next.
     
  50. The Gray Eagle

    The Gray Eagle Member SoSH Member

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    12,166
    It's now been about 24 hours since this thread was started, and there has been no release or trade, so it obviously isn't "imminent." Can we get the thread title changed? Sandoval is on the DL with a possible rotator cuff injury and isn't going to be traded or released anytime soon. No one is going to take that contract in any trade and we aren't going to release him since he isn't taking up a roster spot anymore.

    So this is basically the same thread as the other Pablo is fat one, only with a misleading thread title.
     
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