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Offseason Thread - Betty when you call me, you can call me Al

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by NomarsFool, May 11, 2019.

  1. NomarsFool

    NomarsFool Member SoSH Member

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    Al has a player option for $30.12 million that he has until June 18th to exercise, according to the Globe on 5/13.

    Horford was truly one of the Celtics best players this year, when he was able to play. The Celtics were certainly cautious with him throughout the season to keep him from getting more seriously injured and to keep him fresh for the playoffs, where he played a huge role for us. There's certainly no one on the FA market (that I've heard so far) that would come close to matching him.

    The media reports are saying that he is open to signing a longer, lower value per year contract. I think I saw something in the $17-19 range for 5 years. Here's the question, though, how would we feel about that contract in years 4 and 5? Even year 3? He's 33 years old. I'm not sure the more cap friendly number for next year makes much difference. Everything helps, of course, but I don't think it is going to mean they can bring in a premier free agent.

    Edited for recent article on option date.
     
    #1 NomarsFool, May 11, 2019
    Last edited: May 12, 2019
  2. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The opt-in date is June 18, according to most reports. The date is important because it is before the NBA draft (June 20).
     
  3. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    A 5/90 deal for Al is spectacular value, even if the last two years he'll be coming off the bench, because you'll still be getting two to three years of top 30 performance for way below max value.
     
  4. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I think you worry about years 4 and 5 in years 4 and 5. Saving $11-13mm in cap room now allows the Celtics, potentially, to add a significant piece in year 1.

    Assuming Baynes opts in, Kyrie opts out, Horford restructures to $18mm AAV, Ojeleye's contract becomes guaranteed, Theis is retained at $2mm and the Celtics keep two draft picks @ $6mm combined and all cap holds are renounced:

    C: Horford ($18.0mm)/Baynes ($5.5mm)/Williams ($1.9mm)
    F: Hayward ($30.7mm)/Tatum ($7.8mm)/Theis ($2.0mm)/Ojeleye ($1.6mm)/Yabusele ($3.1mm)
    G: Smart ($12.6mm)/Brown ($6.5mm)
    2 picks ($6.0mm combined)

    $95.7mm total, or $13.3mm below the cap. Without Horford's restructure, BOS is right at the cap. Any room the Celtics have in the offseason will be solely due to Horford's extension.

    Also, the cap is scheduled to rise $7mm in 2020-21 so it is possible that future cap rises will offset Horford's deal in later years.
     
  5. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    I'd be really surprised if Horford got 5 years. That's too long for his age. If he opts out and re-signs here, I'd guess it's something like 3/65, or maybe 4/80 with the 4th year not fully guaranteed.
     
  6. NomarsFool

    NomarsFool Member SoSH Member

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    What does that buy you? It's not a rhetorical question. When people talk about Terry Rozier getting $20 million, I'm scared to think what you get with $11-$13 million.
     
  7. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I doubt he gets 5, but the same calculation applies to 4/75. And in the last year he'll be an expiring that's useful for salary matching, even if his performance is shot by then.
     
  8. bigq

    bigq Member SoSH Member

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    Horford is worth > $20M for three or more seasons. Rozier is worth a lot less and any team that paid him $20M would be overpaying by quite a bit.
     
  9. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    That would be a steal of a deal for the Celtics and a great final contract for Horford which gets him paid significant dollars at ages 36 & 37. You get great value in the first 2 to 3 years and then his contract becomes a trade asset. If we are looking to move forward with Davis and Kyrie the immediate window is those next 2-3 years anyway.

    Either way he’s surely opting out to sign a longer deal somewhere (very likely here) as he’d be one major injury away from a one-year veteran min deal the following summer which is an unnecessary risk.
     
  10. NomarsFool

    NomarsFool Member SoSH Member

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    I'd be very comfortable with 4 years. 5 years I'd be a bit nervous. I love Horford, but at times this season he seemed like he was literally on his last legs.

    Once he opts out, which seems almost completely certain. He becomes an unrestricted free agent, I assume. I guess the question for him would be, what kind of deal could he get at age 34 after next season? Compare:

    Option A: $30 million now, plus likelihood of getting at least a 3 year deal at $20 million per year next summer (including risk of injury next season)

    Option B: $80 million over next four years now

    Do the Celtics have any advantage in re-signing him than other teams because he's on the roster now?
     
  11. Bleedred

    Bleedred Member SoSH Member

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    Reading the Globe this weekend, they made some comment that Al could opt in and make $30MM this year, or, he may choose to opt out and while he wouldn't make $30MM/year, he might go for the "security" of a longer term deal with lesser annual pay out. I have to laugh at the notion of "security," as if the amount of money he has made to date ($125MM plus?) and another $30MM next year wouldn't provide ample security for his golden years.
     
  12. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    While it's not possible to read Horford's mind, and with the caveat that every athlete is different:

    Horford's agent will lay out 3 scenarios:

    a.) Horford opts in for $30M, has a good season, and next offseason nets a 3 year deal with a total value of ~$80M. Total future earnings: $110M.

    b.) Horford does not exercise option, and nets a 4 year deal from Boston of around $100M.

    c.) Horford opts in for $30M, has an uneven season due to some nagging injuries that bother him throughout the season. Teams, rightly concerned that Horford is in decline, shy away from offering him first tier free agent dollars. He settles for a 2 year deal (1 plus 1 w/ player option) of around $20M total ($10M AAV) in an attempt to make good. Nothing changes, and he opts in for the 2nd year, and takes MLE money for that final year (if that). Total earnings: $~60M.

    Yes, he's made a ton of money already. But a $40M loss is a big deal for just about anyone, and it is not completely insurable either.
     
  13. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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    1,065
    Horford has to know that he could be used as salary ballast in a potential AD trade if he opts in. For him there is probably additional incentive beyond the long-term money to opt out and pick his final basketball destination. He's going to get a three year deal in the $65-$70MM range on the free agent market, be it Boston or somewhere else.
     
  14. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Read “security” as an investment fund hedging, and not as a retiree trying to make it to 65, and it makes sense.
     
  15. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    For you old timers....I’ll eat a log of Rocco’s shit if Horford chooses this option and opts in.

    He can get a 4-5 year deal around $100-120 or so......I’m virtually certain he can get guaranteed from multiple teams. What is the upside of waiting until he enters his age 34 season? At best he gets similar.....at worst he’s injured and gets nothing. There is no rational reason for him and/or his agent to opt-in. This is precisely why the opt-out was negotiated into his contract.
     
  16. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    Just make sure you get Klay's permission. :)
     
  17. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I think your numbers are a bit high given his age, but not worth quibbling. He looks set to age well if his minutes are managed tightly ala late-career Duncan.
     
  18. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Even if my numbers are high this summer on a longer term deal.....which I don’t feel they are with the cap/tax increasing during the length of his contract as well as it being a trsdeable asset in the final two years....he’d still be facing those same ranges the following summer except a year older (so likely a lesser deal even if healthy).
     
  19. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Wrong Rocco. This one is rabid but apparently ran away. And we never chipped him.
     
  20. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    So is it a given that we are looking at a NYK big three of Durant-Kyrie-Davis?
     
  21. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    That's a great point. You really only need him for four of the five years, and after that he becomes a valuable trade chip to balance the books. That's at worst. At best, he's still a solid bench guy well worth the money.
     
  22. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Knicks interested in Rozier and Morris?

     
  23. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    There definitely could be opportunities for Danny to S&T Terry and Morris in some of the fallback scenarios, especially if an aspiring superteam is capped out after signing its stars.
     
  24. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    If we S&T Rozier, wouldn't that mean we likely kept Kyrie?

    Either way, if Rozier goes to NY, I look forward to him coming back to Boston and taking 43 shots.
     
  25. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Terry is definitely making up for lost time:



    Of course:

     
  26. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    I'm sure a fair amount of that for Rozier was bringing the ball up the court, which counts for these stats but doesn't really feel like you have the ball because you can't do anything offensively with it.
     
  27. teddykgb

    teddykgb Member SoSH Member

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    While I dont think you’re wrong, Terry sure did his best to prove you wrong as often as possible this year. I won’t be sad to see fewer 0 pass 3s
     
  28. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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  29. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    It doesn't count for USAGE. If someone just dribbled up the floor, passed it to someone else, then stood in the corner, his USAGE would be low. USAGE uses things like FGA and FTA to come to a percentage. If he's passing ball off and standing still, then his numbers there would be low.

    And, in the end, Rozier averaged more FGA/36 than Hayward did.

    He's whining.
     
  30. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, Terry. There is no way the Celtics should even think about having him on the team next year, no matter what Kyrie does
     
  31. Light-Tower-Power

    Light-Tower-Power Member SoSH Member

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    I never thought this team under Brad and Danny would ever become even the slightest bit dysfunctional. Guess it just goes to show that for a lot of guys $$$ trumps everything and no coach can change it.
     
  32. TripleOT

    TripleOT Member SoSH Member

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    Ainge loves Rozier. If Kyrie walks without a S and T bringing a PG back, the Celtics are keeping Rozier. Assuming AL restructures and is making $20 million next year, and assuming all the other FAs leave, including Baynes, they'd have around $13m to sign a FA PG. Here's what's out there for FA point guards at that amount or less:

    Rubio
    Rose
    Elfred Payton
    Beverely
    Darren Collison
    Rondo
    IT
    Ish Smith
    TJ McConnell
    Lin
    Cory Joseph
     
  33. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    If Ainge loves Rozier he is a dinosaur GM.

    Rozier is firmly entrenched in the bottom half of that list.
     
  34. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Right. I was just commenting on these numbers:

    Time of possession per game
    Terry Rozier: 3.7 minutes
    Gordon Hayward 2 minutes

    Touches per game
    Rozier: 51.9
    Hayward: 45.5

    Rozier wasn't taking 3.7 minutes' worth of shots per game. That's 3.7 minutes where he has possession of the ball. That has to include bringing the ball up the court, because the clock is ticking and he has possession.
     
  35. TripleOT

    TripleOT Member SoSH Member

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    Rozier frustrates the hell out of me, but his starter splits are pretty good, with his 40% from three and 3.9:1 assist to turnover the best of his numbers. There's going to be one GM out there who figures he can develop into a solid starter with the right opportunity.

    Rozier and his camp are out there spinning his sub-par 2019 season as a result of a dysfunctional team and a lack of opportunity. Of course, the hundreds of times he chose not to fight through a pick, and the scores of times he hoisted up garbage shots, and not from team either of those factors. After what I've seen from Rozier this season, I have no problem with the Celtics walking away from him, although I don't think Ainge will do that. If Kyrie is leaving, I'd rather develop a future PG with the 9th or 14th pick.
     
  36. CoffeeNerdness

    CoffeeNerdness Member SoSH Member

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    He's the worst dribbler of the basketball I've ever watched over an extended period of time. Sayonara.
     
  37. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    They are, and last season's postseason aside, weren't those starts somewhat strategically placed against weaker teams?

    EDIT: I guess I can look it up.

    He started against: Utah, NO, Min, Dal, Nets x 3, Cha, Cle x 3, Phi, Sac, Was
     
  38. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    So he's a bad dribbler, has the ball in his hands alot, and has a low turnover rate?
     
  39. CoffeeNerdness

    CoffeeNerdness Member SoSH Member

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  40. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Sure, but the money matters in his case. You can burn through the salary of a #16 draft pick pretty quickly.
     
  41. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    His “Usage” numbers really don’t reflect the way he was used however. Rozier isn’t wrong in stating that the offense was often designed to run through Kyrie and Hayward when he was on the floor. He did get his shots up because he felt the need to put up numbers in a contract year......the shots just didn’t always come within the offense and many weren’t good looks for him.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if these comments aren’t strategic. If he is aware that Kyrie is leaving and he’s really bitter at Ainge/Brad for how he was used this year/not traded by the deadline then he could be intentionally burning a bridge so the Celtics don’t match his offer sheet as a RFA.
     
  42. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Yes. Because if you design it to run through Terry Rozier when Irving and Hayward are on the floor you don't remain an NBA coach all that long.
     
  43. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Who do you have ahead of Rozier on that list? Certainly not Lin, McConnell, or Isaiah who would have to be dead last in whichever order you desire.
     
  44. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I’m not disagreeing with that. If you are Rozier are you happy with this type of usage in a contract year rather than being traded?
     
  45. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Of course not. I just disagree with how he's handling it.
     
  46. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    This is why I feel it could be his agents strategy to avoid the Celtics matching. Something seems weird that he’d continue going on like this without a purpose.
     
  47. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think Ainge/Zarren would bring in TJ McConnell but I am willing to bet that he would quickly become a fan, if not board favorite in Boston for a lot of obvious reasons. Meanwhile, he is a marginal NBA talent at best and the Celtics would be better off retaining Wanamaker.
     
  48. teddykgb

    teddykgb Member SoSH Member

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    Wouldn’t Rubio be kind of interesting in a Kyrie less world where the team goes back to using lots of cutting and movement? Maybe his shot just isn’t good enough if the offense runs a lot through Horford at the high post
     
  49. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Then he needs new agents because there’s a zero percent chance that Boston lets him walk, this isn’t analogous to the KO situation, they need Rozier either as a trade chip or an actual player if/when Irving leaves.
     
  50. Lazy vs Crazy

    Lazy vs Crazy Member SoSH Member

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    I think Utah will beat any offer we can make for Rubio in any case.
     

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