This is so disappointing.
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1743412612551827517?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1743412612551827517?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
They’ve really found their lane.
As I said earlier in the thread I don't have an opinion on what road ownership is taking because I'm not sure we have enough data to figure that out. Like McAdam says it could be because they don't feel like they are there yet or if this is a more permanent thing. My question would be how many more years do we give them to show whether it's door 1 or door 2?
This should be pinned to the top of this thread.Cotillo can only write on what the Red Sox have done and what they’re doing in the next day or so. He can’t write about what they might do and he can’t wait around until the beginning of Spring Training to write up a comprehensive review of the off season.
His job is to write about the moves that the Sox have made (which isn’t many) and if they haven’t what the reasons are why they’ve been quiet—especially after one of the owners came out and said they were going “full throttle”.
If the Red Sox aren’t going to comment (which is their prerogative) he has to find someone who will. He can’t go to his bosses and say, “The Sox aren’t doing shit and aren’t saying shit, I’ll get ‘em tomorrow.” He’ll lose his job if he does that.
So he either has to talk to people outside of the organization or anonymous sources inside. Furthermore his job (like Peter Abe’s or any other “media enemy”) isn’t to do PR for the Sox. He has to dig up news and if he can’t get it from source , he has to find it.
it’s “not for clicks” or to “make a name”, it’s literally his job. The Sox are quiet, he’s trying to figure out why and I’m sorry it’s not what you want to hear but that’s not his fault. This is journalism 101.
Abraham, Cotillo, McAdam and the rest of the Sox beat writers are good at what they do. Saying that they’re muckrakers or don’t know what they’re talking about because they’re not writing sunshine everyday isn’t their problem.
Agreed. McAdam’s comment on the CBT threshold is really strange. As a fan I think it’s fair to criticize ownership for where the payroll has gone, but we don’t need to make things up.Is it really that hard to envision them getting to, say, $225-230M, leaving a little bit of a cushion for the summer, if needed?
If they sign Teoscar and a guy like Imanaga, you’re basically there without cutting payroll. There are still plenty of guys worth spending money on.
I remain in a “wait and see” mode with this ownership group. If they start the season at like $200M and forego guys who can help this team, then I think this is a legitimate gripe. But we’re not there yet. I don’t begrudge those who are skeptical though. We need to see more.
Why do they need to leave room this year? I get the argument that it was valuable to leave the cushion last year for a mid season acquisition...but wasn't the point of last season to reset the CBT to allow spending this off-season and the next two? Maybe I'm confused about the rules on this.Is it really that hard to envision them getting to, say, $225-230M, leaving a little bit of a cushion for the summer, if needed?
If they sign Teoscar and a guy like Imanaga, you’re basically there without cutting payroll. There are still plenty of guys worth spending money on.
I remain in a “wait and see” mode with this ownership group. If they start the season at like $200M and forego guys who can help this team, then I think this is a legitimate gripe. But we’re not there yet. I don’t begrudge those who are skeptical though. We need to see more.
They way they have operated in the past, as most big market clubs do, is spend over the tax for two years, and then reset before the 3rd year so you don't lose out on your big revenue sharing rebate check.Why do they need to leave room this year? I get the argument that it was valuable to leave the cushion last year for a mid season acquisition...but wasn't the point of last season to reset the CBT to allow spending this off-season and the next two? Maybe I'm confused about the rules on this.
They definitely don’t have to stay below after resetting last year and having a lot of money coming off the books next year and I’m certainly not advocating for it.Why do they need to leave room this year? I get the argument that it was valuable to leave the cushion last year for a mid season acquisition...but wasn't the point of last season to reset the CBT to allow spending this off-season and the next two? Maybe I'm confused about the rules on this.
They don't ever need to leave room. They generate at least $500 million in revenue every season, and the valuation of the Red Sox has risen by $4 billion since John Henry bought the team. The most they've ever paid as a penalty for going over the luxury tax is $11 million. The draft pick and international signing bonus penalties are negligible in the sport where amateur talent evaluation is more uncertain than any other. The fact that baseball owners have tricked fans into earnestly arguing that spending money on the MLB team is somehow a competitive disadvantage is the scam of the century.Why do they need to leave room this year? I get the argument that it was valuable to leave the cushion last year for a mid season acquisition...but wasn't the point of last season to reset the CBT to allow spending this off-season and the next two? Maybe I'm confused about the rules on this.
Same for me, but my data point will be opening day. There is no reason to worry about the CBT threshhold this season after resetting, and I continue to hope this talk about shedding salary is either strategic leaks ("we love this guy and don't want to trade him but... the budget") or the media echo chamber devolving into reposts of fan angst.They definitely don’t have to stay below after resetting last year and having a lot of money coming off the books next year and I’m certainly not advocating for it.
This is why I want to see where they finish up this year because I think it’ll be a pretty valuable data point to how they plan on operating.
I mean, it's not an unreasonable request to present a couple of examples of that kind of thing as big market behavior if you're putting it forth as such. I'm trying to think of a big market team that will consistently just spend and spend on redundant talent and sort it all out later, and I'm not coming up with anything.Show my work? Yeah let me just peruse 50 years of baseball transactions and I’ll get back to you.
I love this post. The only thing I'd disagree with a little is that "clicks" and "making a name" aren't part of it. These guys need readers (clicks) and name recognition to not only connect with readers in order to be effective in their jobs, but also to advance in a field where it has become very difficult to do so. I definitely agree that those who say those things with contempt are completely missing the point. As you said, it's literally their livelihood.Cotillo can only write on what the Red Sox have done and what they’re doing in the next day or so. He can’t write about what they might do and he can’t wait around until the beginning of Spring Training to write up a comprehensive review of the off season.
His job is to write about the moves that the Sox have made (which isn’t many) and if they haven’t what the reasons are why they’ve been quiet—especially after one of the owners came out and said they were going “full throttle”.
If the Red Sox aren’t going to comment (which is their prerogative) he has to find someone who will. He can’t go to his bosses and say, “The Sox aren’t doing shit and aren’t saying shit, I’ll get ‘em tomorrow.” He’ll lose his job if he does that.
So he either has to talk to people outside of the organization or anonymous sources inside. Furthermore his job (like Peter Abe’s or any other “media enemy”) isn’t to do PR for the Sox. He has to dig up news and if he can’t get it from source , he has to find it.
it’s “not for clicks” or to “make a name”, it’s literally his job. The Sox are quiet, he’s trying to figure out why and I’m sorry it’s not what you want to hear but that’s not his fault. This is journalism 101.
Abraham, Cotillo, McAdam and the rest of the Sox beat writers are good at what they do. Saying that they’re muckrakers or don’t know what they’re talking about because they’re not writing sunshine everyday isn’t their problem.
And the Red Sox are the only team in MLB in the top 5 of both those lists… Point of interest and sometimes contention for me.Last year average MLB revenue was 344 million, with average operating income of 18 million
The Red Sox were 513 million revenue (3rd behind Yankees, Dodgers), and had 72 million operating income (3rd behind Mariners, Giants)
Yup…this jibes with all of the other reports about the team. The smoke surrounding the team is not good right now.View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1743446057172758579?s=46
Here comes Speier - backing up everything that’s been said by other beats to this point.
Too much smoke involved here. Pretty scary stuff really.
Yuck. Besides largely confirming the Athletic:View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1743446057172758579?s=46
Here comes Speier - backing up everything that’s been said by other beats to this point.
Too much smoke involved here. Pretty scary stuff really.
Yes, telling the truth is the right lane to be in.They’ve really found their lane.
How doesn’t it “pass the smell test”? Look at their actions and not their words.The one reason this “cutting payroll” stuff does not pass the smell test for me is that, the sox usually will try and get in front of news like this “see the bridge year during the theo days”
they (FO+Kennedy etc) know they are going to be asked about this ad nauseam and wont be able to just ignore it.
As to only wanting to offer Hernandez two years, obviously no one else had offered three either. In fact, Speier notes thatMajor league sources confirmed the Sox have indeed been willing to listen on Yoshida while also entertaining offers on closer Kenley Jansen (who has one year and $16 million left on his deal). Moves to part with either player wouldn’t occur in a vacuum or as an exercise of cutting payroll for its own sake, but would instead be used to free money for other additions.
In other words, for right now at least, offering more than two years for him doesn’t appear to be necessary.Thus far this offseason, there have been very few deals of more than two years for position players: Shohei Ohtani’s landmark deal, a six-year deal for Korean star Jung Hoo Lee, and three-year deals for Jeimer Candelario and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Guys, this is good news.Only willing to go 2 years on Teoscar.
My only concern with your post is the word "reallocate". Why do they need to do that this year? Any moves should be driven by winning - not payroll - but otherwise I agree that it's worth waiting to see how that plays out.Am i reading the same article as everyone else? It does say the Sox appear to be focused on trading for a starter rather than signing one of the free agents. That’s been discussed as a possibility from the moment Giolito signed.
Speier goes on to write
As to only wanting to offer Hernandez two years, obviously no one else had offered three either. In fact, Speier notes that
In other words, for right now at least, offering more than two years for him doesn’t appear to be necessary.
The entirety of that piece appears to be that it’s still too early to know what the Sox are going to do. They aren’t interested in the contracts that will be required to sign Snell and Montgomery, they remain interested in trading for a starter, they are not looking to cut payroll but are looking to reallocate it, they are offering Hernandez two years, which appears to be his market right now, and they’re willing to deal Masa.
I honestly don’t understand why every article and tweet leads to this same freakout. If we get to Opening Day and the team isn’t a legitimate playoff contender, let’s get angry. But right now we just don’t have any idea what they’re going to do.
If the sox are going to be operating in a vastly different manner than they have during their entire time owning the sox, they would usually get in front of it.How doesn’t it “pass the smell test”? Look at their actions and not their words.
I agree, I don’t have a good answer for that right now, and have said previously that if the Sox aren’t a top three or four payroll team in two years I will be very disappointed. For now, like you said, I just want to see what the rest of the offseason brings.My only concern with your post is the word "reallocate". Why do they need to do that this year? Any moves should be driven by winning - not payroll - but otherwise I agree that it's worth waiting to see how that plays out.
The problem is, they still lack top-end talent to be a winning team. I sure hope the idea is to bridge the gap to our youngsters, versus a general philosophy of not spending close to the CBT.I get the angst but I also don’t think it’s unreasonable to demand a front office that can put together a winning team for $200-$220 million or whatever the number is.
If they’ve been spending inefficiently. it makes sense to try to spend more efficiently.
All that said, ownership needs to be careful. They canned the scapegoat and the narrative is clearly retargeting.
are people freaking out? All of these posts are saying “this doesn’t sound good” or yuck. People are freaking out way more about others assumed freak outs than the actual happeningsAm i reading the same article as everyone else? It does say the Sox appear to be focused on trading for a starter rather than signing one of the free agents. That’s been discussed as a possibility from the moment Giolito signed.
Speier goes on to write
As to only wanting to offer Hernandez two years, obviously no one else had offered three either. In fact, Speier notes that
In other words, for right now at least, offering more than two years for him doesn’t appear to be necessary.
The entirety of that piece appears to be that it’s still too early to know what the Sox are going to do. They aren’t interested in the contracts that will be required to sign Snell and Montgomery, they remain interested in trading for a starter, they are not looking to cut payroll but are looking to reallocate it, they are offering Hernandez two years, which appears to be his market right now, and they’re willing to deal Masa.
I honestly don’t understand why every article and tweet leads to this same freakout. If we get to Opening Day and the team isn’t a legitimate playoff contender, let’s get angry. But right now we just don’t have any idea what they’re going to do.
I assume this includes minor leagues? That counts towards the CBT too.Since some folks were speculating that the breathing room below the CBT last year may have been for potential trade deadline moves, here’s everyone’s favorite reporter throwing cold water on that:
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1743451845396218260?s=46
Maybe. Are they so off a 2013-esque roster if a few things break right alongside 2-3 more impact moves?The problem is, they still lack top-end talent to be a winning team. I sure hope the idea is to bridge the gap to our youngsters, versus a general philosophy of not spending close to the CBT.
I don't subscribe to the Globe - is this confirming the Althetic report with additional sources of is it relying on that report?Yuck. Besides largely confirming the Athletic:
- Not expected to land Snell / Montgomery.
- They were pursuing Imanaga "aggressively" early in the offseason, but "now described as “lurking” in Imanaga’s free agency rather than as one of the most involved teams."
- Only willing to go 2 years on Teoscar.
Speier cited "major league sources" confirming the report that the Sox were listening on Yoshida (he also added in Jansen) and that the purpose would be to free money for other acquisitions.I don't subscribe to the Globe - is this confirming the Althetic report with additional sources of is it relying on that report?
Clearly a big market team would give Cotillio something to write about.My annoyance with the "big market team" rhetoric is its reductiveness. First, "big market team" is not clearly defined and therefore highly subjective. Is it a team that goes over the luxury tax every year? Every other year? By a certain amount? More than the Mets? Or Dodgers? How much do the Red Sox have to spend to justifiably represent their status as a "big market team"? Is it more a feeling? A splashy move? Do we need to have a poll? Secondly, and perhaps most tiresomely, is the fact that we still have many weeks to complete transactions. Judging the offseason at any point before the offseason is over, without the appropriate caveats, is either lazy, sensationalistic, or both.
Ah. The gentleman is only situationally beholden to the truth and has an economic incentive to color facts in the pursuit of entertainment.I mean you realize that when he’s hosting a podcast he’s a podcast host trying to entertain listeners not acting as a reporter right? Like he can wear two hats. I’m not even saying he’s right or wrong I’m just pushing back against the notion that if a reporter is saying something negative against the Sox they are lying.
Over the last 5 years several teams have significantly increased spending. They include the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, Phillies, and Padres. Our payroll has declined. When that many teams pass you in payroll it becomes an ownership problem. Revenue is not down.I get the angst but I also don’t think it’s unreasonable to demand a front office that can put together a winning team for $200-$220 million or whatever the number is.
If they’ve been spending inefficiently. it makes sense to try to spend more efficiently.
All that said, ownership needs to be careful. They canned the scapegoat and the narrative is clearly retargeting while the franchise across town is outspending them on a 15 man roster in a salary cap league.
are people freaking out? All of these posts are saying “this doesn’t sound good” or yuck. People are freaking out way more about others assumed freak outs than the actual happenings
Pretty scary stuff really.
The smoke surrounding the team is not good right now.
Yuck
As has been demonstrated numerous times in these various threads, the Red Sox payroll was top three in the game until 2022 and 2023, when the Sox were rebuilding. If it doesn’t return to those heights in the next two years now the Sox have emerged from the rebuild we’ll all be disappointed. The Sox roster when the season opens should give us some clues about the likelihood of that happening.Over the last 5 years several teams have significantly increased spending. They include the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, Phillies, and Padres. Our payroll has declined. When that many teams pass you in payroll it becomes an ownership problem. Revenue is not down.
Has it declined or fluctuated, as it has done multiple times in the last 20 years?Over the last 5 years several teams have significantly increased spending. They include the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, Phillies, and Padres. Our payroll has declined. When that many teams pass you in payroll it becomes an ownership problem. Revenue is not down.
If the Red Sox were rebuilding in 2022 and 2023, why don’t they be doing so in 2024, too? What’s changed in the last two years?As has been demonstrated numerous times in these various threads, the Red Sox payroll was top three in the game until 2022 and 2023, when the Sox were rebuilding. If it doesn’t return to those heights in the next two years now the Sox have emerged from the rebuild we’ll all be disappointed. The Sox roster when the season opens should give us some clues about the likelihood of that happening.
Per spotrac from 2019-2023 our luxury tax spending decreased by $60 million. The six teams I’ve listed have increased theirs by a combined $520 million. When it comes to spending smart we’ve fallen behind the teams with top farm systems like the Braves and Orioles.Has it declined or fluctuated, as it has done multiple times in the last 20 years?
I understand the context of other teams spending more but it’s also important to spend better.
Its a considerably weaker class that this year. Why are we thinking that they are going to get better values then?Next year's free agent class is very robust, especially in the pitching department.
I'm as disappointed in this offseason as the rest of us, but spending unwisely can prevent the team from improving meaningfully by paying big money to mediocre performers.
If they start locking up some of these core pieces on long-term deals (like Casas and Bello) some of this will make more sense.
What are you talking about? Honestly, what point are you making? Do you not know what has changed for the 2024 season?If the Red Sox were rebuilding in 2022 and 2023, why don’t they be doing so in 2024, too? What’s changed in the last two years?
Was under the impression that they were looking to contend in each of the last two years, and assumed they were this year too.