Offseason rumors

[The Gray Eagle]

Chapman will be 31 in April and is projected to get $150 million over 5 or 6 years. That's not a good situation for Boston to get into, as that money would be better used on a pitcher, and his defense is really likely to fade over that time, and that's the major appeal of him.
His defense seems like it's already dropped a bit from the amazing level he was at a couple years ago to solidly above average.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-chapman/16505/stats?position=3B
2021, Age 28: UZR/150: 8.8, OAA 17, RAA 12
2022, age 29: UZR/150: 4.2, OAA 1, RAA 0
2023, age 30: UZR/150: 4.1, OAA 4 RAA 3

He would definitely help the defense and would add power, but I wouldn't want to give him 5 or even 4 years at the type of money he is likely to get, plus losing the draft pick.
If he was available for one or 2 years with no QO he would probably make sense, but not at the long term he is likely to get.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I think the Chapman discussion ONLY makes sense if the Red Sox were to strike out on Yamamoto, Montgomery and Snell and continue to not be able to move prospects for MLB starting pitching.

At that point, you probably have to look at the next tier of SPs down and you might be able to get by focusing on improving infield defense and buying in the "mid cap" markets, so to speak.

Something like Bello, Stroman, Giolito and Crawford pitching in front of (ish) the present infield defense would be atrocious. Put that (high GB rates) in front of Casas, "Rosario", Chapman and Story and you can see how that would work for the next 4ish years while Breslow tries desperately to improve the pitching in the minors.

Certainly not ideal, however. And I'd far rather go 10/$400 to Yamamoto (or 7/$175m to Montgomery and 5/$90m for Imanaga) instead. But if we get rebuffed across the board by attempts at better SP options, I can see it...

 

[moondog80]

I could see Chapman being in the narrow range where he's good enough tor turn down the QO, but not good enough where teams don't care about it and has to accept much less than he's looking for. Can't remember who but it's happened a couple of times. Might be looking at a 2 or 3 year deal with an opt-out after year 1.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Interesting with Valdez and Luzardo — both great pitchers — rumored to be shopped that each had a considerable slide in the “third time through the order” department this year.

Here’s how opposing batters fared (by expected wOBA) the first, second, and third times through the lineup in 2023.

Valdez
2019 - .279
2020 - .278
2021 - .312
2022 - .284
2023 - .365

Luzardo
2020 - .367
2021 - .347
2022 - .332
2023 - .351

The league average in 2023 is .344. So by this metric, hitters facing Valdez and Luzardo the third time through the lineup in 2023 fared better than league average.

Where did you get that data. This is the league average by plate appearance:
1 OPS .727
2 OPS .742
3. OPS .782
4 OPS .709
I got this here - I suspect I am misreading the data
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&lg=MLB&year=2023#all_times

 

[simplicio]

Triston Casas, on the other hand, has had one Major League season and has been a good player for a half of one season (1st half - 78 games: 728 OPS/ 2nd half - 54 games: .1013 OPS). Sure, he looked great during that stretch, but that second half was only 54 games, which is less than Bobby Dalbec's dominant 61 game stretch in the second half of 2021. And while I would be shocked if he ended up like Dalbec, let's not pretend that that a half-season of elite hitting is a guarantee of similar performance in the future. It's also true that as a first baseman, and a bad fielding one at that, he will need to be a very good hitter to generate significant value.

It's a 107 game sample size; he was good from May on, but his April was so terrible that it brought is overall numbers down significantly. .916 OPS on the season from May 1.

 

[cantor44]

It's a 107 game sample size; he was good from May on, but his April was so terrible that it brought is overall numbers down significantly. .916 OPS on the season from May 1.

It's not completely determinative or anything, but if you read interviews with him, he his devoted to studying the craft/science of hitting and is incredibly articulate about it, a la Ted Williams. Like obsessive study. My guess is that he will continue to improve until his physical skills decline.

 

[chawson]

Where did you get that data. This is the league average by plate appearance:
1 OPS .727
2 OPS .742
3. OPS .782
4 OPS .709
I got this here - I suspect I am misreading the data
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&lg=MLB&year=2023#all_times

I used expected wOBA (per Statcast), looks like you're using OPS.

 

[Jimbodandy]

It's not completely determinative or anything, but if you read interviews with him, he his devoted to studying the craft/science of hitting and is incredibly articulate about it, a la Ted Williams. Like obsessive study. My guess is that he will continue to improve until his physical skills decline.

He had to adjust to the league when he came up and was admittedly terrible in Mar/Apr. Then he did, and went 105, 130, 216, 143, 132 in wRC+ for May/Jun/Jul/Aug/Sept-Oct. The league didn't adjust to him, and he just kept getting on base and slugging. Is it possible that they will next year or the year after, finding a hole in swing or something, sure. But like you say, he's a gifted kid and a student of hitting. Guy finished 19th in all of baseball in wRC+ even with that awful start, filtered for 500+ PAs.

 

[tims4wins]

He had to adjust to the league when he came up and was admittedly terrible in Mar/Apr. Then he did, and went 105, 130, 216, 143, 132 in wRC+ for May/Jun/Jul/Aug/Sept-Oct. The league didn't adjust to him, and he just kept getting on base and slugging. Is it possible that they will next year or the year after, finding a hole in swing or something, sure. But like you say, he's a gifted kid and a student of hitting. Guy finished 19th in all of baseball in wRC+ even with that awful start, filtered for 500+ PAs.

It's pretty similar to Pedroia.

Pedroia came up in August 2006. He had 98 PAs with a .561 OPS.

He was then at .518 through 68 PAs in 2007.

Then, Laser Show.

Casas had 95 PAs to end 2022. He did better than Pedroia due to his walks and SLG (766 OPS), but only hit .197.

Then, he was at .563 OPS through 96 PAs in 2023. .922 from there on out.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

He had to adjust to the league when he came up and was admittedly terrible in Mar/Apr. Then he did, and went 105, 130, 216, 143, 132 in wRC+ for May/Jun/Jul/Aug/Sept-Oct. The league didn't adjust to him, and he just kept getting on base and slugging. Is it possible that they will next year or the year after, finding a hole in swing or something, sure. But like you say, he's a gifted kid and a student of hitting. Guy finished 19th in all of baseball in wRC+ even with that awful start, filtered for 500+ PAs.

Or if one wants to be even more optimistic...

He made the adjustment to the "book" on him after about a month of the season. He then improved through May and June before becoming an absolute terror in July and August. The league adjusted to his adjustment and even then he was an .858OPS guy in September.

There are few pieces I'd trade Casas for at this point, and Luzardo is not one of them. Which doesn't mean I dislike Luzardo at all, to be clear. If Miami would accept something like Mayer + Duran for Luzardo, I'd do that in a second (but I seriously doubt Miami would).

 

[bosockboy]

Morosi says Burnes (and Adames) is gonna move.

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1737532321773842488?s=46

 

[E5 Yaz]

Morosi says Burnes (and Adames) is gonna move.

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1737532321773842488?s=46

Lot of room between "could" and "gonna"

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Morosi says Burnes (and Adames) is gonna move.

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1737532321773842488?s=46

This is the move I'd make even over YY and if it's possible to absorb a big salary like Yellich in a trade, that'd be fine really. Put Yorke and Winkelman up for one season of Burnes and Adames.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

This is the move I'd make even over YY and if it's possible to absorb a big salary like Yellich in a trade, that'd be fine really. Put Yorke and Winkelman up for one season of Burnes and Adames.

My favorite part of the offseason is seeing how many trade proposals you can come up with for Yorke

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Mayer or Bello for Burnes and Adames works for BTV. Yorke and Gonzalez doesn’t come close. Given how high the demand is for pitching, I’d imagine the prices to be even higher. Ultimately, though, do we believe the rumors that the Sox aren’t interested in trading for players with just a year left anyways? Also not sure how great a fit is Adames- would they keep him to SS and move Story again?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

This is the move I'd make even over YY and if it's possible to absorb a big salary like Yellich in a trade, that'd be fine really. Put Yorke and Winkelman up for one season of Burnes and Adames.

Those two wouldn't get you Burnes alone, let alone Adames too.

 

[moondog80]

Absorbing Yelich would be tough. He's still an above average hitter, but he's also a crappy LF who is already 31 and signed for 5 more years at 26 mil per. (Sidebar: locking your guys up long term doesn't always work out. Sons of John Jaha probably celebrated when that deal was signed.)

BTV has him so underwater (-40.8) that including him with Burnes (33.8) and Adames (11.1) basically nets them nothing (4.1).

 

[ehaz]

Morosi says Burnes (and Adames) is gonna move.

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1737532321773842488?s=46

Burnes spoke recently about a sign-and-extend. TLDR: the deal would need to blow him away.

I’d still try and would be fine offering Burnes Strasburg money (8/$250?)

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/corbin-burnes-trade-rumors-extension-free-agent.html

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Those two wouldn't get you Burnes alone, let alone Adames too.

The "absorbing Yellich" part was what I figured would make it happen.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Absorbing Yelich would be tough. He's still an above average hitter, but he's a crappy LF who is already 31 and signed for 5 more years at 26 mil per. BTV has him so underwater (-40.8) that including him with Burnes (33.8) and Adames (11.1) basically nets them nothing (4.1).

He was a 4.1 WAR player last year and with a .370 OBP and above-average defense. He's never had a OBP below .355. Given that cap room is the prime asset that we have right now, if taking on Yelich's salary keeps the prospect haul below the Mayer/Anthony/Bello range that would be an awesome trade for the Sox, with or without Adames.

I just don't get why the Brewers are selling when they won the NL Central last year and totally could again next year.

 

[bosockboy]

He was a 4.1 WAR player last year and with a .370 OBP and above-average defense. He's never had a OBP below .355. Given that cap room is the prime asset that we have right now, if taking on Yelich's salary keeps the prospect haul below the Mayer/Anthony/Bello range that would be an awesome trade for the Sox, with or without Adames.

I just don't get why the Brewers are selling when they won the NL Central last year and totally could again next year.

No Woodruff and want to maximize Burnes return before he walks. Counsell also gone-they are tearing it down.

 

[BringBackMo]

Lot of room between "could" and "gonna"

And between "and" and "or."

 

[6-5 Sadler]

My favorite part of the offseason is seeing how many trade proposals you can come up with for Yorke

Or how many times he can misspell Wikelman ;-)

In all seriousness, I don’t think an offer of Wikelman plus Yorke gets you either Burnes or Adames, and certainly not both. I think the Brewers are kind of a tough trade match for us…they don’t really need another OF with Yelich, Frelick, and Chourio so Ceddanne and Bleis wouldn’t make much sense. They could use SP but we don’t have any too 100 pitching talent. So you’re down to Mayer, Teel, Yorke as possible headliners in a trade…the first two we probably don’t want to move for guys with only one more year of team control.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Burnes spoke recently about a sign-and-extend. TLDR: the deal would need to blow him away.

I’d still try and would be fine offering Burnes Strasburg money (8/$250?)

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/corbin-burnes-trade-rumors-extension-free-agent.html

I remain amazed at the risk tolerance of some athletes. Burnes may ultimately may make more going to FA but no chance I take that risk as a SP who’s 10 months away from being 30. One elbow or shoulder injury and your earning potential goes way down, as he clearly saw with Woodruff.

 

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

He was a 4.1 WAR player last year and with a .370 OBP and above-average defense. He's never had a OBP below .355. Given that cap room is the prime asset that we have right now, if taking on Yelich's salary keeps the prospect haul below the Mayer/Anthony/Bello range that would be an awesome trade for the Sox, with or without Adames.

I just don't get why the Brewers are selling when they won the NL Central last year and totally could again next year.

Reminds me a bit of the Beckett/Lowell package. And that trade still cost us Hanley, who I think was the #1 prospect in all of baseball at the time. But the Lowell commitment wasn't as steep as Yelich.

 

[BringBackMo]

I remain amazed at the risk tolerance of some athletes. Burnes may ultimately may make more going to FA but no chance I take that risk as a SP who’s 10 months away from being 30. One elbow or shoulder injury and your earning potential goes way down, as he clearly saw with Woodruff.

These are good points. But let's not rule out the possibility that at least some of what he's say is simply a form of pre-negotiation with whatever team may trade for him with the hopes of extending him.

 

[BornToRun]

These are good points. But let's not rule out the possibility that at least some of what he's say is simply a form of pre-negotiation with whatever team may trade for him with the hopes of extending him.

Had the same thought. He doesn’t have much to gain by not playing hardball about his contract. Especially not if he gets traded to a team with deep pockets.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Reminds me a bit of the Beckett/Lowell package. And that trade still cost us Hanley, who I think was the #1 prospect in all of baseball at the time. But the Lowell commitment wasn't as steep as Yelich.

Does for me as well. Beckett was 26 at the time. BTW in looking him up I had forgotten how awful he was in 2006.

 

[BornToRun]

Does for me as well. Beckett was 26 at the time. BTW in looking him up I had forgotten how awful he was in 2006.

Even year Beckett could be a cruel mistress.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

FWIW, the largest contracts for pitchers are Cole $324m, then Strasburg $245m, then DeGrom $185m, Nola this year at $172m is presently 4th (assume Yamamoto is going to be 1st or 2nd when this is done). If someone offered Boras (Burnes) somewhere around 7/$210m I think he'd take it. Maybe you'd have to go up to something like 7/$225m, but if he were paid above market value for similar comps, I think he'd take it.

If - and only if - the deal was contingent upon agreement of an extension (like Glasnow), there isn't a prospect in the system that I'd have as off limits. On a straight one year rental, the price in prospects I'd be willing to part with would come WAAAAY down.

Edit - copied the wrong post to respond to. @The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

Hanley's prospect star had actually fallen off pretty dramatically by that point in time (at least by Baseball America, which is the only one I've been able to dig up). Beckett (and Lowell) were acquired before the 2006 season. Hanley had dropped from #10 before the 2005 season to #30 before 2006. Sanchez was nearly as highly ranked (40th).

You may be thinking of Moncada (for Sale) whom was ranked 2, 2 and 5 by BA, MLB and BP, respectively. Kopech was 32, 16 and 36, respectively.


Contracts : https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/
*All rankings are from their Minor League pages on BBRef, I can link them all if someone really wants.*

 

[loneredseat]

Absorbing Yelich would be tough. He's still an above average hitter, but he's also a crappy LF who is already 31 and signed for 5 more years at 26 mil per. (Sidebar: locking your guys up long term doesn't always work out. Sons of John Jaha probably celebrated when that deal was signed.)

BTV has him so underwater (-40.8) that including him with Burnes (33.8) and Adames (11.1) basically nets them nothing (4.1).

So is this where BTV kinda breaks down? I can't imagine the Brewers trading away Yelich, Burnes, and Adames for almost nothing. If they are willing, it's awfully tempting. Like you said, Yelich is still a good hitter. Then, WHEN we add another top tier pitcher we're starting to look like something.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Can't link to X, but Mike Rodriguez is reporting the Sox are in on Domingo German and have met with him.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Can't link to X, but Mike Rodriguez is reporting the Sox are in on Domingo German and have met with him.

That’s going to go over well

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Can't link to X, but Mike Rodriguez is reporting the Sox are in on Domingo German and have met with him.

Met with him =/= "in on him"

Rodriguez also says that he's met with the Padres and Orioles and they are considered his most likely destinations.

View: https://twitter.com/mikedeportes/status/1737480448362623029


"Sources: #Boston, San Diego and Baltimore have met with RHP Domingo Germán. #Padres and #Orioles possible final destination. He will receive recognition in Miami in the Caribbean Series for his perfect game from Juan Marichal in February. #DomingoGerman

 

[E5 Yaz]

overkill

 

[InsideTheParker]

Ugh. Just say No.

 

[moondog80]

He did something terrible (domestic violence) in 2019 and served an 81 game suspension. He seems to have grown since then. If they conduct a check that reveals nothing to indicate otherwise, I'm OK with him playing in MLB.


https://www.nj.com/yankees/2023/02/how-yankees-domingo-german-saved-his-family-and-career-after-domestic-violence-everything-was-a-mess.html

 

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

He did something terrible in 2019 and served an 81 game suspension. He seems to have grown since then. If they conduct a check that reveals nothing to indicate otherwise, I'm OK with it.


https://www.nj.com/yankees/2023/02/how-yankees-domingo-german-saved-his-family-and-career-after-domestic-violence-everything-was-a-mess.html

He's got an alcohol issue, too (plenty of guys can get sober; not saying that this alone is a reason to not check in on him). You'd need to do more than homework. It'd be research thesis to make sure everything still checks out with that article.

Too much baggage for me. You can find a better version of him in someone else.

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

I'm annoyed that they would even meet with German. If they sign him, I'm out on the Sox until he's gone.

 

[BigSoxFan]

He's got an alcohol issue, too (plenty of guys can get sober; not saying that this alone is a reason to not check in on him). You'd need to do more than homework. It'd be research thesis to make sure everything still checks out with that article.

Too much baggage for me. You can find a better version of him in someone else.

He also got caught cheating. So many red flags with him. Hope this is general due diligence and nothing more.

 

[bosox1534]

I'm annoyed that they would even meet with German. If they sign him, I'm out on the Sox until he's gone.

I get that you don’t like the guy, but I can guarantee you will still watch Red Sox games if he is on the roster.

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

I get that you don’t like the guy, but I can guarantee you will still watch Red Sox games if he is on the roster.

No, you can't. What a weird thing to say to someone you don't know.

 

[bosox1534]

No, you can't. What a weird thing to say to someone you don't know.

If you’re on this forum you’re obviously a dedicated informed fan, and I find it hard to believe that a guy who made a big mistake 4 years ago and served his suspension is going to keep you from paying attention to your favorite team for an entire season.

 

[jbupstate]

He also got caught cheating. So many red flags with him. Hope this is general due diligence and nothing more.

Pro athletes cheating? I don’t believe it.

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

If you’re on this forum you’re obviously a dedicated informed fan, and I find it hard to believe that a guy who made a big mistake 4 years ago and served his suspension is going to keep you from paying attention to your favorite team for an entire season.

Mistake is a bit benign of a descriptor of physical domestic violence for my taste ("became physically violent toward his girlfriend until she hid in a locked room"). And it's not like he's been on the straight and narrow for the past four years. Look at his behavior as a teammate as recently as August ("Domingo Germán had arguments with Aaron Boone and teammates during Tuesday’s incident. He flipped a couch, smashed a TV and made jokes while teammate Ron Marinaccio packed his bags for Triple-A."). I'll have no trouble checking out on the Red Sox as long as Domingo German is on the team.

 

[YTF]

This is the move I'd make even over YY and if it's possible to absorb a big salary like Yellich in a trade, that'd be fine really. Put Yorke and Winkelman up for one season of Burnes and Adames.

I'm still not understanding what one year of these two players does for this franchise.

 

[bosox1534]

Mistake is a bit benign of a descriptor of physical domestic violence for my taste ("became physically violent toward his girlfriend until she hid in a locked room"). And it's not like he's been on the straight and narrow for the past four years. Look at his behavior as a teammate as recently as August ("Domingo Germán had arguments with Aaron Boone and teammates during Tuesday’s incident. He flipped a couch, smashed a TV and made jokes while teammate Ron Marinaccio packed his bags for Triple-A."). I'll have no trouble checking out on the Red Sox as long as Domingo German is on the team.

The man obviously had a severe alcohol addiction, and while by no means does this excuse him of his domestic abuse, it’s obviously something that affected him and from what I’ve read it’s something he’s working on. Probably a lot of discussion that will lead to nothing because I don’t think we’re going to sign him anyway.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I'm still not understanding what one year of these two players does for this franchise.

Really? It’s not like they couldn’t sign Burnes when he hits FA. I’d probably let Adames walk. But one year is what Sale has remaining…. If you get good Chris Sale, there’s a very good chance they could go deep in the playoffs with that rotation. Add Montgomery and it’s great.
You have Sales money plus after ‘24 to offer Burnes.
Adames as a SS/2B for ‘24 would open up for Mayer in ‘25.

 

[YTF]

Really? It’s not like they couldn’t sign Burnes when he hits FA. I’d probably let Adames walk. But one year is what Sale has remaining…. If you get good Chris Sale, there’s a very good chance they could go deep in the playoffs with that rotation. Add Montgomery and it’s great.
You have Sales money plus after ‘24 to offer Burnes.
Adames as a SS/2B for ‘24 would open up for Mayer in ‘25.

I just have trouble seeing the upside of giving up what it might take to get these two with no guarantee that Burnes re-ups. We've finally got some trade chips of value and that's great, but IMO we're not yet in the territory of having excess talent in the minors at multiple positions or in a position where they might be able to overpay for a one year guy when he's not going to be THE guys who is the difference maker in that particular year. Adames separately as a one year stop gap providing either he or Story have no issue playing second base? Sure it addresses a definite need, actually two needs.

 

[BornToRun]

Mistake is a bit benign of a descriptor of physical domestic violence for my taste ("became physically violent toward his girlfriend until she hid in a locked room"). And it's not like he's been on the straight and narrow for the past four years. Look at his behavior as a teammate as recently as August ("Domingo Germán had arguments with Aaron Boone and teammates during Tuesday’s incident. He flipped a couch, smashed a TV and made jokes while teammate Ron Marinaccio packed his bags for Triple-A."). I'll have no trouble checking out on the Red Sox as long as Domingo German is on the team.

Seconded for the record. I don’t mind rooting for assholes but there’s a line.