In addition, that money will be worth less due to the value of a dollar declining with inflation and also due to continued inflation in player salaries. Who knows what it might cost 8 years from now to sign a top flight free agent pitcher.
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Or they can absolutely afford it but wanted to explore potential avenues where they could get the same production for a lot less. If they felt confident they could get similar production spending $50M on pitcher A as they would spending $150M on pitcher B, why not at least consider signing pitcher A and keeping some powder dry to address some other position?
Of course it could also be as simple as wanting to keep as many options available as possible in case the expensive guy they really want chooses to sign somewhere else.
Though one would think they would sign a second-tier guy (Flaherty, Wacha, Lugo, all the dudes St. Louis signed) to go along with YY if they did get him; would need a guy like that regardless. Why not just do that now? And yet, one after the other, off the board they go. If the strategy is to sign YY or bust, well, that seems the opposite of a diversified plan that Breslow has referenced. The odds are they WON'T get YY. And every day that goes by that they wait to make other moves, it seems more likely they won't get anyone.
This could all change in flash. A big surprise and they get YY! Or they pull the trigger and sign Montgomery and Snell or something. But it's hard not to see the team in the same mode under Breslow as it was under Bloom. Same kind of general corporate speak used in interviews, same nibble-around-the-edges-misfit-toy acquisitions, same sense that the organization seems flat-footed, or unwilling to make the commitment in money or prospects to acquire all-star caliber talent from outside the organization.
It's hard to shake that perception, given how the last few years have gone. But clearly, it's unfair to Breslow to judge so quickly. I like him. Let's hope he can be bold, or that Henry et al, allow him to be. And that they get some f-ing quality arms that are CURRENTLY healthy and good.
It seems very possible that all the Bloom non-moves that everyone hated may have been because of shackles from ownership if Breslow ends up in the same situation, no?
I understood Bloom's plan and it made sense knowing where the Sox were (maybe were even worse off because Henry was seriously pushing for reigning in spending longer term?) and not making moves until the new core was at a certain point- not signing Wacha or Eovaldi to longer deals after last off-season, not pushing for X longer term- but I believed it was in an attempt to restock the finances and make a major move towards Soto in '25 and YY in '24 (or similar big splashes) and then get some long term deals in for Casas and Bello at good value. Now I'm not sure... maybe there's a surprise but it's FEELING unlikely (or maybe I'm just getting caught up in the Negative Horde mentality?) which makes me think something else is going on at the upper levels.
I understood Bloom's plan and it made sense knowing where the Sox were (maybe were even worse off because Henry was seriously pushing for reigning in spending longer term?) and not making moves until the new core was at a certain point- not signing Wacha or Eovaldi to longer deals after last off-season, not pushing for X longer term- but I believed it was in an attempt to restock the finances and make a major move towards Soto in '25 and YY in '24 (or similar big splashes) and then get some long term deals in for Casas and Bello at good value. Now I'm not sure... maybe there's a surprise but it's FEELING unlikely (or maybe I'm just getting caught up in the Negative Horde mentality?) which makes me think something else is going on at the upper levels.
Let's say you sign Yamamoto to 12 years $330M. Five years from now, Yamamoto will be entering his age 30 season. That's the same age most big contract pitchers hit free agency. Yamamoto would have 7/$192M left. That's about market for a #2 starter right now. It's basically the same contract Aaron Nola got. Montgomery and Snell might get the same or more.
Yeah, even though it is risky contract for a guy who has never pitched in MLB, I think the Yankees would go to $330m for similar reasons. If true, the Baerga rumor yesterday probably wasn't a final offer.
Wouldn't shock me if such a deal included an opt-out so Yamamoto could hit free agency again entering his age 30 or 31 season and maybe try to do better. My guess is the top free agent pitcher in 2028 or 2029 will be getting more than 7/192.
View: https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1735728517579481361?s=46
Someone I’d absolutely put Mayer+ up for.
Someone I’d absolutely put Mayer+ up for.
How much do people really want Yamamoto because they think he is worth the money, and how much is it because you just really want the Sox to potentially land an ace?
I'm all for spending big money and the Sox need to do something to help their pitching, but someone else can pay Yamamoto that money.
I'm all for spending big money and the Sox need to do something to help their pitching, but someone else can pay Yamamoto that money.
Rosenthal wrote a little blurb in a trade market roundup story that "new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix is said to be perhaps more open to moving a starter than his predecessor, Kim Ng."
I want him for both reasons - need and I believe in the talent and his ability to come over and be an elite SP.
It's just nice to show that you're serious about building a contender. The scrap heap finds don't generally install that confidence in your fanbase.
Previous reports where Red Sox brass stated a want to trade for a starter before signing a free agent combined with later reports that the Mariners rebuffed a Sox approach indicate Breslow doesn’t necessarily want to sign two FA pitchers. It sounds like he prefers to trade for a cost controlled starter and sign a FA.
That approach isn’t without its problems because, as other posters have noted, teams have little incentive to trade controllable SPs until after the FA pitchers sign.
Two questions, IF the the plan is to sign a top tier FA and then acquire another via trade, why would Breslow sign one of the "lesser" FAs before doing either of the former?
Second. rhetorical... Breslow has a certain type of pitcher that he's focused on. Do we know how many of the signees fit that mold?
He has won the equivalent of the MVP and Cy Young for the last three years. Pretty sure that people think that he is worth the money.
I want the Sox to land a potential ace, and Yamamoto offers the highest potential reward despite the risk. I also want the Sox to pump up the entertainment value and give me another reason to actually watch games, instead of just tracking the team through box scores. Superstars like Pedro, Manny, and Ortiz were appointment viewing for me, and I'd like to feel that way about a Sox player again.
While I agree that I'd certainly do that trade too, there is no way the Marlins would. They're going to want a heck of a lot more than Marcelo Mayer (and I know you said plus, but it'd have to be a pretty big PLUS).
Figure Beckett cost Hanley Ramirez and ASanchez and the Sox were able to help them get out from under the Lowell contract. There really isn't a Lowell contract to absorb and while even with dropping down into the "top 15" rank from the "top 10" ranks in terms of prospects, but maybe AGarcia is close.
So, Mayer is still ranked a good deal ahead of where Hanley was at the time of the deal. But the Sox have no pitcher in the organization (outside of Bello) that is perceived as valuable as ASanchez was at the time (top 40 prospect).
It's incredibly difficult do deal for pitching when you have no (as perceived by the Prospect Ranking Industry Complex, at least) valuable pitching prospects to deal.
Maybe the Marlins want to get out from the AGarcia deal badly enough for it to probably have to look something like Mayer, Bleis and they pick an MLB OF (Duran, Abreu, Rafaela) of their choice for Luzardo and AGarcia. They'd probably get better offers than that, but just as an "at least this seems reasonable for Miami" kind of way.
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Shrug. I think the first preference is to sign one or two SP at a good contract rates (whatever that means, and whatever the combo is - a #1 and a #3, two #2s, etc.). Once YY falls off the board there are going to be teams with cash in hand that will pivot to their second choices. I don't doubt some of the second choices are waiting for that.
I think the second preference is to trade for a SP at a good rate of return. That probably happens later in the off-season. Some teams will want to have a FA in hand before they trade a starter unless the package for that starter is overwhelming. Breslow has some attractive pieces he can move and some legitimate prospects and post-prospect projects (e.g., Dalbec) to include. But I think you generally want to add a FA SP at the right cost first rather than shipping out talent to acquire talent.
So - patience. Breslow will do what he does. Then we assess.
But I agree - I would not have been disappointed if they locked in a second tier FA SP by now.
I think he has a good chance to be “worth” the money, although that gets harder if the price tag inches towards $350m. He’s entering his age 26 season, right? Health permitting, his prime years should be crazy valuable on a dollar/WAR basis, and then any value provided after age 33 or so is gravy. Not my money, but I wouldn’t have a problem signing him at a ~$25m AAV through his mid-30s, so call it 12/$300m. At $350m, I probably swallow hard and do it.
And yeah, not my money, but also not my team equity. These big international stars seem good for the franchise value beyond their considerable on-field benefit.
I don’t recall anyone being in favor of 10 years at $30M+ until very recently.
The Red Sox are pretty close to being a very good team. The biggest thing standing between the Sox and the truly competitive team we all want is an ace or two. It's the same as when they were talking about getting Pedro. A young player of ace caliber is the single most important asset the team can get. If there is anything you're willing to pay a shit ton for, it's this.
Part of the assessment of what a guy is worth is what other teams are willing to pay for it.
Markets change. We’ve all had to recalibrate our expectations there given the movement. Many of us have been ok paying market rate, whatever that ends up being, since the beginning of the FA period. There may be some attrition as that figure climbs though.
Rosenthal (I think) was speculating today that they were going after Kershaw, and have him and DeGrom reinforce the staff after the ASG. With Scherzer also going down, it seems logical they'd want Montgomery back and/or trade for someone like Cease or Bieber
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Yes, and in contrast adding two guys who can give us 2.5 WAR might cost the same price and barely constitute an upgrade.
Exactly. It's clear that this is a robust market year (hello Ohtani contract) but also that Yamamoto is being priced as a free agent, not just as a posted guy. Many of us were in on the market rate, whatever that is, and still are.
Are they really, though? The rotation is a mess, but how is everyone feeling about the offense? O’Neill for Verdugo is fine, but they are down Turner and Duvall. Seems like a lot riding on Duran and Story and whomever plays 2b. A lot of work to do (and plenty of time to do it!)
Wanting Scherzer, Kershaw and DeGrom all on one team in 2024 seems completely insane to me. Will they be bolstering their offense by signing the frozen head of Ted Williams?
Yeah. I'd disagree that they are close to being a good team, they've got a lot of holes across the roster and are banking on some positive strides and health from a lot of guys. I don't think Yamamoto gets them over the top, which is probably why I'm more weary on breaking the bank for him.
CURRENT UNIVERSE
"I can't believe Breslow is focusing his attention on trying to sign only the top, top, top free agent starting pitchers! Look at all these lower-quality pitchers that all these more aggressive teams have signed! Why can the Sox never be bold?"
ALTERNATE UNIVERSE
"I can't believe Breslow signed all these OKish free agent starting pitchers instead of focusing his attention on the top, top, top starting pitchers that are still out there! Do you see more aggressive teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies taking this path? Why can the Sox never be bold?"
"I can't believe Breslow is focusing his attention on trying to sign only the top, top, top free agent starting pitchers! Look at all these lower-quality pitchers that all these more aggressive teams have signed! Why can the Sox never be bold?"
ALTERNATE UNIVERSE
"I can't believe Breslow signed all these OKish free agent starting pitchers instead of focusing his attention on the top, top, top starting pitchers that are still out there! Do you see more aggressive teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies taking this path? Why can the Sox never be bold?"
Yamamoto is both worth the money and is a potential ace. The market for players like him is what it is and is only going to increase over time. This move is really a no brainer in my opinion because the Red Sox need some star power and are very thin on high end pitching.
Yeah, I’m completely comfortable with Y2K at Cole money. Look at his line in NPB, any pitcher putting up those numbers in AAA would occasion a feeding frenzy if they were given free agency. NPB is better. And last year he allowed 22 earned runs in 164 innings. He’s insanely good. He won’t be that good against better competition, but jaysus, he’s going to anchor the front of a rotation.
MLB has an article asking if lighting could strike twice and Boston recapture Dice-K magic with YY.
Umm.
"Hey Yoshinobu Yamamoto, we previously signed Daisuke Matsuzaka who pitched his arm off for us and helped win the 2007 World Series. He was always treated with respect by our fan-base and our media. You don't have to talk to him about that though. You can just go to the archives on this site, where you'll find nothing but support when he was facing adversity and. . .oh rats. Looks like those years have been deleted."
Umm.
"Hey Yoshinobu Yamamoto, we previously signed Daisuke Matsuzaka who pitched his arm off for us and helped win the 2007 World Series. He was always treated with respect by our fan-base and our media. You don't have to talk to him about that though. You can just go to the archives on this site, where you'll find nothing but support when he was facing adversity and. . .oh rats. Looks like those years have been deleted."
He's going to sign a 10-year contract; who cares if he doesn't make them a World Series contender next year?
Genuine question for you and other posters who believe it doesn't make sense to sign a big free agent or trade prospects because it doesn't "get them over the top": by the same logic, would you have opposed trading for Pedro Martinez in 1997?
hm, I'm not sure about that, they'd have to have a lot of confidence in his skills. He's controllable for three seasons. His FIP and hard-hit %s don't sound like a guy you break the bank for. Is he much better than Kutter Crawford?
The rotation isn't a mess. We've got five or six guys who can fill the back end of the rotation. The front of the rotation is missing. The bullpen is in good shape. Yes, we're worried about Story's health, the young guys, and whoever the hell is playing second. But their high ends are pretty damn high and the depth--assuming we get a real second baseman--is much better than it was last year.
Get more innings from the starters. The bullpen goes from holding it together to exceling because they're not being asked to do too much. The depth options have a floor of mediocrity instead of suckitude. We won 78 games last year, which is only 12 away from 90. Add two top starting pitchers, a real second baseman, and a RHH who can play the outfield--the hitters don't have to carry the lineup, just contribute. And if Duran, Rafaela, and Abreu end up turning into one star, one JAG, and one bust, we're in that range where we're looking at tinkering to get from a 90ish win total to a high 90s win total.
Put in a more hypothetical sense, if you imagine a perfectly average team, and replace a mediocre starter with Pedro Martinez. The team goes 25-5 in his starts and perfectly .500 elsewhere. That's a 91 win team.
The problem with teams that lose is that they ask players to do things the players aren't good at. Some of that is inevitable because baseball, but you want to minimize it. Get more innings from your top starters and your bullpen can be used more optimally. With a bullpen in better shape, you don't have to squeeze outs from a back end starter who looks like he's losing it. Better defense means fewer pitches thrown, fewer baserunners, and fewer high-stress pitches overall.
I was actually thinking about this the other day and I wonder with someone his age how he views past Japanese players success or if it even matters.
Has anyone had more Japanese players win a ring the last 15 years than this ownership group? They have to be way up on that list if not number 1.
Honestly, our best argument for signing high tier guys is to show them the rings we've had this century.
It's funny to see all of the parallels between the Sox and the Pats, including the "they're close to being a good team" vs. "they suck" opinions.
FWIW, as of a year ago Dice-K still lived part of the year in the Boston area, and offered his advice to Yoshida after he signed.
https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/matsuzaka-is-at-the-ready-with-advice-for-masa-yoshida
So, regardless of how he was treated by the fan base, it didn't keep him from feeling at home here
https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/matsuzaka-is-at-the-ready-with-advice-for-masa-yoshida
So, regardless of how he was treated by the fan base, it didn't keep him from feeling at home here
Technically, yes, but he won't turn 26 until the end of August, so it's really his age 25 season.
That's actually quite a lot. Two top starting pitchers? So Yammamoto and one of Snell or Montgomery or Imanaga? I don't know how people think that is going to happen for the Sox, or any team really, given the shortage of front line pitching that is available and the number of teams that feel like they are one pitcher away from going over the top.
I'm sure Yamamoto will be pretty good, but can we calm down on the 1997 Pedro comparisons? Talk about setting yourself up for disappointment.
Yeah, that's where I'm at too. It's kind of like saying "you know, we were born on the same day, year and city, so I'm just the incredibly good looks and about a hundred million dollars away from being right there with Chris Evans."
To be clear, I really don't dispute any of @Rasputin other claims (possibly excepting that the team desperately needs another core, middle of the order player that can handle LHP and the assumption about the "ease" of filling 2nd base), but the two things most of us agree the team lacks (two top of the rotation starters) are incredibly hard to get.
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They already have a front of the rotation starter (per BP's WARP), they really only need one more. Story playing SS is going to make Bello better, and that's before factoring in Bailey. There's a good argument to make that Bailey can refine Crawford and Houck enough to perfectly fine mid rotation guys. With another top of the rotation guy they should be good enough to spare the bullpen. And there is certainly bullpen help close to the majors (Guerrero, Troye). Improving 2B defense would also help. They might not be title contenders in '24, but by '25 they will be.
Too bad Jake Cronneworth is left handed. The Padres may be looking to trade him a pay some of his salary. He certainly fits our 2nd base needs.
Actual rumor incoming...
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/latest-on-framber-valdez-2.html
Mayer-plus. Whatever it takes (except Teel and Anthony).
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/latest-on-framber-valdez-2.html
Mayer-plus. Whatever it takes (except Teel and Anthony).
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