Offseason rumors

[simplicio]

If Stroman had made 30+ starts the last couple years I'd be more into him, but as is I'd prefer the Montgomery 8/180 to the Stroman 3/70.

But also Breslow's just been working with him in Chicago, so if he says Stroman is in fact the guy then I'll buy it.

It does seem a little strange that nobody's really tried to link Stroman to us given that shared history though.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I agree. But I'd rather have Stroman + Imanaga at a shorter deal than non-ace, non-young Montgomery at 8 years. It's easy to say "worry about the end of the contract when you get there". It's also shitty financial advice. Which is not to say you should *never* sign long term deals that are likely to crap out at the end. But the bar might be higher than Jordan Montgomery.

If they were to get Imanaga on a 5 year deal, Stroman on a 3 and aggressively pursue a difference making second baseman, I’d almost call it a perfect offseason.

Lots of “if’s” but there are a lot of paths to a good team outside of Yamamoto and Montgomery.

 

[moondog80]

But also Breslow's just been working with him in Chicago, so if he says Stroman is in fact the guy then I'll buy it.

This is a good point. And it works both ways. If Stroman signs with someone other than the Cubs or Red Sox, I will take that as a bad sign.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

What is Montgomery in 3-5 years is Chris Sale circa 2020's?

We can ask this of any FA pitcher looking for a long-term deal. I have concerns too about the value of these kinds of deals (we are desperate but shouldn’t be Padres-our-owner-is-dying-desperate) but trying to guess right on mid-30s guys who will sign for one year season after season is not sustainable.

Edit: I’d be good with the offseason SBS outlined above.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I agree. But I'd rather have Stroman + Imanaga at a shorter deal than non-ace, non-young Montgomery at 8 years. It's easy to say "worry about the end of the contract when you get there". It's also shitty financial advice. Which is not to say you should *never* sign long term deals that are likely to crap out at the end. But the bar might be higher than Jordan Montgomery.

If the Sox are out on Yamamoto, then I’m in on Stoman and Imanaga. Especially on a four year deal for Storman Eight years for Montgomery doesn’t seem wise to me. Four years at a higher AAV, yes. But I don’t want any part of Jordan Montgomery at 36 or older.

Yamamoto is absolutely perfect for the Red Sox (and unfortunately a lot of other teams) and if they don’t land him, I’m really going to be bummed.

 

[simplicio]

I feel like 22m in 2029 baseball dollars isn't going to seem like all that much money, and if it's the cost of getting him I think the next 5 years are likely to be worth it.

 

[MuzzyField]

I love the farm building and tax reset we've endured, but with the change in leadership I'm off the slow roll pace and am not on board for another off season of Spaulding.


I won't like it at all.

 

[WayneHousieHOF]

Any word on how Merloni is feeling before bed tonight?

Hahahahaha nicely done

 

[E5 Yaz]

@LouMerloni
I’m actually shocked that nobody has mentioned the Phillies and Yamamoto. Do we really believe that Dave Dombrowski isn’t checking in. Meet your “Mystery Team”!!!

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

If the Sox are out on Yamamoto, then I’m in on Stoman and Imanaga. Especially on a four year deal for Storman Eight years for Montgomery doesn’t seem wise to me. Four years at a higher AAV, yes. But I don’t want any part of Jordan Montgomery at 36 or older.

Yamamoto is absolutely perfect for the Red Sox (and unfortunately a lot of other teams) and if they don’t land him, I’m really going to be bummed.

Are any of these spellings meant to be Stroman?

 

[Calzini Rossi]

If the Sox are out on Yamamoto, then I’m in on Stoman and Imanaga. Especially on a four year deal for Storman Eight years for Montgomery doesn’t seem wise to me. Four years at a higher AAV, yes. But I don’t want any part of Jordan Montgomery at 36 or older.

Yamamoto is absolutely perfect for the Red Sox (and unfortunately a lot of other teams) and if they don’t land him, I’m really going to be bummed.

I will also be very disappointed if we don't land Yamamoto, unless it is reported that he chose another team strictly due to non-monetary factors that we have no control over such as geography, quality of current roster, teammate preferences (i.e. Ohtani over Yoshida), etc. I am firmly in the Yamamoto or bust camp, but my hope is that we get very creative with our contract offers to him. You want 5/$225 with an opt-out after 4? Done. How about 8/$320 with opt-outs after 4 and 6? Deal. 12/$400 with opt-outs after 6 and 8? You got it. Do we need to frontload anything or are you more of a deferred compensation type of guy? NTC? Everything should be on the table.

Now that I've hopefully added some "signal" to the conversation, how am I still reading posts of yours on the main board after that nonsense from the other day? Obviously, I don't have access to Backwash as a lurker, but seriously, that didn't merit a time-out?

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Are any of these spellings meant to be Stroman?

Yup. I have to stop posting right before I go to bed and don’t have my glasses on.

 

[Rich Garces Belly]

Sign me up for 4 years of Stroman over 8 years of Monty. They would absolutely need to improve their infield defense if they do sign him though.

Signing both Stroman and Imanaga might not be a big splash but is a major improvement over last season and should put them in the playoffs as a Wild Card.

 

[Devizier]

Regarding the unnamed executive, I think it’s as credible enough source for a thread like this. That said, you’re not going to miss a lot of predictions when they are “no” predictions. I also don’t think anyone is out on a ledge here when claiming that the Red Sox don’t have the inside track on THE premier free agent remaining. Money being roughly equal, they’re not going to match the appeal of the Dodgers or honestly even Toronto. Money unequal favors the Dodgers (again) and of course the Mets. I also think the money is going to clear 400 million. These sorts of top of the market free agents always blow away expectations* and teams are making the same calculations posters here are, namely that there is less risk of a sunk cost on the back end of his contract.

*Fangraphs had Ohtani at $530M, crowdsource at $450M

Generally speaking, the Sox have been linked to ground ball guys, so I would doubt that they are looking at Giolito or even bringing back Wacha. It’s a tight market but at least they aren’t hurting for position players.

 

[YTF]

I think we are getting to that point... BUT they HAVE to get Snell and Montgomery at this point if go that route.... And could be tough now.

And the flip side to that is that while Yamamoto might get crazy money over crazy years, the cost to secure both Snell and Montgomery NOW will likely be two huge overpays. So you kind of have to weigh Yamamoto @ $30M + per year vs the other two @ $50M ish + per year. One of the three and a trade, if they can swing it, still seems to be the way to go IMO.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

And the flip side to that is that while Yamamoto might get crazy money over crazy years, the cost to secure both Snell and Montgomery NOW will likely be two huge overpays. So you kind of have to weigh Yamamoto @ $30M + per year vs the other two @ $50M ish + per year. One of the three and a trade, if they can swing it, still seems to be the way to go IMO.

I’m not so sure 30mm/yr will be the landing number. This is such a unique situation. I’m thinking it could push 14+ years with multiple opt outs.

 

[YTF]

If they were to get Imanaga on a 5 year deal, Stroman on a 3 and aggressively pursue a difference making second baseman, I’d almost call it a perfect offseason.

Lots of “if’s” but there are a lot of paths to a good team outside of Yamamoto and Montgomery.

This sounds pretty good, maybe even offer Stroman a fourth year and some sort of option, just to get the pitching staff settled. Then as you say, move onto second base. Use your trade capitol to there to help solidify the defense and add to the offense. I would also like to see a RH defensive minded 1B/3B with some offensive capabilities as a bench piece.

 

[YTF]

I’m not so sure 30mm/yr will be the landing number. This is such a unique situation. I’m thinking it could push 14+ years with multiple opt outs.

Yeah it's really hard to figure out a jumping off point here given the amount of interest in the payer as well the rippling Ohtani effect.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

My wife was from Japan and she absolutely wanted to be in a city with Japanese and aspects of Japanese culture.

Likewise, when I lived in Japan I was very glad to be living in a place with other foreigners.

Especially for a younger person new to a foreign country, I think having ex-pats around is a comfortable thing. I could imagine this being a factor for Yamamoto. I just hope the Yoshida factor cancels it out.

Does anyone remember posts on SOSH last year discussing team/player hierarchies and how certain Japanese players may not want to join a team with another Japanese star? I know this sounds strange but I swear I read posts on the topic during the Yoshida build up.

 

[moondog80]

Yeah it's really hard to figure out a jumping off point here given the amount of interest in the payer as well the rippling Ohtani effect.

Is there really an Ohtani effect? Headline grabbing numbers aside, he's actually getting less than most folks predicted in terms of real money, only a tick more than Max Scherzer's AAV. I won't be shocked if the final Yamamoto number is higher than people thought in September, but a good deal smaller than some of the figures thrown about in the past week or so.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

A Stroman addition and a trade for Burnes and Adames would be great. I would guess they'd be wanting Yorke and/or one of the other SS guys not named Mayer along with Houck or Whitlock. I'd really like to stay away from dealing Winkelman or Perales since they are the only starting pitchers even close to making it to the ML team at this point. Dealing one of them at this point thins out an already incredibly thin pitching talent in the minors with potential to be rotation mainstays.

 

[YTF]

Is there really an Ohtani effect? Headline grabbing numbers aside, he's actually getting less than most folks predicted in terms of real money, only a tick more than Max Scherzer's AAV. I won't be shocked if the final Yamamoto number is higher than people thought in September, but a good deal smaller than some of the figures thrown about in the past week or so.

Depending how you look at it, I think that there is even if for only that the structure of Ohtani's contract has the Dodgers looking like a more viable option for than he might otherwise have been. It might also inspire other "creative" type offers by teams who might have been out of the running when the bidding reaches a certain dollar amount. More teams staying in longer, if you will. Ohtani landing with LA might even force SF to feel a stronger sense of urgency when you consider that landing Yamamoto means that they took him from their top competitor at a time when another (San Diego) is facing a payroll crunch.

 

[BaseballJones]

Stroman has a nice proven track record of success. He’d be a nice addition. Montgomery is good too. Even at 8 years, he’s the kind of pitcher that should be good as he ages - not overly reliant on a big fastball, a lefty (they just seem to last longer), relies on defense. He should be able to maintain success as he ages.

I want Yamamoto so badly but if they didn’t and got these other two instead, that would still be a massive improvement over what they currently have.

But I doubt they get both of them. At this point I doubt if they get EITHER of them, never mind Yamamoto.

 

[simplicio]

On the 2B question, is there a better target than Drury out there or is he plan A? (I don't see Kim as realistic)

 

[Whoop-La White]

I am also in the camp where I would like to see them acquire two solid, reliable starters rather than put all their chips into one excellent one, especially one without an MLB track record. They aren’t one player away from anything. They need quantity.

 

[YTF]

On the 2B question, is there a better target than Drury out there or is he plan A? (I don't see Kim as realistic)

As a one year bridge with the addition of his CI flexibility I think he would be a good fit.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

On the 2B question, is there a better target than Drury out there or is he plan A? (I don't see Kim as realistic)

Personally I think the 2B will be brought in via trade (Adames hopefully) or they'll go with a Rafaela (or Story) platoon with Reyes and Valdez there (hopefully not Valdez). If they don't add a 2B from outside the organization I'd be comfortable with Rafaela/Reyes platoon (and a Rafaela/Duran CF platoon, which would also mean a Duran/Yoshida LF platoon) to be honest.

 

[moondog80]

But I doubt they get both of them. At this point I doubt if they get EITHER of them, never mind Yamamoto.

If you don't think they get any of those 3, what do you see happening? After last year, then all the bluster from Kennedy and Werner ("full throttle"), and Breslow talking about trading prospects, and the space they have under the tax, it seems unfathomable that we are looking at say, Michael Wacha and James Paxton. You might see some empty seats on opening day if that's how things go.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

But I doubt they get both of them. At this point I doubt if they get EITHER of them, never mind Yamamoto.

They are going to sign/trade for solid starters. It's very unlikely that they would have moved on from Bloom if this year's strategy was just a bunch of spare parts and lottery tickets.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1735291014472982561?s=46


The tone of this article is a little more dovish than I’d like. We will see.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The Sox made a multi-year offer to Lugo and he still went to KC? Imagine they probably only offered 2 years.

 

[Whoop-La White]

Lugo is from Shreveport, not exactly close to Kansas City (9 hrs by car) but I wonder if home proximity played a role in his decision.

 

[moondog80]

The Sox made a multi-year offer to Lugo and he still went to KC? Imagine they probably only offered 2 years.

Or they made a 3 year offer for less money? Some would laugh at not wanting to outbid KC, but there's nothing wrong with "we are comfortable giving you 36 mil for 3 years, but we also have other options so if you can get 45 somewhere else, you should take it".

Delivering on the "other options" part is critical here, of course. If we instead end up 19 starts from James Paxton and a string of bullpen games in July while Lugo is steady in KC, that's going to be bad.

 

[TimScribble]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1735295691881074862?s=46&t=7XazH1NKZP26a4WUZikbkQ

Red Sox representatives "have met or will soon meet with Yamamoto in California to make their pitch," according to The Globe. Sox are in on a ton of pitchers but are focused on the outcome of the Yamamoto sweepstakes first & foremost. Seattle rebuffed a Sox approach on starters.

 

[OCD SS]

I am also in the camp where I would like to see them acquire two solid, reliable starters rather than put all their chips into one excellent one, especially one without an MLB track record. They aren’t one player away from anything. They need quantity.

I think this is the more likely, but it’s not going to appease the “Sox MUST make a splash to generate excitement “ crowd. Normally I would expect a diversified approach that would spread risk around (this seems like a good approach to avoiding having a single injury sink your season), but after several last place finishes and ownership not getting the benefit of the doubt, we will see a bit more spin on who they do acquire. We all lived through Theo’s “price of milk” excuses, and I don’t envy the person who has to stand up and justify these signings, even if they are ultimately better baseball moves.

 

[johnnywayback]

If you don't think they get any of those 3, what do you see happening? After last year, then all the bluster from Kennedy and Werner ("full throttle"), and Breslow talking about trading prospects, and the space they have under the tax, it seems unfathomable that we are looking at say, Michael Wacha and James Paxton. You might see some empty seats on opening day if that's how things go.

I could easily see them signing Imanaga (18 AAV), Giolito (15 AAV), Teoscar Hernandez (15 AAV), and one of the big relievers like Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson (10 AAV) and then trading a couple of prospects in the 10-20 range for Brandon Drury.

Duran CF, Casas 1B, Story SS, Devers 3B, Hernandez RF, Yoshida DH, O'Neill LF, Drury 2B, Wong C. Bench is McGuire, Abreu, Reyes, Refsnyder.

Sale, Bello, Imanaga, Giolito, Crawford. Jansen, Martin, Hicks, Schreiber, Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta, Bernardino. Lots of depth at AAA: Winckowski (who could stay stretched out as an SP6), Campbell, Criswell, Kelly, etc.

That wouldn't be a championship favorite in 2024, but it would be a playoff contender with plenty of pitching depth, a potentially killer bullpen, a balanced lineup with improved defense, and lots of dry prospect powder: If you get to July and it feels like you're a top-flight starter away from competing for a World Series, you'll be able to make that trade.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1735295691881074862?s=46&t=7XazH1NKZP26a4WUZikbkQ

Red Sox representatives "have met or will soon meet with Yamamoto in California to make their pitch," according to The Globe. Sox are in on a ton of pitchers but are focused on the outcome of the Yamamoto sweepstakes first & foremost. Seattle rebuffed a Sox approach on starters.

Probably makes sense for Seattle to sit tight while the remaining top dogs are still on the board. Price goes up when YY/Monty/etc start to pick their destinations.

 

[TimScribble]

Agreed. Teams like the Brewers and Seattle are at an advantage to wait. Likewise with most free agent starters.

 

[simplicio]

Duran CF, Casas 1B, Story SS, Devers 3B, Hernandez RF, Yoshida DH, O'Neill LF, Drury 2B, Wong C. Bench is McGuire, Abreu, Reyes, Refsnyder.

Feels like that's putting a lot on Drury as both the primary 2B and the only real corner backup.

Probably makes sense for Seattle to sit tight while the remaining top dogs are still on the board. Price goes up when YY/Monty/etc start to pick their destinations.

Also if they're actually going to go for Snell that deal needs to happen first.

 

[johnnywayback]

Feels like that's putting a lot on Drury as both the primary 2B and the only real corner backup.

Maybe -- but Reyes can play 3B in a pinch and you always have Dalbec at AAA. Or maybe Dalbec makes the team over Refsnyder.

 

[TomRicardo]

If the Sox are out on Yamamato, they might as well pack it up and take it on the chin another year as is the punishment for hiring Bloom. Montgomery is not a good idea at seven years. You are just signing yourself back up for Sale / Story.

Edit - I don't get how ownership can't track they f*&%ed around. This is going to be a brutal set of years if they refuse to actually sign top line talent and sign B/C level talent at long contracts while throwing spaghetti at the wall. This is what perpetually bad teams do.

 

[simplicio]

How is Montgomery at all similar to Sale and Story?

 

[PedroisGod]

Feels like that's putting a lot on Drury as both the primary 2B and the only real corner backup.

I wouldn't hate bringing back Turner and trading for Drury. Turner could be the regular DH and infield depth at 3B, 1B, and 2B. In the OF you'd now have 4 guys for 3 spots, one of whom would benefit from DHing occasionally (Yoshida), so that might make it a bit awkward, but I'd peg it as being pretty likely that O'Neill will miss time at some point.

 

[simplicio]

I like that plan better than pulling Yoshida to DH, let's give him another season to see if his D can improve. It's not like Teoscar is a good fielder out there either.

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1735308231935758539?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

 

[simplicio]

Giolito? Please no.

I suppose as an upside you do get a free game ball with every monster seat purchase for his starts.

 

[TomRicardo]

How is Montgomery at all similar to Sale and Story?

A player you are about to give a contract well past their prime that does not have a chance to break 4 WAR more than once over the length of their contract, handcuffing you with salary obligation and a roster spot while trying to make the appearance of trying.

You are right Sale extension was a better idea at the time.

 

[grepal]

I can see Giolito being an absolute disaster in Fenway Park. Memories of Way Back Wasdin dancing like sugar plums in my head.

 

[BringBackMo]

I don't think Heyman has any better sense of who will wind up in which chair when the music stops than the rest of us do. He, like others in the scooplet game, is a collector of "nuggets" fed to him by parties who benefit from the release of that information. That's fine! That's often how news of all sorts is surfaced. But it doesn't mean that he's got any kind of developed sense of what's happening outside of that relatively narrow scope. When Heyman reports that X team has bid Y dollars for Z player, or that Z player has narrowed his search to three suitors, you can probably take that to the bank. But when he speculates where the eighth most attractive free agent starter will wind up signing a month from now, well, that's no different than the rest of us pulling guesses out of our ass.

 

[grepal]

It really has to be Yamamoto at this point. Stroman or Snell would not be bad. How can the Sox look at Giolito and tell us they are trying to win?