Offseason rumors

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1738696802499452967?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

I’ve thought about this early in the off-season when trying to configure a rotation. I feel like, it’s one of those things, if he had the exact same season in the exact same manner but with a different team, we’d be somewhat excited about the signing.

James Paxton threw 21 innings between 2020-2022. Came back with very strong stuff after major surgery. Looked fantastic, and hit an incredible wall put up a 5.84 ERA the last month of the season.

I’d welcome him back, albeit, behind more significant moves.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Regarding Kershaw. What makes anyone thing Kershaw would be interested in leaving LA for Boston. Texas is his home so maybe.

No chance he comes to Boston. None chance.

Agreed.

Though, regardless, I have literally zero interest whatsoever in Paxton, Kershaw, Flaherty (I know he’s off the table), Montas, or literally anyone else hurt enough, old enough, bad enough, or any combination thereof that would be willing to take a one year deal unless it’s a minor league contract.

This organization has had three SP seasons of throwing 160ip at even league average, and two of those were Nate Eovaldi (the other was Pivetta). Building a rotation of old, injured players that will take such deals is a recipe for failure.

The team would - again incredibly foolishly - be banking on 2 of them.

I have spent tons of time blaming the FO and not FSG for the decision to stop employing good and dependable pitchers based on the fact that FSG did just that for the ish 20 years before Bloom but not in the 4 years with him. If they go into this season with anything resembling Bello, Sale, Crawford, Pivetta and Paxton as a starting rotation I will (incredibly angrily) admit how wrong I was. A rotation like that or anything resembling that will culminate in a 75 win season at best.

The good news for those of us fans around the Boston area is that tickets will be about $5 on the secondary market from the first game after Marathon Monday - nice weather in June, then again from around Aug 15 - the last day of the season. So that’s even better than having a good baseball team, I guess…

 

[Seels]

if someone like Luzardo is actually available you give up any of Mayer / Teel / Anthony and don't think twice about it, unless you have some reason to believe any of these guys are perennial MVP candidates. I wouldn't give up two of them in the same deal (though, I'd really think about it for someone like Kirby), but those are the exact deals a team that has a complete vacuum of pitching talent does.

 

[chawson]

Paxton won’t be the major addition, but it feels very no brainer to me to sign him and trade a back-end starter for a 2B, like Pivetta for Polanco, or Houck or Crawford for Noelvi Marte.

 

[GPO Man]

if someone like Luzardo is actually available you give up any of Mayer / Teel / Anthony and don't think twice about it, unless you have some reason to believe any of these guys are perennial MVP candidates. I wouldn't give up two of them in the same deal (though, I'd really think about it for someone like Kirby), but those are the exact deals a team that has a complete vacuum of pitching talent does.

I don’t think I could part with Teel. He appears to be a true unicorn.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

if someone like Luzardo is actually available you give up any of Mayer / Teel / Anthony and don't think twice about it, unless you have some reason to believe any of these guys are perennial MVP candidates. I wouldn't give up two of them in the same deal (though, I'd really think about it for someone like Kirby), but those are the exact deals a team that has a complete vacuum of pitching talent does.

Listen I love Luzardo, but people need to pump the breaks a little. This isn’t 2016 Chris Sale. This is a good young pitcher entering his Arb years who could see his WAR/Salary benefit take a massive hit with any regression.

Speaking of Sale, streamer has him at 2.f7WAR next year.

They have Luzardo as 3.3fWAR. Just for some perspective.

 

[nvalvo]

SI had something about the Marlins trading BOTH Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo to Boston. Now this is something that would be an amazing get. Not sure why Miami would do this, but it’s interesting.

Now we’re talking. BTV thinks Cabrera and Luzardo for Mayer, Yorke, and Rafaela is in the ballpark.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Regarding Paxton, MLB trade throws out this fanatic stat which does give some perspective on his overall numbers….

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Now we’re talking. BTV thinks Cabrera and Luzardo for Mayer, Yorke, and Rafaela is in the ballpark.

I’d do this in a second

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yeah, the issue is that a bad 10 innings for Paxton was over 10% of his total innings for the year. He wasn’t ready to start the season, or end it. Will things be different this year, when he’s 35? If it’s a 1/$12M deal or something, than you could add him and basically go to camp with the staff we had last year minus Kluber and hope enough things go right and the team is competitive- and keep your powder dry for another year- I don’t think it’s a terrible idea but I think it’s a really tough sell.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I’d do this in a second

Jeez, I don’t know. It’s a lot to give up for one pitcher with massive control problems and another guy who has had one good year. Would have to be really confident in Bailey’s ability to fix Cabrera; or really down on the prospects; losing Mayer, Yorke, and Rafaela in one deal is pretty tough- that’s a lot of years of cheap up the middle talent you are giving up.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I’m starting to realize a lot of people have zero perspective on starting pitching, in general, across baseball.

Edward Cabrera isn’t an upgrade over a single projected Red Sox starter. He’s cheap and under control, but other than that he isn’t really an asset.

Kutter Crawford is better than him in basically ever single way.

 

[bosox1534]

I’m starting to realize a lot of people have zero perspective on stating pitching, in general, across baseball.

Edward Cabrera isn’t an upgrade over a single projected Red Sox starter. He’s cheap and under control, but other than that he isn’t really an asset.

Kutter Crawford is better than him in basically ever single way.

Like I said this thread seems to overvalue controllability over actual results.

 

[nvalvo]

I’m starting to realize a lot of people have zero perspective on stating pitching, in general, across baseball.

Edward Cabrera isn’t an upgrade over a single projected Red Sox starter. He’s cheap and under control, but other than that he isn’t really an asset.

Kutter Crawford is better than him in basically ever single way.

There’s an awful lot of red on that Savant page.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

There’s an awful lot of red on that Savant page.

View attachment 75517

Yea, throwing strikes kinda matters.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Like I said this thread seems to overvalue controllability over actual results.

The Sox need SP. These are 2 young SP, both with nice upside. I don’t think the Sox trade Rafaela, but if you want SP you gotta trade someone.

 

[VORP Speed]

but as stated, why would Miami do this, I dunno.

Pete Bendix took over the Marlins baseball ops, so everything is for sale if you’re willing to overpay.

 

[circus catch]

I have a concern, given that the Sox still have Sale and are talking to Paxton, that they are out on Montgomery. Three left handed starters? Maybe Paxton is a safety net if we don’t get Montgomery. We’ll see I guess.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Just want to clarify something here: The SI piece about the Marlins is poor rewrite of a story in The Athletic, where it suggests the Red Sox could be a trade fit fore one OR the other of the Marlins pitchers ... not both in the same deal
Here's the Athletic story
https://theathletic.com/5157967/2023/12/22/yoshinobu-yamamoto-red-sox-free-agency-questions/?source=emp_shared_article

LHP Jesus Luzardo or RHP Edward Cabrera
The Marlins’ pair of starters won’t become free agents until after 2026 and 2028, respectively, and would offer a prime top-of-the-rotation pairing alongside Bello. If the Red Sox are going to give up Mayer, Teel or Anthony, doing so for several years of a young pitcher would be the most prudent approach.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Like I said this thread seems to overvalue controllability over actual results.

As does the team. Go trade for Corbin Burnes and spend to extend him either now or next offseason.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Just want to clarify something here: The SI piece about the Marlins is poor rewrite of a story in The Athletic, where it suggests the Red Sox could be a trade fit fore one OR the other of the Marlins pitchers ... not both.
Here's the Athletic story
https://theathletic.com/5157967/2023/12/22/yoshinobu-yamamoto-red-sox-free-agency-questions/?source=emp_shared_article

Well, that is certainly worded differently.

 

[chawson]

if someone like Luzardo is actually available you give up any of Mayer / Teel / Anthony and don't think twice about it, unless you have some reason to believe any of these guys are perennial MVP candidates. I wouldn't give up two of them in the same deal (though, I'd really think about it for someone like Kirby), but those are the exact deals a team that has a complete vacuum of pitching talent does.

I don’t know, I’d be reluctant. FWIW, the underlying stats say Luzardo has even worse problems third time through the order than Houck.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I think a lot of that also stems from the reports that the Sox and Marlins had a deal of Justin Turner for E Cabrera back at last year’s deadline that feel through. That SHOULD have been a deal the Sox started adding short term pieces to get done last year (ie, Turner, Duvall, Paxton whatever) when Miami was in a playoff push.

Then you’d have another version of a Houck, Crawford, etc if for no other reason than to deal in this off-season.

I mean, I’d certainly want Cabrera over Paxton because I’d bet on the 25 yr old guy that always gets hurt over the 35 year old guy that always gets hurt, but he is very similar to Crawford or Houck. Probably has more upside than either, admittedly, but I think he would cost whatever we’d want for C/H and there are too many questions with all those guys to depend on too many of them and not so much better that I think I’d say he’s all that safer a bet.

If you can trade something totally redundant for him, sure, because I’d rather have redundancy in young MLB pitchers with upside vs LHH outfielders (so if Miami was dumb enough to deal him for something like Abreu and Céspedes, absolutely, but beyond that, not so much.)

Luzardo (or Garrett) are totally different stories.

@chawson, you really think Cincy would do Houck for Marte? A top 35ish prospect that slashed .280/.365/.455/.822 as a 21yr old in AAA before a .316/.366/.456/.822 line at 21 in the bigs? I mean, that is a line at 21 in the bigs that is comparable in age to what Mayer put up combined in A+ (.280/.371/.494/.865) at 19 and 20.

That would be like trading Mayer for Edward Cabrera (which I in no way advocate).

Why do you think Cincy would do that? Did Marte get injured or some thing that I (admittedly) don’t know about.

 

[ehaz]

Listen I love Luzardo, but people need to pump the breaks a little. This isn’t 2016 Chris Sale. This is a good young pitcher entering his Arb years who could see his WAR/Salary benefit take a massive hit with any regression.

Speaking of Sale, streamer has him at 2.f7WAR next year.

They have Luzardo as 3.3fWAR. Just for some perspective.

Yeah that’s with steamer projecting Sale to throw 150 innings. Not sure anyone is comfortable betting the over on that.

Anyways seems like steamer projections place just about any good starter in that WAR range because projecting innings and performance from pitchers year to year is a crapshoot and the error bars are so high. I’m not sure they are particularly meaningful. E.g., they also have Gerrit Cole at 3.6 and Max Fried at 3.5. We’re throwing darts at a wall but that’s the story with any pitching acquisition.

Agreed on Cabrera though. I would not trade a single valuable asset for him. I have no idea why people are infatuated with a guy who throws hard and walks 6 batters per nine. We already have an entire rotations worth of “good stuff, is he a reliever or is he a starter?” types. Short of some wild hope that Breslow can sprinkle magic pixie dust on his arm we’re likely sending out a key contributor or decent prospect for yet another guy who throws 3 to 4 innings per game that you don’t know what to do with.

 

[bosox1534]

I think a lot of that also stems from the reports that the Sox and Marlins had a deal of Justin Turner for E Cabrera back at last year’s deadline that feel through. That SHOULD have been a deal the Sox started adding short term pieces to get done last year (ie, Turner, Duvall, Paxton whatever) when Miami was in a playoff push.

Then you’d have another version of a Houck, Crawford, etc if for no other reason than to deal in this off-season.

I mean, I’d certainly want Cabrera over Paxton because I’d bet on the 25 yr old guy that always gets hurt over the 35 year old guy that always gets hurt, but he is very similar to Crawford or Houck. Probably has more upside than either, admittedly, but I think he would cost whatever we’d want for C/H and there are too many questions with all those guys to depend on too many of them and not so much better that I think I’d say he’s all that safer a bet.

If you can trade something totally redundant for him, sure, because I’d rather have redundancy in young MLB pitchers with upside vs LHH outfielders (so if Miami was dumb enough to deal him for something like Abreu and Céspedes, absolutely, but beyond that, not so much.)

Luzardo (or Garrett) are totally different stories.

@chawson, you really think Cincy would do Houck for Marte? A top 35ish prospect that slashed .280/.365/.455/.822 as a 21yr old in AAA before a .316/.366/.456/.822 line at 21 in the bigs? I mean, that is a line at 21 in the bigs that is comparable in age to what Mayer put up combined in A+ (.280/.371/.494/.865) at 19 and 20.

That would be like trading Mayer for Edward Cabrera (which I in no way advocate).

Why do you think Cincy would do that? Did Marte get injured or some thing that I (admittedly) don’t know about.

I remember seeing that reported Turner for Cabrera deal, and if that was true that alone could’ve been grounds for firing Bloom. 3 months of a DH for multiple years of an at worst #5 starter is crazy.

 

[chawson]

@chawson, you really think Cincy would do Houck for Marte? A top 35ish prospect that slashed .280/.365/.455/.822 as a 21yr old in AAA before a .316/.366/.456/.822 line at 21 in the bigs? I mean, that is a line at 21 in the bigs that is comparable in age to what Mayer put up combined in A+ (.280/.371/.494/.865) at 19 and 20.

That would be like trading Mayer for Edward Cabrera (which I in no way advocate).

Why do you think Cincy would do that? Did Marte get injured or some thing that I (admittedly) don’t know about.

I mean, who knows, but his stock has fallen since the trade and they do have a serious glut between 2B-SS-3B with McLain, Elly and Encarnacion-Strand, and they just signed Jeimer Candelario. Collier’s their future at 3B and Edwin Arroyo is probably their 2B in 2025. India, Barrera and Steer are kicking around in there too.

They need pitching, and could use a heavy GB% guy like Houck in that park. Maybe something like Houck and Winckowski for Marte and Lucas Sims could work.

 

[grimshaw]

Listen I love Luzardo, but people need to pump the breaks a little. This isn’t 2016 Chris Sale. This is a good young pitcher entering his Arb years who could see his WAR/Salary benefit take a massive hit with any regression.

Speaking of Sale, streamer has him at 2.f7WAR next year.

They have Luzardo as 3.3fWAR. Just for some perspective.

They also have Yamamoto at 3.4 and Gerritt Cole at 3.6. Steamer is very conservative with starters.

If you gave me a pick before the offseason between signing Yamamoto to a 10+ year contract or trading for a cost controlled #2, I'd be all in for the latter. I admittedly also followed Luzardo the past few seasons closely as he helped me win a fake baseball title so I unabashedly love him.

 

[ehaz]

I don’t know, I’d be reluctant. FWIW, the underlying stats say Luzardo has even worse problems third time through the order than Houck.

He’s a 26 year old with a 3.40 FIP over his last 50 starts and nearly 300 MLB innings. There is no one in the organization that is remotely close to that kind of production.

At some point you have to take a real shot at improving the rotation, no? Flawless 26 year old starters with three arb years and zero warts don’t get traded. With Luzardo at least you have someone young and on the rise that Breslow and Bailey can work with.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I mean, who knows, but his stock has fallen since the trade and they do have a serious glut between 2B-SS-3B with McLain, Elly and Encarnacion-Strand, and they just signed Jeimer Candelario. Collier’s their future at 3B and Edwin Arroyo is probably their 2B in 2025. India, Barrera and Steer are kicking around in there too.

They need pitching, and could use a heavy GB% guy like Houck in that park. Maybe something like Houck and Winckowski for Marte and Lucas Sims could work.

Maybe, I guess. But dealing a guy that is only 21 and put up that line because you’re banking on someone that just had a .749OPS in A+ to displace in a year seems like a horrible idea.

Also, Collier has to be what, 3 or 4 years away based on his struggles in A ball last year.

I mean, maybe they move Marte, like you said, what do we know. But if they do it for Tanner Houck (or similar), I’d be incredibly surprised.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Paxton won’t be the major addition, but it feels very no brainer to me to sign him and trade a back-end starter for a 2B, like Pivetta for Polanco, or Houck or Crawford for Noelvi Marte.

I definitely see this happening.

As does the team. Go trade for Corbin Burnes and spend to extend him either now or next offseason.

To go with the above, I'm one of many here who would love to see us trade for Burnes and Adames. Shoring up both the rotation AND 2B would be huge for us and seems so obvious.

Honestly, if we can trade for Luzardo AND Cabrera as some have mentioned above AND make a Burnes/Adames trade AND land someone like Teoscar Hernandez (or other RHH with power), I'm giving this offseason an A+

 

[InsideTheParker]

This isn’t a rumor, but with YY off the board, I wonder if Breslow’s Plan B is to go heavy on short-term guys to bridge to the Mayer-Roman-Teel era. It’d try some fans’ patience, but I think it’s defensible. I know that’s what Bloom was trying to do, by appearances at least, but maybe Craig and Bailey are better at it? Teoscar for three, Drury has a year left (or Tim Anderson on a pillow contract), Stroman for three, Giolito for one with an option… probably still facing long odds in the AL East, I might be talking myself out of this.

I find this combination of players less than adequate. In fact, I felt slightly nauseated while reading it.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

This isn’t a rumor, but with YY off the board, I wonder if Breslow’s Plan B is to go heavy on short-term guys to bridge to the Mayer-Roman-Teel era. It’d try some fans’ patience, but I think it’s defensible. I know that’s what Bloom was trying to do, by appearances at least, but maybe Craig and Bailey are better at it? Teoscar for three, Drury has a year left (or Tim Anderson on a pillow contract), Stroman for three, Giolito for one with an option… probably still facing long odds in the AL East, I might be talking myself out of this.

If that's the case, bring back Duvall, Turner and Paxton. Get a 2B (Drury or otherwise) and have the acquisition be a #1 starter on a longer term deal.

 

[loneredseat]

Honestly, if we can trade for Luzardo AND Cabrera as some have mentioned above AND make a Burnes/Adames trade AND land someone like Teoscar Hernandez (or other RHH with power), I'm giving this offseason an A+

For sure.
Another slightly different path that I like, that would require giving up less:
Add Yelich to the Burnes/ Adames trade.
Pass on Teoscar Hernandez.
Go after just one of Luzardo or Cabera and then sign Snell, Montgomery or Imanaga.
We miss out on the RH power of Escobar Hernandez but I think our line up is still balanced L-R. I've always thought "power" is a little overrated.
And depending on Luzardo or Cabera (based on what we would have to give up it wouldn't matter to me which one we got), we could hold onto our top prospects.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

This isn’t a rumor, but with YY off the board, I wonder if Breslow’s Plan B is to go heavy on short-term guys to bridge to the Mayer-Roman-Teel era. It’d try some fans’ patience, but I think it’s defensible. I know that’s what Bloom was trying to do, by appearances at least, but maybe Craig and Bailey are better at it? Teoscar for three, Drury has a year left (or Tim Anderson on a pillow contract), Stroman for three, Giolito for one with an option… probably still facing long odds in the AL East, I might be talking myself out of this.

Boston media would label CB "Junior Bloom" and engage in a giant sploogefest. The fans who are personally insulted that JH won't go toe-to-toe with LA would burn Fenway to the ground. Disappointing from a competitive poiint of view, but the entertainment value would be through the roof.

I’m starting to realize a lot of people have zero perspective on starting pitching, in general, across baseball.

Think about how much people were paying for fundamentally lousy cars during the pandemic. Free markets, invisible hands, etc., etc.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

For sure.
Another slightly different path that I like, that would require giving up less:
Add Yelich to the Burnes/ Adames trade.
Pass on Teoscar Hernandez.
Go after just one of Luzardo or Cabera and then sign Snell, Montgomery or Imanaga.
We miss out on the RH power of Escobar Hernandez but I think our line up is still balanced L-R. I've always thought "power" is a little overrated.
And depending on Luzardo or Cabera (based on what we would have to give up it wouldn't matter to me which one we got), we could hold onto our top prospects.

all perfectly acceptable to me, but what do I know?

 

[simplicio]

I definitely see this happening.


To go with the above, I'm one of many here who would love to see us trade for Burnes and Adames. Shoring up both the rotation AND 2B would be huge for us and seems so obvious.

Honestly, if we can trade for Luzardo AND Cabrera as some have mentioned above AND make a Burnes/Adames trade AND land someone like Teoscar Hernandez (or other RHH with power), I'm giving this offseason an A+

I'll take Burnes with a guaranteed extension, but I'm not interested in the rest at what they'll likely cost. Luzardo seems like a grass is greener target; we already have multiple guys in house that look great for 4 innings, that's not an area of need. Cabrera can't find the plate with a map. Adames is obviously great defensively, but I feel like he's going to cost more than Drury, and doesn't come with Drury's ability to cover the corners, which is something we're still looking for.

 

[catomatic]

I'll take Burnes with a guaranteed extension, but I'm not interested in the rest at what they'll likely cost. Luzardo seems like a grass is greener target; we already have multiple guys in house that look great for 4 innings, that's not an area of need. Cabrera can't find the plate with a map. Adames is obviously great defensively, but I feel like he's going to cost more than Drury, and doesn't come with Drury's ability to cover the corners, which is something we're still looking for.

I'm seeing multiple mentions of a Burnes acquisition with nary a mention of the fact that he's a Boras client who, within the past 10 days, has expressed every intention of going to free agency. It would seem that extending him immediately upon acquiring him is just not an option. If the Brewers were calibrating their demands with this reality factored in, then I suspect there would be more smoke around the Burnes to Boston idea.

I quite reflexively recoil at the association of Boras with any desirable FA. There will be no consideration of other values with a Boras client. Let him and Heyman do their max-extractive thing but no one could be blamed for staying away from his stable of talent. I'm fine with the serious YY suitors playing for those chips as long as our ticket prices are indexed to our recalibrated aspirations as an organization. (Sad Trombone).

 

[simplicio]

To be clear, I don't think a Burnes extension is anywhere close to likely either (and I'm not sure I've seen anyone arguing that it is), just saying that if Boras hypothetically told Breslow it was on the table, I'd be interested.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I'm seeing multiple mentions of a Burnes acquisition with nary a mention of the fact that he's a Boras client who, within the past 10 days, has expressed every intention of going to free agency. It would seem that extending him immediately upon acquiring him is just not an option. If the Brewers were calibrating their demands with this reality factored in, then I suspect there would be more smoke around the Burnes to Boston idea.

I quite reflexively recoil at the association of Boras with any desirable FA. There will be no consideration of other values with a Boras client. Let him and Heyman do their max-extractive thing but no one could be blamed for staying away from his stable of talent. I'm fine with the serious YY suitors playing for those chips as long as our ticket prices are indexed to our recalibrated aspirations as an organization. (Sad Trombone).

"with nary a mention of the fact that he's a Boras client" I think it is worth noting that Boras does what his clients want him to do. And, so, while many players may pick him as an agent because they want to maximize their free agent contract, some of his clients sign extensions early. I recently read an article citing Carlos Gonzalez, Jered Weaver, Carlos Gomez, Elvis Andrus, Stephen Strasburg, Jose Altuve and Xander (the earlier contract) as examples of players working with Boras who did not go for testing free agency.

And, I did see Burnes mention the allure of becoming a free agent. And he may want to live in a particular part of the country. But I still think it would be worth while to test those waters and see if there might be mutual interest in a post-trade contract extension.

 

[moondog80]

This isn’t a rumor, but with YY off the board, I wonder if Breslow’s Plan B is to go heavy on short-term guys to bridge to the Mayer-Roman-Teel era. It’d try some fans’ patience, but I think it’s defensible. I know that’s what Bloom was trying to do, by appearances at least, but maybe Craig and Bailey are better at it? Teoscar for three, Drury has a year left (or Tim Anderson on a pillow contract), Stroman for three, Giolito for one with an option… probably still facing long odds in the AL East, I might be talking myself out of this.

I think this is both the most sensible and most likely plan of attack.

 

[catomatic]

"with nary a mention of the fact that he's a Boras client" I think it is worth noting that Boras does what his clients want him to do. And, so, while many players may pick him as an agent because they want to maximize their free agent contract, some of his clients sign extensions early. I recently read an article citing Carlos Gonzalez, Jered Weaver, Carlos Gomez, Elvis Andrus, Stephen Strasburg, Jose Altuve and Xander (the earlier contract) as examples of players working with Boras who did not go for testing free agency.

And, I did see Burnes mention the allure of becoming a free agent. And he may want to live in a particular part of the country. But I still think it would be worth while to test those waters and see if there might be mutual interest in a post-trade contract extension.

In a speculative world, I'd agree with kicking the tires. I listened to the actual interview with Burnes though, and came away thinking there would be no chance of a pre-FA extension.

I'd love to see the percentages on how many Boras clients sign deals before their FA window versus how many go for top dollar. It's always seemed to me that's why players signed on with him, to have him play that game on their open-market behalf. Notwithstanding your seven counter-examples, I'd wager the vast majority become products in the open-air Boras Bazaar.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I’m sure Burnes would sign an extension; but it seems like it would have to be some kind of market setting deal, and not something likely to represent great value for the Sox, so kind of difficult to imagine something happening here.

 

[chrisfont9]

I think this is both the most sensible and most likely plan of attack.

I'm always leaning this way myself (super important, I know). But I also don't think it would take as much to transform the rotation to an acceptable one. The same people, plus one reliable, high-end guy and more like a league-average level of adversity, gets it done, and shouldn't cost us any of the top three future foundational guys -- who might be up by year's end.

 

[LogansDad]

I'm always leaning this way myself (super important, I know). But I also don't think it would take as much to transform the rotation to an acceptable one. The same people, plus one reliable, high-end guy and more like a league-average level of adversity, gets it done, and shouldn't cost us any of the top three future foundational guys -- who might be up by year's end.

I really think a 2B with range and Rafaela in CF to play with Story would upgrade the current rotation significantly, and would be absolutely huge for Bello. Even when the team wasn't making errors last year, they simply weren't making plays that 80% of the other teams in MLB make. Even if it's just an extra out by a "non-play" every two or three innings, that adds up over the course of a game/season.

You also hope that Casas shows some improvement as well.

And this is also why I have no interest in bring Duvall back, he was not a good centerfielder (and his OPS was sustained by an unlikely to be repeated by a 36 year old 85th percentile barrel rating).

I would really love Adames, even if he comes without Burnes. He really solves multiple 2024 problems for this team, and probably wouldn't cost too much in prospects, doesn't block anybody past 2024, and would likely be worth dropping a QO for him to decline in order to recoup some of the prospect loss.

And if you really think Rafaela's bat is so bad that his defense isn't ready to carry it, kick the tires on Kiermaier (puke). I don't think Yoshida is as bad as Statcast wants to say, but he definitely has limited range, and a strong CF would go a long way towards mitigating that.

A defense of:

Yoshida - Kiermaier - O'Neill (Duran/Refsnyder, assuming Rafaela goes to AAA in this scenario)

Devers - Story - Adames - Casas (Reyes/?Dalbec?)

That would be a huge improvement, and may be enough defense to help guys like Bello/Crawford/Houck reach that next level of pitching that can sustain a winning team, while still providing plenty of offense.

 

[simplicio]

I would really love Adames, even if he comes without Burnes. He really solves multiple 2024 problems for this team, and probably wouldn't cost too much in prospects, doesn't block anybody past 2024, and would likely be worth dropping a QO for him to decline in order to recoup some of the prospect loss.

I think you're fooling yourself a bit here. A guy worth extending a QO to is 100% going to cost you dearly in prospects. That's why I remain more interested in Drury.

 

[LogansDad]

I think you're fooling yourself a bit here. A guy worth extending a QO to is 100% going to cost you dearly in prospects. That's why I remain more interested in Drury.

Yeah, I get that, but I think it allows you to stay away from moving the Anthony/Mayer/Teel tier of prospects, and may not require sending one of the few pitchers in the system in return.

A lot depends on how much Milwaukee "needs" to move him. I have seen talk of him being attached to Burnes in ways that insinuate he may be a semi-salary dump. Looking into it deeper, though, it doesn't really look like they have salary issues, Spotrac has them at a $93M projected payroll after arbitration estimates. So I am probably just dreaming and can be ignored in any case.

 

[geoflin]

It’s also why I hope they are very aggressive with Imanaga. They need good starters this year, next year, and the year after that and that and etc.

I'm also in favor of making a strong effort to sign Imanaga. But I worry about the fact that most of us have watched both Montgomery and Snell for years and have seen their warts numerous times, resulting in many of us being wary of signing either to a high-priced, long-term contract. Most of us have seen Imanaga pitch maybe once, in the WBC finals. We haven't seen his warts in the same way we've seen those of Montgomery and Snell. So I worry that Imanaga could easily not be worth the cheaper, shorter contract he's likely to get which would mean he's worth not much at all. On the other hand he might turn out to be much more of a bargain than either of the other two and as things stand today that's a chance I'd be willing to take.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I'm also in favor of making a strong effort to sign Imanaga. But I worry about the fact that most of us have watched both Montgomery and Snell for years and have seen their warts numerous times, resulting in many of us being wary of signing either to a high-priced, long-term contract. Most of us have seen Imanaga pitch maybe once, in the WBC finals. We haven't seen his warts in the same way we've seen those of Montgomery and Snell. So I worry that Imanaga could easily not be worth the cheaper, shorter contract he's likely to get which would mean he's worth no much at all. On the other hand he might turn out to be much more of a bargain than either of the other two and as things stand today that's a chance I'd be willing to take.

It comes down to the evaluation by Breslow, Bailey and the dev team. If they want him I want him. I’ve been vocal for a while now that it seems like he makes the most sense based on their comments. We will see.

The stuff is there, pitch sequencing and decision making look like real issues. Fixable, but real.

 

[OCD SS]

I think the question is whether Imanaga is worth a Masa type splash; do they overpay to set the market (perhaps based on his metrics and stuff that Breslow likes)?

 

[YTF]

I think the question is whether Imanaga is worth a Masa type splash; do they overpay to set the market (perhaps based on his metrics and stuff that Breslow likes)?

I think this really has to be the key component to this. All teams have a Breslow counterpart, but if Breslow is the new wave pitching guru that he's said to be, the best or one of the best at what he does, then he might have a good idea if an overpay will be worth landing Imanaga.