Offseason rumors

[Sad Sam Jones]

Cleveland is facing a dilemma with Bieber. I really don't think they'll trade him this winter, because it's not likely anyone will be offering what a healthy Bieber is worth in a trade package, and while his last start was great, there's no way two starts is enough for anyone to feel confident about his health after he missed 2½ months with an elbow strain. Although he'd have less than a half season of team control left, he'll be worth more if he has a healthy 2024 season up to the trade deadline... but then there's no reason that Cleveland in the AL Central with a healthy Bieber wouldn't be in position to make the playoffs, and how do you trade Bieber away in that scenario?

I like Bieber, but he's always taken a business approach to contracts and bet on himself... nothing wrong with that, but someone other than Cleveland will offer him more money by next winter, so keeping him until he hits free agency doesn't really make sense either.

Side note: The Dodgers were trying to get Cleveland to take Verdugo as the centerpiece of a Lindor trade for a long time. Thankfully, Antonetti held firm with that refusal.

 

[JM3]

I don't have much interest in doing most of these things.

No interest in Bieber. He seems to be in the process of slowly falling off a cliff. Burnes might be interesting, though.

Don't have a lot of interest in clearing up the potential future logjam right now, though.

I made this post June 23rd. Bieber pitched later that day, & then 3 more starts before going on the IL for 2.5 months. I guess that explains the cliff thing.

 

[DadOfFenway]

Not been elite the last couple but tempting....

 

[catomatic]

Not been elite the last couple but tempting....

View attachment 72154

Take a casual scroll up to post 89, my dude. All good but mentioned a few times, already.
For the purpose of adding more value to this here post, I'd be very much in favor of acquiring Burnes at the expense of Duran and Yorke. Duran appears not to have the fielding instincts or acumen that will represent an upgrade to the '23 edition's execrable defense. Opinions on Yorke's hit tool seem to vacillate between bust and Bagwellian. Burnes, on the other hand, is a known quantity and a quantity this team desperately needs.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Take a casual scroll up to post 89, my dude. All good but mentioned a few times, already.
For the purpose of adding more value to this here post, I'd be very much in favor of acquiring Burnes at the expense of Duran and Yorke. Duran appears not to have the fielding instincts or acumen that will represent an upgrade to the '23 edition's execrable defense. Opinions on Yorke's hit tool seem to vacillate between bust and Bagwellian. Burnes, on the other hand, is a known quantity and a quantity this team desperately needs.

But he's on a one year contract. I love him and want him on the Sox, but it can't be for one year.

 

[YTF]

But he's on a one year contract. I love him and want him on the Sox, but it can't be for one year.

Yeah, arb. eligible for next season, FA in '25. Perhaps the Sox can orchestrate an extend, sign and trade deal with Milwaukee.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Yeah, arb. eligible for next season, FA in '25. Perhaps the Sox can orchestrate an extend, sign and trade deal with Milwaukee.

I've said it before and I'll say it again---Yamamoto and Burnes with an extension is a best case offseason for me.

 

[YTF]

I've said it before and I'll say it again---Yamamoto and Burnes with an extension is a best case offseason for me.

IMO it would be ideal if they can nail Burnes down first so part of the equation is filled prior to the Yamamoto sweepstakes. Having Burnes in place may also demonstrate to Yamamoto that the Sox are serious about building a winning staff. Yamamoto, Burnes, Bello, as the top 3 with Sale, Crawford, Houck and Pivetta looking to round things out is a damn sight better than what they started this past season with.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yamamoto and Burnes long term sound great- if the org is suddenly ok with committing $400M or so on two pitchers, than they seem like reasonable players to bet on.

 

[nvalvo]

Yamamoto and Burnes long term sound great- if the org is suddenly ok with committing $400M or so on two pitchers, than they seem like reasonable players to bet on.

To be fair, Price and Sale weren’t a million miles from $400m in 2019. So it wouldn’t be that sudden.

 

[YTF]

Yamamoto and Burnes long term sound great- if the org is suddenly ok with committing $400M or so on two pitchers, than they seem like reasonable players to bet on.

I wonder if Burnes forgoing the final year of arb to take something in the neighborhood of 4/$100-$110 would be seen as reasonable? I'm sure his agent would push for something longer term, but it's good short money for the player and he would be FA eligible again at 33 years old.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

To be fair, Price and Sale weren’t a million miles from $400m in 2019. So it wouldn’t be that sudden.

Yeah, I look at it as--if they can lock down two potential top of rotation starters for the foreseeable future at market rates, I don't think they'd worry about the total outlay as opposed to how it fits with the annual budget.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I wonder if forgoing the final year of arb to take something in the neighborhood of 4/$100-$110 would be seen as reasonable? I'm sure his agent would push for something longer term, but it's good short money for the player and he would be FA eligible again at 33 years old.

What pitcher wants to be a free agent at 33, though? I would think he’d be looking at a Rodon type deal, 6-7 years probably. Seems better to lock in those 33-36 age years when you have some leverage. Hard to imagine him jumping on a 4 year deal a year before free agency. But you never know…every player is different, I don’t know much about Burnes, but as a career Brewer, from CA, doesn’t seem likely that he’d have any real affinity towards the Sox.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I wonder if Burnes forgoing the final year of arb to take something in the neighborhood of 4/$100-$110 would be seen as reasonable? I'm sure his agent would push for something longer term, but it's good short money for the player and he would be FA eligible again at 33 years old.

I don't know, if he'd really sign for that, Milwaukee might have already signed him to it. I can't believe he'd sign anything less than 6 years.

 

[YTF]

What pitcher wants to be a free agent at 33, though? I would think he’d be looking at a Rodon type deal, 6-7 years probably. Seems better to lock in those 33-36 age years when you have some leverage. Hard to imagine him jumping on a 4 year deal a year before free agency. But you never know…every player is different, I don’t know much about Burnes, but as a career Brewer, from CA, doesn’t seem likely that he’d have any real affinity towards the Sox.

I don't know, if he'd really sign for that, Milwaukee might have already signed him to it. I can't believe he'd sign anything less than 6 years.

Asking because I have no idea, what might he reasonably expect in arbitration for next season?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Asking because I have no idea, what might he reasonably expect in arbitration for next season?

He made 6.5M in '22 and 10M this season. I'm not really sure, but maybe somewhere around 13-14M?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

MLB TR predicts $15.1M

 

[opes]

I think whoever signs Othani also gets Yamamoto signed. He's going to go wherever Ohtani goes.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I think whoever signs Othani also gets Yamamoto signed. He's going to go wherever Ohtani goes.

Do they even like each other?

 

[absintheofmalaise]

I think whoever signs Othani also gets Yamamoto signed. He's going to go wherever Ohtani goes.

And you know this how?

 

[opes]

Sorry, I don't know. It's just a feeling.

 

[snowmanny]

Well Yoshida and Yamamoto are “close.”

“We’re close to each other," Yoshida told the Boston Herald's Mac Cerullo. "We’ve played (together) for a long time."
Yoshida noted that they still keep in touch and have a good relationship.

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/red-soxs-masataka-yoshida-close-with-top-free-agent-primed-for-recruiting-pitch-scott7

So my based on nothing calculation is that this increases the odds of Boston landing the pitcher by somewhere in the 0% range.

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

I think whoever signs Othani also gets Yamamoto signed. He's going to go wherever Ohtani goes.

What is your rationale? Is there any public information that supports this idea?

EDIT: you already replied to a similar question above, sorry. Should be careful with unsupported speculation like this as in the past it's been pretty common for people to make racist assumptions about foreign players wanting to play with other players of the same nationality. I'm not saying you were being racist, but just want you to be aware that it might be perceived that way by others and not without reason.

 

[InstaFace]

The Ohtani connection with New Balance sounds a lot like when people say “His wife is from New Hampshire” or “He just bought a house in Martha’s Vineyard“. Does this stuff ever really move the needle? Ohtani is a global superstar. If he tells New Balance to move their headquarters to Newark airport so he can be a Met, they will do it.

It was sobering for me to learn - I think from someone here during the WBC - that there are 20 Japanese journalists whose sole job it is to just be on the Ohtani beat. Twenty of them. Paid just to write about it every time he farts in public.

We are just not accustomed anymore to a baseball player being that level of famous. Our expectations for the level of influence they have on marketing are set to, at most, Derek Jeter levels - not 90s Michael Jordan levels.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

I think whoever signs Othani also gets Yamamoto signed. He's going to go wherever Ohtani goes.

They had never met before this year's WBC. Yamamoto was a rookie during Ohtani's last season here and faced him in one game. Who knows, maybe winning the WBC was a bonding experience that made them want to play together more, but Yoshida -- who was teammates with Yamamoto here -- was on that team too, and as @snowmanny pointed out, they're still in regular contact. To say nothing of the fact that you're probably talking about at least $600 million in contract commitments to sign both.

Admittedly none of that means the Sox/Giants/Dodgers/Mets/Yankees et al won't do it, but suffice it to say that I don't share your feeling.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

They had never met before this year's WBC. Yamamoto was a rookie during Ohtani's last season here and faced him in one game. Who knows, maybe winning the WBC was a bonding experience that made them want to play together more, but Yoshida -- who was teammates with Yamamoto here -- was on that team too, and as @snowmanny pointed out, they're still in regular contact. To say nothing of the fact that you're probably talking about at least $600 million in contract commitments to sign both.

Admittedly none of that means the Sox/Giants/Dodgers/Mets/Yankees et al won't do it, but suffice it to say that I don't share your feeling.

Do you think that his relationship with Yoshida is a tie-breaker? Maybe a little more than that?

 

[Tokyo Sox]

Do you think that his relationship with Yoshida is a tie-breaker? Maybe a little more than that?

I posted this last December in the Yoshida thread:

By the way, maybe better for a Red Sox rumors or a wild speculation thread, but if anyone is inclined to give Bloom credit for playing 4D chess, I hope there's some chance this signing makes it easier to get Yoshida's Orix Buffaloes teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto if (when) he makes the move at this time next year. YY is better and younger than Senga and will be the most sought after Japanese player since Ohtani.

I'm obviously hopeful Yoshida makes a successful transition. But I'm *really* hopeful it helps us get Yamamoto too.

...but to answer your question I really have no idea, just wishful thinking. All else equal I think yes, it probably is a tie breaker, but unlikely to get us a discount or anything like that.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I posted this last December in the Yoshida thread:


...but to answer your question I really have no idea, just wishful thinking. All else equal I think yes, it probably is a tie breaker, but unlikely to get us a discount or anything like that.

Thanks. I'm going to hold out hope that Masa is a great salesman.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Honestly, I'm kind of curious how Yoshida descibes his Boston experience to his friends.

 

[YTF]

Honestly, I'm kind of curious how Yoshida descibes his Boston experience to his friends.

Yeah, I've kinda wondered the same thing. The fan response to him at SoSH has been pretty harsh at times and we all know what a meat grinder the local media can be. I'm guessing/hoping that his experience has been more positive with the team, among the majority of the fan base and generally speaking throughout New England.

 

[chrisfont9]

I'm sure there is tons of info available to these guys about what kind of place it is to play when they are good. Masa will be able to tell him what it's like to live in Boston, and to play there he can add "it sucks when you are bad," but if the kid is driven to win he might see that as a positive.

 

[rodderick]

Yeah, I've kinda wondered the same thing. The fan response to him at SoSH has been pretty harsh at times and we all know what a meat grinder the local media can be. I'm guessing/hoping that his experience has been more positive with the team, among the majority of the fan base and generally speaking throughout New England.

I honestly think fan response to him/overall perception has been much, much better than the season he ended up having.

 

[Harry Hooper]

I honestly think fan response to him/overall perception has been much, much better than the season he ended up having.

It's certainly true that his struggles came largely after the bulk of the fandom stopped paying attention.

 

[JM3]

Feels like the Red Sox should invite less leakers & more CBOs & GMs to their planning meetings.

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1711006597575508233

Tyler Milliken
@tylermilliken_
.
@Sean_McAdam
on the rumblings connecting Shohei Ohtani to the Red Sox:

“According to a source, at a preliminary planning meeting for the Red Sox offseason, held last month, Ohtani was not at all a focus.

Meanwhile, another source noted that principal owner John Henry remains philosophically skittish over the prospect of the kind of lengthy mega-deals (that it would take to land Ohtani.”

McAdam framed it as a “real longshot” at this point.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/10/some-things-i-think-i-think-on-ohtani-chances-living-in-the-past-and-more-mcadam.html

 

[moondog80]

Feels like the Red Sox should invite less leakers & more CBOs & GMs to their planning meetings.

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1711006597575508233



https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/10/some-things-i-think-i-think-on-ohtani-chances-living-in-the-past-and-more-mcadam.html

Yeah I don't see how any of this has been helpful at all.

If they have a big offseason, people are going to be excited whether you've foreshadowed it or not.

If they don't have a big offseason and you have foreshadowed it, it will be like Bloom talking about "multiple top line starters" and delivering one Corey Kluber.

So just STFU and go about your business. And be thankful the Pats are taking the heat off you.

 

[lexrageorge]

Every team that misses the playoffs has plenty of leakers to the media right now. It's that time of year.

 

[moondog80]

Every team that misses the playoffs has plenty of leakers to the media right now. It's that time of year.

Yeah, I get it. It's not the end of the world. Just odd for a team with no CBO or GM to be making so many comments on how roster construction will proceed.

 

[mr_smith02]

Yeah, I get it. It's not the end of the world. Just odd for a team with no CBO or GM to be making so many comments on how roster construction will proceed.

I think it shows that whoever comes in will have about as much autonomy as Bloom did.

 

[soxhop411]

I think it shows that whoever comes in will have about as much autonomy as Bloom did.

Or that some work will already be done. And the new PBO wont be starting off from behind or square one.

 

[mr_smith02]

Or that some work will already be done. And the new PBO wont be starting off from behind or square one.

Just feels like there are a lot of cooks in the front office kitchen. Not sure if that's a good or bad thing...they have won four WS titles since 2004.

 

[moondog80]

Or that some work will already be done. And the new PBO wont be starting off from behind or square one.

Or they could just hire the new CBO before the off-season begins. World Series doesn’t even start until 3 weeks from yesterday. Plenty of time. And I guarantee the next CBO is currently aware of the job opening and their potential candidacy, and thinking about the moves he/she would make. There shouldn’t be much of a learning curve.

 

[JM3]

Here's a suggestion from Jim Bowden in the Athletic:

A potential Red Sox package could start with Alex Verdugo, who would immediately become the Padres’ starting left fielder,” Bowden noted. “Add in starting pitcher Tanner Houck (who would go right into the Padres’ rotation) and a couple of good prospects such as outfielder Miguel Bleis and right-hander Luis Perales.

He suggested 5 different teams who might be interested in Soto. Personally I have no interest in doing this but that's probably just me.

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/10/17/juan-soto-trade-rumors-red-sox-padres-alex-verdugo/

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1714317314861015527

 

[LogansDad]

I love you, but linking Jim Bowden should be a bannable offense.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

He suggested 5 different teams who might be interested in Soto. Personally I have no interest in doing this but that's probably just me.

It's not just you

 

[JM3]

I love you, but linking Jim Bowden should be a bannable offense.

Everyone has really been slacking on the player related "rumors". Had to mix things up a bit from the CBO "rumors".

 

[InsideTheParker]

Yeah, I've kinda wondered the same thing. The fan response to him at SoSH has been pretty harsh at times and we all know what a meat grinder the local media can be. I'm guessing/hoping that his experience has been more positive with the team, among the majority of the fan base and generally speaking throughout New England.

As for Yoshida, see his social media post at the end of the thread bearing his name. He claims to love Boston and is grateful to its fans. It would be wonderful if he could persuade Yamamoto that we're all right, Sosh haters notwithstanding.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

He suggested 5 different teams who might be interested in Soto. Personally I have no interest in doing this but that's probably just me.

I agree I wouldn't do it - certainly not for just one year of a player (even one that is as much of a beast as Soto). Extended Soto is a different matter, but for one season it's not worth it.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Setting aside if the Sox should/would be interested in Soto, either the one year or extended version of him, would that package even be attractive the the Padres? Maybe if Bleis was healthy but I would think the Padres would covet a centerpiece of any trade who is closer to the majors and not coming off shoulder surgery.

 

[PedroisGod]

If Soto could be had without including Mayer or Anthony, I'd take Soto with or without an extension. Worst case, you get a year of one of the best hitters in baseball and get a pick if he leaves as a FA. I'm skeptical that the Sox will be in on Soto though, as pitching needs to be the main priority.

 

[nighthob]

Setting aside if the Sox should/would be interested in Soto, either the one year or extended version of him, would that package even be attractive the the Padres? Maybe if Bleis was healthy but I would think the Padres would covet a centerpiece of any trade who is closer to the majors and not coming off shoulder surgery.

Bleis's injury was to the left shoulder, so it's not really a big deal except that it sets back the development curve a little. I do think that something built around Verdugo and Bleis is reasonable for a year of Soto. I wouldn't include Perales or Monegro, but I might be willing to add Gonzalez to that. From the Padres standpoint Verdugo is a decent defensive player and average offensive one that should be reasonable to sign and forget about (or use as a trade chit with a small market team). Bleis is the definition of high variance prospect with huge upside. I wouldn't include Houk, though. Even though he's a 4/5 guy, Boston needs those.

If Soto could be had without including Mayer or Anthony, I'd take Soto with or without an extension. Worst case, you get a year of one of the best hitters in baseball and get a pick if he leaves as a FA. I'm skeptical that the Sox will be in on Soto though, as pitching needs to be the main priority.

Pitching carries an exorbitant trade cost, I'd much rather that they focus on Yamamoto and possibly Shota Imanaga (they've been scouting him, so he's on their radar) to shore up the rotation.