Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
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Young athletes are really in social media misformation era now.
Williams is beloved by his teammates, coaches, and other USC athletes. He's been very supportive of the women's teams. He's used his NIL money to build his anti-bullying charity.
From a Washington Post profile
The worst thing about him that's actually true, and not Florio bullshit, was that he missed a few press conferences after loses.
Wonder what would happen to Justin Fields in the scenario where Chicago decides to make a change. Do they attempt to convert him to RB/WR, does he allow/refuse the change, how much value does he have as a trade chip?
I don’t know enough about his skill-set (or other team’s opinion of him) to know if he has a definite future at QB. He’s quite the playmaker and it feels reductionist to say his future is a better version of Michael Robinson (not to discount Robinson’s athleticism)
Reports are that Fields will probably fetch around a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
That’s my thought
That’s pretty good value for both sides (though a high-2nd or low-3rd changes the equation)
How much does the support system around him matter (in terms of coaching)? That’s the one issue I would have trading for him. Obviously if he’s mostly a finished product it matters much less. I’m not a Pats fan, though I tend to root/appreciate/pay attention to them due to association with this board, and this board is all over the place with thought on QB-talent vs coaching re: Pats (though that could obviously change with some staffing changes)
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Yeah, I wouldn't HATE it, but rather go young. Plus the decision might be made for them during free agency. If the Pats get a FA WR or 2, then maybe MHJ isn't as needed.
Maybe, but maybe not after the last 2 seasons. Resetting the QB pay allows money to go elsewhere.
I don't love it honestly, high 2nd is a lot of value for 2 years of Fields who is very much a work in progress, I'd do a 3rd and maybe something future too, that sets you up to take a WR or OT in the 1st and 2nd, and maybe trade down from 3 to a team that wants Daniels.
Question then would be.... do you like Fields/Harrison/Guyton, or trade down where you could go with one of Alt/Nabers/Fashanu/Odunze and then TWO of Morgan/Guyton/Franklin/Mitchell etc.
I think I'd rather draft a top QB, but that's the only situation I consider Fields, is if I can get him for a 3rd then pick up an extra 2nd (plus more) to move down a bit and come out of the draft having picked up 1 of the top WR/OT and then 2 of the late 1st early 2nd wave of tackles and WRs. (I could be talked into a move down for a future 1st, but that's not an ideal fit with a Fields addition).
Given you’ll have to pay Fields 25M+ a year moving forward and he’s shown nothing to demonstrate that’s a good idea, I don’t see how Fields for a 2 and Harrison is better than Maye/Daniels and a WR atop round 2 + a lot more money to spend for OT, WR, TE etc
Fields’ looming 5th year option and the need to lock him up to a new deal is a massive problem for any team trading for him.
I don’t think the Pats would have to trade their second for Fields. The Pats 2nd is practically as good as a late first. My guess is a 3rd and maybe something conditional. Fields and MHJ and drafting an OT in the second, another WR or TE in the 4th and the team is watchable in game #1.
This.
Fields play wasn't good this year even when the Bears were winning games down the stretch.
I also think it's almost never a good idea to take a wide receiver with a top 3 pick. Maybe if you're a Cincinnati or Philly in 2021 and think your offense is one playmaker away.
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Thanks for all the comments on Fields. I find him intriguing, but it sounds the kind of move most teams try to avoid.
I agree. Toss in that he has missed 11 of 51 games, and his 60% completion rate, I just don't see him worth $25M+ over the long term.
I'd rather a QB at 3, build out the team using FA resources and the draft and move forward.
I think so, but mostly because the acquiring team is gonna have to pay him without really having as much time as the Bears have, and if they are moving on...
That said, I think the Bears should hold him, draft MHJ and Alt and roll.
Fields makes the most sense for a team drafting in the bottom third of the 1st round, like Pittsburgh. Tampa maybe if Mayfield leaves. Teams that will miss out on the premium QB prospects and can throw a late 2nd or 3rd+conditional 2025 pick.
If I’m Chicago, I’d entertain trading down to 3 or somewhere within the top 8 if you can get a #1 next year and a haul
Odunze (or Harrison at 3) + Fashanu/Alt + a top pick next year as a hedge against Fields seems like the best of all worlds
As good as Harrison is and projects to be, he’s going to be wasted without a good QB
I'll be surprised if Fields gets anything more than a 4th that may become a 3rd based on certain playing time criteria, etc. He's more valuable to the Bears, having learned and grown comfortable in their system, than he is to other teams.
Hard disagree on this because of the 5th year option
Scenario A: keep Fields and draft Williams. You now have a disgruntled young QB on an expiring contract who you will almost certainly not want to give a 5th year option to and you lose him for nothing (maybe you get a comp pick in 2026). Unknown but unlikely he’s a great mentor for his replacement
Scenario B: keep Fields and don’t draft a QB, exercise his 5th year option. If Fields is great, and takes a major leap forward, you’re golden. He would be under contract for an affordable 24M in 2025. If he sucks in 2024, you’re going to have to eat a bunch of money and go find a new QB who will most likely be a worse prospect than Williams
Scenario C: keep Fields, don’t draft a QB, don’t exercise his 5th year option. If he’s good, you’re stuck with the Daniel Jones problem. Do you pay him 35-40M a year on one “good” year? If he sucks, you’re free of the money, but received no value in return for him and you’re looking for a new young QB (again, likely to be a worse prospect than Williams)
the only scenario where keeping Fields works out well in the long run for the Bears is if he’s so good in 2024 with Marvin Harrison where it’s a slam dunk no brainer to sign him to a mega extension. Any other scenario is massively risky and betting on him to be better than Caleb Williams seems foolish given what we’ve seen from Fields in the time he’s been in the league.
if he had another year on his contract, I think it’s a very different situation.
Moore had a great statistical year, yes. Similar to his 2019 and 2021 years. And the Bears passing offense was still horrendous.
perhaps I’m in the minority, but I’d view a WR putting up big numbers on a terrible passing offense as a waste given their limited shelf life and the fairly rapid decline a lot of those guys have.
Calvin Johnson is one of the greatest ever and a first ballot HOF (or should be) but his talents were undeniably wasted by playing with trash tier QB. He, despite the gaudy stats, played on one top 5 offense (by points scored) and 5 of 9 years on a below average offense.
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has a new mock this morning with the Pats taking MHJ at 3 and Daniels falling to ATL at 8. In his rankings he hasn’t been a big Daniels guy so I wonder if that is impacting his mock. Daniels stock is up since Dane updated his rankings.
He has us taking Bo Nix in the 2nd.
He has us taking Bo Nix in the 2nd.
I'm as big of an MHJ guy as there is, but this seems like someone trying to zig while everyone is zagging. If Daniels is available at 3, it would be shocking at this point for the Pats to take anyone else.
I'll be disappointed if we come out of this draft with Nix as the future at QB. We don't need another physically limited prospect (even if he's less so than Mac and Zappe). Either grab who's there at #3 or trade up to get the preferred guy. I would even prefer JJ over Nix.
I think you take a QB, but to me if you really don't love the other options...... taking MHJ is crazy to me. Someone will want their QB there and I'd FAR prefer NAbers/Odunze/Alt/Fashanu and extra picks.
Looking at the mock draft database linked below Daniels is the favorite but there are plenty that have us picking MHJ. The below doesn’t include the latest Athletic mock.
Daniels - 14
MHJ - 10
Maye - 8
Alt - 2
Caleb - 1 (trade up)
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2024
DJ Moore has had pretty great years with Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold and Fields.
DJ Moore is the most underrated receiver in the NFL.
If the Pats are looking at FA QB's, I'd much rather wait for Russell Wilson vs. Fields, solely because Denver is going to paying Wilson.
If NE wants a top QB prospect, they can have one of Williams, Maye, or Daniels.
If they prefer to wait for a QB, they'll have a reasonable chance at MHJ (or could draft Nabers or Odunze), and almost certainly could grab Alt or Fashanu at T if MHJ is not available, and then get a QB (McCarthy/Nix/Penix maybe) with pick #35.
Of course it's possible to misjudge and whiff on the #3 pick. We've seen it before in the NFL. But they're in as good a position as they've been since the Bledsoe pick to grab a real difference-maker.
If they prefer to wait for a QB, they'll have a reasonable chance at MHJ (or could draft Nabers or Odunze), and almost certainly could grab Alt or Fashanu at T if MHJ is not available, and then get a QB (McCarthy/Nix/Penix maybe) with pick #35.
Of course it's possible to misjudge and whiff on the #3 pick. We've seen it before in the NFL. But they're in as good a position as they've been since the Bledsoe pick to grab a real difference-maker.
I'm not sure about Nix, as I want to go QB at #3, but he's considered pretty athletic from everything I've read about him. What makes you say he's "physically limited"?
A couple of write-ups:
--Nix's combination of athleticism and arm talent provides a solid foundation for NFL offenses to craft schemes around his strengths.
--Very good athlete. Explosive short-area movement; shows good speed in the open field.
--Standout athlete with a thick frame, boasting plus speed and agility considering his weight.
I flip-flop on this all of the time. QB is so important and if you're at #3 and need a QB, you should really grab one at #3.
However, MHJ is the surest bet at the top of the draft. Grabbing Nix at #35 to go with him would not be the worst plan.
However, MHJ is the surest bet at the top of the draft. Grabbing Nix at #35 to go with him would not be the worst plan.
yeah, Nix is a good athlete. I wouldn't want him because I think he is not a good downfield processor, and he undermines his arm strength by falling away from pressure and bad footwork, and he's 5 years into that.
problem is you’re relying on Nix to be there and he’s nowhere near the talent (as a prospect) as the top guys.
If you could have a great QB and good WR or good QB and great WR, the choice should always be the former (for a variety of reasons)
Obviously that’s an oversimplification and all prospects come with inherent risks but an elite ceiling QB is almost never available unless you’re drafting very high in a good QB class. You’re more likely to be able to find a high end WR via trade, you’re more likely to find a good (not insanely good) WR in rounds 2+ and the value of an elite QB by far outweighs any value an elite WR has.
WR is very important these days and Harrison is the best prospect in a generation at the position. But QB is just way too important to hope that a much lesser prospect not only falls to you but also hits his ceiling (which is likely to be lower than the ceiling of Williams, Maye and Daniels)
If you take Harrison and some team does something wacky like trade up into the back of the 1st round for Nix, then what? Hope Zappe develops now that he has Harrison? Hope a guy like Pratt, Rattler or Ward can be a miracle mid/late round pick?
if the top prospects in this QB class were guys like Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett, Christian Ponder etc - guys whose positional value pushed them way up the board, it would be different.
The only way Harrison makes sense to me for the Patriots is if Cousins is your QB. The very best WR in football can’t really carry a team. Chase and Jefferson couldn’t do it with trash QB (though they tried). Hopkins and Calvin Johnson couldn’t do it most of their careers. Hill couldn’t do it with Miami this year against good teams. Devante Adams hasn’t done it with the Raiders. But the very best QB can carry mediocre WR and can go very far with good-not-great receiving talent.
The volume of massively talented wide receivers playing critical roles for playoff teams drafted in the 2nd or later—and many in their 1st or 2nd season—has been eye-popping. Collins and Dell (pre-injury) for Houston, Green Bay's entire pass-catching group, Puka, Amon-Ra, Trey Palmer. That has me leaning QB as much as anything, and I am someone who has been skittish about that direction in the past.
Do you feel better about the org building up a flawed QB prospect into a franchise QB or about them figuring out how to consistently pick WR talent?
I think the latter is often as simple as actually trying. On the former, you really have to be right. And ideally you already have a good QB in the fold to keep the seat warm while you see what you have. You can spray and pray with receivers because you get to have a bunch of them on the field. With QBs you have to be right, or really good at building a guy up.
Do you feel better about the org building up a flawed QB prospect into a franchise QB or about them figuring out how to consistently pick WR talent?
I think the latter is often as simple as actually trying. On the former, you really have to be right. And ideally you already have a good QB in the fold to keep the seat warm while you see what you have. You can spray and pray with receivers because you get to have a bunch of them on the field. With QBs you have to be right, or really good at building a guy up.
Id want Wilson over Fields for a variety of reasons - he’s a better player, will be cheaper (with the offsets from Denver) and wouldn’t cost anything to acquire.
But Wilson would be far from my preferred solution. Fields is a nonstarter
In a vacuum, I’d take Harrison in a complete rebuild. But this isn’t a complete gut job. Since the defense is already strong, and will be better next year, I think they have to go QB. With a good QB, this team can probably win 8 games next year with better QB play and can be in the playoffs by year three of Mayo’s tenure. Maybe they won’t be so stubborn and will sign or trade for a good WR down the road.
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To me it's a question of what is more likely to happen (and this assumes that you hit on pick):
1--A really good QB is able to produce with average WR talent around him and lead the team to wins.
2--A really good WR is able to produce with average QB talent around him and lead the team to wins.
I lean towards a really good QB doing more, because like Jed said, you get more bites at the WR (and offense in general) apple.
1--A really good QB is able to produce with average WR talent around him and lead the team to wins.
2--A really good WR is able to produce with average QB talent around him and lead the team to wins.
I lean towards a really good QB doing more, because like Jed said, you get more bites at the WR (and offense in general) apple.