The second tiebreaker is H2H (the team with the lower winning percentage ‘wins’ the H2H tiebreaker), so if they tie in SOS the Pats win the tiebreaker and get the higher pick.
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
Pats and Giants did play.
And yeah, I was picking those games how I thought they’d go.
Recapping --
Pats are now at 141 opponent wins, Giants at 139. Two game difference. With a Pats win and Giants loss (two more opponent wins), they'd be tied on SOS.
(edit: I think the rest of the post is incorrect. Spoilering for posterity.)
Which means that the Pats only need two of the four games above to go their way (with the tiebreaker) to finish ahead of giants on draft order.
Chargers are at 143 opponent wins, with a loss there the Chargers and Pats would be four wins apart on SOS. Pats pick ahead of Chargers unless Pittsburgh beats Baltimore and three of the four games go against the Pats.
Houston
Indianapolis
Dallas
Washington
Atlanta
New Orleans
Jacksonville
Tennessee
Titans are at 144 wins, a loss puts them 5 away. Pats need 1 win from this group of six:
Seattle
Arizona
Kansas City
LA Chargers
Houston
Indianapolis
Buffalo
Miami
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Atlanta
New Orleans
Chargers are at 143 opponent wins, with a loss there the Chargers and Pats would be four wins apart on SOS. Pats pick ahead of Chargers unless Pittsburgh beats Baltimore and three of the four games go against the Pats.
Houston
Indianapolis
Dallas
Washington
Atlanta
New Orleans
Jacksonville
Tennessee
Titans are at 144 wins, a loss puts them 5 away. Pats need 1 win from this group of six:
Seattle
Arizona
Kansas City
LA Chargers
Houston
Indianapolis
Buffalo
Miami
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Atlanta
New Orleans
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No, I’m suggesting that they’ll draft Williams and deal Fields for more picks.
It’s going to be crazy when after all this they trade out of the 4th pick to pick interior lineman Bobby Badknees from High Character University at 14.
Actualy, I think my summary is wrong, because the Pats automatically get one win from Dallas-Wash and KC-LAC, so I think the Pats can't finish behind either the Chargers or Titans.
The Patriots want the following teams to win next week:
Baltimore (PIT), Houston(@IND), Chicago(@GB), Denver(@LV), and Atlanta(@NO)
They need a total of four wins from those teams, but the Atlanta game counts double.
Maybe, but I don’t think that’s a sure thing whatsoever. If I had to start a roster at QB right now, Fields is in my Top 10.
I don’t know. Fields will get expensive soon, Williams is rated very highly. The smart move would be to reset the rookie QB contract clock.
A win against the Jets could be a perfect scenario for BB when he, Josh and Patricia join the Chargers next year.
End Week 17
4-12 WAS SOS .5147 (140-132) - vs. DAL 4:25p Sun
4-12 NE SOS .5184 (141-131) - vs. NYJ 1p Sun
4-12 ARI SOS .5625 (153-119) - vs. SEA 4:25p Sun
5-11 NYG SOS .5110 (139-133) - vs. PHI 4:25p Sun
5-11 LAC SOS .5257 (143-129) - vs. KC 4:25p Sun
5-11 TEN SOS .5294 (144-128) - vs. JAX 1p Sun
CHI (via CAR) has clinched the #1 overall pick. NE has the 3rd pick going into week 18, based on losing the 2nd tiebreaker (SOS) with WAS but winning it with ARI.
If NE loses and WAS wins, NE will have the #2 pick
If NE loses and WAS loses, NE will have the #2 pick if the combination of relevant SOS games falls 1+ game in NE's favor; otherwise WAS will have the #2 pick and NE will have the #3 pick
(relevant games: PIT-BAL (root BAL 0.5g), HOU-IND (root HOU 0.5g), ATL-NO (root ATL 1.0g), CHI-GB (root CHI 0.5g), DEN-LV (root DEN 0.5g))
If NE wins and WAS/ARI/NYG lose, NE will have the #4 pick if the combination of SOS games falls 1+ game in NE's favor, otherwise NYG will have the #4 pick and NE will have the #5 pick
(3 or 4 of the following must occur: BAL over PIT, HOU over IND, CHI over GB and LV over DEN)
NE cannot fall below LAC (based on tied SOS & H2H tiebreaker) or TEN (based on lower SOS)), so they will not pick lower than #5
4-12 WAS SOS .5147 (140-132) - vs. DAL 4:25p Sun
4-12 NE SOS .5184 (141-131) - vs. NYJ 1p Sun
4-12 ARI SOS .5625 (153-119) - vs. SEA 4:25p Sun
5-11 NYG SOS .5110 (139-133) - vs. PHI 4:25p Sun
5-11 LAC SOS .5257 (143-129) - vs. KC 4:25p Sun
5-11 TEN SOS .5294 (144-128) - vs. JAX 1p Sun
CHI (via CAR) has clinched the #1 overall pick. NE has the 3rd pick going into week 18, based on losing the 2nd tiebreaker (SOS) with WAS but winning it with ARI.
If NE loses and WAS wins, NE will have the #2 pick
If NE loses and WAS loses, NE will have the #2 pick if the combination of relevant SOS games falls 1+ game in NE's favor; otherwise WAS will have the #2 pick and NE will have the #3 pick
(relevant games: PIT-BAL (root BAL 0.5g), HOU-IND (root HOU 0.5g), ATL-NO (root ATL 1.0g), CHI-GB (root CHI 0.5g), DEN-LV (root DEN 0.5g))
If NE wins and WAS/ARI/NYG lose, NE will have the #4 pick if the combination of SOS games falls 1+ game in NE's favor, otherwise NYG will have the #4 pick and NE will have the #5 pick
(3 or 4 of the following must occur: BAL over PIT, HOU over IND, CHI over GB and LV over DEN)
NE cannot fall below LAC (based on tied SOS & H2H tiebreaker) or TEN (based on lower SOS)), so they will not pick lower than #5
I think the Pats need only two of these to occur because they win the H2H tiebreaker with NYG.
They need the SOS to fall in their favor; H2H only matters if the SOS is a tie.
Having follow this all year, I've come to trust @amfox1 when it comes to this
There are plenty of examples of highly touted top QB talent who go at the top of the draft who never make it into top 10 QB territory. It’s taken 3 years for the Bears and Fields to build themselves into a dangerous unit - is this really a risk the Bears want to take on? They are in good position as it is for the future, it’s awfully risky to shake that up.
More or less, but it depends who's ahead of them and what they want. If they want a QB, you want top 3 if you think Daniels is part of the Williams/Maye grouping.
Bears and/or Cardinals may be after MHJ, so that could push a QB down.
How could anyone possibly not agree that 3 (or better) is preferable to 4 or 5? Not only do you get a better shot at the first round guy you want, you’re also a spot or two ahead in each subsequent round.
As for the Pats pick, SoS doesn’t seem likely to end in our favor. The most likely scenarios seem like 3 with a loss and 5 with a win.
And they’d get significant draft capital to go with it, probably, via a trade down to get MHJ. All of these other teams in the 2-4 range need QB and Williams is the clear consensus 1.
I think AZ is pretty ready to trade in Murray for Williams potentially, but we’ll see.
And they have a ton of cap space. I'm not a Bears fan but would assume the general feeling is they did Fields wrong until this year in terms of protection and weapons and now with better weapons he is looking great. Bears will win 7 or 8 games with a ton of cap space and 2 great picks, are they going to sell fans on stalling their improvement while they wait another 2 years for a rookie QB to develop? How will that look if that rookie struggles and Fields is an MVP candidate somewhere else?
I don't think they can afford that can they? Isn't his dead cap hit like $80M next year?
There’s hopefully no way MHJ doesn’t go in the top 3, right? So, even at #4 we get one of the three QBs?
it would certainly be a terrible outcome to miss out on the top 3 QBs in a 3 QB draft.
If I was Chicago, I’d trade the #1 pick for a haul and surround Fields with weapons. Those rookie QBs are not guaranteed to be better than him in the long term and certainly won’t be in the short term.
it would certainly be a terrible outcome to miss out on the top 3 QBs in a 3 QB draft.
If I was Chicago, I’d trade the #1 pick for a haul and surround Fields with weapons. Those rookie QBs are not guaranteed to be better than him in the long term and certainly won’t be in the short term.
Was hoping to see Jayden Daniels play for LSU today but he has opted out of the Bowl game to prep for the NFL draft.
Let’s hope, I have a completely non analytical vibe that he will be the best of the top three.He's getting ready for his first game with the Pats!
It's $46M if they trade him. Which is still a ton.
TD for sure is a possibility but I'm just not feeling the love that a team would be willing to part with... say swapping and their second round pick and maybe a early 2025 pick... to move up 2-3 spots.
Does the order of tied teams shuffle in subsequent rounds? That appears to be what Tankathon has. They have the Pats picking #3 in Rd. 1, 2 in 2, and 4 in 3.
No. I don't think so. If they waive Murray, the Cards are on the hook for $35M in salary.
If they trade him, the salary goes to the acquiring team. Cards would have $46M in dead money but actually save $5M on the 2024 cap with no future charges after 2024.
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Put me in the camp that thinks CHI will trade out of the #1 spot for a haul (early guess WAS for #2, #41 (via CHI), #100) and take MHJr and Dallas Turner in the 1st round.
What an inflection point for this team and organization. Kraft has been living off past success just as much as BB has. My greatest fear is that BB has the vote of confidence from Kraft, but his personal interest in winning football games immedately leads him to make decisions at the top of the draft that are not consonant with the long term interests of the organization.
If BB is picking in 2024, he better not be picking for his job or himself. That only comes with a Kraft reassurance for the next 3-5 years. Otherwise, shake hands, part ways and start anew.
If BB is picking in 2024, he better not be picking for his job or himself. That only comes with a Kraft reassurance for the next 3-5 years. Otherwise, shake hands, part ways and start anew.
