Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

[NextBigThing8184]

Alright so who is the QB3 in this draft? Let's say Williams, Maye, and MHJ are all off the board. Does anyone here think any of Penix Jr, Bo Nix, or JJ McCarthy are worthy of a top 10 pick?

I think there’s a good chance Penix ends up a top 10 pick if his medicals don’t scare teams off

There’s a ton of good QB prospects in this draft and a ton of QB needy teams. Minnesota is likely to move on from Cousins who is the only veteran option who will fill a starting gig. The Pats, Steelers, Bears, Falcons, Packers and Commanders all have underwhelming young QB’s. The Saints, Jets, Raiders, Giants all have a guy for next year but might want a long term option (can’t see the Giants sticking with Daniel Jones despite the contract). Tennessee might not like Levis and Tannehill is broken down. The Cardinals might not be all in on Murray if they have a shot at Maye or Williams. Denver almost certainly can’t ride with Russell Wilson despite his contract. The Bucs desperately need a long term answer which Mayfield probably isn’t.

Now obviously not all those teams go QB. But if “their guy” is within striking range, I could see any of them taking a QB high.

It’s a QB driven league which is split in the haves and have nots right now. Teams without a top 10 QB have almost no shot at a Super Bowl with the way the game is played these days. That will likely force some of these “good not great” QB prospects up the board. For all the times a Bridgewater or even Levis fall, there’s more often a Ponder, Locker, Trubisky, Lance etc who teams talk themselves into.

The only veteran option out there this year is Cousins who will be expensive and isn’t a fit for most QB needy teams since he’s a short term win-now guy. So there will be a lot of teams with immediate holes or room to upgrade (e.g. from Pickett or Ridder)

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Also folks. Just a heads up. This year OT is deep in the draft. Outside WR is incredible. This is the best outside WR crop in at least the last 5-6 years. Could be a decade? (Edit I started watching WRs - the top 6-7 guys I’ve seen so far on the outside are all better prospects than what Parker is producing at).

The good news for the Pats is that their 3 biggest holes - QB, WR and OT are the deepest and best positions in this draft. They could be able to fill 2 of those holes with quality prospects (whether or not those guys end up any good is another story)

the bad news is that free agency for those positions is almost a total wasteland (Higgins is almost certainly going to be franchise tagged)

The Pats need an offense-only draft outside of maybe a mid round DL or 2 since Guy looks cooked and Wise/Godchaux are getting older/expensive/not great.

Im skeptical it will play out that way unfortunately

 

[BigSoxFan]

I don't even know where to put this, it just makes it hurt even more:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkmKcahjJfE

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

[DJnVa]

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah that will happen in a league where the owners talk about the inmates running the asylum.

 

[BaseballJones]

Let him fall to #3 or #4 or wherever the Pats draft. Then offer him 0.0000001% ownership of the Pats and draft him.

 

[koufax32]

Isn’t the blatant circumvention of cap rules? Like he and his reps are the very first people to think of that? I’d like to see them bring that up in pre-draft interviews and watch him get laughed at.

“I want the rules to change for me.” Sit down, rookie.

 

[j44thor]

His reps can't be that stupid can they? Obviously not something a team can offer nor would they.
Between his diva act and Shadeur Sanders looking more and more like a diva, posting links to his merch line during half-time of the Stanford debacle, this QB class is beginning to look a little disappointing. Probably better off looking at OT/WR early and see where the 2nd tier of QBs land in the draft. There are enough interesting QB options like Jaxson Dart and KJ Jefferson that might make it to the 3rd rd.

 

[DJnVa]

Aaron Rodgers asked for it too. And it's not prohibited.

Likewise, a league source tells PFT that Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers attempted to secure equity in his contract discussions with the Jets.

The Jets never had to say “no,” because the league did it for the Jets — and every other team — last week.

It feels like an antitrust violation. And it’s potentially collusion, if giving a player equity is not prohibited by the Collective Bargaining Agreement and if the new rule was passed without bargaining between the league and the union.

 

[Cellar-Door]

[

Aaron Rodgers asked for it too. And it's not prohibited.

Not sure why Dov thinks it isn't prohibited. They clarified, but the CBA has rules on compensation, equity is most certainly other compensation and based on that section of the CBA, not sure how it would be allowed (particularly since it has no clear value against the cap each year, and would trigger circumvention). Beyond that, the NFL has bylaws regarding who can be an owner and how, gifting an equity share to a player who also circumvent that.

 

[Jimbodandy]

The good news for the Pats is that their 3 biggest holes - QB, WR and OT are the deepest and best positions in this draft. They could be able to fill 2 of those holes with quality prospects (whether or not those guys end up any good is another story)

the bad news is that free agency for those positions is almost a total wasteland (Higgins is almost certainly going to be franchise tagged)

The Pats need an offense-only draft outside of maybe a mid round DL or 2 since Guy looks cooked and Wise/Godchaux are getting older/expensive/not great.

Im skeptical it will play out that way unfortunately

From your lips to God's ears.

Except that last sentence.

 

[Marciano490]

[

Not sure why Dov thinks it isn't prohibited. They clarified, but the CBA has rules on compensation, equity is most certainly other compensation and based on that section of the CBA, not sure how it would be allowed (particularly since it has no clear value against the cap each year, and would trigger circumvention). Beyond that, the NFL has bylaws regarding who can be an owner and how, gifting an equity share to a player who also circumvent that.

I thought this was an issue with Brady and the Dolphins at some point as well.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Accounting for equity against the cap and preventing not just circumvention of the cap but avoiding competitor conflicts of interest would be a nightmare. Even if you could value equity at a particular point in time, would it change over time? And how would it work when the player is traded or signs elsewhere? Do they keep equity in their former team? Do their equity stakes liquidate upon leaving the team? And how is that allocated against the cap?

It’s a nonstarter, I think.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Accounting for equity against the cap and preventing not just circumvention of the cap but avoiding competitor conflicts of interest would be a nightmare. Even if you could value equity at a particular point in time, would it change over time? And how would it work when the player is traded or signs elsewhere? Do they keep equity in their former team? Do their equity stakes liquidate upon leaving the team? And how is that allocated against the cap?

It’s a nonstarter, I think.

Yup. Complete nonstarter given the complexities of accounting for it. And teams would come up with all sorts of valuation shenanigans.

 

[Justthetippett]

This will never happen for him but I have to say I like that marquee players (including those soon to be such) are starting to push the status quo. The balance of power between ownership and the players in the NFL is obscene. Eventually it will have to change. For that to happen you need your stars to use their leverage to establish new terms. The NIL stuff in college may have an unintended consequence of teaching these guys at a younger age how to operate within structure and use their representation. (Unlike the previous system that just taught them how to skirt rules and hopefully not get caught.)

 

[ShaneTrot]

This will never happen for him but I have to say I like that marquee players (including those soon to be such) are starting to push the status quo. The balance of power between ownership and the players in the NFL is obscene. Eventually it will have to change. For that to happen you need your stars to use their leverage to establish new terms. The NIL stuff in college may have an unintended consequence of teaching these guys at a younger age how to operate within structure and use their representation. (Unlike the previous system that just taught them how to skirt rules and hopefully not get caught.)

I am with you. Bob Kraft has never had a concussion or torn his ACL. We pay to see the players. NFL players get 47% of the revenue according to the NFLPA. I find that obscene. With these TV deals, the owners are making money before they sell one ticket.

 

[The Social Chair]

Dov Kleiman aggregating Mike Florio reeks of double bullshit.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

I am with you. Bob Kraft has never had a concussion or torn his ACL. We pay to see the players. NFL players get 47% of the revenue according to the NFLPA. I find that obscene. With these TV deals, the owners are making money before they sell one ticket.

I was curious so did just a Google search and found that the typical fortune 500 company spends roughly 50-60 percent of revenue on payroll. I think if we add non-player payroll to the 47 percent players get, NFL payrolls are probably in line with the typical fortune 500 company.

 

[BaseballJones]

I was curious so did just a Google search and found that the typical fortune 500 company spends roughly 50-60 percent of revenue on payroll. I think if we add non-player payroll to the 47 percent players get, NFL payrolls are probably in line with the typical fortune 500 company.

One big difference being that in other industries, the workers (the payroll) produce the product. In the NFL (and other pro sports), the players ARE the product.

I’d be curious to know what percentage of revenue the players get in the NFL compared to other pro sports.

 

[Devizier]

One big difference being that in other industries, the workers (the payroll) produce the product. In the NFL (and other pro sports), the players ARE the product.

I’d be curious to know what percentage of revenue the players get in the NFL compared to other pro sports.

From memory, for the US sports leagues it's hovered around 50%, at least officially.

Here's what Statista has to say (take it with a grain of salt).

 

[Jimbodandy]

Damn those Indian cricketers are getting the short end of the stick.

 

[slamminsammya]

EPL being such an outlier is an interesting case. is that a function of the oil money or what? is it because of the much larger incentives to place in CL, which doesn't exist in American sports?

 

[Cellar-Door]

EPL being such an outlier is an interesting case. is that a function of the oil money or what? is it because of the much larger incentives to place in CL, which doesn't exist in American sports?

It was 58% pre-pandemic, 71% is from the year when they got basically no matchday revenue. Also Deloitte is not that transparent on how they are treating transfer fees which makes it hard to say how accurate this is, probably considerably less accurate than something like the NBA where what counts as revenue and what counts as player comp and the percentages are all agreed by CBA.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I'm sorry, but a 22 year old coming into the league in any sport has no basis to ask for a piece of ownership of the team. No owner is going to give Williams equity of the team. It's just not going to happen.

 

[Arroyoyo]

I think I’m out on Caleb Williams, even if they are in position to draft him. Not passing the vibe check.

Get slayed, get Maye’d

 

[djbayko]

Damn those Indian cricketers are getting the short end of the stick.

You might even say they’re wicket underpaid.

 

[sezwho]

You might even say they’re wicket underpaid.

Paying too many chiefs and not enough Indians (or apparently Pakistani and Sri Lankans).

 

[SoxVindaloo]

Damn those Indian cricketers are getting the short end of the stick.

This changed dramatically with the last TV contracts a year ago and the expansion fees for the two new teams. Before that player salaries were in line with the others listed above.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I'm sorry, but a 22 year old coming into the league in any sport has no basis to ask for a piece of ownership of the team. No owner is going to give Williams equity of the team. It's just not going to happen.

Doesn't the NFL constitution or its bylaws prohibit anyone with an ownership interest from playing on a NFL team? I thought we learned that during the Brady retirement saga.

If so, this report seems bizarre -- is the guy actually asking for something that he can't get? That would suggest that either the report is wrong or his agent is very dumb.

Also, is an NCAA player's agent even allowed to make statements like this, which relate to NFL employment, while the player is playing games during the season? I thought agents were limited to NIL stuff during the year, and could not do NFL employment related stuff while the player has games on the schedule. Maybe "representatives" in the tweet is doing a lot of work and really means Williams' stupid brother.

 

[Marciano490]

Maybe it’s just a marketing ploy, changing the narrative from his poor performance the week before, and positioning him as a generational talent with an unprecedented price tag.

 

[Red Averages]

I was curious so did just a Google search and found that the typical fortune 500 company spends roughly 50-60 percent of revenue on payroll. I think if we add non-player payroll to the 47 percent players get, NFL payrolls are probably in line with the typical fortune 500 company.

It might be comperable to Asset Management, which is a “talent” based business as well. I wasn’t sure the numbers but a quick google showed:

Asset managers are human-capital businesses and nicely profitable, too. According to Walters, employee compensation and other personnel-related expenses account for as much as 75 percent of expenses, and profit margins are roughly 35 percent. “[Asset management is] probably not going to be the area where there’s significant cuts,” she said.

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2bstr188w1qsfur3xsa9s/corner-office/the-asset-management-industry-is-still-very-healthy-for-now

It’s a little tricky because most of the biggest talent ARE owners of these companies… which… is kind of what the players are trying to establish.

 

[Bowser]

Not sure it's quite binky time, but I want to put QB Michael Pratt from Tulane on the table. 6'3" and 220lbs. Can run, above average arm. An incredible leader, allegedly. Williams is the best, obviously, and I think McCarthy will be better than Maye. I also like Nix and Riley Leonard. But if we don't go QB with our first pick, heaven forbid, Pratt might be an interesting Day 2 pick.

 

[JM3]

Draft pick watching guide for today...

View: https://twitter.com/ByChrisMason/status/1715755404406235628


https://www.masslive.com/patriots/2023/10/tv-guide-to-top-nfl-draft-picks-for-patriots-fans.html

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

This changes shit

 

[jsinger121]

Giants and Bears both won

 

[8slim]

All the sure fire first and second round QB picks looked pretty lousy yesterday.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

All the sure fire first and second round QB picks looked pretty lousy yesterday.

McCarthy looked very good albeit in a blowout

 

[AB in DC]

Giants and Bears both won

Denver winning right now too.

 

[Rook05]

Hope for the best with the other teams. I’m fairly annoyed. Close game with a loss at the end would’ve been ideal.

 

[DJnVa]

Pats in the #5 spot as of now. Denver and Arizona both in close games.

 

[streeter88]

Now #4 according to nfl.com, tried to paste in the list unsuccessfuly; current bottom 10 / current draft order:

10. Packers 2-4-0
9. Chargers 2-4-0
8. VIkings 2-4-0
7.Titans 2-4-0
6. Bears 2-5-0
5. Broncos 2-5-0
4. Patriots 2-5-0
3. Giants 2-5-0
2. Cardinals 1-6-0
1. Bears (via Panthers) 0-6-0

Vikings play 49ers on MNF is only potential change to this list until Week 8.

nfl.com league standings 2023

 

[Jake Peavy's Demons]

Now #4 according to nfl.com, tried to paste in the list unsuccessfuly; current bottom 10 / current draft order:

10. Packers 2-4-0
9. Chargers 2-4-0
8. VIkings 2-4-0
7.Titans 2-4-0
6. Bears 2-5-0
5. Broncos 2-5-0
4. Patriots 2-5-0
3. Giants 2-5-0
2. Cardinals 1-6-0
1. Bears (via Panthers) 0-6-0

Vikings play 49ers on MNF is only potential change to this list until Week 8.

nfl.com league standings 2023

Interesting. According to Tankathon, we stay at #6. The key is the SOS tiebreaker; while CHI, DEN, NYG all have the same record as us, their SOS is lower than ours (.550) (at .441, .514, .536, respectively).

Seems if we'd lost, we'd be sitting in #2 or #3.

 

[streeter88]

I wondered about SOS which nfl.com lists as a tie breaker, but not at all clear from the table. Thanks for the additional data points.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Not that it matters to the Patriots since he'll be gone, but.... man Caleb Williams is not a particuarly inspiring QB 1. Pre-season hype train was trying to compare him to Lawrence as a prospect... dude has zero pocket presence at all.
Every game is the same flow-chart
1. Does he have 5 seconds of pristine pocket.... if yes skip to #3 if not go to #2
2. PANIC!
3. Is anybody open..... if yes skip to #5 if no go to #4
4. PANIC
5. Throw rocket towards open man.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I wonder how Tuesday's trade deadline might shake up the race to the near-bottom

 

[BaseballJones]

Not that it matters to the Patriots since he'll be gone, but.... man Caleb Williams is not a particuarly inspiring QB 1. Pre-season hype train was trying to compare him to Lawrence as a prospect... dude has zero pocket presence at all.
Every game is the same flow-chart
1. Does he have 5 seconds of pristine pocket.... if yes skip to #3 if not go to #2
2. PANIC!
3. Is anybody open..... if yes skip to #5 if no go to #4
4. PANIC
5. Throw rocket towards open man.

I wonder if Maye is going to pass him on draft lists. But if somehow he drops to NE at, say, #5, you still have to take a shot at him, right?

 

[Cellar-Door]

I wonder if Maye is going to pass him on draft lists. But if somehow he drops to NE at, say, #5, you still have to take a shot at him, right?

I think he still goes 1, because people will think they can fix his happy feet and lack of clock... the throws he makes are really good, and he probably has better tools than Maye who has his own issues. Mostly it's just that he's not some generational prospect like he was hyped to be.

 

[Arroyoyo]

If they upset Miami today and it looks like they’re genuinely starting to click, they won’t be sellers IMO because the next five games are winnable. If they win and seem to have “figured it out,” in theory they could end up going on a run to 8-5.

If they lose and look more like the team they were before Buffalo, they’d be crazy not to be sellers. 2-6, with 7-6 as the best case scenario through the “soft” part of their schedule, though 6-7 or worse would be more likely.

I think so much hinges on their performance today.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

LOL get serious.

 

[Arroyoyo]

I’ve been watching some Drake Maye tape and he’s really, really impressive. He has a bit of Josh Allen to him: good size and mobility but with greater accuracy. He makes some incredible throws on the move and repeatedly fits the ball into tight windows. I’ve seen some fantastic throws - some truly jaw-dropping - with him rolling to his left.

If they manage to draft him they’re going to go from rags to riches at the QB position overnight.

They’re 2-6…don’t ruin this now, Bill and RKK. Tank it. There’s nothing to be gained but loss of draft positioning and a blue-chip prospect in these last nine games.