I know right? Crazy thing is despite all of this it took a Javonte Green mid-range jumper to put this total Over the number I got.
I disagree. The line movements in the lesser volume games when compared to the bet% on these games give huge tells to the correct side. Pre-seasons, Canadian football, college basketball & football, WNBA.....you can easily see which side the sharp money is coming in on by late morning in the daily sports and by late Monday morning in NFL and college football. Good examples the past two nights in NBA were Philly last night and Miami Mon night......both beat the number by 15+ points. Another, ever though it lost, was last nights Under in the Celtics game. When it takes 8 three's in one quarter by Carsen Edwards to beat you by a point and a half you know you were on the correct side which is all you can ask for long term.
I'm no expert by any means I just try and pick up edges whenever I can while always looking to improve my process. I'm not looking at stats per se or scheduling as these numbers are already baked into the line. Oh and those silly trends you hear all the time are virtually worthless. I'm mostly looking for reverse line moves that occur the morning the line comes out......meaning public betting is leaning 65-70% or higher on one side while the number is moving in the opposite direction indicating sharp money is moving number vs public sentiment. There are several sites or services that provide this information......I like the ease of sportsinsights.com. You can usually gain an edge for ignoring the name on the front of the jersey and focus more on how a particular team has been over- or under-achieving...…..teams like Atlanta and Brooklyn were undervalued during the course of the season due to the predisposed bias the public had on these teams entering the season. You'll have a couple teams like this at multiple points throughout the season who are both over- and under-valued at that particular time. You can sometimes find an edge with a new and/or young head coach as players tend to gravitate toward positive change or against negative change...….a new coach can increase a teams volatility since change does create higher volatility. Also, multiple personnel changes can increase volatility. Ok, I'm just rambling now but I love talking about this stuff and learning more about it from others who are successful in this game.
This may sound anti-analytic but really it isn't as I am also a firm believer that any no-nothing person can simply hang around their local bar or card game while fading (betting against) the consensus of these casual sports fans and do quite well. I have no data to support however I always listen to sports talk when at the poker table and/or bring up certain upcoming popular games to see who these players are betting or liking...…..I'm guessing they are on the wrong side (which is nearly always the strong public side) around 70% of the time.
I also partner with a professional bettor so I can see his plays on my accounts and how the number is moving in relation to his play. I currently have 7 "outs" (local online books) who release their number at various times of the day/week. Those who put it out early get hit early and I can usually beat the closing line while others give me great value due to having a good live-wagering program where you can get some real soft numbers. I am working hard on my discipline level with live-betting as you can recognize how game flow and game planning does effect the total number of points scored in a contest...….I find probably 4x the opportunities in Totals/Team Totals than I do in Sides when live betting for this reason.
I follow several sharp bettors on Twitter and utilize their information to formulate my own opinion...….some which falls into a reverse line move and some which doesn't. When it does the strength of the play seems to vastly increase. I listen to VSIN on satellite 204 when I am driving or the app when I am not to take in as much info as possible while recognizing much of it is noise but worthy of picking up valuable pieces of info along the way by deciphering it. The morning guys talk a lot about NHL props which I began profiting from last year and these props are so fluid. Last year the hot plays were the 1P Overs while this season some books offer pre-game wagering on each individual period so now the 2P Overs are the hot plays for some teams. Anyway, I think I rambled enough for one morning.