Nava Back up 5/24/14

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I know it was brought up in another thread, but this seems like the kind of thing that's worthy of it's own thread.
 
https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/470244207211610112
 
Pete Abraham is reporting that Nava is back with the big league club.  Gomes is starting in right field tonight, so the need for some kind of move is obvious.  Rembrat suggested Victorino might end up on the DL in the other thread, which makes sense.
 
The team could also cut bait with Sizemore who hasn't been much of a help overall, or they could try to get Carp through waivers.  The only other option appears to be moving Holt back to Pawtucket and living with Herrera as a starter, which would probably be the worst possible way to respond to Victorino's injury.
 
For a team that felt very deep in March, this roster got very thin very fast.

 

[Reverend]

 

[radsoxfan]

I hope Mookie is looking really good in the outfield…..
 
And I'm only half-kidding. 

 

[rembrat]

If the move is Vic to the DL then how lucky is Sizemore? 

 

[teddywingman]

Awesome.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Looks like it is Victorino back to the DL per numerous sources.

 

[teddywingman]

Cause every little thing gonna be ah, maybe not alright after all.

 

[JMDurron]

Now we desperately need Bradley to remain healthy, because as much as I'm happy to see Nava back vs RHP, the thought of a Nava-Sizemore-Gomes defensive OF is completely horrifying.  That's going to be the result from any obvious PH opportunity going forward, too.  

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

Now we desperately need Bradley to remain healthy, because as much as I'm happy to see Nava back vs RHP, the thought of a Nava-Sizemore-Gomes defensive OF is completely horrifying.  That's going to be the result from any obvious PH opportunity going forward, too.  

yes.  pinch hitting for JBJ should pretty much not be an option for now

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Clutching at straws here, but maybe this situation (i.e., being temporarily indispensable) will be good for JBJ. Maybe without feeling like he's got to prove something to keep his job, he can just relax and remember how to be a good hitter.
 
Hell, something's gotta work.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I don't get the Sizemore-hate in CF. He's not spectacular, but he's not costing the team games their either...despite the game thread fantasy that JBJ would have had that ball last night.

 

[Plympton91]

Clutching at straws here, but maybe this situation (i.e., being temporarily indispensable) will be good for JBJ. Maybe without feeling like he's got to prove something to keep his job, he can just relax and remember how to be a good hitter.
 
Hell, something's gotta work.

Is JBJ a good hitter though? He's always maintained a good spread between his BA and his OBP, but what's his batting average above A ball at this point? It's entirely possible he's a .220 hitter at this point in his career.

But, that's what they locked themselves into. No crying when a very deliberately created hole becomes a hole.

 

[Reverend]

I don't get the Sizemore-hate in CF. He's not spectacular, but he's not costing the team games their either...despite the game thread fantasy that JBJ would have had that ball last night.

JBJ would have gotten that ball last night.

And I like Sizemore.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Is JBJ a good hitter though? He's always maintained a good spread between his BA and his OBP, but what's his batting average above A ball at this point? It's entirely possible he's a .220 hitter at this point in his career.

But, that's what they locked themselves into. No crying when a very deliberately created hole becomes a hole.

 
He's not a high-BA type hitter, certainly. His batting average in AA and AAA was around .275. He probably is, or should be, a .250 hitter right now. But he's got to cut the K rate down. That's the whole issue for him right now. If he can get it down into the 20% range, he can be a .250/.340/.370 kind of hitter, which with his defense is more than adequate. Adding a little more power as he matures could get him into the .275/.370/.425 range, at which point he's a very good player.
 
But it all starts with putting the ball in play more consistently.

 

[radsoxfan]

I don't get the Sizemore-hate in CF. He's not spectacular, but he's not costing the team games their either...despite the game thread fantasy that JBJ would have had that ball last night.

 
I don't mean to single you out, since I've seen this phrase use quite a bit in plenty of different contexts…. But what does it mean that someone is "not costing the team games"?
 
If someone is worse at a particular skill, that's a problem.  JBJ will get to quite a few more balls in the OF than Sizemore. Sometimes this will cost the team runs, sometimes it won't.  Sometimes those extra runs will end up costing the team a game, sometimes it won't.
 
There are so many other variables involved in any one game, that you almost never know if someone's suboptimal performance "cost the team a game". But that's not really the point.  
 
You play the percentages, and put your team in the best position to win as often as possible.  Sizemore is not good at defense anymore, so if he isn't hitting, then he isn't very useful on the team.  I have no idea if his defense has actually cost the team any games yet this year, but over the course of the season, it probably will. 

 

[SoxInTheMist]

Is JBJ a good hitter though? He's always maintained a good spread between his BA and his OBP, but what's his batting average above A ball at this point? It's entirely possible he's a .220 hitter at this point in his career.

But, that's what they locked themselves into. No crying when a very deliberately created hole becomes a hole.

 No, he's not a good hitter.  He's got a terrible, terrible hitch in his swing.  The kind of thing that will be exploited at every level and it's amazing that no one has helped him eliminate it before now.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 No, he's not a good hitter.  He's got a terrible, terrible hitch in his swing.  The kind of thing that will be exploited at every level and it's amazing that no one has helped him eliminate it before now.

 
Probably the reason no one has helped him eliminate it before now is that for some odd reason, it has not been "exploited at every level."
 
It is, of course, possible that JBJ is the kind of hitter whose weaknesses are such that they don't show up until he hits MLB, at which point they are revealed as terminal and unfixable. These things happen. But it's still early to jump to that conclusion. Pedroia had a career slash of .228/.311/.333 on May 22 of his sophomore year, with a little over 200 PA (JBJ now has about 265). He went .395/.453/.570 over the next month, and never looked back. There's no guarantee this will happen to JBJ, of course--but there's also no guarantee it won't.

 

[redsox2020]

Small sample size, of course, but Nava's put up an .862 OPS in 40 PAs so far this month.  Nice to see him doing well again after his early season struggles.

 

[ivanvamp]

Small sample size, of course, but Nava's put up an .862 OPS in 40 PAs so far this month.  Nice to see him doing well again after his early season struggles.

 
With Nava this year, small sample sizes abound.
 
His first stint with the BoSox this year, Mar 31-Apr 21:  
 
75 pa, .149/.240/.269/.509
 
His second stint with the BoSox this year, May 24-present:
 
53 pa, .283/.377/.348/.725
 
Since June 4:
 
42 pa, .361/.452/.444/.897
 
Which one is more predictive going forward?  Well, I'd like to think that he won't be a .509 ops guy moving forward.  But I also don't think he'll be a .897 ops guy moving forward.  I would expect him to be basically a .775 ops guy, something like that.  Which isn't bad at all.

 

[Rovin Romine]

 
With Nava this year, small sample sizes abound.
 
His first stint with the BoSox this year, Mar 31-Apr 21:  
 
75 pa, .149/.240/.269/.509
 
His second stint with the BoSox this year, May 24-present:
 
53 pa, .283/.377/.348/.725
 
Since June 4:
 
42 pa, .361/.452/.444/.897
 
Which one is more predictive going forward?  Well, I'd like to think that he won't be a .509 ops guy moving forward.  But I also don't think he'll be a .897 ops guy moving forward.  I would expect him to be basically a .775 ops guy, something like that.  Which isn't bad at all.

 
While Nava's slump at the beginning of the year didn't do much to help anyone's confidence, he's been much better than a .775 OPS guy in the past.  I think the only thing the SSS blocks from this year do is to show us that, right now (June 4 to today), Nava is physically capable of swinging the bat at, or close to, his established historical levels.
 
We had a thread at some point that discussed Nava and his injuries in hopes of finding his baseline talent level.  However, leaving all of that aside, Nava has a career .820 OPS against RHP over 740 AB.  Those career numbers include injuries (which he was asked to play through) and slumps.  In 2013, he seemed to be largely injury free and had a .894 OPS against RHP in 339 AB.
 
Provided Farrell intelligently platoons him with Gomes, we have enough of a track record to reasonably hope for Nava to be somewhere between an .850 and .900 OPS guy against RHP.  Nava's overall numbers have always been dragged down by his dismal showing against LHP.   Nava's a career .593 OPS player against LHP.   I'm surprised he hasn't tried a Victorino - abandoning switch hitting. 
 
So far though, Nava's gotten 83 AB against RHP and 30 AB against LHP.   That ratio can't be allowed to continue, especially in this year's weak lineup.