Moves I'd Make

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Why couldn't they DFA him? it'd be eating 1.85m. It seems well worth it to get more at bats for O'Neil, Rafaela, or possibly a Duvall or Soler or someone that would add way more to the 2024 lineup.

I'd hope he's not getting at bats over Rafaela, Duran or Abreu anyway.

But as to Soler or Duvall, the gain one of them would produce (over Refnsyder) isn't in all likelihood going to be the difference between playoff baseball or not playoff baseball.

As such, (*I'm clearly projecting my thoughts on to Breslow*) I'd tell Henry that I'm not going to simply flush $20m of his money down the toilet (ie, dropping Refnsyder and giving Soler a one year deal) for something that won't make a bit of difference, other than finishing 10 games out of the playoffs or 8 games out of the playoffs. With the hope that this will be remembered for when the time comes and he's asked to greenlight something over the luxury tax budget.

Now, if FSG wants to spend that money on the guise of competing, fine. But I think Breslow should be telling them that in his opinion it would make such a small difference that they're better served to give as many at bats as possible to Duran, Rafaela and Abreu to see if any of them are part of the core.

Clearly, Breslow couldn't come out and say that to the press, but it's what I'd be telling FSG to hopefully build goodwill (hunting), no, capital.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I'd hope he's not getting at bats over Rafaela, Duran or Abreu anyway.

But as to Soler or Duvall, the gain one of them would produce (over Refnsyder) isn't in all likelihood going to be the difference between playoff baseball or not playoff baseball.

As such, (*I'm clearly projecting my thoughts on to Breslow*) I'd tell Henry that I'm not going to simply flush $20m of his money down the toilet (ie, dropping Refnsyder and giving Soler a one year deal) for something that won't make a bit of difference, other than finishing 10 games out of the playoffs or 8 games out of the playoffs. With the hope that this will be remembered for when the time comes and he's asked to greenlight something over the luxury tax budget.

Now, if FSG wants to spend that money on the guise of competing, fine. But I think Breslow should be telling them that in his opinion it would make such a small difference that they're better served to give as many at bats as possible to Duran, Rafaela and Abreu to see if any of them are part of the core.

Clearly, Breslow couldn't come out and say that to the press, but it's what I'd be telling FSG to hopefully build goodwill (hunting), no, capital.

But as to Soler or Duvall, the gain one of them would produce (over Refnsyder) isn't in all likelihood going to be the difference between playoff baseball or not playoff baseball.

I think you may be underestimating what the Sox lineup could be with Soler right in the middle of it, at Fenway, between Devers and Casas. .340 OBP last year i believe (which is the biggest reason i like him over Duvall). The Athletic projected his contract at 3yr/45m 2 and a half months ago, and he obviously hasn't received that from a team yet. He can DH a bunch but you could also hide him in LF at Fenway, especially if Rafaela is in CF a lot of those days. Lot's of potential OBP guys in Grissom, Devers, Casas, Soler, Yoshida and Abreu. Some speed in Duran, O'Neil and Ceddane as well. keep that line moving and make opposing pitcher throw a lot of pitches. That has always been what the Sox do best when they're at their best. Grab Ryu or Paxton to round out the rotation. Hope that the B's make a positive difference in all of their current pitchers. If you squint, you can see a pretty fun team that could compete for a WC.

 

[TeeJayOrTj]

I am 100% out on signing Montgomery to whatever deal he is going to get. I am not convinced he is even going to be better than Pivetta this year. The Red Sox need an ace and at this point I would wait until next year to sign one. I would use the money this year to extend Pivetta, Casas and Bello. I would see what kind of deal Woodruff will take for a 2-3 year contract. Then I would check in and see if the Soler market tanks enough for a 1-2 year deal. My ideal world would be 1 year deal and keep powder dry (and the DH spot open) to go all in on Soto and 1 of Burnes or Fried next year (maybe Buehler or a short term Wheeler deal also)

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I think you may be underestimating what the Sox lineup could be with Soler right in the middle of it, at Fenway, between Devers and Casas. .340 OBP last year i believe (which is the biggest reason i like him over Duvall). The Athletic projected his contract at 3yr/45m 2 and a half months ago, and he obviously hasn't received that from a team yet. He can DH a bunch but you could also hide him in LF at Fenway, especially if Rafaela is in CF a lot of those days. Lot's of potential OBP guys in Grissom, Devers, Casas, Soler, Yoshida and Abreu. Some speed in Duran, O'Neil and Ceddane as well. keep that line moving and make opposing pitcher throw a lot of pitches. That has always been what the Sox do best when they're at their best. Grab Ryu or Paxton to round out the rotation. Hope that the B's make a positive difference in all of their current pitchers. If you squint, you can see a pretty fun team that could compete for a WC.

I think the line up is (and will be) pretty good, with or without Soler. FWIW.

The starting pitching, I think, is an abomination to the name "Red Sox" that will go on the front of the home whites. FWIW, I'm actually pretty bullish on Breslow and Bailey, both in the short and the long term. I absolutely think they're going to make improvements on the pitching staff. Unfortunately, I think the most likely (slightly optimistic) scenario is that they get pretty decent "jumps" for 2/5ths of the rotation (and my bet on those two are Bello and Giolito). Best case scenario, its 3/5, but that to me is incredibly unlikely. Even more unlikely that it happens early enough in the season for it to matter in terms of playoffs vs not playoffs. For me, adding someone like Paxton or Lorenzen does literally nothing except increase the floor of wins (and in my opinion only puts them up around 77 for sure) and just reduces the upside - as in I think it's far more likely (though still highly unlikely overall) that B&B hit on sizable improvements from 5/5 of the current rotation than it is on James Paxton actually being healthy a full season.

*It's possible they get nothing more out of Bello, nothing more out of Crawford, but make Houck and Winckowski into top half of the rotation starters, of course and then the team is fine short and long term, but I personally find that scenario unlikely.*

What it comes down to, at least for me, is the idea of "competing for a wildcard" and what that means. By the numbers, they were "competing for a wild card" up until something like August 15th of last season, give or take a few days, and I don't want to look it up. But it was incredibly obvious that if (and when) they didn't improve their starting pitching, they were going to fall off - both because of the way the schedule lined up and not being able to rely on openers all the time, the fact that other teams they were competing with added and they didn't, the "waiting on injured guys" mindset, and the fact that the entire freaking team knew it.

Also, with 6 playoff spots now, it takes a heck of a lot to "NOT" compete for WC3 through the first call it 4 months of the season. Like a Mets level kind of stink. As of August 1st last year, there were only 4 teams in the AL that were more than 5 games out of 6th place (or the last WC, generally speaking b/c I'm not looking a division leaders) and they were Oakland, KC, Detroit and ChW - the Sox obviously aren't that bad. The extra WC spot is great because it gives more teams playoff baseball and playoff baseball is fun. It's awful because a team can be below .500 after 2/3 of the season (Cleveland was 53-55) and still technically competing for a WC3 spot.

I don't think you have to "squint" to see a team that can be within 5 games of 6th place on August 1st. I think you have to be incredibly optimistic (which is fine, I'm not begrudging anyone that) to look at the team and say "yep, they're going to be better than Baltimore, Tampa, Toronto, NYY, Hou, Tex and Seattle" - two of which will miss the playoffs anyway.

 

[pdub]

My only concern with signing Soler is the effect it may have on the DH rotation and outfield defense. If Soler joins, you have to DH him fulltime OR put him in LF and then DH Yoshida full time. Having both of those guys in the outfield would probably be a disaster. He fills the need for RH power but I worry about the defense in general.

That said, if the team signs Soler and Montgomery, for example, then that's a pretty decent way of plugging holes. Is it ideal? No, definitely not. Soler has defensive woes and Montgomery, while very solid and dependable, is going to be paid to produce like a bonafide ace. But on the other hand, Story is returning and I expect Casas to continue his rise to fame, so part of me thinks this team is capable of surprises.

 

[tims4wins]

Moved I'd Make: Sign Montgomery. Sign Snell. Compete.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

Moved I'd Make: Sign Montgomery. Sign Snell. Compete.

You want to pay the nine year asking price for Snell? Give three reasons why that would be prudent.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

I am 100% out on signing Montgomery to whatever deal he is going to get. I am not convinced he is even going to be better than Pivetta this year. The Red Sox need an ace and at this point I would wait until next year to sign one. I would use the money this year to extend Pivetta, Casas and Bello. I would see what kind of deal Woodruff will take for a 2-3 year contract. Then I would check in and see if the Soler market tanks enough for a 1-2 year deal. My ideal world would be 1 year deal and keep powder dry (and the DH spot open) to go all in on Soto and 1 of Burnes or Fried next year (maybe Buehler or a short term Wheeler deal also)

100% this.

 

[tims4wins]

You want to pay the nine year asking price for Snell? Give three reasons why that would be prudent.

1) It would make them better
2) By being better, it would draw in more fans / revenue
3) They might actually make the playoffs, thereby drawing in even more revenue and fans
4) It would make them more interesting to watch
5) They traded Sale, let Paxton walk, and only signed Giolito to replace them
6) It would move some of their arms that are better out of the pen... to the pen

 

[jbupstate]

Assuming Snell and Montgomery are out a $20m+ for term. Is the any benefit to signing Ryu and Clevinger ? Can they eat enough innings with a chance to exceed expectations? For less combined than Snell per year.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

1) It would make them better
2) By being better, it would draw in more fans / revenue
3) They might actually make the playoffs, thereby drawing in even more revenue and fans
4) It would make them more interesting to watch
5) They traded Sale, let Paxton walk, and only signed Giolito to replace them
6) It would move some of their arms that are better out of the pen... to the pen

Did you miss the "nine years" part? We're not talking 2024 in a bubble with his signing.

 

[tims4wins]

Did you miss the "nine years" part? We're not talking 2024 in a bubble with his signing.

Mookie is probably going to suck in 2030 too. So? You pay a premium for the prime years.

Edit: also, he's not going to get a 9 year deal. But I'd pay him 6/$200 in a heartbeat.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

Mookie is probably going to suck in 2030 too. So? You pay a premium for the prime years.

And when they're paying $30 million for his age 37-39 seasons, you'll be singing the same tune?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Mookie is probably going to suck in 2030 too. So? You pay a premium for the prime years.

Would that be for Montgomery and Snell both?

 

[tims4wins]

And when they're paying $30 million for his age 37-39 seasons, you'll be singing the same tune?

A) plenty of guys have pitched well at that age B) $30M in 2030 will be the equivalent of what, $20M today? C) if he pitches well for 4-5 years, who cares?

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

A) plenty of guys have pitched well at that age B) $30M in 2030 will be the equivalent of what, $20M today? C) if he pitches well for 4-5 years, who cares?

David Price was signed to a massive contract, pitched well for four years, and most of the fan base crucified him. I can assure you that people "will care" if the final years are a bust at over $30 million (your price), or even if he's mediocre. You're aware that he already turned down six years, yes?
You don't know what the market for starting pitchers will be in 2030. It's very possible that teams will stop paying a premium for 150 innings of a starter.

 

[tims4wins]

David Price was signed to a massive contract, pitched well for four years, and most of the fan base crucified him. I can assure you that people "will care" if the final years are a bust at over $30 million (your price), or even if he's mediocre. You're aware that he already turned down six years, yes?
You don't know what the market for starting pitchers will be in 2030. It's very possible that teams will stop paying a premium for 150 innings of a starter.

The fan base also crucified JD Drew. The fanbase, at large, is dumb. The fanbase hated Price because he sucked vs the MFY.

Edit: and yes am aware he turned down a 6 year deal. At $150M. I said I'd pay him more annually.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

1. Sign our needed RH bat - Duvall looks like the guy at this point.
2. Trade for Cabrera - Rafaela would be a good fit as discussed in offseason thread ( I think that was the thread)
3. Keep our trade chips we do have until we get closer to the AS break. If we are looking like a playoff team, we have pieces to address needs. By this time we may see what we Bailey and Breslow were able to do with some of our younger pitchers.
Just my thoughts...

 

[mraymond99]

Right now, I think the move I would make is: Keep waiting.

Later in the off season, the market contracts to less years or less $$ than expected for players. Link here to impact on Boras clients (Boras Clients Who Signed After January In Previous Offseasons - MLB Trade Rumors). Almost all went for less than projected.

It's clear that management likes the raw talent that they have in place. I do as well. It's also clear that they could use some innings eaters due to all the roster players they are "preparing" to start.

Keep waiting. See who becomes reasonable enough to add (Paxton, Monty, Ryu). If no one does, roll with what you have and pickup someone via trade if you are still in the hunt after May.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Just for something else to discuss....

There was an article today that the Astros are looking for a LHH OF with speed to share CF with Jake Meyers. Obviously that describes Jarren Duran quite well, so I was curious if there was anything to match up with in Houston for a trade.

They are all in on winning the next couple of years at least so getting anything from the major league team would be difficult. Unfortunately their farm system seems very bad, without a single top 100 prospect as far as I can tell. I know @Big Papi's Mango Salsa had mentioned Hunter Brown previously but I am not sure if they would even consider trading him since he projects as part of the big league rotation.

Does something like Duran + Houck or Crawford get it done? Would it be worth it? Is there something else interesting from Houston if Brown is not for sale?

Cross posting you from another thread @Jack Rabbit Slim, just since it might fit better in here.

Just want to say, I adore the idea of trying to find a way to make this work. Duran (ostensibly at least) fits because Meyers is one of those rare players that is a RHH (but LH throwing) player. Not a ton of those guys. Just a fun fact.

From my perspective on Houston, anything to pry away Hunter Brown made (at least to me) more sense when there was some indication that a) they didn't want to just plow through the luxury tax and b) they needed some more help at the back end of the bullpen, so c) the Sox could have fully paid for something like all of Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and Duran going to Houston while getting Brown and taking back Abreu's full salary (so that they could sign someone like Hoskins).

Unfortunately, they just negated all those things with their massive deal to Hader. That leaves them an incredibly strong bullpen and basically shows (to me at least) that the luxury tax threshold is of no concern to them this year.

Something to watch (at least a little) is if Brown were to struggle out of the gates this year. He struggled pretty mightily in the second half of last year (which isn't a huge surprise, happens to a lot of rookies after MLB players make the adjustment to them, kind of like Vaughn Grissom in 2023 for instance). IF he gets off to a bad start this year and Duran and Pivetta get off to good ones, could there maybe be a scenario where they'd entertain something like Duran, Pivetta (to replace Brown in their rotation) and a couple of really good but not ATM Machine level prospects - possibly.

With Hader on board, and them showing that the LTT is of no concern to them this year, I can't see a scenario where it'd make sense for them. At least without going too far down the "fantasy baseball" mindset (ie, Breslow being on the phone with Houston - and to just keep bidding - "Ok, Pivetta, Duran AND a fully paid Chris Martin doesn't do it, what if we add in Yorke? Ok, no, what if we add in Winckowski. Ok, no, what if we add in Bleis. Ok, no, what if, etc, etc.)

Don't get me wrong, I'd love it if that were happening - but I can't suggest it (seriously) in good conscience.

 

[sezwho]

I think you may be underestimating what the Sox lineup could be with Soler right in the middle of it, at Fenway, between Devers and Casas. .340 OBP last year i believe (which is the biggest reason i like him over Duvall). The Athletic projected his contract at 3yr/45m 2 and a half months ago, and he obviously hasn't received that from a team yet. He can DH a bunch but you could also hide him in LF at Fenway, especially if Rafaela is in CF a lot of those days. Lot's of potential OBP guys in Grissom, Devers, Casas, Soler, Yoshida and Abreu. Some speed in Duran, O'Neil and Ceddane as well. keep that line moving and make opposing pitcher throw a lot of pitches. That has always been what the Sox do best when they're at their best. Grab Ryu or Paxton to round out the rotation. Hope that the B's make a positive difference in all of their current pitchers. If you squint, you can see a pretty fun team that could compete for a WC.

There were good responses to this post, and I agree with @Big Papi's Mango Salsa that the lineup with or without Soler might be ok. At least it’s miles away from the problems in the rotation (probably?*).

However, I keep returning to the bolded. It would be so fun! If that makes me sound 8 then fine. It would also provide a seasoned RH power bat to build the bridge around. Side note, I suspect Bloom would have had fewer second thoughts about adding a guy to this lineup long term that couldn’t run or field if he were at least RH.

*I don’t see it but I hope Breslow is right and not joining the RedSox FO in setting the last of his integrity on fire.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

I'm not interested in giving either Snell or Montgomery a guaranteed contract for 6 years or longer, which is what I expect is what Boras is looking for (and why they're not signed yet). Snell may be more likely to get the longer deal, and is probably more likely to get $30m or more AAV. He has a higher upside, but I think he has a wider range of likely outcomes and makes me nervous with all the walks, so I'm not interested at that price.

But I would still be interested in Montgomery. Here's what I'd offer:

4/105 guaranteed, with an opt-out after 3 years. 5th year option at 27m which vests if 175ip in year 4 (player can opt out of option year, Would consider an additional similar vesting option for year 6. I'd also consider a bonus of 2-3m for top 5 in CY voting.

While I'm sure this offer doesn't get it done today, maybe there's a chance if no one out there is offering the 6 or 7 years guaranteed that Boras is looking for. I might be willing to go to 5 years guaranteed (for something like 125m) if that's what it takes, with the option for Year 6.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

How about Joey Votto? The Reds are saying they don’t plan to bring him back “as of now”. I can’t imagine he’d be very expensive. Solid clubhouse/veteran presence to help Casas progress. Can split time at 1B and DH. Not an everyday guy anymore, but (especially) if we’re going to run with some youngsters out there I’d imagine he would be a great influence. Wish he batted RH, but even still.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

How about Joey Votto? The Reds are saying they don’t plan to bring him back “as of now”. I can’t imagine he’d be very expensive. Solid clubhouse/veteran presence to help Casas progress. Can split time at 1B and DH. Not an everyday guy anymore, but (especially) if we’re going to run with some youngsters out there I’d imagine he would be a great influence. Wish he batted RH, but even still.

I think Votto is done. He's 40 years old and struggled most of last year with a bum shoulder. He had rotator cuff surgery last winter, didn't return until late June then went back on the IL in August with "left shoulder discomfort." Not sure what he can really bring that Justin Turner couldn't. If they're going to sign a 40 year old or near-40 year old, I'd rather they go with the RHH one who they're already familiar with.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The fan base also crucified JD Drew. The fanbase, at large, is dumb. The fanbase hated Price because he sucked vs the MFY.

Edit: and yes am aware he turned down a 6 year deal. At $150M. I said I'd pay him more annually.

The issue I have with your casualness of overpaying is a few things....
-- you're driving the going rate for flawed pitchers across the entire board
-- how many of these are you handing out? If it's just one overpay for years 4,5,6 or so that's fine. A team like the Sox can probably absorb one or two. They got Devers signed so that it might just be one or two years on the end when he's not productive in a ratio to his pay so I think getting another is fine... possibly two. But you're saying you want them to do it to both Snell and Montgomery? And then who else in the future? You want Soto next year? You want to pay him for 12 years and who cares if his last 5 years are garbage... but now he's on a roster with Snell, Montgomery, Devers all collectively pooping themselves and absorbing 1/4 total payroll? Again.... saying "it's not my money" is a total cop-out. You can't make demands of a team that you have zero vested interest in other than watching what transpires and being happy or sad about it (I mean, yeah, you can.... I wish it would stop being cold and rainy).

 

[tims4wins]

The issue I have with your casualness of overpaying is a few things....
-- you're driving the going rate for flawed pitchers across the entire board
-- how many of these are you handing out? If it's just one overpay for years 4,5,6 or so that's fine. A team like the Sox can probably absorb one or two. They got Devers signed so that it might just be one or two years on the end when he's not productive in a ratio to his pay so I think getting another is fine... possibly two. But you're saying you want them to do it to both Snell and Montgomery? And then who else in the future? You want Soto next year? You want to pay him for 12 years and who cares if his last 5 years are garbage... but now he's on a roster with Snell, Montgomery, Devers all collectively pooping themselves and absorbing 1/4 total payroll? Again.... saying "it's not my money" is a total cop-out. You can't make demands of a team that you have zero vested interest in other than watching what transpires and being happy or sad about it (I mean, yeah, you can.... I wish it would stop being cold and rainy).

I don't think they will compete for Soto. Load up on pitching. I think if you bump up the AAV high enough you can get these guys for 6 years, ideally less. Maybe it's not 6/$200 each. Maybe it's 5/$180 each. At some point they'll say yes.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

I don't think they will compete for Soto. Load up on pitching. I think if you bump up the AAV high enough you can get these guys for 6 years, ideally less. Maybe it's not 6/$200 each. Maybe it's 5/$180 each. At some point they'll say yes.

5/180 (36 AAV) is WAY too much for either of these guys. Snell might get 5/150 or 6/180 from someone, but I wouldn't go that high for him. I'd be surprised if Montgomery gets 30 AAV, unless it's on a shorter deal.

 

[tims4wins]

5/180 (36 AAV) is WAY too much for either of these guys. Snell might get 5/150 or 6/180 from someone, but I wouldn't go that high for him. I'd be surprised if Montgomery gets 30 AAV, unless it's on a shorter deal.

It's an overpay, there is no doubt about that. Snell was worth $32.8 and Montgomery $34.4 this year per FG. But the reason you overpay is to not have them on your books as long. And because they are free agents - by definition you almost have to overpay them.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

It's an overpay, there is no doubt about that. Snell was worth $32.8 and Montgomery $34.4 this year per FG. But the reason you overpay is to not have them on your books as long. And because they are free agents - by definition you almost have to overpay them.

It's raising the bar to a crazy amount for non top tier pitchers though. When guys with the flaws that both Montgomery and Snell have are commanding salaries higher than true aces (after they've gone through FA) it kinda screws the market up. What sort of extension would Bello be looking at? What's Burnes going to get? $45M per? And what would the Sox need to overpay to get him over that amount?