I'm going to move the goalposts a bit. I think the best comps for Tampa Bay are Portland and Montreal, in that the Rowdies are proposing expanding their existing Div 2 stadium instead of building a new one or moving to a larger existing stadium. (in addition, they are in a former minor league baseball stadium similar to Portland). Montreal averaged over 11,000 their last 7 seasons before MLS, and Portland had 8,500 the season before and 9,700 the season they were awarded an MLS franchise (and over 10k the next year, their last in Div 2).I think it depends. For the more marginal cases, having a really strong show of support in the lower divisions helps your case. It proves that the interest is there. It's a real boon to Cincinnati, for example. Overall, though, the correlation between lower-division and MLS attendance isn't there.
The top three in attendance in MLS next season could easily be Seattle, Atlanta, and Toronto. (Seattle and Atlanta look like locks for the top three, Orlando is going to fall out of the top three when they move into their new stadium, and Toronto could easily overtake NYCFC after their strong showing this season.)
Seattle, Atlanta, and Toronto all had NASL/USL clubs leading up to their entry into MLS and all three drew flies. Even the hallowed Seattle Sounders drew less than 3.5k in the USL in 2008. It didn't matter, though. If a city like St. Louis has deep-pocketed investors and can come up with a downtown stadium, it's going to happen even though Saint Louis FC draws a little less than 5k. And I bet they'd be pretty successful, too.
Rowdies attendance in St. Pete is increasing but it's still below 6,000 (I made a mistake earlier, the stadium currently seats closer to 7,500, thanks Tampa Bay Times). If it keeps progressing maybe they'll be in the running, but before then, I'd like to see them avg closer to a full house or maybe wait till some temporary extra seating is necessary. I'm not saying it won't work, I know a few Rowdies fans and they are really passionate about the team. I was a bit surprised how fervent the fans are since I've lived out of the area for a long time, but they need more of them
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