MLB batting averages - WTF?

SemperFidelisSox · Sep 1, 2014

Increase in shifts?

Average Reds · Sep 1, 2014

If PEDs have a role, I would think the crackdown on greenies would have more to do with this than steroids.

derekson · Sep 1, 2014

It's because of the increase in strikeouts.

In 2000, the MLB average K/9 was 6.53 (16.5% of PA). In 2014 it has risen all the way to 7.71 (20.3% of PA).

BABIP in 2000 was .300, in 2014 it's .298. Guys are still getting roughly the same number of hits when they put the ball in play, but they are striking out far more often.

derekson · Sep 1, 2014

SoxJox said:
Would you say this is a product of a general shift in mindset at the plate? Are the K's a product of batters trying to produce more power on a per-hit basis? Or is it more a product of general lack of plate discipline?

I think it's because of the pitchers actually. I think the shift in mindset of hitters really mainly happened nearly a decade ago, and while K rates rose it was nothing like the spike we've seen over the last few years. If you look at average fastball velocity it was also risen quite a lot. Meanwhile umpires are calling more low strikes than ever, and you get a situation where the advantage is swinging too far in favor of the pitchers. 2002 is the first year that Fangraphs has pitch type data for, and in that year the average fastball velocity was 89.9. In 2014 the average fastball velocity is 91.8.

Didn't see post #8 while typing this post up.

Julius.R · Sep 1, 2014

"One year I hit .291 and had to take a salary cut. If you hit .291 today, you own the franchise." ~ Enos Slaughter

I wonder if this has to do with better pitchers as well. After quickly looking both league ERA and FIP have gotten better over the past few years.

Sprowl · Sep 1, 2014

Key incremental changes in the last year have been the strike zone (bigger, per Farrell) and increased shift efficacy. Key incremental changes in the last decade have been the squeeze on PEDs and greenies.

Whatever the causes, I foresee a double secret emergency meeting of the rules committee to figure out how to juice up the game without juicing up the players. I predict a new, harder, lighter ball -- the Haitian Rocket 2015, co-sponsored by Titleist.

derekson · Sep 1, 2014

SoxJox said:
THAT is very interesting. I mean, that is a fairly significant jump on a league-average basis.

In the split-second decision making on a major league fastball, check 3rd strikes have got to play a part here.

It seems significant. Anyone have variance data on pitch velocities to do a 2-sample T test to test the significance of a 2 MPH jump?

mt8thsw9th · Sep 1, 2014

SoxJox said:
[SIZE=10pt]Unbelievably, there are only 16 guys in all of MLB right now that are batting over .300 (the fact that Ben Revere is one of them is even more astounding).[/SIZE]

Why is this astounding? His first two pro seasons were the only times he's batted below .300 in his pro career.

canderson · Sep 1, 2014

If someone could overlay the number of pitchers throwing 95+ for each season I think you'd have part of the answer.

Saints Rest · Sep 1, 2014

SoxJox said:
Would you say this is a product of a general shift in mindset at the plate? Are the K's a product of batters trying to produce more power on a per-hit basis (and missing as a consequence)? Or is it more a product of general lack of plate discipline?

What has happened over the period to OBP? (Maybe hitters are more interested in working the count, yielding more walks and strikeouts, depressing avg while balancing it out with higher OBP?" (Is there a stat like ISOp that notes the separation btw avg and OBP?)

Then to SoxJox point, what has happened to ISOp over that time? Is slg down because avg is down but the separation has increased due to better selectivity, yielding more XBHs?

Hee Sox Choi · Sep 1, 2014

I've noticed a lot of R-handed pitchers have good stats vs. Ls, which used to be rare. Now I see quite a few righties that shut down Ls. Could it be that more pitchers are throwing cutters which bore into the L batters? It seems like a lot of pitchers throw cutters now when before, it seemed to be a rarity. Just a theory, but I think it's a combo of possibly that and all of the above (shifts, no roids, no greenies, more specialists, more Joe Maddon (jk)).

gammoseditor · Sep 1, 2014

Sprowl said:
Key incremental changes in the last year have been the strike zone (bigger, per Farrell) and increased shift efficacy. Key incremental changes in the last decade have been the squeeze on PEDs and greenies.

Whatever the causes, I foresee a double secret emergency meeting of the rules committee to figure out how to juice up the game without juicing up the players. I predict a new, harder, lighter ball -- the Haitian Rocket 2015, co-sponsored by Titleist.

Yeah, it's these reasons. The only other factor I didn't see mentioned, unless I missed it, is starting pitchers throwing fewer innings. I think this is one reason velocity is up and TJ surgeries are up as well.

The only thing I disagree with is that I think MLB wants run scoring down to prove the steroid era is over.

JimBoSox9 · Sep 1, 2014

Sprowl said:
Key incremental changes in the last year have been the strike zone (bigger, per Farrell) and increased shift efficacy. Key incremental changes in the last decade have been the squeeze on PEDs and greenies.

Whatever the causes, I foresee a double secret emergency meeting of the rules committee to figure out how to juice up the game without juicing up the players. I predict a new, harder, lighter ball -- the Haitian Rocket 2015, co-sponsored by Titleist.

I think you nailed it, but if their solution is anything to increase batted ball velocity they're playing with fire.

derekson · Sep 1, 2014

SoxJox said:
Okay, so here's the tally so far:

Increase in shifts

Reduction in PEDS

Reduction in BABIP

Increase in average pitch speed

Depression of average vs. higher OBP

No clear explanation for the time being.

But if 1 (and 3) were true, we'd expect BABIP to be down. In 2000, league BABIP was .300. In 2014, it's .298. That is not a significant drop.

As for #5, that should be reflected in walk rates. In 2000, the MLB walk rate was 10.7% and in 2014 it is 8.7%, so this seems to be a factor.

I think we need to say the main factor is an increase in strikeouts, which we can partially attribute to increased fastball velocity. We also should look at changes in how umpires are calling the strike zone. Strike zone changes may have effects on both the increase in strike outs and decrease in walks. Additionally power seems to be down a bit, which may or may not be related to a reduction in PEDS.

Plympton91 · Sep 1, 2014

Is the strike zone demonstrably bigger? Just asking.

I think the quality of the pitching is a factor. I was astounded that no one offered Ervin Santana a contract similar to Ubaldo Jiminez last winter. Then you looked around and realized that before the injuries hit a bunch of teams, the contenders all had full rotations, even the mid and small markets.

It has been a long time since the last expansion teams entered, and during that time the international markets have supplied ever greater numbers of players, though the best ones seem to me to be disproportionately pitchers. I wonder if you did a regression with a variable of "time since last 2 expansion franchises entered" there'd be a steady decay of offense as the time increased. It's easier to hide bad hitters than bad pitchers.

Of course, with that as the standard, you'd then want to test something like "20 best pitchers xFIP" and check that there's no trend in that as well. As the top shouldn't be affected by expansion, or should even improve a bit, if my hypothesis were true.

Given the sample size, I'd bet that .298 vs. .300 is highly statistically significant, and it would be about 15 percent of the overall decline. Also, given that the stat on display is the number of .300 hitters, the overall decline in BABip isn't the most relevant stat. What you want to know is how has BABip changed for players who are routinely shifted against.

MakMan44 · Sep 1, 2014

I'm not nearly smart enough to compile the data for the strike zone sizes, but I do want to mention that Dave Cameron also mentioned that the umpires are trying to call a more consistent zone, which has the effect of being larger than in the past. I'll try to find the specific chat I saw it in later. For now, I agree. I think Sprowl nailed it.

EDIT: I may have misread him. He certainly says the zone is getting larger, and this might help with P91's question: http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-strike-zone-during-the-pitchfx-era/

radsoxfan · Sep 1, 2014

Is there some reason to focus on batting average?

Offense is down in general. It would be weird if for some reason batting averages weren't down given the general state of offense in baseball right now.

It's a very interesting discussion, and some of the theories brought forward I think are probably part of the reason for the offensive decline throughout baseball. It just seems odd to focus the discussion on batting average (if thats what's going on here), since it's a pretty poor marker of offensive production.

Are batting averages falling out of proportion to the decline in SLG and OBP or something?

Al Zarilla · Sep 1, 2014

1968 is scoffing at you. Yaz at .301 and no other ALer at or over .300. 5 NLers hit over .300. Then, they lowered the mound.

OttoC · Sep 1, 2014

Julius.R said:
"One year I hit .291 and had to take a salary cut. If you hit .291 today, you own the franchise." ~ Enos Slaughter
...

One year I hit .290 and finished second in the AL batting race." --Danny Cater, 1968

Some of it is just statistical fluctuation but there has been a change in batters' approaches at the plate and I strongly suspect that the pronounced prevalence of shifts has an impact. Going into today's games, there were only 43 players in the majors with at least 500 at bats this year, with the most being 572. The difference of one hit in 500 AB would cause a shift of two points in AVG (and ~1.75 points in 572 AB), so losing five hits to the shift could drop a player's average by nine or more points depending on his number of at bats.

edit: Al Zarilla was posting just before I did.

kieckeredinthehead · Sep 1, 2014

I've said this elsewhere, but BABIP is the same, but home run rates are down (2.6% last year to 2.3% this year). So there are more hard hit balls in play, and yet batting average on balls in play remains the same. Last year, batters hit doubles or triples 4.8% of the time. This year, they're at 4.9%. No doubt some of those home runs have been turned into doubles or triples. But that doesn't account for the total difference. Defensive alignments are more than just the obvious infield shifts. Teams are putting outfielders in more precise locations.

Still, this is almost all about the increase in K rates, which can singlehandedly explain the drop in BA and OBP.

derekson · Sep 1, 2014

Al Zarilla said:
1968 is scoffing at you. Yaz at .301 and no other ALer at or over .300. 5 NLers hit over .300. Then, they lowered the mound.

I think what they need to do now to counter the increased velocity is move the mound back a few feet.

You could lower the mound more I guess, but I think there are probably diminishing returns there and I think increasing the distance between mound and plate would better counter one of the biggest specific issues that has depressed offense in MLB.

Toe Nash · Sep 1, 2014

We discussed this and posted data and theories and stuff a few months ago: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/84334-offense-in-mlb-what-has-happened/

ForceAtHome · Sep 2, 2014

SoxJox said:
[SIZE=10pt]2014 .336 Jose Altuve[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]2013 .348 Miguel Cabrera[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]2012 .336 Buster Posey[/SIZE]

Melky Cabrera technically batted .346 in 2012 (even if you tack on an 0-1 to reach 502 PA, it remains the same), though he was "disqualified" from winning the batting title.

cannonball 1729 · Sep 2, 2014

derekson said:
It seems significant. Anyone have variance data on pitch velocities to do a 2-sample T test to test the significance of a 2 MPH jump?

If you're taking averages involving tens (or possibly hundreds) of thousands of observations, the only way a 2 MPH difference could be insignificant would be if the standard deviation were well over 100 mph, which is clearly not the case.

SoxJox said:
OK. Perhaps a bit of hyperbole. That he is not a household name diluted his otherwise "spectacular" average of .305 in 2013 and current .308 average. He's pulling the curve down.

The larger point was: if you were going to predict that only 16 players would be above .300 at the moment, would the name Ben Revere have been on the tip of your tongue?

Revere's a funny one: when he was picked by the Twins in the first round (#28 in the draft, IIRC), everyone thought it was a huge reach - no one else had him in the top 50, and I'm not even sure that many teams had him in the top 200. Turns out the Twins were right. It was like the Jeremy Brown pick except actually smart.

Spacemans Bong · Sep 2, 2014

Ben Revere's a one win player. Let's not go crazy.

Snodgrass'Muff · Sep 2, 2014

Revere is actually closer to a 2 win player when you look at a more stable sample size. If the season ended today and you combined the last three years you'd get 5.2 war which is a touch over 1.7 per year. Since defensive stats take 3 seasons to stabilize, that's about the shortest span of seasons I'd be comfortable using to make any declarative statements about him with.

Spacemans Bong · Sep 2, 2014

Mea culpa, I misread Fangraphs. Though BB-Ref hates, hates, his defense.

Apisith · Sep 2, 2014

They need to call a smaller zone; automate it, then adjust.

O Captain! My Captain! · Sep 2, 2014

Is everybody striking out more, or are the more strikeout prone players having an outsized effect on the average? Or is it that even the least strikeout-prone players are striking out more?

hbk72777 · Sep 2, 2014

This is revenge for 1987

ivanvamp · Sep 2, 2014

Julius.R said:
"One year I hit .291 and had to take a salary cut. If you hit .291 today, you own the franchise." ~ Enos Slaughter

I wonder if this has to do with better pitchers as well. After quickly looking both league ERA and FIP have gotten better over the past few years.

The FIP is due, I think, to the same reason that batting averages have gone down while BABIP has remained steady: strikeouts.

I know that the line of thinking (even at SOSH) has been that strikeouts are really not that big of a deal compared to other outs, but the reality is that if you put the bat on the ball, yes, you can hit into double plays, but it also puts pressure on the defense. All things being equal, I'd much rather have players who tend to not strike out very much, even if they tend to hit the ball at defenders, over guys who strike out a ton.

I think the greater bullpen specialization and, especially, the sheer number of ridiculously hard-throwing and talented relief pitchers, are both contributing to the greater strikeout numbers.

From espn's stat database, compare 2002 (the first year they have these stats) to 2014 (all MLB):

Starter k/9
2002: 6.18
2014: 7.33 - up 1.15

Reliever k/9
2002: 7.18
2014: 8.46 - up 1.28

So starters have increased their k/9 by a greater percentage (18.6% to 17.8%), but relievers have increased their k/9 by a greater raw number. And I think the greater raw number is the more important stat here.

For example, if Jones struck out 1 guy per 9 innings in 2013, but went up to 2 guys per 9 innings in 2014, that's a raw increase of 1 guy per 9, but a 100% increase from 2013. Meanwhile, Smith struck out 8 guys per 9 innings in 2013, but went up to 10 guys per 9 innings in 2014, that's a raw increase of 2 guys per 9, but only a 25% increase from 2013.

snowmanny · Sep 2, 2014

ForceAtHome said:
Melky Cabrera technically batted .346 in 2012 (even if you tack on an 0-1 to reach 502 PA, it
remains the same), though he was "disqualified" from winning the batting title.

Thank you.
So ridiculous.

Mighty Joe Young · Sep 3, 2014

Has this decline in offense been evident in the minor leagues as well? If it has then the amphetamines ban is probably the main culprit.

HriniakPosterChild · Sep 4, 2014

BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Has this decline in offense been evident in the minor leagues as well? If it has then the amphetamines ban is probably the main culprit.

Greenies only helped hitters? Not pitchers, too?

(And not everyday players when playing defense, only at the plate?)

JimBoSox9 · Sep 4, 2014

Papelbon's Poutine said:
While BC made a lazy point, greenies would obviously help hitters more since they play everyday, while pitchers do not. The point of greenies being to keep you up, that makes a big difference.

I'm not arguing the nuances of that, simply the bigger picture.

I agree with you in general - individuals can vary but if you zoom all the way out, greenies are going to have more of an impact on the position players. However, there's an interesting exception. IIRC Jim Bouton, pitching from the bullpen, led off a chapter with "Aren't greenies the greatest?". I find it strange that the greenies ban has coincided with the rise of the power bullpen arm becoming copious across the league.

Mighty Joe Young · Sep 4, 2014

JimBoSox9 said:
I agree with you in general - individuals can vary but if you zoom all the way out, greenies are going to have more of an impact on the position players. However, there's an interesting exception. IIRC Jim Bouton, pitching from the bullpen, led off a chapter with "Aren't greenies the greatest?". I find it strange that the greenies ban has coincided with the rise of the power bullpen arm becoming copious across the league.

I think the scouting emphasis on radar guns is more responsible for that than anything else.

I agree that it was a lazy point but the it really is a big picture discussion. And the ban was an obvious , real event - not some nebulous theory. One really would think that greenies should help everyday players more than pitchers. Even if a pitcher tires a bit earlier - say after 100 pitches than 110 then they still have the bullpen to pick them up. Position players don't have that luxury.

JimBoSox9 · Sep 4, 2014

I wasn't calling anyone lazy. It's just an anomaly against what you'd expect removing greenies to do that I find interesting. I think you're right that it's explained pretty simply by other variables carrying more weight on the specific point.

Night of the Keyboard · Sep 4, 2014

People have been discussing the current level of offense as if it was some kind of terminal disease, but I still enjoy watching games. Is a 10-9 game significantly more enjoyable than a 3-2 game? Also, more runs mean more blowouts. Unless the offense starts approaching 1968 levels it's a non-issue for me.

jose melendez · Sep 4, 2014

The Atlantic has a piece arguing that the strike zone has gotten more accurate (larger) as a result of pitch f/x

Hagios · Sep 5, 2014

jose melendez said:
The Atlantic has a piece arguing that the strike zone has gotten more accurate (larger) as a result of pitch f/x

I was going to post that article and noticed that this thread would be a great fit for it. Excellent read.

One of the interesting points is that the lower strikezone only accounts for about 33-40% of the offensive decline. What explains the rest? The article only hints at the other factors, such as the increased use of hard-throwing middle relievers.

Spacemans Bong · Sep 5, 2014

Night of the Keyboard said:
People have been discussing the current level of offense as if it was some kind of terminal disease, but I still enjoy watching games. Is a 10-9 game significantly more enjoyable than a 3-2 game? Also, more runs mean more blowouts. Unless the offense starts approaching 1968 levels it's a non-issue for me.

It depends on who you talk to, but for me what I don't like are all the strikeouts and the low batting averages. Everything else is cool.

Edit: Also, has anybody figured out why so many bullpen guys throw hard now? The Nasty Boys were almost 25 years ago now, it's not like people only clued in a few years ago that hard throwing bullpen arms are a good thing.

MLB batting averages - WTF?

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