Mike, Sam, Will & Friends: Talking 2014 Linebacking Crew

Super Nomario · Apr 29, 2014

SeoulSoxFan said:
Is it then safe to assume that a athletic coverage/pass rush linebacker is also in play -- doubling up with Collins in selecting someone like Van Noy?

Related to various draft threads, but Kyle Van Noy enjoys two very encouraging projections, the Pass Defense Rate of 0.46 (compared to the ridiculous Kalil Mack's 0.52) and SackSEER rate of 71%.

I'll tell you what, two physical corners (Revis/Browner) + two FS (McD/Ryan) + two rangy rush/coverage LBs (Collins/Van Noy) will go a hell of a long way towards getting Pats out of this -- per PatsPropaganda.com:

Don't you already have your nickel LB tandem in Mayo and Collins? Are you going to bench Mayo on third down?

Devizier · Apr 29, 2014

Super Nomario said:
Don't you already have your nickel LB tandem in Mayo and Collins? Are you going to bench Mayo on third down?

Mayo suffered a pretty catastrophic injury last year. I'm hopeful, but I'll be reading between the lines on what the Patriots do with their draft pick. In other words, let's hope they don't go high with a linebacker.

Super Nomario · Apr 29, 2014

Devizier said:
Mayo suffered a pretty catastrophic injury last year. I'm hopeful, but I'll be reading between the lines on what the Patriots do with their draft pick. In other words, let's hope they don't go high with a linebacker.

He's been reportedly training with Ninkovich pretty hard. I remember there was some speculation at the time of the injury (before he went on IR) that normal recovery time might have him back for the end of the playoffs. I'd expect he'd be 100% for camp.

RedOctober3829 · Apr 29, 2014

Van Noy or Shazier would be great options to pick at 29 if both are there. They absolutely do need to add speed to the LB corps even with Collins.

Super Nomario · Apr 29, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
Van Noy or Shazier would be great options to pick at 29 if both are there. They absolutely do need to add speed to the LB corps even with Collins.

Where do you play everyone then? 70% of the time they played 2 LB or fewer last year; what are you going to do with a 4th?

bakahump · Apr 29, 2014

Isnt that the point SN?

That you keep all 3 (Coll/Mayo/"Van Shaz") on the field all the time.

Your able to do this because Coll and "Van Shaz" can match up with TEs and even Pass catching RBs. They "flex" between being BIG safetys and LBs ....and occasional blitzers.

You use Logan Ryan as a "flex" between Slot and Safety

Browner, Revis and Mccourty stay at CB and the other Safety.

You stay with 4 DL for the pass rush/run def (obviously rotating them as much as you can).

I think the big question is whither Hightower? Is his role Goalline LB/Occasional Pass rushing DE/ Backup depth?

Stitch01 · Apr 29, 2014

Not sure what directions the Pats should go with their pick, but a late first round rookie LB is likely going to be playing sparingly at the beginning of the season, the chances are pretty good someone will be injured later in the season, there's minimal roster depth at the position, and having Mayo as an anchor with scheme/matchup dependent PT with Hightower/Collins/draft pick sounds fine by me. I'm not really worried about where to play everyone.

Its possible Hightower can line up as a DL some in passing situations and, while he's shown flashes and the coaching staff admitted they put him in tough spots last year, Im not yet sure he's an above average every down player so if he gets beaten out that's fine.

RedOctober3829 · Apr 29, 2014

Super Nomario said:
Where do you play everyone then? 70% of the time they played 2 LB or fewer last year; what are you going to do with a 4th?

You can line up one of those linebackers on the edge in a NASCAR-type of setup on 3rd down. Take Wilfork out and have a line of LB/Kelly/Chandler Jones/Nink. Creating more havoc on the QB is something they need to do a better job of and this would be a way to do it.

Shelterdog · Apr 29, 2014

Stitch01 said:
Not sure what directions the Pats should go with their pick, but a late first round rookie LB is likely going to be playing sparingly at the beginning of the season, the chances are pretty good someone will be injured later in the season, there's minimal roster depth at the position, and having Mayo as an anchor with scheme/matchup dependent PT with Hightower/Collins/draft pick sounds fine by me. I'm not really worried about where to play everyone.

Its possible Hightower can line up as a DL some in passing situations and, while he's shown flashes and the coaching staff admitted they put him in tough spots last year, Im not yet sure he's an above average every down player so if he gets beaten out that's fine.

I'm not a big advocate of using the first on a linebacker but if you had Mayo/Collins/Shazier I'll bet you'd play an awful lot more 3 LB packages in possible passing situations than you did last year with Spikes/Hightower/Collins or Fletcher

MainerInExile · Apr 29, 2014

Shelterdog said:
I'm not a big advocate of using the first on a linebacker but if you had Mayo/Collins/Shazier I'll bet you'd play an awful lot more 3 LB packages in possible passing situations than you did last year with Spikes/Hightower/Collins or Fletcher

Sure, you'd be more likely to play a base against, say, a 2TE offense. But you'd still go nickel against 3WR, which means you're still taking a LB off the field a lot.

bradmahn · Apr 29, 2014

MainerInExile said:
Sure, you'd be more likely to play a base against, say, a 2TE offense. But you'd still go nickel against 3WR, which means you're still taking a LB off the field a lot.

They could, theoretically, play a 3-3-5 nickel defense as well, especially if Collins allows for more blitzing out of that 3rd LB spot.

MainerInExile · Apr 29, 2014

bradmahn said:
They could, theoretically, play a 3-3-5 nickel defense as well, especially if Collins allows for more blitzing out of that 3rd LB spot.

Fair enough. Hightower and Collins do both have experience rushing the passer, and it would certainly make some unpredictability about who the 4th rusher would be.

bakahump · Apr 30, 2014

MainerInExile said:
Fair enough. Hightower and Collins do both have experience rushing the passer, and it would certainly make some unpredictability about who the 4th rusher would be.

Hightower or LBer to be Drafted.

I think thats why Van Noy (and to a lesser extent Shazier) are rumored.

A VN Mayo Collins gives you 3 guys who can cover, tackle and rush.

Hightower has occasionally shown the ability to do 1.5 of those things.

a 3-3-5 defense gives you the defense equivalent of the 2 TE (Gronk+Someone) "queen of the chess board" Offense. it (should) allow you to Stop the run (with a strong fast front 6) while also allowing you to take the passing game away (by rushing 4) and covering with 6 while still allowing Mayo to roam around.

We then dont care if Denver/someone goes hurry up. We match up either way.

Super Nomario · Apr 30, 2014

bakahump said:
Isnt that the point SN?

That you keep all 3 (Coll/Mayo/"Van Shaz") on the field all the time.

Your able to do this because Coll and "Van Shaz" can match up with TEs and even Pass catching RBs. They "flex" between being BIG safetys and LBs ....and occasional blitzers.

You use Logan Ryan as a "flex" between Slot and Safety

Browner, Revis and Mccourty stay at CB and the other Safety.

You stay with 4 DL for the pass rush/run def (obviously rotating them as much as you can).

They ran a 3 CB / 1 S (which is basically what this would be against 3 WR) D at times last year (against Buffalo for instance) when they wanted to be able to defend the run out of the nickel, but I'm skeptical this is an everydown defense. It's pretty limiting in terms of coverage shells, as you can only really play 1-high safety looks unless you put a LB on the slot receiver.

bakahump said:
I think the big question is whither Hightower? Is his role Goalline LB/Occasional Pass rushing DE/ Backup depth?

Yes, this is a big question.

RedOctober3829 said:
You can line up one of those linebackers on the edge in a NASCAR-type of setup on 3rd down. Take Wilfork out and have a line of LB/Kelly/Chandler Jones/Nink. Creating more havoc on the QB is something they need to do a better job of and this would be a way to do it.

Sure, but that's not an everydown defense.

bradmahn said:
They could, theoretically, play a 3-3-5 nickel defense as well, especially if Collins allows for more blitzing out of that 3rd LB spot.

Who are the first 3? If it's Jones - WIlfork / Kelly - Ninkovich, that's a really small front, basically tantamount to the NASCAR front RO describes above.

Basically, you can do a variety of things to get 3 LBs on the field in nickel, but they look to me to be situational lineups and not every-down. That means you're reducing somebody - Hightower, one of the other LB, or Ninkovich - to a situational player, and that seems like a poor use of personnel.

The other reality is that they can do all of these looks without adding additional personnel. They can run a 3 CB / 1 S with existing personnel. They can take off a DT in nickel and move Hightower or Collins up to DE today. If they really want to add flexibility, I see two improvements that would be much more impactful than adding another LB - adding a big S who can jump between deep safety and a LB-type role (allowing for switching between 1- and 2- deep shells), or a 3-4DE / 4-3 DT type who can let them switch between even and odd fronts without compromising the run D.

RedOctober3829 · Apr 30, 2014

No, it's not an everydown defense. I agree with your assessment that the defense needs a hybrid safety/LB and a versatile DL who can play both fronts. But, if they got a Van Noy or a Shazier they could use their strengths to improve the pass rush. Hell, I hope they can grab 2 of these in the first 2 rounds(say, Tuitt and Van Noy) and they can really get creative.

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) · Apr 30, 2014

Super Nomario said:
The other reality is that they can do all of these looks without adding additional personnel. They can run a 3 CB / 1 S with existing personnel. They can take off a DT in nickel and move Hightower or Collins up to DE today. If they really want to add flexibility, I see two improvements that would be much more impactful than adding another LB - adding a big S who can jump between deep safety and a LB-type role (allowing for switching between 1- and 2- deep shells), or a 3-4DE / 4-3 DT type who can let them switch between even and odd fronts without compromising the run D.

Shazier is 6'1, 237 lbs and runs a 4.3. I dooubt you want him playing a deep half of the field consistently, but couldn't you get some unique zone coverages with a CB taking one deep half, the safety another and a LB of Shazier's size and speed filling in some of the non-deep half zones? Especially if Revis is as advertised?

I guess I'm saying is do you think the distinction between "Big Safety that can play a LB type role" and "Small, fast LBer that can play a Safety Type role" really that far apart?

RedOctober3829 · Apr 30, 2014

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
Shazier is 6'1, 237 lbs and runs a 4.3. I dooubt you want him playing a deep half of the field consistently, but couldn't you get some unique zone coverages with a CB taking one deep half, the safety another and a LB of Shazier's size and speed filling in some of the non-deep half zones? Especially if Revis is as advertised?

I guess I'm saying is do you think the distinction between "Big Safety that can play a LB type role" and "Small, fast LBer that can play a Safety Type role" really that far apart?

I think this is what is behind the talk of moving Logan Ryan to FS. Ryan and McCourty splitting halves of the field with a coverage LB getting the intermediate drop zone. Ultimately, I think they'll be a primarily a man-coverage team this season given the personnel on hand but occasional zones could look something like that.

The distinctions aren't that far off. Most safety types aren't big enough to cover the bigger TEs while the smaller LB types usually aren't fast enough. I think Shazier would be an ideal guy for that coverage role because of his unique size and speed. The beauty of it is he is big enough to be used as a rusher and fast/agile enough to be used effectively in coverage. We haven't had a player like that pan out in a long time. Collins is starting to blossom into that guy, but another option for depth and to make the team better would be much-needed.

Super Nomario · Apr 30, 2014

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
Shazier is 6'1, 237 lbs and runs a 4.3. I dooubt you want him playing a deep half of the field consistently, but couldn't you get some unique zone coverages with a CB taking one deep half, the safety another and a LB of Shazier's size and speed filling in some of the non-deep half zones? Especially if Revis is as advertised?

Which CB do you want covering deep? That's kind of a waste of Revis, Browner, or Dennard, if they could even do it, so you're putting Ryan there, probably. Now who's covering the slot receiver? If the answer's Arrington or Dennard, now you're running a dime defense (taking another front 7 player off the field), and if the answer's a LB, it's hard for me to see that as better than just putting a safety at safety and putting a slot CB on the slot WR.

And the 4.3 40 thing should be taken with a grain of salt. No doubt Shazier's really fast, but there's a reason he didn't run at the Combine - he knew running at Ohio State's notoriously fast-track would produce an eye-popping speed. If he a 4.45 or 4.5 40, would people be talking about him the same?

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
I guess I'm saying is do you think the distinction between "Big Safety that can play a LB type role" and "Small, fast LBer that can play a Safety Type role" really that far apart?

Yes, unless Shazier can play deep safety in a cover-2.

bakahump · Apr 30, 2014

We cant look at this (LBs) in a vacuum either.

Revis WILL lock down his half of the field. That allows Mccourty to focus on the Back half (quarter basically) as he shades over the other CB.
You then need a slot guy. After that the personnel you have in coverage is gravy. With maybe one of the Freak LBs on the TE.

I know I will shock you all by proclaiming now that Revis will do amazing things for this defense.

My point is that with Revis I think you can get by with 1 deep safety....especially one as good as Mccourty.

Could we see something with Mccourty in a zone shading over Brown-Nerd. Revis locked up man, Brown-Nerd locked up man. You then have the other of Brown-Nerd (or Arrington) and Ryan... Along with Mayo and Collins playing an underneath Zone to take away the Slot, Backs and TEs.

Still leaving 3 DL and a Rush LB to get after the Qb.

Klostrophobic · Apr 30, 2014

SeoulSoxFan said:
Related to various draft threads, but Kyle Van Noy enjoys two very encouraging projections, the Pass Defense Rate of 0.46 (compared to the ridiculous Kalil Mack's 0.52) and SackSEER rate of 71%

I did some cursory googling but couldn't answer this: are these numbers publicly available? I know FO puts out sackSEER, but I've never seen the pass defense rate. Sounds interesting.

EDIT: nevermind, it's listed in the sackSEER projections as PD/rate.

Super Nomario · Apr 30, 2014

Klostrophobic said:
I did some cursory googling but couldn't answer this: are these numbers publicly available? I know FO puts out sackSEER, but I've never seen the pass defense rate. Sounds interesting.

EDIT: nevermind, it's listed in the sackSEER projections as PD/rate.

This seems like a statistical quirk more than anything when it comes to Van Noy. For most pass rushers, PDs happen when they swat down passes at the line of scrimmage (think J.J. Watt), but Van Noy is a true 3-4 OLB who drops in coverage frequently.

dbn · May 1, 2014

Not much in this Reiss post beyond "sure, I could rush the passer", but since we're discussing Hightower's role I thought I'd share.

Eric Ampersand · May 1, 2014

Super Nomario said:
And the 4.3 40 thing should be taken with a grain of salt. No doubt Shazier's really fast, but there's a reason he didn't run at the Combine - he knew running at Ohio State's notoriously fast-track would produce an eye-popping speed. If he a 4.45 or 4.5 40, would people be talking about him the same?

[SIZE=12.222222328186035px]Absolutely. Shazier ran as well as Justin Gilbert. Does anyone really think Shazier has the deep speed of a corner? It would be wiser to assume he runs a tenth or more slower. That would put him in the same ballpark as the other "coverage" LBs who will likely be much cheaper. [/SIZE]

Phragle · May 2, 2014

Rookies in Focus Jamie Collins

Super Nomario · Jun 6, 2014

Browns cut Quentin Groves:
Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 10m
The #Browns have released edge rusher Quentin Groves, source says. He’s healthy & had 6 sacks over the last 21 game. Core special teamer

More of a 3-4 OLB. He seems like he'd be a good fit for edge rush depth, some off-the-ball LB depth, and special teams. He was a guy Lombardi brought in in Cleveland.

ivanvamp · Jun 6, 2014

Adding him to the Anderson pickup would, if nothing else, greatly improve the depth in the LB corps.

Super Nomario · Jun 6, 2014

SeoulSoxFan said:
The Lombardi connection makes it an easy addition. Coming out of the draft, Schefter wasn't too impressed however:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/threads/schefter-groves-will-be-biggest-bust-in-the-draft.81502/

P.S. Added bonus: seeing Gholston on that list

As a second-round pick who has 8.5 career sacks (and just 2.5 for Jacksonville, who gave up on him after 2 seasons), he is a draft bust for sure. But that doesn't mean he'd be useless for us playing special teams and as front-seven depth for the veteran minimum.

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Jun 12, 2014

According to Rotoworld, Groves visited the Pats on Wednesday. Seeing how they just signed another WR with an open spot on the roster I'm assuming this means he won't be signing here.

Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Super Nomario · Jun 12, 2014

Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
According to Rotoworld, Groves visited the Pats on Wednesday. Seeing how they just signed another WR with an open spot on the roster I'm assuming this means he won't be signing here.

Nah, they churn the back end of the roster all the time. They can just cut Wilson Van Hooser or Deontae Skinner or Daxton Swanson or any of a dozen other guys. They very well might not sign Groves, but it won't be because they don't have a roster spot for him.

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Jun 12, 2014

Super Nomario said:
Nah, they churn the back end of the roster all the time. They can just cut Wilson Van Hooser or Deontae Skinner or Daxton Swanson or any of a dozen other guys. They very well might not sign Groves, but it won't be because they don't have a roster spot for him.

That's true. I guess it's more the fact that if they really wanted him they might have tried to prevent him from going to visit Washington.

mascho · Jul 7, 2014

NFL.com is doing a series of the 25 players expected to break out in '14-'15.

Number 5 is Jamie Collins. Contains a great opening line:

Jamie Collins is a cornerback trapped in a 250-pound body.

Mike, Sam, Will & Friends: Talking 2014 Linebacking Crew

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