steveluck7 said:
Hilarious. Ovechkin, and his 68 points, is -31 for the season. The Caps have only been outscored by 6 goals on the season
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/03/17/alex-ovechkins-plus-minus-rating-is-getting-a-bit-ridiculous/
This is a terrible article for so many reasons.
And when you’ve scored 26 goals at even strength and you’re still rocking a minus-31, you’re doing something wrong. You’re doing a whole bunch of things wrong. And to be doing so many things wrong while doing so many other things right is hard to believe.
Yes, Ovechkin has 26 even strength goals which is a huge number. But there's a reason the author didn't mention his even strength points. That's because he's still on single digit assists at even strength. His linemates have scored next to nothing for him. Backstrom has just 8 even strength goals and his two most frequent left wing mates have produced nothing 5-on-5. Marcus Johansson has 2 goals and Martin Erat had 0 in that situation which is a large reason why he's no longer on the Caps. When you consider the paltry assist numbers in addition to the gaudy goal totals, Ovechkin has 35 even strength points this year. That's the same number as Chris Higgins. That's two more than Michael Frolik. There's 52 other players in the league with as many or more even strength points. It's silly to think of Ovechkin as scoring at some great pace when it's a level surface. He's not. He's been a solid but unremarkable point producer at even strength this year, with excellent goal totals and atrocious assist numbers.
But Ovechkin? He’s on a team that sits just two points outside of a playoff spot, and he’s on pace to score 53 goals.
Again, how many even strength points? There's over 50 guys on pace or better with him this season...
Also, Washington as a team isn't that good. The author alludes to Washington being a solid team multiple times, but they are not. Look at their ROW. It's a mediocre team who I am hoping will hot with stellar goalie play (as you all know Holtby can and I know Halak can) and a streak good fortune. But realistically, the Caps are closer to the worst team in the league than the best. In the very plausible scenario that Washington goes 0-for their next 5 (ANA, SJ, LAK, LAK, BOS), they'll enter total tank mode and I hope they can slip down to a top-6/7 pick before the lottery. If they can manage a few wins in this tough stretch, more power to them and it'll give them a needed boost towards having a chance at the playoffs, but they need a lot of help the rest of the way. They have not shown me that they are very good. This is probably the worst Caps team since 2007.
The only comparable that comes to mind from recent years is Phil Kessel’s 2010-11 season, his second in Toronto, when he scored 32 goals (20 at even strength) and added 32 assists (21 at even strength) but still managed to finish with a minus-20 rating, which ranked him as the 875th-best player in the NHL in that regard. But that Maple Leafs team was pretty bad, finishing with a 37-34-11 record while being outscored 251-218.
It's laughable that the author excuses Kessel's number due to Toronto as a bad team but criticizes Ovechkin for Washington being a solid team. The Leafs recorded 85 points that season. Washington is on pace for 88 points, and it's largely fueled by good luck in the shootout. The Caps are 25th in the NHL in regulation/OT wins. Only Buffalo, Florida, NYI, Edmonton, and Calgary are worse. That's the dregs of the league. To further illustrate, Toronto was -11 in goals at even strength that season while Washington is already -15.
Marty St. Louis put up 83 points with a -23 one year. Mario Lemieux scored 91 points in 67 games and was a -25. Ray Whitney managed a -26 with 76 points. Heck, Wayne Gretzky scored 130 points and finished -25 (as noted). It happens.
For a look at the opposite end of the scale, Milan Hejduk led the league with 50 goals in 2002-03, and he finished with a plus-52 rating. That was for a stacked Avalanche team, though.
You know who else put up eerily similar numbers to that? Alex Ovechkin, who scored 50 goals and was a +45 (2nd the NHL) in 2009-10. Notorious two-way stud Jeff Schultz was a league-leading +50 that season.
The author very directly references Ovechkin having a lack of effort as though that's responsible for the numbers. If you base that off his -31 rating this year, does that mean you praise him for for his +45 rating a few years ago? Is he really trying less this year or have his skills eroded to the point of a 76 +/- goal swing?
Ovechkin is a bit of a victim due to the minutes he plays. He spends such a significant portion of his time on the powerplay. He averages 5:07 PPTOI/game, which is far and away the most in the NHL. Overall, that's about a quarter of his ice time during which, despite league leading production, he can only be a negative by definition. Even though he leads the league in PPG and is second to only linemate Nick Backstrom in PPP, he's a -7 on the powerplay. The Caps have given up 8 SHG this season, and Ovechkin has been on the ice for 7 of them since he's pretty much always out there.
Further, since the Caps aren't actually that good and rarely win in regulation, Ovechkin has suffered a bit due to empty netters. The Caps have allowed 5 this year, and as you'd guess, Ovechkin has been on the ice for all 5. He has been on the ice for just 2 Caps ENGs, giving him a -10 deficit from the PP and empty netters alone.
Ovechkin's defensive game and effort aren't different this year, especially compared to last season when he was in the same system and a positive +/- player. The bigger difference between the +45 Ovechkin of 2010, the +2 Ovechkin of last year, and -31 Ovechkin of this season is simply how good the Caps and his surroundings are. A combination of even strength poor luck, sometimes poor play (not due to lack of effort), a big swing in empty net goals going from a positive to a negative as a team, and allowing a lot of shorties are the major culprits.
You want a really ridiculous stat? Alex Ovechkin has been on the ice at 5-on-5 for 35 goals. He has 35 even strength points. For comparison, Patrice Bergeron has 36 even strength points, but he's been on the ice for 51 5-on-5 goals. Ovechkin's linemates literally cannot seem to score this year unless he factors.
It's also worth noting, since a lot of people seem to forget, that Ovechkin has been on the ice for more Caps goals scored than against this year. He's a +45 on at 5-on-4 this season, which is just staggering. David Krejci, the top Bruin at 5-on-4, is +20. Put another way, Ovechkin has been on the ice for 50 5-on-4 goals this year. That's more goals than every other team in the NHL except for the Pens (55) have total on the powerplay. Despite Ovechkin and his linemates' struggles at even strength, there's no question Ovechkin has been extremely valuable and hugely positive contributor this year.