Luis Urías to the Mariners for RHP Isaiah Campbell

Fishy1

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I wonder if they’re committing to some version of Rafaela at 2B?
we have like 863 middle infield prospects and if they were banking on Urias’ skill set to be anywhere near regular playing time then that represented the most fungible innings of anyone on the roster.
I like this trade for both sides.

On paper, I think that arb2 Urias — even after a rough year — is worth more than rookie eligibility Campbell. So for the Mariners, betting on a Urias’ return to form is a good bit of business, especially since I think the incumbents might be the corpse of Kolten Wong and some utility types.

For Boston, they just need more stability (especially on defense) at the position. Reyes gives us a decent floor, Rafaela is tempting for ceiling, and one infers that we may be looking outside the org for a target with more two-way potential to be the main guy at the position. Urias’ possibility of bounce back didn’t add a lot to this picture.

And it’s always helpful to have RP with options hanging around.
Yeah, all of this adds up to me. Some mix of Rafaela getting part-time work against left-handers in center and at 2B while he figures out major league pitching while Valdez takes on the right-handed pitching would be fine with me. Valdez is no great shakes at 2B, but I have hopes he can improve to be average-ish. I also think the defense will be much better next year with Story at SS and Rafaela playing some centerfield, so I'm not as worried as I was about defense being an issue.
 

YTF

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Yeah, all of this adds up to me. Some mix of Rafaela getting part-time work against left-handers in center and at 2B while he figures out major league pitching while Valdez takes on the right-handed pitching would be fine with me. Valdez is no great shakes at 2B, but I have hopes he can improve to be average-ish. I also think the defense will be much better next year with Story at SS and Rafaela playing some centerfield, so I'm not as worried as I was about defense being an issue.
IIRC, Dustin Pedroia was one of the guys who were brought in to give an opinion prior to Breslow's hiring. I wonder if Pedey might be willing to spend some time with Valdez in particular to see if he can help him improve his play at second base.
 

E5 Yaz

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Yeah I feel like I must have missed something that people are forecasting Valdez over Reyes. Wasn't Pablo just the better player for us this year, while offering more positional versatility?
It's mid-November. If either Valdez or Reyes is the regular starting 2B in April, I'll be surprised
 

simplicio

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If it's not someone already in house it's gotta be a trade, right? I do not want any of the names on the FA market.
 

thestardawg

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Rafaela at 2b would be an enormous waste of his talent. He derives most of his value with elite defense at shortstop and center field and he would be pushed down the defensive spectrum to second base. I’d rather stick him in center or make him shortstop and move Story back to second base. Or, alternatively keep him in center and give Yorke every chance to win the second base job in the spring. Having two cost controlled regulars providing above average defense would allow you to spend even more on the rotation and going after an impact corner bat.
 

YTF

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I've mentioned previously that I'm curious about Jon Berti of the Marlins. Set to make $3.65M this season and plays a half dozen positions. Marlins have pitching, so the Sox shouldn't have to give up any arms in return. I think he might fill the super sub role nicely and might serve as semi solution at 2B.
 

jon abbey

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Rafaela at 2b would be an enormous waste of his talent. He derives most of his value with elite defense at shortstop and center field and he would be pushed down the defensive spectrum to second base. I’d rather stick him in center or make him shortstop and move Story back to second base. Or, alternatively keep him in center and give Yorke every chance to win the second base job in the spring. Having two cost controlled regulars providing above average defense would allow you to spend even more on the rotation and going after an impact corner bat.
Story had incredible DRS numbers last year, +8 in just 37 games. For comparison, Volpe won the AL Gold Glove at +15 with more than four times the innings of Story. I don't think Story is moving back to 2B.
 

thestardawg

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Story had incredible DRS numbers last year, +8 in just 37 games. For comparison, Volpe won the AL Gold Glove at +15 with more than four times the innings of Story. I don't think Story is moving back to 2B.
Story absolutely crushed it this year but I believe the reports are Rafaela is even better. That being said I’d rather see him play center this year. If he could ops .700 he would be a tremendously valuable player.
 

chawson

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If it's not someone already in house it's gotta be a trade, right? I do not want any of the names on the FA market.
Not a ton of trade options that wouldn’t collide with the Mayer/Story middle infield crunch we’ve got coming in a year or so.

I’d be happy with Jorge Polanco if the Twins wanna clear up their infield. They’ve got Lewis, Correa and Julien (and Gordon, Farmer and Castro) for 3B-SS-2B. Polanco’s contract has 2/$25.5M remaining.
 

pearccol

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Not a ton of trade options that wouldn’t collide with the Mayer/Story middle infield crunch we’ve got coming in a year or so.

I’d be happy with Jorge Polanco if the Twins wanna clear up their infield. They’ve got Lewis, Correa and Julien (and Gordon, Farmer and Castro) for 3B-SS-2B. Polanco’s contract has 2/$25.5M remaining.
I quite liked the previously floated ideas of trading Verdugo for Brandon Drury or Verdugo for Gleyber Torres.
I would be more than happy to replace Verdugo in the outfield with Wilyer Abreu.
 

chawson

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I quite liked the previously floated ideas of trading Verdugo for Brandon Drury or Verdugo for Gleyber Torres.
I would be more than happy to replace Verdugo in the outfield with Wilyer Abreu.
I wouldn't mind those but they don't make a lot of sense to me. Can't see the Angels interested in one year of Verdugo where they're at, and I don't think the Sox and Yanks trade anything of substance, let alone something as Boston-tilted as Gleyber for Verdugo. (I'm into the Abreu plan though.)

A swap of Pivetta for Polanco seems nice and clean, filling needs for both parties. The Twins need another starter, and with an implied mandate to acquire starting pitching, I don't see a scenario where Pivetta opens the year in our starting rotation above Sale, Bello, Crawford and our offseason acquisitions. Houck and Whitlock are each ahead of him too, whether they're in the rotation or the pen.
 

simplicio

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I really don't want to dump Pivetta now though. He's always shown such brilliance in flashes that I want Bailey/Breslow to have some time with him.
 

Max Power

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I wouldn't mind those but they don't make a lot of sense to me. Can't see the Angels interested in one year of Verdugo where they're at, and I don't think the Sox and Yanks trade anything of substance, let alone something as Boston-tilted as Gleyber for Verdugo. (I'm into the Abreu plan though.)

A swap of Pivetta for Polanco seems nice and clean, filling needs for both parties. The Twins need another starter, and with an implied mandate to acquire starting pitching, I don't see a scenario where Pivetta opens the year in our starting rotation above Sale, Bello, Crawford and our offseason acquisitions. Houck and Whitlock are each ahead of him too, whether they're in the rotation or the pen.
It wouldn't be the hot stove season if Chawson weren't coming up with scenarios to dump Verdugo and Pivetta.

After the second half of the season he had, Pivetta deserves the 5th spot over Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock. And that's assuming they're able to successfully acquire two guys better than Sale or Bello. I know that's the plan, but it takes two sides to agree on a contract.
 

chawson

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It wouldn't be the hot stove season if Chawson weren't coming up with scenarios to dump Verdugo and Pivetta.
And I’ve been right to every year. Whatever would the 2022 and 2023 teams have done without Verdugo and Pivetta’s annual 1.5–2 WAR contributions.

They’ve been useful role players with ever-depreciating trade value who everyone has known for years won’t be part of the next Sox contention window. Pivetta had a pretty good turnaround last year after getting booted from the rotation, and I’ve got some renewed interest now that he added a new pitch, but that home run rate is still well below average.

I don’t hate him as our #5 next year, but it’ll probably get ugly (again) soon. He had a .268 BABIP last year. His career mark entering 2023 was .311. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher who allows an absolute ton of barrels and hard contact, and who more often than not has elevated walk rates. Hard pass on an extension from age-32 on, and probably better for the team to sell high now.
 

kazuneko

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And I’ve been right to every year. Whatever would the 2022 and 2023 teams have done without Verdugo and Pivetta’s annual 1.5–2 WAR contributions.

They’ve been useful role players with ever-depreciating trade value who everyone has known for years won’t be part of the next Sox contention window. Pivetta had a pretty good turnaround last year after getting booted from the rotation, and I’ve got some renewed interest now that he added a new pitch, but that home run rate is still well below average.

I don’t hate him as our #5 next year, but it’ll probably get ugly (again) soon. He had a .268 BABIP last year. His career mark entering 2023 was .311. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher who allows an absolute ton of barrels and hard contact, and who more often than not has elevated walk rates. Hard pass on an extension from age-32 on, and probably better for the team to sell high now.
Polanco would be an interesting target and Pivetta might be expendable if the Sox acquire/sign a couple of starters. He’s signed for two more seasons and decent enough with the bat/glove to be a bridge to Mayer/Yorke.
 

beautokyo

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Story had incredible DRS numbers last year, +8 in just 37 games. For comparison, Volpe won the AL Gold Glove at +15 with more than four times the innings of Story. I don't think Story is moving back to 2B.
I'm totally with you on this. Story is the starting SS and I believe the higher ups are thinking that way also.
 

circus catch

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Polanco would be an interesting target and Pivetta might be expendable if the Sox acquire/sign a couple of starters. He’s signed for two more seasons and decent enough with the bat/glove to be a bridge to Mayer/Yorke.
Polanco is a bat first 2B who’s had trouble staying on the field. He is not an upgrade on defense over anyone. Given what this team went through with infielders last year, I don’t think he fills our needs. Pass.
 

Max Power

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And I’ve been right to every year. Whatever would the 2022 and 2023 teams have done without Verdugo and Pivetta’s annual 1.5–2 WAR contributions.

They’ve been useful role players with ever-depreciating trade value who everyone has known for years won’t be part of the next Sox contention window. Pivetta had a pretty good turnaround last year after getting booted from the rotation, and I’ve got some renewed interest now that he added a new pitch, but that home run rate is still well below average.

I don’t hate him as our #5 next year, but it’ll probably get ugly (again) soon. He had a .268 BABIP last year. His career mark entering 2023 was .311. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher who allows an absolute ton of barrels and hard contact, and who more often than not has elevated walk rates. Hard pass on an extension from age-32 on, and probably better for the team to sell high now.
The team was hoping to compete the last two years and having average production at below average prices is the key to building out a good team. That they weren't able to compete is an indictment of Bloom's ability to pay for above average production, not an inability of your decent players to be more than decent. Trading them away would leave the team with replacement level dreck in their place and start them out in an even bigger hole in building out the rest of the roster.
 

JM3

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chawson

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The team was hoping to compete the last two years and having average production at below average prices is the key to building out a good team. That they weren't able to compete is an indictment of Bloom's ability to pay for above average production, not an inability of your decent players to be more than decent. Trading them away would leave the team with replacement level dreck in their place and start them out in an even bigger hole in building out the rest of the roster.
Well that would depend on who they're traded away for, wouldn't it? I'm not advocating to DFA them.

With the benefit of hindsight, we know what would have happened had Pivetta been traded away, because he was booted from the rotation and replaced anyway. His replacement was Crawford, who was better, and has a lot more value to us as a semi-established starter with five years of team control. As for Verdugo, his production could have been easily replaced by playing Duvall in RF full-time, with Duran and Refsnyder handling center. Again, that's with the benefit of hindsight, but it wouldn't have resulted in "an even bigger hole."
 

YTF

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cantor44

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I really don't want to dump Pivetta now though. He's always shown such brilliance in flashes that I want Bailey/Breslow to have some time with him.
Second this. Dumping Pivetta would seem pretty foolish. He was arguably the team's best pitcher the second half of the season. He has sensational stuff. That is - his career mediocrity is because of inconsistent command of his stuff, not because his ceiling is mediocre. He really harnessed his shit once we was sent to the pen, and continued the quality once reasserted into the rotation. With the right coaching Pivetta might not just be a legit #5, but a legit #3.
 

mwonow

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Late, but I'm with @The Gray Eagle - I heard that Urias was solid at second, but that isn't what I saw. Happy to have the chance to upgrade the D up the middle. Offense there is more "nice to have," while better D (not just from 2B, tbf) is more in the "keep the highlights from having the Benny Hill music" vein.

Looking forward to the Stache in the pen!
 

YTF

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I really don't want to dump Pivetta now though. He's always shown such brilliance in flashes that I want Bailey/Breslow to have some time with him.
Second this. Dumping Pivetta would seem pretty foolish. He was arguably the team's best pitcher the second half of the season. He has sensational stuff. That is - his career mediocrity is because of inconsistent command of his stuff, not because his ceiling is mediocre. He really harnessed his shit once we was sent to the pen, and continued the quality once reasserted into the rotation. With the right coaching Pivetta might not just be a legit #5, but a legit #3.
I agree as well. If he's able to round out the bottom of the rotation on a more consistent basis than he's previously shown as a starter or continues his brilliance in the bullpen he's a real asset. He is a FA after '24, so if he's able to be moved as part of a package for someone who's established as a # 2 type with a couple of years of control left I'm on board, but I think there's still a role for him here.
 

kazuneko

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Polanco is a bat first 2B who’s had trouble staying on the field. He is not an upgrade on defense over anyone. Given what this team went through with infielders last year, I don’t think he fills our needs. Pass.
There is one person he is very clearly a defensive upgrade on: Valdez, who despite having -6 DRS in only 357 innings is being seen by many here as a viable option. Polanco was +1 in 468 innings in 23’ and +2 for the last three seasons combined (2400+ innings). Interestingly, Reyes also graded poorly at 2b, with -5 DRS in just under 200 innings..
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I agree as well. If he's able to round out the bottom of the rotation on a more consistent basis than he's previously shown as a starter or continues his brilliance in the bullpen he's a real asset. He is a FA after '24, so if he's able to be moved as part of a package for someone who's established as a # 2 type with a couple of years of control left I'm on board, but I think there's still a role for him here.
I’m looking at the rotation as
New guy
New guy
Bello
Crawford/Houck
Sale/Pivetta

Sale is Sale and Whitlock should go back to the pen. Houck to me seems more likely to be a better BP arm and Crawford has the stuff to be a good starter.
Pivetta needs to stick around and you’re not trading him for someone who will have more value (or likely his health)
 

YTF

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I’m looking at the rotation as
New guy
New guy
Bello
Crawford/Houck
Sale/Pivetta

Sale is Sale and Whitlock should go back to the pen. Houck to me seems more likely to be a better BP arm and Crawford has the stuff to be a good starter.
Pivetta needs to stick around and you’re not trading him for someone who will have more value (or likely his health)
I'm thinking similarly with Crawford, Sale and Pivetta rounding out the final two slots. If they do wind up with Yamamoto perhaps they will go with a 6 man rotation for a time in which case perhaps Pivetta might serve as a swing guy. I'm also hoping that Breslow is able to better define roles for Whitlock and Houck and let them settle into those roles.
 

JM3

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Fangraphs has an article on the trade (mostly the Urias side). Here's the part about Isaiah Campbell:

Although his career got off to a slow start due to the lost 2020 season and an elbow surgery in 2021, the righty quickly established himself as a legitimate big league bullpen arm after pitching to a 1.57 ERA and 3.04 FIP over the last two minor league seasons. His pitches are a little difficult to classify; what Pitch Info calls his slider, Baseball Savant calls a sweeper, and what Baseball Savant calls a slider, Pitch Info calls a cutter. Regardless of what you call it, however, his cutter/slider is a true weapon. He threw it about 38% of the time in 2023, holding big league batters to a .139 wOBA and .217 xwOBA. The pitch modeling systems agree that it’s a plus pitch, and combined with his high-spinning four-seam fastball, which sits 95 and tops out at 97.4 mph, Campbell has what it takes to hold down a spot in Boston’s bullpen. The Red Sox have some solid arms at the back end of their ‘pen, but they need depth, and this move helps to accomplish that goal.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mariners-scoop-up-luis-urias-for-another-fresh-start/