Looking Ahead: Stevan Ridley, Very Important Person

KFP

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Sep 5, 2014
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http://central.sonsofsamhorn.net/nfl/looking-ahead-stevan-ridley-very-important-person/
 

Since their 18-1* season, the Patriots are 6-6 in the playoffs. In their 6 wins they’ve averaged 31 carries and 148.6 rushing yards per game. That’s a robust 4.7 YPC. In their 6 losses? They averaged 21 carries and 79.5 yards per game on the ground. That’s a paltry 3.8 yards per carry.
 
“Hey Ross, that’s garbage. Of course a team’s going to run the ball more often in wins than losses.”
 
Good point, internet person. So for the sake of argument, let’s throw the second half stats out entirely. After all, almost every game is competitive in the first half, so teams aren’t running the clock out and padding their rushing stats.
 
We already know that the Patriots run more efficiently in wins than losses (nearly a yard better in victories). What you may not have known is that in the first half of playoff losses – when the games are close and competitive – the Patriots only average 10 carries. Or that in playoff victories, the Patriots average over 14 carries (+40%) in the first half. And then there’s this: In those 6 playoff losses, only once did they rush more than 11 times in the first half, whereas in 5 of the 6 playoff victories they rushed 12 times or more.
 
 

 
 

RFDA2000

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Nov 16, 2005
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Article won't open for me, but did you look at carries as a % of offensive snaps?  A 4 run increase could simply be from drives not stalling out, which would lead to winning (without the extra four runs really telling us much).