I'm not worried about the special teams. Not sure why they were so bad this year (outside of Folk), but BB teams are consistently really good in this department so it would surprise me if they weren't back to being a really good ST team next year.
The offense, I think, is in pretty good shape. I am sold on Mac. He made some turnovers - some great plays by the D, some unlucky, and some were totally on Mac. But that's expected in a rookie. In Allen's rookie year he had 12 picks and 8 fumbles. In Kyler Murray's rookie year he had 12 picks and 5 fumbles. He showed toughness and resiliency. He needs to clean some things up and make some improvements, obviously, but I' high on him. He's already league average for a starter (which is pretty awesome for a rookie), and he should get into the top tier in a couple of years.
The RB corps is excellent. Harris and Stevenson are a terrific 1-2 punch. White hopefully will return, though he's a FA so who knows. Bolden, despite his drop yesterday (which was...godawful), was pretty solid all year long.
The OL is pretty good. They weren't as good this year as I hoped they would be, but they were pretty good, and should be pretty good next year. A decision needs to be made on Trent Brown. But the core of that OL is in good shape. Still need to draft more there, but on the whole, that group is ok.
The WRs....I'm higher on the WRs than many/most here. I think Bourne is fantastic. Tough, gritty, athletic - can run with it or make tough catches. He needs to be targeted and used more, but he's a really good football player. Meyers is fine. Nothing special, but fine. He's the kind of receiver who, going up against our 2nd or 3rd corner, would have a field day. I think Agholor is fine - not remotely worth what they're paying him, but that's a separate issue. Those three are fine. But they really could use a major upgrade at that position, a real game-breaker. I'd like each of these guys to be bumped down on the depth chart and have a stud at the top. Not sure that's the priority, as the offense on the whole wasn't the problem.
The TE group is ok. Henry is solid. Jonnu didn't live up to anyone's expectations, but he's still a threat once he gets the ball. He's going nowhere - massive dead cap hit if they cut or trade him. So he's here and they just need to figure out how to use him better.
The defense, though, is a problem. It's SO weird. By almost every metric - yards allowed, points allowed, DVOA, you name it, they were a very good defense this year. But they obviously struggled late in the year. Why was that? Did they just get worn down? Did this reflect their true talent level? Is Josh Allen their kryptonite?
Allen's last six games:
- at TB: 36-54 (66.7%), 308 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 86.0 rating
- vs Car: 19-34 (55.9%), 210 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 91.5 rating
- at NE: 30-47 (63.8%), 314 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 104.4 rating
- vs Atl: 11-26 (42.3%), 120 yds, 0 td, 3 int, 17.0 rating
- vs NYJ: 24-45 (53.3%), 239 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 83.5 rating
- vs NE: 21-25 (84.0%), 308 yds, 5 td, 0 int, 157.6 rating
So in the 4 games against non-NE opponents: 90-159 (56.6%), 877 yds, 5.5 y/a, 7 td, 5 int, 73.8 rating
And in the 2 games against the Patriots: 51-72 (70.8%), 622 yds, 8.6 y/a, 8 td, 0 int, 134.1 rating
I mean....holy smokes they absolutely figured something out.
So how good/bad is the Pats' defense actually? You don't play a whole season being at the top of the NFL in almost every metric, from traditional to advanced, and be a bad defense. It's not possible. Good defenses do have bad days sometimes. Obviously last night was the worst defensive performance in playoff history - not getting a single stop all night long. Not one. Barely even made Buffalo face third down. Unfathomably bad. Not even the worst defense in NFL history would be expected to do THAT, not even against the best offense in NFL history. So what happened?
Well, the front seven disappeared. Couldn't stop the run. In New England's last five games, opponents averaged 157.8 rush yards per game on 156 attempts. That's 5.1 yards per attempt.
Moreover, they fell behind early. In their last 4 losses, opponents all scored early and often, putting the team in a hole right away. They also couldn't get key stops. They also didn't get turnovers. In their 10 wins, they generated 27 turnovers (2.7 per game). In their 8 losses, they generated 4 turnovers (0.5 per game). I mean...there you go right there. In their last 4 losses, they generated just 1 turnover. They had a chance for more, but couldn't hold onto the football. But they struggled to put pressure on the QB late in the year. That, combined with injuries to the secondary, meant for easy pickings for opposing offenses.
Matt Judon disappeared.
- First 13 games: 49 tackles, 13 TFL, 12.5 sacks (3.8, 1.0, 1.0)
- Last 5 games: 8 tackles, 1 TFL, 0 sacks (1.6, 0.1, 0.0)
I mean, that's like two completely different players.
Judon was put on the COVID list on Dec 27, right after the Buffalo game. Did that impact his play? He did ok in the Indy game the week before (5 tackles), but maybe was starting to feel the effects in that 2nd Buffalo game? Who knows. I don't know if Covid was a factor, or if he was banged up, or if teams just figured it out against him, or he ran out of gas, or what. But he was a legit DPOY candidate the first 13 games, and then he completely vanished, and his absence was glaring.
Having the secondary reduced to a lot of backups didn't exactly help either.
So how much of the D is fixable? Everyone is complaining about how they can't compete in this league with their lack of speed, but they didn't NOT play well all year. They finished, by almost every metric, with one of the better defenses in the league. You don't get there by being bad and slow and unable to compete. But they DO need improvements. Hightower and Collins are toast. Van Noy still has something left in the tank but he should be a reserve. They REALLY need guys like McGrone to step in and be studs. Uche being good would help too.
This is a huge offseason for NE. Holes to fill. But the foundation is there for a solid team. Long gone are the days when we should just count on them making the AFCCG. Now fighting for the playoffs is what we should expect. Which is fine. We're back to being normal football fans again.
The offense, I think, is in pretty good shape. I am sold on Mac. He made some turnovers - some great plays by the D, some unlucky, and some were totally on Mac. But that's expected in a rookie. In Allen's rookie year he had 12 picks and 8 fumbles. In Kyler Murray's rookie year he had 12 picks and 5 fumbles. He showed toughness and resiliency. He needs to clean some things up and make some improvements, obviously, but I' high on him. He's already league average for a starter (which is pretty awesome for a rookie), and he should get into the top tier in a couple of years.
The RB corps is excellent. Harris and Stevenson are a terrific 1-2 punch. White hopefully will return, though he's a FA so who knows. Bolden, despite his drop yesterday (which was...godawful), was pretty solid all year long.
The OL is pretty good. They weren't as good this year as I hoped they would be, but they were pretty good, and should be pretty good next year. A decision needs to be made on Trent Brown. But the core of that OL is in good shape. Still need to draft more there, but on the whole, that group is ok.
The WRs....I'm higher on the WRs than many/most here. I think Bourne is fantastic. Tough, gritty, athletic - can run with it or make tough catches. He needs to be targeted and used more, but he's a really good football player. Meyers is fine. Nothing special, but fine. He's the kind of receiver who, going up against our 2nd or 3rd corner, would have a field day. I think Agholor is fine - not remotely worth what they're paying him, but that's a separate issue. Those three are fine. But they really could use a major upgrade at that position, a real game-breaker. I'd like each of these guys to be bumped down on the depth chart and have a stud at the top. Not sure that's the priority, as the offense on the whole wasn't the problem.
The TE group is ok. Henry is solid. Jonnu didn't live up to anyone's expectations, but he's still a threat once he gets the ball. He's going nowhere - massive dead cap hit if they cut or trade him. So he's here and they just need to figure out how to use him better.
The defense, though, is a problem. It's SO weird. By almost every metric - yards allowed, points allowed, DVOA, you name it, they were a very good defense this year. But they obviously struggled late in the year. Why was that? Did they just get worn down? Did this reflect their true talent level? Is Josh Allen their kryptonite?
Allen's last six games:
- at TB: 36-54 (66.7%), 308 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 86.0 rating
- vs Car: 19-34 (55.9%), 210 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 91.5 rating
- at NE: 30-47 (63.8%), 314 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 104.4 rating
- vs Atl: 11-26 (42.3%), 120 yds, 0 td, 3 int, 17.0 rating
- vs NYJ: 24-45 (53.3%), 239 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 83.5 rating
- vs NE: 21-25 (84.0%), 308 yds, 5 td, 0 int, 157.6 rating
So in the 4 games against non-NE opponents: 90-159 (56.6%), 877 yds, 5.5 y/a, 7 td, 5 int, 73.8 rating
And in the 2 games against the Patriots: 51-72 (70.8%), 622 yds, 8.6 y/a, 8 td, 0 int, 134.1 rating
I mean....holy smokes they absolutely figured something out.
So how good/bad is the Pats' defense actually? You don't play a whole season being at the top of the NFL in almost every metric, from traditional to advanced, and be a bad defense. It's not possible. Good defenses do have bad days sometimes. Obviously last night was the worst defensive performance in playoff history - not getting a single stop all night long. Not one. Barely even made Buffalo face third down. Unfathomably bad. Not even the worst defense in NFL history would be expected to do THAT, not even against the best offense in NFL history. So what happened?
Well, the front seven disappeared. Couldn't stop the run. In New England's last five games, opponents averaged 157.8 rush yards per game on 156 attempts. That's 5.1 yards per attempt.
Moreover, they fell behind early. In their last 4 losses, opponents all scored early and often, putting the team in a hole right away. They also couldn't get key stops. They also didn't get turnovers. In their 10 wins, they generated 27 turnovers (2.7 per game). In their 8 losses, they generated 4 turnovers (0.5 per game). I mean...there you go right there. In their last 4 losses, they generated just 1 turnover. They had a chance for more, but couldn't hold onto the football. But they struggled to put pressure on the QB late in the year. That, combined with injuries to the secondary, meant for easy pickings for opposing offenses.
Matt Judon disappeared.
- First 13 games: 49 tackles, 13 TFL, 12.5 sacks (3.8, 1.0, 1.0)
- Last 5 games: 8 tackles, 1 TFL, 0 sacks (1.6, 0.1, 0.0)
I mean, that's like two completely different players.
Judon was put on the COVID list on Dec 27, right after the Buffalo game. Did that impact his play? He did ok in the Indy game the week before (5 tackles), but maybe was starting to feel the effects in that 2nd Buffalo game? Who knows. I don't know if Covid was a factor, or if he was banged up, or if teams just figured it out against him, or he ran out of gas, or what. But he was a legit DPOY candidate the first 13 games, and then he completely vanished, and his absence was glaring.
Having the secondary reduced to a lot of backups didn't exactly help either.
So how much of the D is fixable? Everyone is complaining about how they can't compete in this league with their lack of speed, but they didn't NOT play well all year. They finished, by almost every metric, with one of the better defenses in the league. You don't get there by being bad and slow and unable to compete. But they DO need improvements. Hightower and Collins are toast. Van Noy still has something left in the tank but he should be a reserve. They REALLY need guys like McGrone to step in and be studs. Uche being good would help too.
This is a huge offseason for NE. Holes to fill. But the foundation is there for a solid team. Long gone are the days when we should just count on them making the AFCCG. Now fighting for the playoffs is what we should expect. Which is fine. We're back to being normal football fans again.