Let's Predict the 2024 Red Sox Season

[thepriceisright]

Interesting prediction by Eno Sarris

For those who don't click the link, he's basically saying that strikeout minus walk rate is a good predictive stat, which the Red Sox graded out well in this spring. His "bold prediction" is that the Sox will have a top-5 AL rotation this year.

 

[Cassvt2023]

@Rovin Romine i’ve noticed the win totals predictions ticking up a bit in the last couple days with the later entries. I wonder if it has to do with a pretty decent spring training showing by the team, especially with the SP over performing their expected production?

 

[Rovin Romine]

@Rovin Romine i’ve noticed the win totals predictions ticking up a bit in the last couple days with the later entries. I wonder if it has to do with a pretty decent spring training showing by the team, especially with the SP over performing their expected production?

I suspect cunning gamesmanship from key posters who have long coveted the no-prize.

 

[loneredseat]

@Rovin Romine I’ve noticed the win totals predictions ticking up a bit in the last couple days with the later entries. I wonder if it has to do with a pretty decent spring training showing by the team, especially with the SP over performing their expected production?

I noticed that too.
It could also be that early spring feeling. That hope and optimism and "if I squint just right...."
I was really hoping for JM until a little while ago. I think until I saw rotation fall into place as it is. I really like these guys, and I'm glad they're all getting a shot, this year, together.
In 2004 I was working in a school full of yankee fans other than myself and one other. When we were down 0-3 I said to him "If it's going to happen, this is the way I want it to go down." Well, I'll just say that if it's going to be a good year (I went with 87 wins) I'd like to see it happen like this.
Really, I'm just excited to know that tomorrow night I'm going to get to to turn on the radio and hear Joe Castiglione welcome in the new season. I freaking love Joe Castiglione.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I suspect cunning gamesmanship from key posters who have long coveted the no-prize.

haha. You’re probably onto something there. I picked 85 wins about 3 weeks ago, and although I did alter a few of my tiebreakers, I stayed with 85-77. I think the better defense alone and the absence of a complete late season collapse will get this team about 6-8 wins more than last season

 

[Sin Duda]

87.

Team leader in Wins? - Pivetta
-Team leader in Losses? - Houck
-Team leader in Saves? - Jansen
-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? - Pivetta
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? - Yoshi
-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? - Casas
-Team leader in OPS? - Casas
-Team leader in HR? - Devers
-Team leader for RBI? - Casas
-Team leader in Stolen Bases? - Rafaela
-Team leader in HBP? - O'Neil
-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? - Grissom
-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? - Rafaela
-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? - Pivetta, Bello, Crawford
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? - Whitlock
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster (26 man) who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? - Criswell
-Position Player not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? - Grissom.
-Pitcher not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? - Slaten
-Position Player not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? - O'Neill
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no shoves - a true swing)? - o'Neill
-Name a player who has ML playing time for the Sox in 2024 who is traded away during the season. - Jansen
(counts for 2 points if you name the player first traded by the Sox.)
-Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). -Dalbec
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? - Rafaela
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? - Duran
-Manager on the final day of the season? - Cora
-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? - 4

 

[LynnRice75]

89 wins

-Team leader in Wins? - Pivetta
-Team leader in Losses? - Whitlock
-Team leader in Saves? - Jansen
-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? - Crawford
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? - Yoshida
-Team leader for OPB? - Casas
-Team leader in OPS? - Devers
-Team leader in HR? - Casas
-Team leader for RBI? - Casas
-Team leader in Stolen Bases? - Duran
-Team leader in HBP? - O'Neil
-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? - Grissom
-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? - Rafaela
-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? - Pivetta, Bello, Crawford
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? - Jansen
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster (26 man) who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? - Fitts
-Position Player not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? - Grissom.
-Pitcher not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? - Fitts
-Position Player not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? - Grissom
-Name a player who has ML playing time for the Sox in 2024 who is traded away during the season. - Jansen
(counts for 2 points if you name the player first traded by the Sox.)
Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). - Dalbec
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? - Houck
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? - Duran
-Manager on the final day of the season? - Cora
-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? - 3

 

[Son of Mark]

77 wins

- Team leader in Wins? Pivetta
-Team leader in Losses? Pivetta
-Team leader in Saves? Jansen
-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? Houck
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Yoshida
-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? Casas
-Team leader in OPS? Devers
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader for RBI? Devers
-Team leader in Stolen Bases? Duran
-Team leader in HBP? Duran
-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? Grissom
-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? Rafaela
-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? Crawford, Bello, Pivetta
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? O’Neill
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster (26 man) who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Criswell
-Position Player not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Grissom
-Pitcher not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Slaten
-Position Player not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Grissom
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no shoves - a true swing)? O’Neill
-Name a player who has ML playing time for the Sox in 2024 who is traded away during the season.
(counts for 2 points if you name the player first traded by the Sox.) Jansen
-Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). Bernardino
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Houck
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Duran
-Manager on the final day of the season? Cora
-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? 0

 

[Whoop-La White]

88 wins.
Hell, why not.

- Team leader in Wins? Bello
-Team leader in Losses? Houck
-Team leader in Saves? Jansen
-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? Bello
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Yoshida
-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? Abreu
-Team leader in OPS? Devers
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader for RBI? Devers
-Team leader in Stolen Bases? Story
-Team leader in HBP? O’Neill
-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? Valdez
-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? Duran
-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? Bello, Pivetta, Whitlock
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? Slaten

-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster (26 man) who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Uwasawa
-Position Player not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Yorke
-Pitcher not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Uwasawa
-Position Player not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? O’Neill
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no shoves - a true swing)? McGuire
-Name a player who has ML playing time for the Sox in 2024 who is traded away during the season.
(counts for 2 points if you name the player first traded by the Sox.) Mata
-Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). Criswell
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Crawford
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Campbell
-Manager on the final day of the season? Cora
-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? 4

 

[budcrew08]

85 wins. Playing competitive baseball into September.


- Team leader in Wins? Pivetta
-Team leader in Losses? Houck
-Team leader in Saves? Jansen
-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? Bello
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Yoshida
-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? Duran
-Team leader in OPS? Devers
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader for RBI? Devers
-Team leader in Stolen Bases? Story
-Team leader in HBP? O’Neill
-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? Grissom
-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? Rafaela
-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? Bello, Pivetta, Crawford
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? Slaten

-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster (26 man) who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Dick Fitts
-Position Player not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)?
-Pitcher not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Criswell
-Position Player not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? O’Neill
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no shoves - a true swing)? McGuire
-Name a player who has ML playing time for the Sox in 2024 who is traded away during the season.
(counts for 2 points if you name the player first traded by the Sox.) Jansen
-Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). Dalbec
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? none
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Wincowski
-Manager on the final day of the season? Cora
-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? 0 (he doesn't pitch against us)

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Most posters appear to think this year's team is worse than last years.... or that every other team in the league has relatively improved?

 

[Rovin Romine]

Happy (Continental US) Opening Day Everyone!

We've had a flurry of picks, and with the first pitch at 10:10 EST or so, there's time for more yet.

Picks as of this post:

 

[Rovin Romine]

Most posters appear to think this year's team is worse than last years.... or that every other team in the league has relatively improved?

It's interesting.

There's the general poll which people could make a hip-shot prediction on, but could also change up to the end of spring training. 221 for same or better v. 176 worse.

Then there's the contest itself, which requires some thinking about team composition and what specific players are going to do relative to their peers. Right now that's at 59 picks for same or better v. 39 worse.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

77 wins. They start off pretty good, starters run into a wall in June/July, get hurt and the bullpen is on fumes by August. Pretty much the same as last year.

 

[RS2004foreever]

83 wins. Grissom and Story hit, and the starting pitching is better than last year.

 

[AB in DC]

I'm feeling super pessimistic. Lineup is average and pitching staff is worse. The two best relievers are nearing 40. Except for Casas, the youngsters are still a year or two away. Most concerning is that there is less depth on this team than any non-COVID Sox team that I can remember -- other than OF, there's pretty much no one on the bench or AAA who I'd trust as more than a two-week fill-in. Which means worse-than-average injury luck could easily result in the wheels falling off entirely. .

67 wins.

Skipping the tiebreaker Qs since no one else is at 67-95

 

[simplicio]

Most posters appear to think this year's team is worse than last years.... or that every other team in the league has relatively improved?

I just bumped mine up to 85 to match my prediction from last year.

Overall I do think they're about the same. I'm much more optimistic about the pitching coming out of camp than I was going in, even after the Giolito injury, simply because the guys we've got have been looking pretty good. I share JMOH's concerns that they'll fall apart in August, but I'm gonna put faith in the new FO being aware of that potential and indulge in some optimism.

I think the league has gone through some interesting changes. The central looks a lot less willing to simply roll over this year, but to me our division actually looks a bit softer. I think Baltimore and TB overperformed significantly last year (TB mostly coasting off that absurd start). Tampa and Toronto both have some injury problems already. NY obviously got Soto, but they needed improvement from Rodon (who was mediocre in spring) and health from Judge (TBD) to really jump up the power rankings, and any injury to Cole is obviously crushing. I see Baltimore as still favored to take the division but I could really see the rest of us ranking any which way.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I am bumping up my prediction from 72 to 76. Not too excited about this team, but less depressed than I was a couple weeks ago

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

See below

 

[Rovin Romine]

I didn’t vote in time but say 77.

But you did.

The poll is just a poll.

For the contest, you have to post your pick for a specific number of wins. You can (and should) also correctly answer the most tie-breaker questions (see the first post) to prevail against anyone who also picked the same number of wins as yourself. In the end there can be only one.

You can change your pick and your tie-breaker answers up until the first pitch of the first Red Sox game of the season. Which is aprox. 10 PM EST tonight.

Any editing tags (for whatever reason) on your pick after the first pitch disqualifies it entirely.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I just bumped mine up to 85 to match my prediction from last year.

Overall I do think they're about the same. I'm much more optimistic about the pitching coming out of camp than I was going in, even after the Giolito injury, simply because the guys we've got have been looking pretty good. I share JMOH's concerns that they'll fall apart in August, but I'm gonna put faith in the new FO being aware of that potential and indulge in some optimism.

I think the league has gone through some interesting changes. The central looks a lot less willing to simply roll over this year, but to me our division actually looks a bit softer. I think Baltimore and TB overperformed significantly last year (TB mostly coasting off that absurd start). Tampa and Toronto both have some injury problems already. NY obviously got Soto, but they needed improvement from Rodon (who was mediocre in spring) and health from Judge (TBD) to really jump up the power rankings, and any injury to Cole is obviously crushing. I see Baltimore as still favored to take the division but I could really see the rest of us ranking any which way.

The expected opening day '23 rotation was: Sale, Kluber, Houck, Pivetta, Whitlock. With that rotation compared to Bello (clearly better than Kluber), Pivetta (clearly improved from '23 version), Houck, Whitlock (I think anyone should at least be an "equal" projection here on both), and then it comes down to who you liked more in Crawford v Sale. Obviously any sane person would pick Sale all things being equal, but they never are and lots of people knew that last year with Sale while making projections, so I'm going with that matchup as "equal" also. So for a projected rotation, I lean towards the '24 version being 4 games better than last years projected (not the rotation that ACTUALLY started the season, which I'd say right now, this team is 6-7 wins better).

Then the lineup, defense is also clearly, clearly better. 1B last season at this time was Turner/Casas (who most people wanted to start in AAA) vs Monster Casas (lean towards a collective small improvement)
2B was a mess vs what is also clearly a mess but likely at least an improved Valdez and Grissom over last year's turd
SS also a mess vs what is looking to be a healthy Story (massive improvement for '24)
3B at worst will be a wash
C at worst a wash
RF at worst a slight downgrade
CF big improvement
LF big improvement
DH maybe a wash

I'd grade the offense at maybe a general 2-3 game improvement


Bullpen? This could be where the '23 team at least on paper had a clear advantage so '23 version a 2-3 game advantage.

Overall I think this team as of today- the roster where everyone can still change their projections- is at least 7-8 wins better than last year's version.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Skipping the tiebreaker Qs since no one else is at 67-95

HEY EVERYONE!

Just a reminder that if the team ends up winning a number of games that nobody picked, whomever picked nearest number of wins is the winner of the contest. (Tie-breakers apply if there's more than one person to do so.)

This year that would only seem to apply on the far ends of our collective range.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

The expected opening day '23 rotation was: Sale, Kluber, Houck, Pivetta, Whitlock. With that rotation compared to Bello (clearly better than Kluber), Pivetta (clearly improved from '23 version), Houck, Whitlock (I think anyone should at least be an "equal" projection here on both), and then it comes down to who you liked more in Crawford v Sale. Obviously any sane person would pick Sale all things being equal, but they never are and lots of people knew that last year with Sale while making projections, so I'm going with that matchup as "equal" also. So for a projected rotation, I lean towards the '24 version being 4 games better than last years projected (not the rotation that ACTUALLY started the season, which I'd say right now, this team is 6-7 wins better).

Then the lineup, defense is also clearly, clearly better. 1B last season at this time was Turner/Casas (who most people wanted to start in AAA) vs Monster Casas (lean towards a collective small improvement)
2B was a mess vs what is also clearly a mess but likely at least an improved Valdez and Grissom over last year's turd
SS also a mess vs what is looking to be a healthy Story (massive improvement for '24)
3B at worst will be a wash
C at worst a wash
RF at worst a slight downgrade
CF big improvement
LF big improvement
DH maybe a wash

I'd grade the offense at maybe a general 2-3 game improvement


Bullpen? This could be where the '23 team at least on paper had a clear advantage so '23 version a 2-3 game advantage.

Overall I think this team as of today- the roster where everyone can still change their projections- is at least 7-8 wins better than last year's version.

I posted something similar (position by position break down) in the "throttle" thread, and maybe it's better here.

Overall I tend to agree - or at least I believe the ceiling on this team is much higher than it was in 2022 or 2023, and it's a heck of a lot more interesting to watch.



The major reason I predicted 74 wins for this team (instead of something like an 82-80 season) is that I think Breslow will be more decisive at the deadline than Bloom was. Or - put another way - I think this exact team if left together all year would go 82-80 and miss the playoffs by about 5 games.

However, I think Breslow will do what Bloom should have in 2022 and 2023 and none of Jansen, Martin, O'Neill, Refsnyder or Pivetta (unless extended) will be on the active roster (O'Neill will probably be injured before he can be moved) when the first pitch is thrown on August 2nd in Arlington, so they'll win 74 instead of 82.


*And - if they actually do defy expectations and are somehow within a game or two of the playoffs on 7/31, he's going to actually address the glaring holes on the team that do exist - because they do on even really good teams - and make moves to address them. In which case the 82 becomes more like 88.*

 

[AlNipper49]

-Team leader in Wins? Whitlock
-Team leader in Losses? Bello
-Team leader in Saves? Houck
-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? Pivetta
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Yoshida
-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? Story
-Team leader in OPS? Devers
-Team leader in HR? Casas
-Team leader for RBI? Devers
-Team leader in Stolen Bases? Rafaela
-Team leader in HBP? Casas
-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? Grissom
-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? Rafaela
-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? Bello, Pivetta and Whitlock
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? Crawford
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster (26 man) who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Uwasawa
-Position Player not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Grissom
-Pitcher not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Campbell
-Position Player not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? O'Neill
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no shoves - a true swing)? Dalbec
-Name a player who has ML playing time for the Sox in 2024 who is traded away during the season.
(counts for 2 points if you name the player first traded by the Sox.) McGuire
-Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). Hamilton
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? O'Neill
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Casas
-Manager on the final day of the season? Cora
-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? 3

 

[Sin Duda]

I voted 86 because their pythag was about 80 last year and I think these aspects are improved: IF defense (+2 wins), OF defense (+1), SP health (+2) - it has to get better after the last 2 years, coaching (+2); hitting/runs will be about the same (0), and I think the bullpen will be a little worse (-1) = 86. Admittedly very unscientific.

 

[jbupstate]

I voted 86 because their pythag was about 80 last year and I think these aspects are improved: IF defense (+2 wins), OF defense (+1), SP health (+2) - it has to get better after the last 2 years, coaching (+2); hitting/runs will be about the same (0), and I think the bullpen will be a little worse (-1) = 86. Admittedly very unscientific.

Cut from earlier in offseason Path to 90 wins post.

… what it would take from the current/potential roster to reach 90 wins next year. Starting point of 78 wins in 2023.

Health of SP (+3)
- Nobody gets drilled if face by a batted ball
- Bello’s arm doesn’t fall off
- Bonus: One additional win for Sale *GONE*

Improved Defense (+4)
- Casas and Yoshida settle in with slight improvement
- Dever takes step forward from horrible to just bad
- Story is excellent over full season
- Duran maintains
- O’Neil healthy in RF
- Rafaela strengthens MI/OF


Offense (+5)
- Devers stays hot all season
- Yoshida in consistent without huge 2H drop
- O’Neil stretches and hits bombs like Duval/Turner
- Story can hit .250 with power and speed *High hopes!!!*
- Duran gets on base, havoc ensues
- Casas mashes for full season
* Healthy Grissom has potent to get the offense there *

Bullpen (even)
- No Bearclaw
- No Tilt
- No Ort
* Agree the pen could take a small step back *

Wish List
- Big requirement is injury luck. * key injuries will sink team obviously *
- In addition to Bello, couple SP that can eat 140+ innings. * CRAP… Giolito would have given innings at least. In B&B we trust*
- Stop gap 2B that can hit and field at or above replacement level. * Grissom has potential to be a huge addition *

Lots of squinting there. If you don’t have hope…. What’s the point of rooting for the laundry?

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

84 wins

-Team leader in Wins? Bello
-Team leader in Losses? Crawford
-Team leader in Saves? Jansen
-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? Qualifying starter: Bello; Qualifying reliever: Martin
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Yoshida
-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? Casas
-Team leader in OPS? Casas
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader for RBI? Devers
-Team leader in Stolen Bases? Duran
-Team leader in HBP? Devers
-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? Grissom
-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? Rafaela
-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? Bello, Crawford, Pivetta
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? O'Neil
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster (26 man) who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Criswell
-Position Player not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Grissom
-Pitcher not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Campbell
-Position Player not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Grissom
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no shoves - a true swing)? None
-Name a player who has ML playing time for the Sox in 2024 who is traded away during the season.
(counts for 2 points if you name the player first traded by the Sox.) Martin
-Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). Valdez
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Houck
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Winckowski
-Manager on the final day of the season? Cora
-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? 2

 

[CR67dream]

-Team leader in Wins? Whitlock
-Team leader in Losses? Bello
-Team leader in Saves? Houck
-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? Pivetta
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Yoshida
-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? Story
-Team leader in OPS? Devers
-Team leader in HR? Casas
-Team leader for RBI? Devers
-Team leader in Stolen Bases? Rafaela
-Team leader in HBP? Casas
-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? Grissom
-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? Rafaela
-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? Bello, Pivetta and Whitlock
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? Crawford
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster (26 man) who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Uwasawa
-Position Player not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Grissom
-Pitcher not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Campbell
-Position Player not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? O'Neill
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no shoves - a true swing)? Dalbec
-Name a player who has ML playing time for the Sox in 2024 who is traded away during the season.
(counts for 2 points if you name the player first traded by the Sox.) McGuire
-Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). Hamilton
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? O'Neill
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Casas
-Manager on the final day of the season? Cora
-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? 3

Something's missing....

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

But you did.

The poll is just a poll.

For the contest, you have to post your pick for a specific number of wins. You can (and should) also correctly answer the most tie-breaker questions (see the first post) to prevail against anyone who also picked the same number of wins as yourself. In the end there can be only one.

You can change your pick and your tie-breaker answers up until the first pitch of the first Red Sox game of the season. Which is aprox. 10 PM EST tonight.

Any editing tags (for whatever reason) on your pick after the first pitch disqualifies it entirely.

77 wins

-Team leader in Wins? Crawford
-Team leader in Losses? Pivetta
-Team leader in Saves? KJ
-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? Bello
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Yoshida
-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? Devers
-Team leader in OPS? Devers
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader for RBI? Devers
-Team leader in Stolen Bases? Duran
-Team leader in HBP? Abreu
-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? Valdez
-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? Rafaela
-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? Bello, Pivetta, Crawford
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? Grissom
-Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). Dalbec
-Manager on the final day of the season? Cora
-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? 7

 

[steeplechase3k]

85 wins

-Team leader in Wins? Bello
-Team leader in Losses? Whitlock
-Team leader in Saves? Jansen
-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? Bello
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Yoshida
-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? Casas
-Team leader in OPS? Casas
-Team leader in HR? Casas
-Team leader for RBI? Devers
-Team leader in Stolen Bases? Duran
-Team leader in HBP? Story
-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? Grissom
-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? Rafaela
-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? Bello, Pivetta, Whitlock
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? Abreu
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no shoves - a true swing)? None
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? None
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Casas
-Manager on the final day of the season? Cora
-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? 8

 

[AlNipper49]

Something's missing....

89 wins

 

[thestardawg]

I feel like this is an 85 Win Team


- Team leader in Wins? Whitlock
-Team leader in Losses? Bello
-Team leader in Saves? Martin
-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? Whitlock
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Yoshida
-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? Casas
-Team leader in OPS? Devers
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader for RBI? Devers
-Team leader in Stolen Bases? Duran
-Team leader in HBP? Devers
-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? Grissom
-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? Rafaela
-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? Whitlock Crawford Bello
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? Duran
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster (26 man) who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Guerrero
-Position Player not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Grissom
-Pitcher not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Guerrero
-Position Player not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Grissom
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no shoves - a true swing)? Story
-Name a player who has ML playing time for the Sox in 2024 who is traded away during the season.
(counts for 2 points if you name the player first traded by the Sox.) Dalbec
-Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). Hamilton
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Duran
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Mine
-Manager on the final day of the season? Cora
-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? 0

 

[Pozo the Clown]

78 wins

Team leader in Wins? Pivetta and Crawford tie
-Team leader in Losses? Houck
-Team leader in Saves? Jansen
-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? Pivetta
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Yoshida
-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? Devers
-Team leader in OPS? Devers
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader for RBI? Devers
-Team leader in Stolen Bases? Duran
-Team leader in HBP? Duran
-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? Grissom
-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? Rafaela
-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? Pivetta, Crawford & Bello
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? Joely Rodriguez
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster (26 man) who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Bernadino
-Position Player not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Grissom
-Pitcher not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Slaten
-Position Player not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? O'Neill
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no shoves - a true swing)? McGuire
-Name a player who has ML playing time for the Sox in 2024 who is traded away during the season. Jansen
(counts for 2 points if you name the player first traded by the Sox.)
-Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). Valdez
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days?
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Winckowski
-Manager on the final day of the season? Cora
-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? 3

 

[Rovin Romine]

Getting down to the final hour and a half here. . .

 

[j-man]

good luck this season

 

[simplicio]

Getting down to the final hour and a half here. . .

 

[LogansDad]

good luck this season

Thanks, j-man, you too!

 

[staz]

How many games will this team win?

77

Tie-Breaker Questions

(Hitting reply and then responding to them is probably the easiest way to log your answers. Any answer that hedges a bet with two possibilities is disqualified, although "none" is always acceptable. fWAR and baseballreference.com's formula for qualifying players will be used unless otherwise noted.)​

​

-Team leader in Wins? Brayan Bello​

-Team leader in Losses? Nick Pivetta​

-Team leader in Saves? Kenley Jansen​

-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? Brayan Bello​

-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Masataka Yoshida​

-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? Masataka Yoshida​

-Team leader in OPS? Rafael Devers​

-Team leader in HR? Rafael Devers​

-Team leader for RBI? Rafael Devers​

-Team leader in Stolen Bases? Jarren Duran​

-Team leader in HBP? Rafael Devers​

-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? Enmanuel Valdez​

-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? Ceddanne Rafaela​

-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? Bello, Pivetta, Crawford​

-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? Tyler O'Neill​

-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster (26 man) who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Liam Hendriks​

-Position Player not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Vaughn Grissom​

-Pitcher not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Liam Hendriks​

-Position Player not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Vaughn Grissom​

-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no shoves - a true swing)? Bobby Dalbec​

-Name a player who has ML playing time for the Sox in 2024 who is traded away during the season. Kenley Jansen​

(counts for 2 points if you name the player first traded by the Sox.)​

-Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). Bobby Dalbec​

-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Bobby Dalbec​

-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Trevor Story​

-Manager on the final day of the season? Alex Cora​

-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? 0​

 

[Rovin Romine]

How many games will this team win? 77. . .

Safe by at least a foot.

 

[Rovin Romine]

First Pitch made - Castillo throws a ball to Duran at 10:12.

LETS GO!

 

[Rovin Romine]

All right, we're underway with a 1-0 record and 161 to play.

This year we have 110 participants, and their picks are below. I think they're accurate, but if I made a mistake, please let me know - your actual post will control, so do not edit it.

***

We have already had two eliminations. On the very low end @Trapaholic and @Bosoxman2004 opined in the thread but did not commit to the Sox winning a single game. Better luck next year, guys.

That leaves @tims4wins as our current viable low pick with 58. . .but with a 5 game gap between him and @Ale Xander (at 63), he will prevail if the total wins are 60 or less. 61 wins results in tie-breakers between these two. There's a similar gap between Ale and @AB in DC (at 67). So Ale would win at 64, 63, 62, 61, and 60 wins - with tiebreakers for 65 and 61. AB wins on a 67 or a 66. They tie-break for a 65.

On the high end @Red(s)HawksFan picked 96, and as our highest picker, will prevail on anything above it. He might prevail on 95 wins, but has a tie-breaker with @PhabPhour20 for that. Phab will win on a 94 or 93, while @PrometheusWakefield will win on a 92 or 91.

The rest of us all have a tie-breaker in play for our exact win pick, except for @OCD SS, who stands alone on 71.

***

In past years the thread has sometimes been used to discuss the progress of the team (especially toward the end of the season) - please feel free to do so here if you're inclined. I'll post up the usual countdown posts toward the end of the season.

Last year @JM3 aggregated all the individual picks in the tie-breakers, so we could see who we all favored to do what. I thought that was pretty cool. If anyone wants to take on that piece this year, please PM me. . .or just do it.

And I think that's about it?



Pinging: @Red(s)HawksFan @PhabPhour20 @PrometheusWakefield @Huck Masterson @The Gray Eagle @Rovin Romine @bstoker7 @johnnyfromspain @LynnRice75 @AlNipper49 @Amos Otis regrets @Heating up in the bullpen @Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat @chawson @Daniel_Son @rockchalkredsox @Whoop-La White @LogansDad @Apisith @loneredseat @Sandy Leon Trotsky @Sin Duda @mraymond99 @ShaneTrot @Stan Papi Was Framed @CR67dream @chrisfont9 @Cassvt2023 @Sox in the sticks @budcrew08 @simplicio @steeplechase3k @thestardawg @nvalvo @Jason Bae @bg1025 @absintheofmalaise @Dewey'sCannon @YTF @Otis Foster @RS2004foreever @pk1627 @Devizier @tbrown_01923 @The Jogger @Max Power @Jordu @Yelling At Clouds @moretsyndrome @CarolinaBeerGuy @jose melendez @pinkhatfan @oumbi @KDAWG @HfxBob @Reverse Curve @iddoc @TomRicardo @RedOctober3829 @1974pawsox @Muddy Chicken @cantor44 @Just a bit outside @donutogre @Pozo the Clown @Sprowl @streeter88 @Traut @patinorange @j-man @Mugsy's Jock @Son of Mark @John Marzano Olympic Hero @DennyDoyle'sBoil @staz @Coachster @sezwho @The Filthy One @Lose Remerswaal @jwbasham84 @DeadlySplitter @Buck Showalter @gibreel @The B's Knees @jteders1 @6-5 Sadler @DLowe 04 Unsung Hero @FlexFlexerson @Curtis Pride @Harry Hooper @Big Papi's Mango Salsa @Papo The Snow Tiger @PC Drunken Friar @Frazee's Rope @nattysez @mikeford @OCD SS @DanoooME @opes @BravesField @Salem's Lot @bernie carb 33 @brs3 @Quatchie @Bigpupp @AB in DC @Ale Xander @tims4wins @Trapaholic @Bosoxman2004

 

[tims4wins]

I hope I am wrong by the ASB

 

[Daniel_Son]

Thanks for putting this together, Rove. Let's play ball!

 

[chrisfont9]

Trapaholic and Bosoxman have already been eliminated.

 

[FlexFlexerson]

At least our fallen 0-wins brethren are free from the anxiety of the coveted NO PRIZE riding on every game from here on out.

 

[AB in DC]

Trapaholic and Bosoxman have already been eliminated.

Well, they're still in it if the Sox have 28 or fewer wins. Just don't root for another COVID year, guys

 

[Quatchie]

68 wins
Cora fired by mid August
Trevor Story and significant $ dealt at the deadline for prospects
Bello TJS (don't want or wish this, but it seems we are in a dark timeline right now where nothing goes right)

I should still get partial credit for the Story prediction in that he won't be playing for us after the deadline (or much at all before)

 

[Rovin Romine]

I should still get partial credit for the Story prediction in that he won't be playing for us after the deadline (or much at all before)

Negative Nellys are their own reward. To themselves at least.

 

[HfxBob]

Meanwhile, Positive Pollys are tripling their drug orders.

 

[sezwho]

Meanwhile, Positive Pollys are tripling their drug orders.

Even Objective Ollie is starting to feel a little snake bit though.