[snip]
However, the story of this matchup likely boils down to how Barca's reshaped backline deals with Madrid's firepower. So far, Mingueza, FDJ, and Lenglet (with Araujo starting to work in) have been excellent. Mingueza has real speed and has been a huge development this year, who's been overshadowed (understandably) by the development of Pedri and Dest. He'll have his hands full with Vini and that duel will dictate a lot about this match.
Mingueza was awesome and kept Vini mostly in check, even with Dest playing high.
While Lenglet had a dip in form to begin the season and while Barca transformed from a back 4 to 3, he's found some of his confidence again. While I worry about Barca's left flank more than the right, I worry less about Madrid's RW than their LW.
Welp, most of Madrid's offense came down Barca's left, and Alba had a terrible match. Props to Valverde who proved a game changer, carrying the ball for the MF while Kroos and Modric dictated from deeper.
Perhaps Zizou will setup more conservatively to protect his CBs. Dembele is on excellent form and his switch to CF has allowed Messi, Pedri, et al. to slot into place. Grizi still doesn't quite fit in perfectly, but his incredible workrate allows Alba to join the attack without sacrificing too much protection for Lenglet.
...
This should be an even matchup and I expect that Barca will win the possession battle. It wouldn't be a terrible idea for Madrid to invite the pressure, try to get Kroos/Modric the outlet ball, and release the front 3 on the counter where Barca's defenders aren't particularly well adapted to 1v1 defending in space. Barca will try to win the ball back high up the pitch and that can open space in a hurry if the press isn't effective. Madrid is very adept at breaking the press.
Yeah, this is pretty much exactly what happened. Dembele is doing a good job moonlighting as a CF, but he can't play against deep defenses. His value comes from running in behind. This was a match where Barca needed a true striker, and decided against starting Martin or trying Grizi there.
Rather, Madrid's biggest risk will be if they play a high line--it provides an advantage by shrinking space between the lines but also opens up the possibility for Messi to release Dembele in behind. That's been a major tactic for Barca over the last month--Messi drops into MF and plays Dembele in behind for 1 and 2 touch shots.
Zizou did a tactic! Props to Madrid.
Barca played much better in the second half and made it interesting. Encouraging that a young team 2-3 pieces away could hang with Madrid, even if this version isn't great. Barca still need a new LB, DMF (or CB), and Striker this summer.
For the Liga race, Atleti drew with Betis and I think it will be hard for them to recover. I'd handicap the trophy as:
Real = 50%, only real threat is fatigue due to UCL and injuries (they need Ramos and Varane back)
Barca = 30%, should be able to handle the rest of La Liga if they continue to improve. Showdown with Atleti looms.
Atleti = 20%, trending down at the wrong time. Showdown with Barca looms.
Sevilla = locked into 4th UCL spot.
Sociedad, Betis, and Villareal in a fun race for top 6 and the 2 UEL spots.
At the bottom:
Getafe = 30
Huesca = 27
Valladolid = 27
--
Elche = 26
Alaves = 24
Eibar = 23
Pretty tight, and it would be a shame if mighty Eibar finally fall after a very impressive run in the top flight. I wish Getafe would get relegated, fuck those guys.