Joe Posnanski on Mookie Betts
- Thread starter John Marzano Olympic Hero
- Start date
Hm... I wonder what JMOH could have meant when he expressed that more threads were better? Could it be that more threads are better?
Well it's not a great sign when the first line of a column is...
EDIT: Yeah, it was worth it. Not a fascinating or entertaining column, but informative.
EDIT2: Also agree with bosox79 below -- without having looked at the data it stands to reason that an improved 2-3-4 in the 2018 line-up is also contributing mightily to the number and quality of strikes that Mookie can choose to destroy.
But I have faith in Joe and will try to soldier on!
EDIT: Yeah, it was worth it. Not a fascinating or entertaining column, but informative.
EDIT2: Also agree with bosox79 below -- without having looked at the data it stands to reason that an improved 2-3-4 in the 2018 line-up is also contributing mightily to the number and quality of strikes that Mookie can choose to destroy.
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I think some of Betts struggles last year were due to him seeing less pitches to hit and him adjusting to that. His walk rate in 2015 and 2016 were 7.0% and 6.7%, respectively. In 2017, it jumped to 10.8. This year, it's at 10.4, but he's had a season to adjust, so while being just as patient as before, he is also more aggressive (which is what the article is stating). He's also hitting the ball in the air more than ever, From 2014-2017, he had a GB/FB ratio of .74, .62, .72, .69... this year it is a remarkable .46. Obviously, his HR/FB% is much higher too. He had a career HR/FB% of 8.4% heading into this season. This season, he's at 17.6%.
I'm sure some regression is coming but then again, this is a guy who made an adjustment in one off season to go from a .267/.352/.302 non prospect to a .314/.407/.516 top prospect. I think seasons like 2016 (with a better walk rate) are going to be more of the norm. He is a special player.
edit: I also think he was a bit unlucky in 2017. Had he hit .305 instead of .264, his season looks more in line with 2016. I don't think there will be many seasons where Betts hits under .290, nevermind .264. His Babip in 2017 was .268. Every other year of his career, it's been at least .310.
I'm sure some regression is coming but then again, this is a guy who made an adjustment in one off season to go from a .267/.352/.302 non prospect to a .314/.407/.516 top prospect. I think seasons like 2016 (with a better walk rate) are going to be more of the norm. He is a special player.
edit: I also think he was a bit unlucky in 2017. Had he hit .305 instead of .264, his season looks more in line with 2016. I don't think there will be many seasons where Betts hits under .290, nevermind .264. His Babip in 2017 was .268. Every other year of his career, it's been at least .310.
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Would you have read it? Would a lot of people have read it?
Edit: cut out a part that was too snarky.
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Is there a publicly-available source that shows launch angle per batted ball (or launch angle per hit, etc.)? The above does suggest that Mookie is a beneficiary of a focus on improving launch angle, and anecdotal evidence like Mookie's apparently-frequent discussions with JDM on the subject would support that idea as well, but I can't find a place to compare Mookie's 2017 vs. 2018 launch angle numbers to back that up (would have thought Baseball Savant would have it but didn't see it there).
In theory, you could create a log of all Mookie's batted ball events - with exit velocity and launch angle - by scraping the game feed on Baseball Savant (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed). You could even break out the game feed pitch-by-pitch to get pitch type, speed, and location. Of course, this would be a bitch, but it *is* possible.
While reading the article, it hit me that no matter how we try to break it down and analyze it to death, the secret to being a good hitter always comes back to Teddy Ballgame and his credo: "Get a good pitch to hit."
Edit: BTW, that's not me shitting on advanced stats, which have been incredibly helpful in translating and refining Williams' philosophy. I'm just amazed at how far ahead of his time Williams was.
Edit: BTW, that's not me shitting on advanced stats, which have been incredibly helpful in translating and refining Williams' philosophy. I'm just amazed at how far ahead of his time Williams was.
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Yeah, and that's already out of date because he got another one on his HR last night.
Possibly even more amazing is that, according to Baseball Savant, Betts is actually underperforming slightly based on the quality of his contact to date - his wOBA is .489 but his expected wOBA is .528.
In Ted's day the writers, or some of them, would get on him mercilessly for letting pitches a couple or three inches off the plate with men on base go by. Should compromise his great eye and swing at those to drive in runs. Of course, he was his own man and would as soon tell them to go, you know, themselves. Modern day, you'd never hear Pujols or Trout, or Mookie criticized for letting borderline balls go by.
What I love about Betts is his voracious appetite for knowledge in the pursuit of making himself a better player. Obviously, this Posnanski piece touches on his taking advice from Cora to heart. This piece from Monday's Globe touches on how Betts was all over JD Martinez from the first day about what he does to prepare himself. Martinez is a bit of an odd ball in that he drills with all kinds of toys (a dodgeball, disc golf discs, and others) and carries a duffel bag of them on the road.
Benintendi is quoted as saying something along the lines of finding it strange but if it works for JD, more power to him. Betts, though, didn't shrug his shoulders and say "whatever", he was asking questions and trying things out immediately.
Of course, after being impressed with Betts' inquisitiveness, my next thought was what brand golf discs was Martinez using and does he also use them for their intended purpose?
Benintendi is quoted as saying something along the lines of finding it strange but if it works for JD, more power to him. Betts, though, didn't shrug his shoulders and say "whatever", he was asking questions and trying things out immediately.
Of course, after being impressed with Betts' inquisitiveness, my next thought was what brand golf discs was Martinez using and does he also use them for their intended purpose?
I remember Remy talking about this last year, constantly asking Butterfield all kinds of questions.
The relentless pursuit of baseball perfection!
The relentless pursuit of baseball perfection!
Are they not called Frisbees anymore?What I love about Betts is his voracious appetite for knowledge in the pursuit of making himself a better player. Obviously, this Posnanski piece touches on his taking advice from Cora to heart. This piece from Monday's Globe touches on how Betts was all over JD Martinez from the first day about what he does to prepare himself. Martinez is a bit of an odd ball in that he drills with all kinds of toys (a dodgeball, disc golf discs, and others) and carries a duffel bag of them on the road.
Benintendi is quoted as saying something along the lines of finding it strange but if it works for JD, more power to him. Betts, though, didn't shrug his shoulders and say "whatever", he was asking questions and trying things out immediately.
Of course, after being impressed with Betts' inquisitiveness, my next thought was what brand golf discs was Martinez using and does he also use them for their intended purpose?
Per MLBN this morning, Betts numbers on pitches Statcast categories as "Offspeed":
2017
In Play (PA): 201 (28.2% of total)
BA: .242
HR: 7
SLG: .407
Exit Velo: 86.2
2018
In Play (PA): 48 (25.5% of total)
BA: .348
HR: 4
SLG: .804
Exit Velo: 93.5
Combined with Posnanski's numbers, it appears the key outcome of whatever Betts has done is allowing him to keep either his weight back or his bat in the zone for longer, so he's still on-time to breaking balls when sitting fastball. I'd wager breaking balls account for the majority of his drop in O-Swing%, and by my eye test he seems to be shitting allllll over any slop n' spinners that are left up in the zone (like the one last night) more consistently than before.
2017
In Play (PA): 201 (28.2% of total)
BA: .242
HR: 7
SLG: .407
Exit Velo: 86.2
2018
In Play (PA): 48 (25.5% of total)
BA: .348
HR: 4
SLG: .804
Exit Velo: 93.5
Combined with Posnanski's numbers, it appears the key outcome of whatever Betts has done is allowing him to keep either his weight back or his bat in the zone for longer, so he's still on-time to breaking balls when sitting fastball. I'd wager breaking balls account for the majority of his drop in O-Swing%, and by my eye test he seems to be shitting allllll over any slop n' spinners that are left up in the zone (like the one last night) more consistently than before.
I read this yesterday and was happy to read that Betts didn't just guffaw like it seems Martinez' other teammates do. He wants to learn, get better. I think that's great.
It seemed like he popped up so many off speed pitches last year, like his stride timing was just off and he ended up lunging toward the pitch just enough to turn a screamer into a dud. I've seen so little of that this season. He has been an absolute joy to watch. That home run last night was a missile. Probably a single at Fenway.
Another amazing Mookie stat they flashed on NESN yesterday was his OPS with two strikes this year. It was 1.150 (roughly) before the two strike home run, more than double the league average.
To me the highlight of the article was when it recognized that:
He's not really being more aggressive (36% vs 37% swing rate is basically noise, and the first pitch swing rates are essentially similar) in the sense that most people mean by that—he's not going up there looking to swing, and he's not unwilling to take a walk.
What he is doing is recognizing the strike zone better, and swinging at more pitches in the zone and fewer out of it.
If Mookie took up disc golf I wonder how long it would take him to be better than me. I'd guess less than a week.What I love about Betts is his voracious appetite for knowledge in the pursuit of making himself a better player. Obviously, this Posnanski piece touches on his taking advice from Cora to heart. This piece from Monday's Globe touches on how Betts was all over JD Martinez from the first day about what he does to prepare himself. Martinez is a bit of an odd ball in that he drills with all kinds of toys (a dodgeball, disc golf discs, and others) and carries a duffel bag of them on the road.
Benintendi is quoted as saying something along the lines of finding it strange but if it works for JD, more power to him. Betts, though, didn't shrug his shoulders and say "whatever", he was asking questions and trying things out immediately.
Of course, after being impressed with Betts' inquisitiveness, my next thought was what brand golf discs was Martinez using and does he also use them for their intended purpose?
Given what I've seen of other natural athletes who've taken up the sport, I think he could be competitive on a pro level (locally, not on tour or anything) within a year. If he wanted to compete for a World championship, he could do it within three years.
Yes I would read it. I love all of Joe's stuff including columns, podcasts; tv appearences etc...It is funny that a few years ago, the Posnanski thread was updated almost daily. I don"t think its been touched in a year. Just goes to show you what happens when you move from place to place...let's hope Mookie never has to travel from team to team and stays a Red Sox.