With all due respect, Hanley's splits are beside the point.
Our payroll today is roughly $200M after arb payouts.
In 2019, $26.33 million will come off the books in Kimbrel, Kelly, Pomeranz and Craig.
Also in 2019, we'll have arb increases for Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Barnes, Smith, Thornburg, Leon, Hembree, Rodriguez, Wright, Smith, Workman, Elias, and Hembree. There's also a $2.5MM increase for Sale (which I'm not sure affects AAV).
Not all those guys will be on the roster next year, but realistically, that money is a wash. It leaves us with roughly the same $35MM of space under the $237 million figure in 2019 that we have now—except unlike this offseason, we'll need to fill 300 elite innings vacated by Kimbrel, Kelly, and Pomeranz. How well does Hanley have to play this season for you to believe his age-35 season is worth picking up for $22M? For two-thirds of our available money? In a winter with an historic FA class?
I love Hanley, but to me, the answer is impossibly high. If he's OPSing .650 in June, the decision's easy. But if the Sox open the season with Hanley and he's putting up a .900 OPS over 400 PAs by the end of July, DD's fucked. Cutting or trading him would destroy clubhouse morale, and would be seen by players, the union, and the league as a naked declaration that the Sox are trying to keep his option from vesting. The decision has to be made now.