It seems the bolded question has gone unanswered. One thought: If he keeps doing what he's doing he's basically following Mookie's final pace -- A+ and AA one year, a half year of AAA, then called up. So, count on him? Probably not, since it would be insane to expect him to continue this high level production for the rest of this season at AA and half of next year at AAA. But I think he's got a shot.
Yeah. I think the Sox are somewhat aggressive so an ETA of mid 2023 for Rafaela isn't out of the question. Though the FO is different.
Xander had the same career path once he hit A+. Half a year at A+/AA. Then next year, he starts at AA and ends in Boston. Benintendi as well, though Benintendi spend 1/3 of a year in A+, about half a year in AA, never played AAA and went right to Boston.
Those 3 players were much higher ranked than Rafaela (kinda). Betts was never officially ranked once the 2014 season started. The debate after 2013 was whether he should be ranked higher than Garin Cecchini and if his power was a mirage. The hope was he'd turn into Tony Phillips. Then 2014 happened. His mid season rankings in 2014 are top 5, but they are not official.
I think even if Rafaela keeps it up all year, the highest we'll see him rated is like 50-60. If he gets off to a great start next year, that's when he enters Betts/Bogaerts/Benny territory, and probably finds himself in Boston by August 2023. Blake Swihart also ranked pretty highly but was always a notch below those 3. With hindsight, I think Blake was incredibly overrated. I'd put Mayer and Casas a notch behind the 3 B's too, though I think they deserve their rankings unlike Swihart.
Betts made it to the Majors at 21, Xander at 20. Benny at 21. Rafaela is already 21 and turns 22 in September. The person I'm quoting didn't use the term, but I don't think Rafaela would have to be a generational talent to crack the lineup next year anyway.
Rafaela's big red flag is the 12bb/60k in 273 PA. The strikeouts aren't actually a problem but unless he's going to be a .300 hitter, he's going to struggle to get on base. I'm also guessing his ISO isn't going to be close to .300, but the fact it's close to .300 right now after 270 PA is a very good sign that the power isn't a total mirage. This is especially true since it dates back to the end of last year (last 209 PA in 2021: .285/.325/.523, .311 BAbip, 9bb/37k). He's now at 479 PA with an ISO over .250. He can play any position, has plus speed and a plus arm. He'll be easy to find a spot for whether he's a legit top 20 prospect or more Brock Holt. If/when teams start to take him as a legit power threat, he'll hopefully start to draw more walks.
Really, anyone in AA right now could be in Boston in August 2023 if things go right. Starting the year in Boston is another question all together. Mid season promotions aren't exactly rare, though they aren't a given (Nick Yorke probably doesn't reach Portland this year). The fun thing with Rafaela is you can literally slot him anywhere on the field outside of 1b/C and have a plus defender with a plus arm and plus speed. And if this year is any indication, a plus bat.
Boston does have quite a few players hitting well with versatile defensive profiles. Nice thing to have, though none of them rank that highly on official sites. Yet anyway. Well, Mayer but he's not moving off SS.