In all sports, I love certain clubs that set a benchmark for player success. The 10,000 yard rusher club in football, 100 goals in the EPL, 20,000 points in the NBA etc. A lot of the times they are arbitrary lines drawn around nice even numbers, but as someone that loves history, I like that we have these historic indicators of someone being a big deal.
Baseball though, which has so many great clubs, is in some trouble. It does look like the 300 Win Club is dead; it would take something truly extraordinary to reach that milestone again. The 500 Home Run club is still around, but we all know the steroid era took kind of the charm out of that club for a lot of fans. If a favorite player hits #500 it is a big deal in that market, but it's lost some allure for sure.
That brings me to the 3,000 hit club. The 3,000 hit club is no joke; 32 players in history and all would be easy HoF calls even if they didn't hit that barrier, with perhaps the exception of Craig Biggio. It also spans the time of baseball history, unlike the 500 home run club or the 300 win club, which largely ignore certain parts of baseball history. From Cap Anson to Ichiro Suzuki, it highlights great players from the professionalization of baseball to the global game today. With the exception of A-Rod and Palmeiro (minor members of the club) it also remains untainted by the steroid era. I also enjoy that some truly amazing players, for whatever reason, didn't make the cut. Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds and Ted Williams are on the outside looking in. Maybe that highlights how flukey the club may be, but I like that some of the best players who ever lived didn't make the cut.
We do have an issue though; and that is the prospects of adding new members to the club are looking kind of grim. Now, Miguel Cabrera (2,987 career hits) will become the 33rd member early next season, barring injury, but after that, there doesn't seem to be a ton of great candidates lined up in the future. After Cabrera the rest of the active leaders (Pujols is actually the active leader but is already in) are guys near the end of the line who still have several seasons to go (Robinson Cano, Yadier Molina, Nelson Cruz) and have basically no shot of reaching 3,000. After that there aren't a ton of obvious candidates.
A big reason for this is the game has changed in a way where launch angle and slugging percentage trumps going for singles, and walks are also more prioritized. This means that fewer hits are being recorded, and less players are racking up the high single-season totals necessary to crack the 3,000 club. This is reflected in the league-wide batting average (.244 in 2021) being the lowest it's been since 1968.
To reach the 3,000 hit club, you would have to average 175 hits per season for a little more than 17 seasons. Obviously in previous eras, the league leader would comfortably knock over 200 hits, but basically if you dream about reaching the 3,000 hit club, you better be looking at banging out 175 hits each year. This season, only 9 players collected 175 hits or more, and none collected more than 200. In 2011, 19 players collected at least 175, including five who topped 200. In 1991, 16 players collected at least 175. In 1980, 22 players reached that mark. Maybe this season is a weird, COVID-related fluke, (18 players collected 175 or more hits in 2019) but I think it's obvious the game is moving away from focusing on batting average and singles hitters and focusing more on slugging and OPS.
Another factor is players are not playing as long as they used to. All of the members of the 3,000 club played for a very long time. Wade Boggs and Clemente have the shortest careers, at 18 years a piece, but most of them played at least 20 seasons. Currently only three players (Pujols, Cabrera and Molina) have played at least 18 seasons. Only 7 active players have played at least 15 seasons. I've heard about this discussed on other articles, but players are really not playing into their late, late 30s or early 40s anymore. Obviously the 3,000 hit guys are all-time greats who might end up sticking around too long because they have that kind of sway, but it would be troubling for players trying to join a stat that requires incredible longevity.
After Cabrera we are unlikely to see someone get to 3,000 for quite a while. Are there any active players on the horizon who look like they have a shot?
Mike Trout: Trout is basically already an all-time great, but he is going to have trouble reaching the 3,000 hit club. He is 30 and not quite half-way there (1,419 career hits). He started very young in his career, which is a necessity to making the club unless you are Ichiro, and looks primed to remain a great player in baseball, but he would need to maintain his current level of performance well into his late-30s to have a shot. He is also a victim, much like Ruth, Bonds and Williams, of walking a lot, which limits his chances at getting hits. He hasn't cracked 150 hits since 2016, and having basically two lost seasons (with the pandemic shortened year and this injured year in 2021) really did a number on his chances.
Jose Altuve: Altuve is one of our two best candidates, imo, to join the club, but he is still a long shot. He has 1,777 career hits and turns 32 next May. He had some really big years in his 20s (topping 200 hits four straight seasons) which gave him a big jump on things. However, he has tailed off in recent years, collecting 167 hits in 2021 and 149 hits in 2019. If he can stick around 167 hits he should be in decent shape since those big peak years help his average, but the real issue is that he clearly appears to be declining. Injuries have zapped his once elite speed, and he has missed time in recent seasons. He also is hitting more home runs at the expense of his batting average, which analytically is smart if he doesn't have the speed/baserunning prowess to make singles as effective for him as they once were. Altuve could make it if he maintains his current level for the next 6-7 years, and avoids serious injury, but there are some red flags.
Freddie Freeman: Freeman is the other best bet. He has 1,704 hits and just turned 32. Unlike Altuve, Freeman doesn't appear to be declining. He won the MVP in 2020 and recorded 180 hits in 2021. He also plays a much less physically demanding position and has never relied on speed to leg out a lot of hits. He is one of the most consistent players in baseball over the last decade and doesn't show any real signs of regression in his portfolio. Still, he is 32 and just a little over half-way there, which means he will need to maintain his current form into late 30s to have a shot. It will all come down to health; players like Freeman can age relatively gracefully and perhaps he ends up as a DH for the last few years that put him over the top.
Eric Hosmer: Hosmer has similar stats to Freeman in that he will be 32 in a few days and has 1,629 career hits. The problem with Hosmer is he simply isn't as good as these other players and has hit .264 over the past few seasons, he has almost no shot.
DJ LeMaheiu: LeMahieu has had a lot of hits in recent years, but is 33 and not even halfway (1,454) there. No chance.
Manny Machado: Machado is similar in age/hit total to Trout. He will be 30 in July and has 1,425 career hits. So he will be halfway there by the time he turns 30, which is a key milestone to hit. That being said he is a .280 career hitter who usually is around 160-180 hits per year. He strikes more like Freeman, except he plays a more physically demanding position and his career is less consistent. He would have to play at a high level for another 10 years, which is not impossible but would be rare.
Baseball though, which has so many great clubs, is in some trouble. It does look like the 300 Win Club is dead; it would take something truly extraordinary to reach that milestone again. The 500 Home Run club is still around, but we all know the steroid era took kind of the charm out of that club for a lot of fans. If a favorite player hits #500 it is a big deal in that market, but it's lost some allure for sure.
That brings me to the 3,000 hit club. The 3,000 hit club is no joke; 32 players in history and all would be easy HoF calls even if they didn't hit that barrier, with perhaps the exception of Craig Biggio. It also spans the time of baseball history, unlike the 500 home run club or the 300 win club, which largely ignore certain parts of baseball history. From Cap Anson to Ichiro Suzuki, it highlights great players from the professionalization of baseball to the global game today. With the exception of A-Rod and Palmeiro (minor members of the club) it also remains untainted by the steroid era. I also enjoy that some truly amazing players, for whatever reason, didn't make the cut. Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds and Ted Williams are on the outside looking in. Maybe that highlights how flukey the club may be, but I like that some of the best players who ever lived didn't make the cut.
We do have an issue though; and that is the prospects of adding new members to the club are looking kind of grim. Now, Miguel Cabrera (2,987 career hits) will become the 33rd member early next season, barring injury, but after that, there doesn't seem to be a ton of great candidates lined up in the future. After Cabrera the rest of the active leaders (Pujols is actually the active leader but is already in) are guys near the end of the line who still have several seasons to go (Robinson Cano, Yadier Molina, Nelson Cruz) and have basically no shot of reaching 3,000. After that there aren't a ton of obvious candidates.
A big reason for this is the game has changed in a way where launch angle and slugging percentage trumps going for singles, and walks are also more prioritized. This means that fewer hits are being recorded, and less players are racking up the high single-season totals necessary to crack the 3,000 club. This is reflected in the league-wide batting average (.244 in 2021) being the lowest it's been since 1968.
To reach the 3,000 hit club, you would have to average 175 hits per season for a little more than 17 seasons. Obviously in previous eras, the league leader would comfortably knock over 200 hits, but basically if you dream about reaching the 3,000 hit club, you better be looking at banging out 175 hits each year. This season, only 9 players collected 175 hits or more, and none collected more than 200. In 2011, 19 players collected at least 175, including five who topped 200. In 1991, 16 players collected at least 175. In 1980, 22 players reached that mark. Maybe this season is a weird, COVID-related fluke, (18 players collected 175 or more hits in 2019) but I think it's obvious the game is moving away from focusing on batting average and singles hitters and focusing more on slugging and OPS.
Another factor is players are not playing as long as they used to. All of the members of the 3,000 club played for a very long time. Wade Boggs and Clemente have the shortest careers, at 18 years a piece, but most of them played at least 20 seasons. Currently only three players (Pujols, Cabrera and Molina) have played at least 18 seasons. Only 7 active players have played at least 15 seasons. I've heard about this discussed on other articles, but players are really not playing into their late, late 30s or early 40s anymore. Obviously the 3,000 hit guys are all-time greats who might end up sticking around too long because they have that kind of sway, but it would be troubling for players trying to join a stat that requires incredible longevity.
After Cabrera we are unlikely to see someone get to 3,000 for quite a while. Are there any active players on the horizon who look like they have a shot?
Mike Trout: Trout is basically already an all-time great, but he is going to have trouble reaching the 3,000 hit club. He is 30 and not quite half-way there (1,419 career hits). He started very young in his career, which is a necessity to making the club unless you are Ichiro, and looks primed to remain a great player in baseball, but he would need to maintain his current level of performance well into his late-30s to have a shot. He is also a victim, much like Ruth, Bonds and Williams, of walking a lot, which limits his chances at getting hits. He hasn't cracked 150 hits since 2016, and having basically two lost seasons (with the pandemic shortened year and this injured year in 2021) really did a number on his chances.
Jose Altuve: Altuve is one of our two best candidates, imo, to join the club, but he is still a long shot. He has 1,777 career hits and turns 32 next May. He had some really big years in his 20s (topping 200 hits four straight seasons) which gave him a big jump on things. However, he has tailed off in recent years, collecting 167 hits in 2021 and 149 hits in 2019. If he can stick around 167 hits he should be in decent shape since those big peak years help his average, but the real issue is that he clearly appears to be declining. Injuries have zapped his once elite speed, and he has missed time in recent seasons. He also is hitting more home runs at the expense of his batting average, which analytically is smart if he doesn't have the speed/baserunning prowess to make singles as effective for him as they once were. Altuve could make it if he maintains his current level for the next 6-7 years, and avoids serious injury, but there are some red flags.
Freddie Freeman: Freeman is the other best bet. He has 1,704 hits and just turned 32. Unlike Altuve, Freeman doesn't appear to be declining. He won the MVP in 2020 and recorded 180 hits in 2021. He also plays a much less physically demanding position and has never relied on speed to leg out a lot of hits. He is one of the most consistent players in baseball over the last decade and doesn't show any real signs of regression in his portfolio. Still, he is 32 and just a little over half-way there, which means he will need to maintain his current form into late 30s to have a shot. It will all come down to health; players like Freeman can age relatively gracefully and perhaps he ends up as a DH for the last few years that put him over the top.
Eric Hosmer: Hosmer has similar stats to Freeman in that he will be 32 in a few days and has 1,629 career hits. The problem with Hosmer is he simply isn't as good as these other players and has hit .264 over the past few seasons, he has almost no shot.
DJ LeMaheiu: LeMahieu has had a lot of hits in recent years, but is 33 and not even halfway (1,454) there. No chance.
Manny Machado: Machado is similar in age/hit total to Trout. He will be 30 in July and has 1,425 career hits. So he will be halfway there by the time he turns 30, which is a key milestone to hit. That being said he is a .280 career hitter who usually is around 160-180 hits per year. He strikes more like Freeman, except he plays a more physically demanding position and his career is less consistent. He would have to play at a high level for another 10 years, which is not impossible but would be rare.