Everyone knows how terrible Craig was last year. He's going to be 30 this season. What are the odds that he can be a good hitter again at that age, after being so godawful last year?
No one knows for sure. Craig's foot injury is probably a big factor in whether he can bounce back or not, and none of us know how much impact that injury will have.
But in the name of optimism, here are some players who were good, then had a terrible season at the plate at age 29, but then bounced back to be good hitters again.
(Players who cratered and then bounced back was discussed a bit on Bill James's site, some of these guys were mentioned by James.)
(OPS+ for a few seasons, then the crappy nightmare age 29 season in bold, then the next three years):
Jermaine Dye: 2003. OPS+ : 120, 135, 110, 110, 38, 105, 118, 151.
Victor Martinez: 2008: 130, 122, 129, 88, 127, 122, 131
Pete Runnels: 1957: 111, 92, 116, 69, 130, 128, 114
Darrell Evans 1976: OPS+ 121, 156, 121, 110, 81, 107, 118, 111
Fred Lynn 1981: OPS+: 133, 176, 130, 86, 142, 129, 132
Tony Phillips: not that great immediately before or after 1988, but was good before, then did bounce back and then go on to be good for a long time: 103, 94, 79, 99, 101, 122
"Not that" Willie Horton: (quite a drop in 1972, but nowhere near as bad as Craig was): 117, 133, 133, 99, 136, 152, 106
Jim Edmonds like Horton dropped a lot but was still average: 137, 123, 123, 95, 147, 149, 158
Travis Jackson: 120, 109, 94, 67, 101, 109, 50
Deron Johnson had a two-year nightmare drop, then bounced back in1969: 119, 131, 103, 78, 80, 112, 114, 135
Allen Craig: 151, 137, 129, 66, ??
Those are just guys who were good then bounced back after a bad year exactly at age 29. Not counting anyone who had their lousy year at age 27, 28 or 30.
Like Tony Goddamn Clark, who put up 128, 126, 120, 125 and 131, before signing with the Red Sox and putting up a 47 OPS+ at age 30. Then he went to the Mets and bounced back to 100, 95 for the Yankees, and then 154 with Arizona.
Jayson Werth went 122, 129, 144, then had a bad year at age 32, dipping a bit below average to a 97 OPS+, before bouncing back with 124, 153 and 134. Another guy whose bad year was nowhere near as bad as Craig's.
Werth has a crazy kind of record though, with a deeper crater at an earlier age: 115 OPS+ in his first year with more than 100 PAs, followed by 89 OPS+ at age 26, then an entire missed season, before coming back with 120, 122 and 129 the next three seasons.
Bobby Higginson had his lost year at age 28, not 29. He went 145, 133, 115, 88, then bounced right back to 135, 120, 109.
Mike Lowell was a very solid hitter for years, until a bad year at age 31, which led to his contract being dumped to the Red Sox, which led to him winning World Series MVP: 116, 128, 127, 77, 104, 124, 104
Johnny Damon established himself as a good young CF with the Royals, then after being traded to Oakland had a bad year at age 27. He signed with the Red Sox and bounced back up: 100, 116, 118, 83, 109, 94, 117.
Jason Bay had a bad year at 28, going 132, 150, 138, 94, 134, 134, 105.
Paul Konerko's lousy year was at age 27: OPS+ of 116, 111, 119, 124, 83, 127, 136, 134
Adrian Beltre's nightmare came in his age 30 season: 105, 112, 109, 83, 141, 131, 139.
There was George Scott, who had a nightmarish age 24 season: 107, 138, 40, 95, 118, 107, 124. He was much younger than Craig though, and even he was still a bit below average the next year, before coming back strong.
Another early age crater season was Jim Spencer in 1972 at age 25. He went from a decent enough hitter (OPS+ of 97, 98, 104 in his first three years) to a terrible 60 OPS+ season in 82 games. Then he bounced back up to 100, 108 and 105 after that. Again, much younger than Craig.
Then there's Reggie "Two Craters" Sanders: 155, 114, 120, down to 99, back up to 134, back down to 76 at age 32, then 117, 107, 131.
Aramis Ramirez was 32 when he had a big dropoff, and then immediately bounced back: 128, 127, 130, 95, 136, 136, 127
Jason Giambi had an injury-plagued age 33 season, but then came back strong: 199, 172, 148, 90, 161, 148, 107.
And there's some late-in-career guys who came back from a terrible year with a dead-cat-bounce year or two, like Eric Karros: starting at age 30, he went 121, 133, 100, then down to 84, a little bounce to 96, then back up to 103 before bottoming out and retiring.
Or how about Carlton Fisk: 134, 102, 115, then 60 as a 38-year-old catcher, then back up to 103, 155, 136, 134, 97 at age 43, then two more part-time seasons after that.
None of these guys is an exact comp for Craig. But it is possible to have a bounce back year after sucking at age 29. Few guys sucked as badly as Craig did, but then again Jermaine Dye sucked even worse and came back strong. (Of course Dye didn't even get 300 at-bats in 2003, while Craig mystifyingly got 461 at-bats last year.)
One thing, though: it seems like even when some of these guys do bounce back, they don't immediately go back to raking, most seem just go back to around average, with some exceptions. An OPS+ of 95-105 seems like the typical next-year rebound, not a 120 or so.
Craig had a 66 overall OPS+ last year, but that was a really bad 78 with the Cardinals followed by an incredibly horrific 22 with Boston. It was garbage time in Boston, and he probably should not have been playing. If he had just stayed on the DL for the rest of the year, after going on there after his first game post-trade, instead of coming back and going 11 for his last 90, his bad season wouldn't be that different from some of these other guys who did bounce back the next year.
On the other hand, Craig was so bad and his injury is so serious that he might well be washed up. He sure looked it at the end of the year.
These comps don't mean much, but it is interesting to look at some guys who went from good to lousy and then back to good. We can just hope that Craig is similar to Dye or Darrell Evans, and not someone who just became useless at age 29.
(Note: edited to add the players noted by Benzinger, and a couple others.)
No one knows for sure. Craig's foot injury is probably a big factor in whether he can bounce back or not, and none of us know how much impact that injury will have.
But in the name of optimism, here are some players who were good, then had a terrible season at the plate at age 29, but then bounced back to be good hitters again.
(Players who cratered and then bounced back was discussed a bit on Bill James's site, some of these guys were mentioned by James.)
(OPS+ for a few seasons, then the crappy nightmare age 29 season in bold, then the next three years):
Jermaine Dye: 2003. OPS+ : 120, 135, 110, 110, 38, 105, 118, 151.
Victor Martinez: 2008: 130, 122, 129, 88, 127, 122, 131
Pete Runnels: 1957: 111, 92, 116, 69, 130, 128, 114
Darrell Evans 1976: OPS+ 121, 156, 121, 110, 81, 107, 118, 111
Fred Lynn 1981: OPS+: 133, 176, 130, 86, 142, 129, 132
Tony Phillips: not that great immediately before or after 1988, but was good before, then did bounce back and then go on to be good for a long time: 103, 94, 79, 99, 101, 122
"Not that" Willie Horton: (quite a drop in 1972, but nowhere near as bad as Craig was): 117, 133, 133, 99, 136, 152, 106
Jim Edmonds like Horton dropped a lot but was still average: 137, 123, 123, 95, 147, 149, 158
Travis Jackson: 120, 109, 94, 67, 101, 109, 50
Deron Johnson had a two-year nightmare drop, then bounced back in1969: 119, 131, 103, 78, 80, 112, 114, 135
Allen Craig: 151, 137, 129, 66, ??
Those are just guys who were good then bounced back after a bad year exactly at age 29. Not counting anyone who had their lousy year at age 27, 28 or 30.
Like Tony Goddamn Clark, who put up 128, 126, 120, 125 and 131, before signing with the Red Sox and putting up a 47 OPS+ at age 30. Then he went to the Mets and bounced back to 100, 95 for the Yankees, and then 154 with Arizona.
Jayson Werth went 122, 129, 144, then had a bad year at age 32, dipping a bit below average to a 97 OPS+, before bouncing back with 124, 153 and 134. Another guy whose bad year was nowhere near as bad as Craig's.
Werth has a crazy kind of record though, with a deeper crater at an earlier age: 115 OPS+ in his first year with more than 100 PAs, followed by 89 OPS+ at age 26, then an entire missed season, before coming back with 120, 122 and 129 the next three seasons.
Bobby Higginson had his lost year at age 28, not 29. He went 145, 133, 115, 88, then bounced right back to 135, 120, 109.
Mike Lowell was a very solid hitter for years, until a bad year at age 31, which led to his contract being dumped to the Red Sox, which led to him winning World Series MVP: 116, 128, 127, 77, 104, 124, 104
Johnny Damon established himself as a good young CF with the Royals, then after being traded to Oakland had a bad year at age 27. He signed with the Red Sox and bounced back up: 100, 116, 118, 83, 109, 94, 117.
Jason Bay had a bad year at 28, going 132, 150, 138, 94, 134, 134, 105.
Paul Konerko's lousy year was at age 27: OPS+ of 116, 111, 119, 124, 83, 127, 136, 134
Adrian Beltre's nightmare came in his age 30 season: 105, 112, 109, 83, 141, 131, 139.
There was George Scott, who had a nightmarish age 24 season: 107, 138, 40, 95, 118, 107, 124. He was much younger than Craig though, and even he was still a bit below average the next year, before coming back strong.
Another early age crater season was Jim Spencer in 1972 at age 25. He went from a decent enough hitter (OPS+ of 97, 98, 104 in his first three years) to a terrible 60 OPS+ season in 82 games. Then he bounced back up to 100, 108 and 105 after that. Again, much younger than Craig.
Then there's Reggie "Two Craters" Sanders: 155, 114, 120, down to 99, back up to 134, back down to 76 at age 32, then 117, 107, 131.
Aramis Ramirez was 32 when he had a big dropoff, and then immediately bounced back: 128, 127, 130, 95, 136, 136, 127
Jason Giambi had an injury-plagued age 33 season, but then came back strong: 199, 172, 148, 90, 161, 148, 107.
And there's some late-in-career guys who came back from a terrible year with a dead-cat-bounce year or two, like Eric Karros: starting at age 30, he went 121, 133, 100, then down to 84, a little bounce to 96, then back up to 103 before bottoming out and retiring.
Or how about Carlton Fisk: 134, 102, 115, then 60 as a 38-year-old catcher, then back up to 103, 155, 136, 134, 97 at age 43, then two more part-time seasons after that.
None of these guys is an exact comp for Craig. But it is possible to have a bounce back year after sucking at age 29. Few guys sucked as badly as Craig did, but then again Jermaine Dye sucked even worse and came back strong. (Of course Dye didn't even get 300 at-bats in 2003, while Craig mystifyingly got 461 at-bats last year.)
One thing, though: it seems like even when some of these guys do bounce back, they don't immediately go back to raking, most seem just go back to around average, with some exceptions. An OPS+ of 95-105 seems like the typical next-year rebound, not a 120 or so.
Craig had a 66 overall OPS+ last year, but that was a really bad 78 with the Cardinals followed by an incredibly horrific 22 with Boston. It was garbage time in Boston, and he probably should not have been playing. If he had just stayed on the DL for the rest of the year, after going on there after his first game post-trade, instead of coming back and going 11 for his last 90, his bad season wouldn't be that different from some of these other guys who did bounce back the next year.
On the other hand, Craig was so bad and his injury is so serious that he might well be washed up. He sure looked it at the end of the year.
These comps don't mean much, but it is interesting to look at some guys who went from good to lousy and then back to good. We can just hope that Craig is similar to Dye or Darrell Evans, and not someone who just became useless at age 29.
(Note: edited to add the players noted by Benzinger, and a couple others.)