New threads are good, the mods say. So, ok here we go.
Two weeks in. A convincing win against what many people felt like was a playoff-caliber team in Houston, with a terrific defense and a dynamic young QB with playmakers on offense. And an ass-kicking by Jacksonville in 100 degree heat. Two weeks out of Edelman's four week suspension. Three guys get injured this week: Chung and Flowers with concussions, and Wise with some sort of arm or hand injury.
If BB sees the first four games as an extension of the preseason (which is something he's said), then he's using these games primarily to evaluate his team and identify the issues, with a long view in mind. Not that he's trying to lose games or whatever, but for him the value is longer-term than the immediate need to win that specific game.
So ok, this is an evaluation time against real competition. Through two games, what issues might he be seeing? If I'm in the role of telling him what I see, here's what I tell him:
1. Hightower needs to move to the Ninkovich role ASAP. He's way way WAY too slow to play linebacker anymore. Glacial. He was never a burner, but he looks like he's 90 years old out there. At DE, he doesn't need his speed so much. Right now that's the single worst contract on the team. I don't think they should cut him, but they could use some help on the end, especially if Wise is hurt for any extended period of time. Hightower is 6'3", 260. Ninkovich was 6'2", 260. Neither would be the biggest DE of course, but big enough to handle the job ok. And it would free Hightower up to not have to cover anyone.
2. I'd move Flowers inside on obvious passing downs. Let Clayborn and Hightower rush from the outside, and use Flowers to get penetration up the middle, something he's proven to be good at.
3. Linebacker still is a massive, massive problem. And I don't know what the solution is. I think Bentley is going to be a really good NFL linebacker, but obviously he's raw right now. Sam might have some promise but he's not ready. Van Noy is a cagey veteran who makes some plays, but also is pretty slow and gets burned a lot in passing situations. They just don't have any big-time players at LB right now, nobody with enough speed and coverage skills to handle coverage in the passing game. And teams will continue to shred them in that part of the field. But if they go with extra DBs to make up for it, they're getting pummeled in the run game. So it's a major, major problem. What's the solution? Well, there may not be one actually. Or they should make a trade. I don't know who might be available and what price makes sense, but this is going to be an ongoing problem for them unless Bentley, Sam, and Grigsby improve dramatically and suddenly.
4. The OL is beat up and losing Wynn really hurts. But they've faced two of the elite defensive fronts in all of football these first two weeks and for the most part they've held up pretty well. They've allowed 4 sacks and 9 QB hits in 74 pass attempts, which isn't too bad at all, especially considering the competition.
5. WR needs some help. Dorsett has been fine. Hogan had two TDs yesterday but hasn't done much on the whole. Now Jax has a great pass defense so it's no shame, but still. They are bringing Britt in today for another look and it wouldn't surprise me if they sign him. Patterson has been a waste. McDaniels looked SO pissed when Patterson fell down on that third and short reception, keeping him from getting a first down. So frustrating. And he's useless on kickoffs because teams don't allow him to get a return. They need to figure him out or let him go. The nice thing is that they're now halfway through the Edelman suspension, and getting him back will be huge. I know the Pats don't have the cap room, but one trade that would be great would be to acquire Fitzgerald and Chandler Jones from a horrible Arizona team and give them a 1st round draft pick in return. Of course, that's way too much money for them to take on but man that would help a lot.
6. On more of an NFL note, the new rules on the kickoff make it almost impossible to have an onside kick. They need a running start to make it doable. I wonder if they could tweak the rules so that if you want to line up five yards back in order to get a running start, you can, but then you HAVE to onside kick. The other team would know it's coming of course, but if you're down a touchdown with 30 seconds left, everyone on earth knows you're onside kicking anyway. The Pats probably would have liked to have onside kicked late in the Jax game but really, right now, it is basically impossible to pull off. And that means comebacks will be harder - something the NFL probably wants to look at.
7. Michel looked ok yesterday. Not dynamic, but not bad. One really nice run of 15, never got to show his stuff really (9 for 19 other than that run of 15). I think he'll be good, and I know they're easing him back into the mix. But Burkhead is banged up, Hill is on IR, Gillislee got released, and White isn't an every down back. So Michel needs to step it up ASAP.
8. Tom Brady still looks fantastic. In the Houston game he missed an open Burkhead on the double move very early in the game, and his long passes always seem to be out of reach (so why on earth throw deep on that third and five in the 3rd Q? ugh). But otherwise he looks sharp. With a depleted WR corps, going against two elite defenses, he's completing 67% of his passes, with 5 TD and 1 INT on a tipped ball. I had expected his numbers to be down during the first few weeks being without Edelman and the new pieces needing to be incorporated into the mix and going against two terrific defenses. I think we're about to see Tom Brady torch some people.
9. Back to the pass rush. It's anemic. Losing Flowers obviously hurt. Clayborn has gotten some upfield pressure, but loses his lane and allowed Bortles to scramble a few times, which hurt. They got a few sacks in game one but zip yesterday. And zip in the Super Bowl. Their coverage people just aren't good enough to hold up against even moderate level QBs when those guys have time to throw. They NEED to get pressure. Right now, that means blitzing. They did blitz some yesterday but it all got picked up by, let's face it, not a great OL that was missing its starting LT. That's a very discouraging sign. Chalk it up to the heat? I dunno. But man, they need to find a way to generate pressure. Try some exotic things, I don't know. But if they can't get pressure, teams are going to absolutely roast this defense in the passing game.
Lots of issues they need to work on, but on the whole, I'm not in any sense in panic mode. The schedule eases up a little and they should figure some things out. Edelman returns in a few weeks and that will help the offense. But now is the time to identify and fix the issues.
Two weeks in. A convincing win against what many people felt like was a playoff-caliber team in Houston, with a terrific defense and a dynamic young QB with playmakers on offense. And an ass-kicking by Jacksonville in 100 degree heat. Two weeks out of Edelman's four week suspension. Three guys get injured this week: Chung and Flowers with concussions, and Wise with some sort of arm or hand injury.
If BB sees the first four games as an extension of the preseason (which is something he's said), then he's using these games primarily to evaluate his team and identify the issues, with a long view in mind. Not that he's trying to lose games or whatever, but for him the value is longer-term than the immediate need to win that specific game.
So ok, this is an evaluation time against real competition. Through two games, what issues might he be seeing? If I'm in the role of telling him what I see, here's what I tell him:
1. Hightower needs to move to the Ninkovich role ASAP. He's way way WAY too slow to play linebacker anymore. Glacial. He was never a burner, but he looks like he's 90 years old out there. At DE, he doesn't need his speed so much. Right now that's the single worst contract on the team. I don't think they should cut him, but they could use some help on the end, especially if Wise is hurt for any extended period of time. Hightower is 6'3", 260. Ninkovich was 6'2", 260. Neither would be the biggest DE of course, but big enough to handle the job ok. And it would free Hightower up to not have to cover anyone.
2. I'd move Flowers inside on obvious passing downs. Let Clayborn and Hightower rush from the outside, and use Flowers to get penetration up the middle, something he's proven to be good at.
3. Linebacker still is a massive, massive problem. And I don't know what the solution is. I think Bentley is going to be a really good NFL linebacker, but obviously he's raw right now. Sam might have some promise but he's not ready. Van Noy is a cagey veteran who makes some plays, but also is pretty slow and gets burned a lot in passing situations. They just don't have any big-time players at LB right now, nobody with enough speed and coverage skills to handle coverage in the passing game. And teams will continue to shred them in that part of the field. But if they go with extra DBs to make up for it, they're getting pummeled in the run game. So it's a major, major problem. What's the solution? Well, there may not be one actually. Or they should make a trade. I don't know who might be available and what price makes sense, but this is going to be an ongoing problem for them unless Bentley, Sam, and Grigsby improve dramatically and suddenly.
4. The OL is beat up and losing Wynn really hurts. But they've faced two of the elite defensive fronts in all of football these first two weeks and for the most part they've held up pretty well. They've allowed 4 sacks and 9 QB hits in 74 pass attempts, which isn't too bad at all, especially considering the competition.
5. WR needs some help. Dorsett has been fine. Hogan had two TDs yesterday but hasn't done much on the whole. Now Jax has a great pass defense so it's no shame, but still. They are bringing Britt in today for another look and it wouldn't surprise me if they sign him. Patterson has been a waste. McDaniels looked SO pissed when Patterson fell down on that third and short reception, keeping him from getting a first down. So frustrating. And he's useless on kickoffs because teams don't allow him to get a return. They need to figure him out or let him go. The nice thing is that they're now halfway through the Edelman suspension, and getting him back will be huge. I know the Pats don't have the cap room, but one trade that would be great would be to acquire Fitzgerald and Chandler Jones from a horrible Arizona team and give them a 1st round draft pick in return. Of course, that's way too much money for them to take on but man that would help a lot.
6. On more of an NFL note, the new rules on the kickoff make it almost impossible to have an onside kick. They need a running start to make it doable. I wonder if they could tweak the rules so that if you want to line up five yards back in order to get a running start, you can, but then you HAVE to onside kick. The other team would know it's coming of course, but if you're down a touchdown with 30 seconds left, everyone on earth knows you're onside kicking anyway. The Pats probably would have liked to have onside kicked late in the Jax game but really, right now, it is basically impossible to pull off. And that means comebacks will be harder - something the NFL probably wants to look at.
7. Michel looked ok yesterday. Not dynamic, but not bad. One really nice run of 15, never got to show his stuff really (9 for 19 other than that run of 15). I think he'll be good, and I know they're easing him back into the mix. But Burkhead is banged up, Hill is on IR, Gillislee got released, and White isn't an every down back. So Michel needs to step it up ASAP.
8. Tom Brady still looks fantastic. In the Houston game he missed an open Burkhead on the double move very early in the game, and his long passes always seem to be out of reach (so why on earth throw deep on that third and five in the 3rd Q? ugh). But otherwise he looks sharp. With a depleted WR corps, going against two elite defenses, he's completing 67% of his passes, with 5 TD and 1 INT on a tipped ball. I had expected his numbers to be down during the first few weeks being without Edelman and the new pieces needing to be incorporated into the mix and going against two terrific defenses. I think we're about to see Tom Brady torch some people.
9. Back to the pass rush. It's anemic. Losing Flowers obviously hurt. Clayborn has gotten some upfield pressure, but loses his lane and allowed Bortles to scramble a few times, which hurt. They got a few sacks in game one but zip yesterday. And zip in the Super Bowl. Their coverage people just aren't good enough to hold up against even moderate level QBs when those guys have time to throw. They NEED to get pressure. Right now, that means blitzing. They did blitz some yesterday but it all got picked up by, let's face it, not a great OL that was missing its starting LT. That's a very discouraging sign. Chalk it up to the heat? I dunno. But man, they need to find a way to generate pressure. Try some exotic things, I don't know. But if they can't get pressure, teams are going to absolutely roast this defense in the passing game.
Lots of issues they need to work on, but on the whole, I'm not in any sense in panic mode. The schedule eases up a little and they should figure some things out. Edelman returns in a few weeks and that will help the offense. But now is the time to identify and fix the issues.