Do you think the Royals success might influence the way teams construct their bullpens going forward?
Here are a few thoughts. I look forward to reading what SoSH has to say.
He's 26. You cringe at the thought of wasting his arm in the minors. But you also can't stomach letting him develop at the major league level when he hasn't proven that he can get the team through 6 innings. So do you try to groom him for a Herrera/Davis role, try to get 1.5-2.5 WAR out of him, and keep him healthy by giving him a defined role so that he knows when he's going to get up every game?
Bullpens.
Here are a few thoughts. I look forward to reading what SoSH has to say.
- The Royals, with Herrera, Davis, and Holland have changed the demands from their starters. They need starters to get through 6 innings and keep the game close, then turn the ball over to an elite bullpen that can keep the game tied, hold a lead, and/or let the offense deliver more runs. Last night, Ventura was able to go 5.2 and keep the game tied before handing the ball to Herrera, who shut down the Giants offense.
- JJ Cooper at Baseball America keeps a running list of minor league pitchers who touched 100 MPH this year. Here's the list for your reference. I'm speculating, but I'll bet some of these pitchers are plus velocity guys without elite secondary and tertiary pitches, who may not have the command to go 6-7 innings. (Herrera is a great example of this -- he can be really wild, you could never see him going 6 innings.)
- Herrera delivered 1.4 WAR to the Royals this year. Wade Davis delivered 3.1 WAR. These are massive numbers -- Herrera is on the Jered Weaver level, and Davis is in the Sonny Gray/Hisashi Iwakuma level.
- This year, the average SP went 5.53 IP per start. You have to do something with those innings to keep your team in the game. You can't just hand them to a soft-tossing guy with borderline stuff and hope that he can get through a big league offense.
- And, of course, the most interesting debate: the notion of building a shutdown bullpen and intentionally shifting prospects away from a starting role -- where, if they put it all together, they will deliver the most value -- versus moving them to the bullpen, accelerating their arrival in the big leagues, and relying on velocity to build a better relief corps in the middle innings. Do you give every kid 3-4 seasons in the minors to see if he can start? Or, is the pressure to win now so great that you're better off calling these kids up and turning them into relievers?
He's 26. You cringe at the thought of wasting his arm in the minors. But you also can't stomach letting him develop at the major league level when he hasn't proven that he can get the team through 6 innings. So do you try to groom him for a Herrera/Davis role, try to get 1.5-2.5 WAR out of him, and keep him healthy by giving him a defined role so that he knows when he's going to get up every game?
Bullpens.