How Good Are The Sox Now?
- Thread starter Rasputin
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Judging by frequency of appearance:
P&G threads.
A Tonight Show appearance?
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With all due respect, I'm not sure where to began. For most of this post you're just all over the place. I have no earthly idea what the last 2 paragraphs have to do with defining last night's game against the Orioles as "the biggest game of Porcello's career" so let's just go with the bolded. History is going will rate last night's game as being bigger than an ALCS appearance with the opportunity to knot the series at 2 games a piece? IMO history will not even recall last night's game. It wasn't a must win, it wasn't a clincher, it wasn't record setting in any way. It was an excellent performance against a very good team. It happens several times a week EVERY week. He only allowed 4 hits which he's done 8 times this season, he issued 0 BB which he's done 11 times this season, he gave up only 2 earned runs which he's done 16 times this season and struck out 7 which he's done 11 times this season. History may argue that there wasn't really anything to separate this particular start from the other wonderful starts he's had this season. I see it as part of an aggregate that may lead him to a Cy Young award.
Jeff Sullivan dives into the Red Sox offense on FG this morning. The conclusion? 2016 BoSox = 2015 Jays as being historically elite. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-red-sox-are-basically-last-years-blue-jays/
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The offense actually hasn't gone ham in these 6 straight wins... 7-5, 7-4, 6-5, 5-4, 5-2, 5-2. Consistent but no blowouts by any means. The bullpen gutting out key innings and mostly consistent starting pitching are behind the surge.
They're playing without a significant weakness right now. Yeah, Shaw is struggling, Leon hasn't been hot, X has been slow, etc... but each aspect of the team is excelling right now in ways that will win playoff games.
This is the 3rd time this year that they've had at least 6 straight games where they scored 5+ runs in each (8 - 15 May they went 8 games and 27 May - 2 Jun they went 7) vs last year when their 3 longest such streaks were 5, 4 and 4 games. Equally importantly, they haven't had a run longer than 4 games without scoring at least 5+ runs.
Last night was the 89th time they scored at least 5 runs and 74th win. Last year Toronto was the 1st team this decade to have 90 such games - they went 77-13 .856 vs Boston's pace to go 79.4 - 16.1 .830. They're also on pace to exceed the 2009 Yankee's tally for games and wins when scoring 5+ (93: 78-15 .839) which would give them the highest such totals since the '07 Yanks (101: 82-19 .802)
Of course, Boston are 5th to last in MLB in win % when scoring 4 runs or fewer (62gp: 13-49 .210). Medians for scoring 4- are 24 wins, 85 games played and .296 win %) whilst LAD are best in both wins and win % (91gp: 36-55 .396)
Last night was the 89th time they scored at least 5 runs and 74th win. Last year Toronto was the 1st team this decade to have 90 such games - they went 77-13 .856 vs Boston's pace to go 79.4 - 16.1 .830. They're also on pace to exceed the 2009 Yankee's tally for games and wins when scoring 5+ (93: 78-15 .839) which would give them the highest such totals since the '07 Yanks (101: 82-19 .802)
Of course, Boston are 5th to last in MLB in win % when scoring 4 runs or fewer (62gp: 13-49 .210). Medians for scoring 4- are 24 wins, 85 games played and .296 win %) whilst LAD are best in both wins and win % (91gp: 36-55 .396)
September: 6-3 west coast / Toronto trip, 5-2 homestand, 3-0 start to road trip. Only one series loss, narrowly to the O's. 14-5.
Here's how insanely punishing this lineup is: the Sox have five batting-title qualifiers with a wRC+ of 120 or better. There are only 27 such players in the American League. No other team has even four--the Astros, Blue Jays and Mariners have three each.
If we want to give weight to more recent results while keeping a decent sample size, and I do, considering post All Star Game results may be interesting. Looking at home/road results.
Home: 16-12; 6.29 runs scored per game; 4.64 runs allowed per game; .647 Pythag
Road: 23-14; 4.84 runs scored per game; 2.81 runs allowed per game; .748 Pythag
My observation ... the Sox offense is great at home, but the pitching/defense on the road has been even better.
I'm not advocating that the Sox shouldn't make a reasonable effort to pass Cleveland/Texas in the standings, but they and we shouldn't be afraid of playing on the road in the playoffs.
Home: 16-12; 6.29 runs scored per game; 4.64 runs allowed per game; .647 Pythag
Road: 23-14; 4.84 runs scored per game; 2.81 runs allowed per game; .748 Pythag
My observation ... the Sox offense is great at home, but the pitching/defense on the road has been even better.
I'm not advocating that the Sox shouldn't make a reasonable effort to pass Cleveland/Texas in the standings, but they and we shouldn't be afraid of playing on the road in the playoffs.
Loving the all-business, take-no-prisoners approach. They pushed the Yankees to the back of the wild card pack last weekend. This week, they all but ended the Orioles hopes of winning the division and have put them in danger of being pushed out of playoff contention as well. Ortiz, Pedroia, Buchholz and Tazawa lived through the 2011 collapse and I'm sure they are making sure the youngsters keep pushing until the division is won.
Glad also to see that the Mariners finally realized yesterday that beating the Blue Jays would be beneficial to their fleeting postseason dreams. The Jays have their last off-day today before a week of games at home versus the Yankees and Orioles. Hopefully they beat each other up and help the Sox clinch the division before the Jays arrive at Fenway.
Glad also to see that the Mariners finally realized yesterday that beating the Blue Jays would be beneficial to their fleeting postseason dreams. The Jays have their last off-day today before a week of games at home versus the Yankees and Orioles. Hopefully they beat each other up and help the Sox clinch the division before the Jays arrive at Fenway.
If the Red Sox play .500 ball the rest of the season (5-5), Toronto will have to win out to tie for the division. One could point to 2011 and say it's possible to tail off, but that collapse started to percolate in August.
I don't recall the 2011 collapse starting in August. I remember the whole attitude thing after the double header with Oakland (which they swept) and then they actually beat the MFY on the last day of the month to extend their division lead...nevermind wildcard. Maybe you could point to the whole complaining about the double header as a harbinger of that team's issues, but thing didn't really start to unravel until the Toronto series IIRC.
At any rate, as bad as the Red Sox were that September, they never lost more than 5 in a row. I'd have a hard time believing this team would lose more than 6 or 7 games in the final 10 if things went south. That likely isn't enough to blow a 5 game lead.
If the Jays suddenly become invulnerable and win out then by definition the Sox will lose their last 3 against said SuperJays. Therefore, to clinch the division outright the Sox need to win 6 of their next 7 to be uncatchable. That's why their 'magic number' is 6 by the way...
Not every win or loss means the same, despite what one sees in game threads.
Yes, it's true that a loss is a loss...mathematically, but this season's a great example how a loss isn't a loss if it's part of a longer story, but forget the negative, here's the positive:
The past week's games have featured wins that count more than a mid-season win. They're a combination of death blows and playoff surges. The Oriole's and Yankee losses are worse than normal losses and these Red Sox wins are greater than normal wins. What a sport.
Yes, it's true that a loss is a loss...mathematically, but this season's a great example how a loss isn't a loss if it's part of a longer story, but forget the negative, here's the positive:
The past week's games have featured wins that count more than a mid-season win. They're a combination of death blows and playoff surges. The Oriole's and Yankee losses are worse than normal losses and these Red Sox wins are greater than normal wins. What a sport.
So you think it magically happened starting September 1? There were fundamental signs of the collapse there. They had 17 of their games, more than half, against abysmal teams (a combined 43.8 W%), and 11 of their 14 road games against such teams, and rather than making hay they had worst month since April. Suffice it to say, once the cakewalk was over, the wheels came completely off.
A lot of the collapse can be blamed on the fact that they went into September with Matsuzaka and Buchholz done for the year and Lackey pitching with a shredded elbow (which we didn't know until later). Add in the fact that Daniel Bard's demise had begun in late August (again, we didn't know how far he was falling at the time). And then, of course, Josh Beckett completely shit the bed in his last two starts.
It's tough to win games when you have no effective pitching. I still think the chicken and beer thing was ridiculous and just served as an easy scapegoat for fans to cling on to. The pitching staff was just wrecked by the time September 1st rolled around.
This season, the staff has come together as a real strength heading into September. The circumstances are vastly different from 2011 and I see no reason to fear another collapse. This is a damned good team, right here, right now. The 2011 Sox were not at this point in the season.
-One of the abysmal teams was Cleveland, which was 53-52 when the Red Sox played them.
-In the 14 road games, the Red Sox went 9-5 (2-1@MIN, 1-2@SEA, 3-1@KC, 3-1@TEX). Was that so bad?
-For the month, they went 17-12, was that so bad? They were +2.0 at the start of August and +1.5 at the end of it.
They split four games at home. Cleveland was an awful road team, and was a pythag mirage on the balance of the season. I'd certainly put them in the "bad" basket. They shouldn't have been splitting a series versus them, and their two wins could have gone either way. On the month with average luck in 1 run games they're closer to a .500 team. Yes, I think there were signs of a drop-off from May-July. September was certainly an anomaly, but what I'm saying is there were signs they were trending in the wrong direction.
I brought my daughters to that doubleheader - the last games we've been to as a family (sometimes it sucks to be an ex-pat). I was trying to use the games as a springboard to getting into the pennant race (again not the easiest thing when almost all the games start after midnight) and remember everything going south after the DH sweep. Yes, they won some individual games after that but Oakland was the last series they won that year. After that they lost 2-1 to NY, 2-1 to Tex, 3-1 @Tor, 3-0 @TB, split 1-1 to Tor, lost 3-1 to TB, 3-1 to Bal, 2-1 @NY and 2-1 @Bal. Pretty depressing sheet.
On a more cheery note the Sox have a chance to sweep all 4 division opponents since the current AL East was configured in 1998. They clinched the season series against the O's and Yanks, need one win in TB to clinch it vs the Rays and need to win the 3-game series at Fenway to clinch vs the Jays. Only Baltimore in 2014 and the MFY in '01,'02,'03 and '06 have clinched the 'grand slam' as we call it in British sports (e.g. in the 6-Nations Tournament in Rugby Union when one country of Wales, England, Scotland, Ireland, France or Italy beats each of the other 5).
On a more cheery note the Sox have a chance to sweep all 4 division opponents since the current AL East was configured in 1998. They clinched the season series against the O's and Yanks, need one win in TB to clinch it vs the Rays and need to win the 3-game series at Fenway to clinch vs the Jays. Only Baltimore in 2014 and the MFY in '01,'02,'03 and '06 have clinched the 'grand slam' as we call it in British sports (e.g. in the 6-Nations Tournament in Rugby Union when one country of Wales, England, Scotland, Ireland, France or Italy beats each of the other 5).
Ever since Jim Rice's remarkable 1978 season, I've been fond of Total Bases. This year's Sox have six guys with at least 250 TB. I can only find one other team ever ('07 Yankees) with that many, ever, although I haven't figured out how to search directly. The late 90's Cleveland and Colorado teams don't seem to make it, nor do the Big Red Machine teams of the late 70's. The '31 MFYs had five. Could they really be the second team ever to do this? If we move the threshold to 270, two of those Yankees drop off and the Sox should make that.
I think you are way off. The 2003 Sox had 7 guys with 250+ TB and another with 246 (and a 9th at 231), for instance.
The 2003 Red Sox and the 2003 Atlanta Braves each had 7 guys with 250+ total bases. That is the record.
A host of other teams have had 6, including this year's Red Sox.
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/nZCQo
Travis Shaw needs 48 more bases to become #7.
A host of other teams have had 6, including this year's Red Sox.
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/nZCQo
Travis Shaw needs 48 more bases to become #7.
Isn't a grand slam 4 bases/4 runs? This sounds more like a grand slam followed by a sharp single to center.
Taking on the four AL East teams in succession at the end of the season offers a unique opportunity to make a statement to each of these organizations going into next year. Although games with AL East rivals are packed into September each year, the last time there were four different series back to back at the end of the year was 2005 (Rays - O's - Jays - MFYs).
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Grand slam is a lot of things including pancakes and bacon at Denys and taking all 13 tricks at bridge. Basically it refers to achieving the max result, not necessarily 'fourness'
Two nice stats
“@alexspeier: The Red Sox are indeed the first team ever to win 5 straight games while scoring 5 in each. ‘89 Brewers won 6 straight w/7 runs in each.”
“@alexspeier: Red Sox on the cusp of back-to-back 4-game sweeps for the first time since doing so vs the A’s and Twins July 1-7, 1968.”
“@alexspeier: The Red Sox are indeed the first team ever to win 5 straight games while scoring 5 in each. ‘89 Brewers won 6 straight w/7 runs in each.”
“@alexspeier: Red Sox on the cusp of back-to-back 4-game sweeps for the first time since doing so vs the A’s and Twins July 1-7, 1968.”
So good I;m really concerned about the long term mental health of my Chicago friends. They simply have no idea what we have here, they've been so consumed with their North side squad. One game out for best record in AL.
Was amazed to learn that the RS are now 4th in team ERA in the AL?
Even better has been the bullpen. Without jinxing them, their ERA this month is 0.82, which, if it holds up, would be (according to this) the best bullpen ERA for any time for any month in the last two years.
Some other good stats in the article, like the fact that Ziegler has a career high strikeout rate; Abad is .139/.184/.254 against lefties, and Hembree has a career .287 OBP-against versus righties.
Farrell's got a lot of weapons with the expanded rosters.
Even better has been the bullpen. Without jinxing them, their ERA this month is 0.82, which, if it holds up, would be (according to this) the best bullpen ERA for any time for any month in the last two years.
Some other good stats in the article, like the fact that Ziegler has a career high strikeout rate; Abad is .139/.184/.254 against lefties, and Hembree has a career .287 OBP-against versus righties.
Farrell's got a lot of weapons with the expanded rosters.
Sox now a game back of best AL record. I'd almost rather finish 2nd or 3rd and draw Cleveland as opposed to one of the WC teams but can't be upset if they earn HFA
Agree! Their away record is impressive on its own... But drawing Cleveland with their injuries would be ideal.
Of course HFA against any of the potential WC teams, we would presumably get a good starting pitching matchup advantage....
....pointing out the obvz
Can you play a WC team in the first round if the WC team is in your division? Or was that a rule pre-two WC teams?
The pitching this year has been better than most of us would assume based on how painful the first half was. The entire pitching staff has come around to be much closer to what we were hoping for at the start of the season and is a legitimate weapon right now.
In looking at potential Cy Young candidates, I was surprised to find that David Price was just outside of my top 5, despite the ugly results pre-All Star break. But even during that run, his FIP, xFIP and K/BB were still very solid.
He's currently at a 3.37 FIP, a 3.42 xFIP, a 9.14 k/9 and a 1.89 bb/9. He's a very small step down from his previous couple of seasons, but he's been very very good this year. Porcello has been everything we hoped for when he was extended, and more this season. Buchholz is looking like a reliable pitcher since ditching the windup. Pomeranz looks tired, but is still getting lots of swings and misses and should be a nice bullpen arm for the playoffs. Eduardo is prone to the occasional blow up game, but can also dominate a lineup when he's on. A fine option for number 4.
The pen looks fairly loaded now with Kimbrel settling in to the dominance we expected all year, Ziegler is an excellent set-up man. Koji looks like he's got just enough in the tank for one last run, Tazawa suddenly doesn't suck anymore and Scott has Daniel Nava syndrome going on and could be a legitimate weapon against lefties for matchups. Whether they go with Abad as another lefty killer or in another direction, the playoff pen actually fills me with confidence which is remarkable given how down I was on them just a few weeks ago.
This team has the tools they need to win another title. Now we just need to hope for this hot streak to keep going long enough for them to do it.
In looking at potential Cy Young candidates, I was surprised to find that David Price was just outside of my top 5, despite the ugly results pre-All Star break. But even during that run, his FIP, xFIP and K/BB were still very solid.
He's currently at a 3.37 FIP, a 3.42 xFIP, a 9.14 k/9 and a 1.89 bb/9. He's a very small step down from his previous couple of seasons, but he's been very very good this year. Porcello has been everything we hoped for when he was extended, and more this season. Buchholz is looking like a reliable pitcher since ditching the windup. Pomeranz looks tired, but is still getting lots of swings and misses and should be a nice bullpen arm for the playoffs. Eduardo is prone to the occasional blow up game, but can also dominate a lineup when he's on. A fine option for number 4.
The pen looks fairly loaded now with Kimbrel settling in to the dominance we expected all year, Ziegler is an excellent set-up man. Koji looks like he's got just enough in the tank for one last run, Tazawa suddenly doesn't suck anymore and Scott has Daniel Nava syndrome going on and could be a legitimate weapon against lefties for matchups. Whether they go with Abad as another lefty killer or in another direction, the playoff pen actually fills me with confidence which is remarkable given how down I was on them just a few weeks ago.
This team has the tools they need to win another title. Now we just need to hope for this hot streak to keep going long enough for them to do it.
The wild card winner plays the team with the best record regardless if the team's are from the same division.
I'd rather have HFA throughout the playoffs *and* face a WC team that had to use its best pitchers just to get into the ALDS.
How are they the first team ever when the Brewers did it (and better)? How am I reading this wrong? Or does he mean exactly 5 runs?
Has to be.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/1989-schedule-scores.shtml
From Sept 6 to Sept 12 the Brewers won each game with exactly 7 runs.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/1989-schedule-scores.shtml
From Sept 6 to Sept 12 the Brewers won each game with exactly 7 runs.
In the AL:
Runs scored per game:
Red Sox- 5.56
Then next team is the Indians at 4.8 per game and they're grouped in with 4 other teams (Texas, Toronto, Seattle and Baltimore) that are all between 4.8-4.63. They're the head of the class by nearly a run a game (0.76).
Runs allowed per game:
Cle- 4.16
Tor- 4.20
Hou- 4.21
NYY- 4.32
Bos- 4.33
KC- 4.33
So though they're 5th in the league in runs allowed, they're really in a fairly tight grouping of teams; behind Cleveland by only about 0.17 runs.
Runs scored per game:
Red Sox- 5.56
Then next team is the Indians at 4.8 per game and they're grouped in with 4 other teams (Texas, Toronto, Seattle and Baltimore) that are all between 4.8-4.63. They're the head of the class by nearly a run a game (0.76).
Runs allowed per game:
Cle- 4.16
Tor- 4.20
Hou- 4.21
NYY- 4.32
Bos- 4.33
KC- 4.33
So though they're 5th in the league in runs allowed, they're really in a fairly tight grouping of teams; behind Cleveland by only about 0.17 runs.
How many of you guys are now to the point where anything less than a WS championship (or at least a WS appearance) is going to make you upset (or at least disappointed)? Because coming off the last two years, I'd have been happy to just make the playoffs this year. But I think this team has a very real shot at the brass ring, and how sweet would it be to win it in Papi's final season?
My expectation is they compete in the WS. Detroit is the only playoff likely team that is playing well, and it may be an illusion because of the drek they are playing right now. I won't be angry, or disappointed if they don't win because this is just gravy. I expected to digest a WS meal, or series of them, starting in 2017. Feeling fortunate they matured earlier than expected.
Yeah, it's house money but I'm getting to the win-or-disappointment stage, especially because of Papi, but also because they have legit MVP/Cy contenders and are hitting their stride at the perfect time. I think they're good enough to be the team that embarrasses the Cubs this year.