How does the rest of the season play out?

[tims4wins]

Here's the remainder of the schedule. A lot of these games could be coinflips depending on circumstances. How do you think it will play out?

vs IND (Germany)
Bye
@ NYG
vs LAC
@ PIT
vs KC
@ DEN
@ BUF
vs NYJ

I voted 3-5. I have no idea which 3 (aside from that it won't be KC or BUF). But I think they've been competitive enough in most games that a few will swing their way.

 

[dirtynine]

in order of preference:
1. win all remaining games
2. lose all remaining games
3. go 3-5 or whatever

 

[Rico Guapo]

I voted 1-7, they're not talented or healthy enough to beat any of the remaining teams on their schedule besides the Giants.

 

[bluefenderstrat]

I voted 1-7, they're not talented or healthy enough to beat any of the remaining teams on their schedule besides the Giants.

I picked 3-5 but I hope you’re right. The sooner they hit bottom and the Krafts decide what the future looks like, the better.

 

[tims4wins]

It sucks that they could end up 4-13 and still only pick like 5th. Looking back historically I guess that's kind of par for the course. You have to be extra bad to get a top 3 pick.

 

[Willie Clay's Big Play]

1-7. I think the only team they are clearly better than, as Rico said, is NYG. If I squint maybe I could see them winning a rock fight against an exasperated Jets squad to end the season.
I love the pats and that’s why I’m hoping for 0-7. They need access to as much draft capital as possible.

 

[Garshaparra]

2-6. They beat the NY teams, and are at least competitive vs. IND and DEN, but lose both of those.

 

[radsoxfan]

Probably 2-6. Maybe 1-7.

This is a low talent team missing 3 of its top players for the year due to injury.

I don't think it's any more complicated than that.

 

[Curt S Loew]

I was gonna go 1-7 because of NYG. Then I changed my mind to 0-8 because of NYG.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I went 2-6, because of the Giants and (because they always find a way to beat them) the Chargers

 

[mikeford]

"best" case scenario is 4 wins. Can't see them beating anyone but the Giants, jets, broncos and colts

Hopefully they lose out

 

[RedOctober3829]

1-7 with the only win coming at home against the Chargers.

 

[BigJimEd]

in order of preference:
1. win all remaining games
2. lose all remaining games
3. go 3-5 or whatever

Agreed. Not what I think will happen but can't argue in order of preference

 

[nolasoxfan]

2-6 is my best guess. I seem to be in good company.

 

[ShaneTrot]

I honestly have no idea. I am concerned about the level of buy-in to the program at this moment and the dearth of talent on the roster. You would think if you were Dugger, Uche, Onwenu, Brown, and all the other free agents, you need to put out the best tape possible. But the tackling Sunday was atrocious, the QB and WR play is just awful, without Judon the pass rush has been pedestrian, and the special teams (not the rookie punter and kicker) seem to still suck or at least remain stupid. This team is dumb, lacks talent, and seems to have some players who are not invested.

 

[Groovenstein]

I was gonna go 1-7 because of NYG. Then I changed my mind to 0-8 because of NYG.

Too soon.

 

[ragnarok725]

I think folks are being too pessimistic (or optimistic?) about the remaining games. This team has a lot of problems but they're capable of beating teams. I think we're going to see some bounce back performances in the next few weeks. They'll win against the Giants, at home against the Chargers, and have one other surprise win in there somewhere, and of course play hard and win in the final game of the season against the Jets.

This season has been awful. It will have the worst ending possible.

 

[MonstahsInLeft]

Yes, looks like 2-6 with the crowd.

Potentially 2 of 3 of the Colts, Giants, or Jets.

But if they lose 2 of those, there can always be an “Any Given Sunday” win in there so 2 seems safe.

edit: Then again, if they lose to the Colts heading into the bye things could really snowball from here…

 

[ponch73]

I think the season will play out even worse than we expect with the Belichick Pats going 6-2, thereby insulating Belichick the GM from having to take any medicine.

1. Jetlagged Colts in Frankfurt
2. Hapless Giants
3. BB will flummox Herbert
4. BB always beats Tomlin
5. Hapless Broncos
6. BB always beats the Jets

Pats finish 8-9, get a mediocre draft slot and delay a true rebuild for yet another year.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I went 4-4. The over under on wins on draft kings at the start of the year was 6.5. I figure Vegas is pretty good, so by hook or by crook I am thinking 6 or 7 wins. 5-3 seems really unlikely so I am going 4-4. That seems unlikely too, but I’m going with the line.

 

[NomarsFool]

I think they will come up with a creative way to lose the bye week….

 

[j-man]

2-6 NYG and JETS or LAC and if u keep bill another year the jets win week 18 u are not going to pick higher than 4 likely the 5th pick

but this is going to be a mess for u because don't think bill will want to retire and the only team who would give u a first for him is buff

if bill still wants to coach try to trade him to car and ask for brayn burns their best young pass rusher

 

[streeter88]

I picked 1-7 and that’s on track so far.

I don’t think Zappe or Grier have anything that Mac doesn’t - except maybe less loss stink / Darnold ghosts / fear of getting hit. Alt, at least Zappe has some sort of pocket awareness; maybe 1-7 becomes 2-6 and they finish 4-13 instead of 3-14. Whatever.

Really need to lose out for best draft pick results.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Great. Pundits predict another loss this week...

 

[NobodyInteresting]

Great. Pundits predict another loss this week...

View attachment 73974

On the positive side, we do get to score 17 points which does shift the average up a bit, and teams rarely score that well during bye weeks.

 

[BusRaker]

Shouldn't that read "Bye Week 1-0-10?" They have the Giants week 13 so they might get their second win.

 

[johnmd20]

Shouldn't that read "Bye Week 1-0-10?" They have the Giants week 13 so they might get their second win.

It should but, still, that is pretty funny.

 

[Rook05]

Too bad about the Bears, but hard to argue this wasn’t a bye week win for the Pats.

 

[Justthetippett]

Bears' loss sucked but they have more winnable games left on their schedule (Ariz, Atl, GB). They are also not risking much by winning since Carolina looks incapable of much at all. Fields also knows he's playing for his job, as is the coaching staff. I think they'll grab one or two more wins.

 

[BaseballJones]

Interesting (to me anyway)...here's all the defensive rankings for the Pats from 2001-2023 in both points and yards allowed. Then I'll make an observation.

2001 - 6th points, 24th yards
2002 - 17th points, 23rd yards
2003 - 1st points, 7th yards
2004 - 2nd points, 9th yards
2005 - 17th points, 26th yards
2006 - 2nd points, 6th yards
2007 - 4th points, 4th yards
2008 - 8th points, 10th yards
2009 - 5th points, 11th yards
2010 - 8th points, 25th yards
2011 - 15th points, 31st yards
2012 - 9th points, 25th yards
2013 - 10th points, 26th yards
2014 - 8th points, 13th yards
2015 - 10th points, 9th yards
2016 - 1st points, 8th yards
2017 - 5th points, 29th yards
2018 - 7th points, 21st yards
2019 - 1st points, 1st yards
2020 - 7th points, 15th yards
2021 - 2nd points, 4th yards
2022 - 11th points, 8th yards
2023 - 21st points, 8th yards

Ok here's the observation. From 2001-2021, the Patriots:

- 1 time the scoring D was ranked lower than the yardage D (2015, when they were 10th in scoring D and 9th in yardage D)
- 2 times the scoring D was ranked the same as the yardage D (2007, 4th and 4th, and 2019, 1st and 1st)
- 18 times the scoring D was ranked higher than the yardage D (by an average margin of 9.6 ranking points)

But the last two seasons, the scoring D was ranked lower than the yardage D (11/8 in 2022 and 21/8 in 2023).

Why is this?

I'd suggest that from 2001-2021, the defense was aided greatly by the offense, which could (a) score, (b) move the ball, and (c) eat up time. Plus NE had good special teams. This forced opposing teams to start with worse field position, requiring them to gain more yards in order to score. The Pats' D would allow the other team to move the ball and gain yards but they'd eventually hold (the old bend-but-don't-break D) and limit the points. So the other teams always moved the ball more than they'd end up scoring. That is, their expected points given how much yardage they gained was LESS than their ACTUAL number of points scored in a game against the Pats.

But not the last two years, which have been completely opposite. The offense (ranked 17/26 in 2022 and 31/25 in 2023) has not been able to (a) score, (b) move the ball, or (c) eat up time. And the special teams has been bad. So the other teams are not needing as many yards to score points, which they've managed to do successfully a lot of the time. We can look at the Pats having the #8 yardage allowed defense and think, oh, they're pretty solid, and I think they are, but the other teams are scoring more points than you'd think given the number of yards they've allowed.

So all this to say...the offense is not just costing the Patriots their own points, they're making life so much easier on the other teams' offenses that it's putting the Pats' defense in terrible situations.

 

[tims4wins]

Interesting (to me anyway)...here's all the defensive rankings for the Pats from 2001-2023 in both points and yards allowed. Then I'll make an observation.

2001 - 6th points, 24th yards
2002 - 17th points, 23rd yards
2003 - 1st points, 7th yards
2004 - 2nd points, 9th yards
2005 - 17th points, 26th yards
2006 - 2nd points, 6th yards
2007 - 4th points, 4th yards
2008 - 8th points, 10th yards
2009 - 5th points, 11th yards
2010 - 8th points, 25th yards
2011 - 15th points, 31st yards
2012 - 9th points, 25th yards
2013 - 10th points, 26th yards
2014 - 8th points, 13th yards
2015 - 10th points, 9th yards
2016 - 1st points, 8th yards
2017 - 5th points, 29th yards
2018 - 7th points, 21st yards
2019 - 1st points, 1st yards
2020 - 7th points, 15th yards
2021 - 2nd points, 4th yards
2022 - 11th points, 8th yards
2023 - 21st points, 8th yards

Ok here's the observation. From 2001-2021, the Patriots:

- 1 time the scoring D was ranked lower than the yardage D (2015, when they were 10th in scoring D and 9th in yardage D)
- 2 times the scoring D was ranked the same as the yardage D (2007, 4th and 4th, and 2019, 1st and 1st)
- 18 times the scoring D was ranked higher than the yardage D (by an average margin of 9.6 ranking points)

But the last two seasons, the scoring D was ranked lower than the yardage D (11/8 in 2022 and 21/8 in 2023).

Why is this?

I'd suggest that from 2001-2021, the defense was aided greatly by the offense, which could (a) score, (b) move the ball, and (c) eat up time. Plus NE had good special teams. This forced opposing teams to start with worse field position, requiring them to gain more yards in order to score. The Pats' D would allow the other team to move the ball and gain yards but they'd eventually hold (the old bend-but-don't-break D) and limit the points. So the other teams always moved the ball more than they'd end up scoring. That is, their expected points given how much yardage they gained was LESS than their ACTUAL number of points scored in a game against the Pats.

But not the last two years, which have been completely opposite. The offense (ranked 17/26 in 2022 and 31/25 in 2023) has not been able to (a) score, (b) move the ball, or (c) eat up time. And the special teams has been bad. So the other teams are not needing as many yards to score points, which they've managed to do successfully a lot of the time. We can look at the Pats having the #8 yardage allowed defense and think, oh, they're pretty solid, and I think they are, but the other teams are scoring more points than you'd think given the number of yards they've allowed.

So all this to say...the offense is not just costing the Patriots their own points, they're making life so much easier on the other teams' offenses that it's putting the Pats' defense in terrible situations.

Absolutely, 100% yes, and it's interesting that it wasn't just Brady.

Also, my 3-5 vote was... optimistic.

I'll say 1-5 from this point out. BB is probably going to beat the Jets and cost us the #1 pick.

 

[jsinger121]

Absolutely, 100% yes, and it's interesting that it wasn't just Brady.

Also, my 3-5 vote was... optimistic.

I'll say 1-5 from this point out. BB is probably going to beat the Jets and cost us the #1 pick.

I'd fire BB the Saturday before and tell the interim coach to lose on purpose.

 

[SWHB]

Interesting (to me anyway)...here's all the defensive rankings for the Pats from 2001-2023 in both points and yards allowed. Then I'll make an observation.

2001 - 6th points, 24th yards
2002 - 17th points, 23rd yards
2003 - 1st points, 7th yards
2004 - 2nd points, 9th yards
2005 - 17th points, 26th yards
2006 - 2nd points, 6th yards
2007 - 4th points, 4th yards
2008 - 8th points, 10th yards
2009 - 5th points, 11th yards
2010 - 8th points, 25th yards
2011 - 15th points, 31st yards
2012 - 9th points, 25th yards
2013 - 10th points, 26th yards
2014 - 8th points, 13th yards
2015 - 10th points, 9th yards
2016 - 1st points, 8th yards
2017 - 5th points, 29th yards
2018 - 7th points, 21st yards
2019 - 1st points, 1st yards
2020 - 7th points, 15th yards
2021 - 2nd points, 4th yards
2022 - 11th points, 8th yards
2023 - 21st points, 8th yards

Ok here's the observation. From 2001-2021, the Patriots:

- 1 time the scoring D was ranked lower than the yardage D (2015, when they were 10th in scoring D and 9th in yardage D)
- 2 times the scoring D was ranked the same as the yardage D (2007, 4th and 4th, and 2019, 1st and 1st)
- 18 times the scoring D was ranked higher than the yardage D (by an average margin of 9.6 ranking points)

But the last two seasons, the scoring D was ranked lower than the yardage D (11/8 in 2022 and 21/8 in 2023).

Why is this?

I'd suggest that from 2001-2021, the defense was aided greatly by the offense, which could (a) score, (b) move the ball, and (c) eat up time. Plus NE had good special teams. This forced opposing teams to start with worse field position, requiring them to gain more yards in order to score. The Pats' D would allow the other team to move the ball and gain yards but they'd eventually hold (the old bend-but-don't-break D) and limit the points. So the other teams always moved the ball more than they'd end up scoring. That is, their expected points given how much yardage they gained was LESS than their ACTUAL number of points scored in a game against the Pats.

But not the last two years, which have been completely opposite. The offense (ranked 17/26 in 2022 and 31/25 in 2023) has not been able to (a) score, (b) move the ball, or (c) eat up time. And the special teams has been bad. So the other teams are not needing as many yards to score points, which they've managed to do successfully a lot of the time. We can look at the Pats having the #8 yardage allowed defense and think, oh, they're pretty solid, and I think they are, but the other teams are scoring more points than you'd think given the number of yards they've allowed.

So all this to say...the offense is not just costing the Patriots their own points, they're making life so much easier on the other teams' offenses that it's putting the Pats' defense in terrible situations.

I think normalizing this by the number of drives will make a big difference in accounting for the offense and other factors (though not completely, due to starting field position and strategic score-based factors, etc.); looks like this year the Pats are 13th best in points and 12th in yards per drive, with the 11th worst average starting field position, while in 2021 they were 2nd in points and 9th in yards per drive (but benefitted from the 5th best starting field position). So the defense has gotten worse even on a per-drive basis, but not to the extent the raw numbers would indicate.

 

[sezwho]

I think normalizing this by the number of drives will make a big difference in accounting for the offense and other factors (though not completely, due to starting field position and strategic score-based factors, etc.); looks like this year the Pats are 13th best in points and 12th in yards per drive, with the 11th worst average starting field position, while in 2021 they were 2nd in points and 9th in yards per drive (but benefitted from the 5th best starting field position). So the defense has gotten worse even on a per-drive basis, but not to the extent the raw numbers would indicate.

I was thinking similarly, that measuring points needs more context. A high flying offense scores quickly and puts the D right back out there several more times a game. Maybe pts per defensive possession?

 

[BigJimEd]

I think normalizing this by the number of drives will make a big difference in accounting for the offense and other factors (though not completely, due to starting field position and strategic score-based factors, etc.); looks like this year the Pats are 13th best in points and 12th in yards per drive, with the 11th worst average starting field position, while in 2021 they were 2nd in points and 9th in yards per drive (but benefitted from the 5th best starting field position). So the defense has gotten worse even on a per-drive basis, but not to the extent the raw numbers would indicate.

They also aren't getting the turnovers this season. They are near the bottom in turnover % after being top 5 the last several years.

 

[BaseballJones]

Top MVP candidates:

1. Prescott, Dal - leads league in TD passes, #2 in passer rating, #3 in pass yards, 26 td, only 6 int. Dallas is one of the best teams in the league
2. Mahomes, KC - perennial candidate, and without a big-time set of weapons this year still is putting up 68%, 2,917 yds, 21 td, vs. just 9 int
3. Hurts, Phi - top team in the NFC, numerous big wins, 2,697 pass yds, 18 td, and also has 410 rush yds and 11 rush td
4. McCaffrey, SF - #1 in NFL in rush yds (939), nearly 5 ypc, adds 38 rec for 389 yds, and has 16 total td
5. Hill, Mia - 88 rec, 1,324 yds (15.0 y/c), 10 td, on pace for 136 rec, 2,046 receiving yards, and 15 td

Right now, IMO, Prescott has a pretty sizable lead. But a long way to go still. Neither McCaffrey nor Hill will get it, even if they continue to put up absolutely monster seasons. This is a QB award, but I just wanted to acknowledge how great those guys have been.

 

[Justthetippett]

Top MVP candidates:

1. Prescott, Dal - leads league in TD passes, #2 in passer rating, #3 in pass yards, 26 td, only 6 int. Dallas is one of the best teams in the league
2. Mahomes, KC - perennial candidate, and without a big-time set of weapons this year still is putting up 68%, 2,917 yds, 21 td, vs. just 9 int
3. Hurts, Phi - top team in the NFC, numerous big wins, 2,697 pass yds, 18 td, and also has 410 rush yds and 11 rush td
4. McCaffrey, SF - #1 in NFL in rush yds (939), nearly 5 ypc, adds 38 rec for 389 yds, and has 16 total td
5. Hill, Mia - 88 rec, 1,324 yds (15.0 y/c), 10 td, on pace for 136 rec, 2,046 receiving yards, and 15 td

Right now, IMO, Prescott has a pretty sizable lead. But a long way to go still. Neither McCaffrey nor Hill will get it, even if they continue to put up absolutely monster seasons. This is a QB award, but I just wanted to acknowledge how great those guys have been.

I think it'll be Hurts as long as that team keeps rolling. Will be hard to give it to Dak if they go 0-2 against Philly. Mahomes' excellence is taken for granted now and he's not having his best year. He'll have to settle for another AFCCG and shot at a title, I guess.

 

[rodderick]

The Chiefs are scoring 23 points per game, Mahomes is the best player in the sport, but he shouldn't really be anywhere near MVP discussions this year.

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah Mahomes is having a Brady 2006 / 2013 type year

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I think it'll be Hurts as long as that team keeps rolling. Will be hard to give it to Dak if they go 0-2 against Philly. Mahomes' excellence is taken for granted now and he's not having his best year. He'll have to settle for another AFCCG and shot at a title, I guess.

Paying well against Philly should not keep Dak from winning, at all. He lit up Philly, but he had a nationally televised dud vs San Fran and a terrible game vs Arizona.

Meanwhile, Hurts has had nowhere near the passing season that Dak has had despite having a better line, a better group of receivers and the ability to squat his way to a first down/td anytime they need a yard.

All that said, I think the MVP comes down to 12/10 when they meet in Dallas. Philly wins, and Hurts doesn't shit himself, Hurts is the MVP, because they should dominate the rest of their schedule. If the Cowboys win, and Dak keeps putting up great numbers after that vs tougher team (Buf,Miami), Dak wins it.

 

[Curt S Loew]

Bumping to note that the SoSH majority got this right. Although, not the exact way it happened. It never happens that way.