Yeah, I'm coming around to the under as well--I think the Pats will also sit back and dare the Falcons to run it. So while the scoring might be relatively high on a points per drive basis, there might not be a ton of drives.I had NE over ATL 31-27 in the predictions thread, so I'll stick with that. But I am starting to think that the game could be lower scoring than people are thinking, with NE playing ball control on offense and trying to force long drives on D.
Impressive.Sticking with the SB prediction I made Jan. 2nd: NE 31 ATL 20
Despite all the high powered weapons on both sides, this game will be won in the trenches. We simply have to pressure their QB and prevent them from pressuring ours.
The pats played the way they did against HOU because HOU has a top level D. Btw they rolled up 375 yards on HOU and a casual 434 vs PIT despite taking their foot off the gas in the 4th.I think the Patriots can totally lose this game. If they play the way they did against, say, Houston, they'll lose. Maybe even lose by a lot.
But this team is laser-focused on winning this championship for a multitude of reasons. The defense has the pieces, I think, to limit big plays from Atlanta and force a lot of long drives to turn into field goals. I see Butler one-on-one with Sanu and Rowe/McCourty doubling up Jones. I trust the front seven to limit the Falcons' running game, as they have all season.
I think at halftime everyone is sweating out a first half that will see two unfamiliar teams feeling each other out. I wouldn't be shocked if it's like 14-10 or something like that at the half, with either team in the lead. But the Patriots have been a great second-half team all season, and I think they start to pull away at the end of the third and throughout the fourth quarter.
With all of that said, this feels like a 37-26 Patriots win to me. I think the Falcons get into the end zone a couple of times, but the Patriots' defense forces a lot of field goals which ultimately prove to be the difference in the game.
Wait, is the whole team mini or is it just mini-Belichick?NE by 30.
Good point. The Pats, if need be, probably could have put up 500 yards of offense on the Steelers.The pats played the way they did against HOU because HOU has a top level D. Btw they rolled up 375 yards on HOU and a casual 434 vs PIT despite taking their foot off the gas in the 4th.
Pats 41 Falcons 27.
That's where I'm at, though I think reality is that the Pats defense is more "very good" than awesome, and the Atlanta offense is so awesome that they are going to score quite a bit on even a very good defense. I trust this defense to force a couple more punts and field goals out of Atlanta than the other way around, though, so ultimately I think as long if NE is even in the turnover battle they win this game without much 4th quarter drama.Good point. The Pats, if need be, probably could have put up 500 yards of offense on the Steelers.
It seems like in the midst of this Super Bowl analysis focused on Atlanta's offense is the very real fact that the Patriots have an absolutely dynamic and versatile offense that very well could light Atlanta's defense up like a Christmas tree.
Team 1: Awesome offense, average defense, good special teams
Team 2: Awesome offense, awesome defense, awesome special teams
Generally speaking, Team 2 wins. Not always of course. But probably more often than not.
I'm thinking the opposite:Impressive.
Pats take a double digit lead into the 4th, but garbage time makes it close, 3-7 point win.
Could you be more specific, please?I'm thinking the opposite:
Pats by 10 in the 4th...but a Pick-6 or just an interception and security TD in the late minutes make it 17. Falcons get a quick field goal and then can't get the onside kick...Pat's run it out for a 14 pt. win.
I'm just a hot-taker, not a clairavoyant.Could you be more specific, please?
The most significant difference between NE's offense and Atlanta's is Atlanta's defense's inability to stop anyone, and how this caused Atlanta to have a huge amount of meaningful snaps late in games against bad teams. Atlanta was winning games 38-31 while the Patriots were busy winning those games 28-7.That's where I'm at, though I think reality is that the Pats defense is more "very good" than awesome, and the Atlanta offense is so awesome that they are going to score quite a bit on even a very good defense. I trust this defense to force a couple more punts and field goals out of Atlanta than the other way around, though, so ultimately I think as long if NE is even in the turnover battle they win this game without much 4th quarter drama.
If these Falcons send 5 rushers and play aggressive man coverage, Brady will absolutely rip them to shreds on said plays with screens and hot routes.If the Falcons play a zone coverage - as I understand they do over 80% of the time - the Pats are going to wipe them out.
If the Falcons can play aggressive man on the outside and get to Brady with 5 or fewer rushers, then it will be a game. However, even with two weeks it's really hard to start doing something that a team hasn't done for the entire year.
So I split the difference and said Pats win by TD-ish.
You are correct that the Pats could rip apart an aggressive man defense - particularly when the defense in question hasn't played a lot of man up to this game (one of the problem when trying to do something that isn't in a unit's "nature").If these Falcons send 5 rushers and play aggressive man coverage, Brady will absolutely rip them to shreds on said plays with screens and hot routes.
The obscene confidence in this game is petrifying. Atlanta is a really good team, and the fan base confidence has a 2011 pats/jets AFC divisional vibe from me.I love the line(s) of thinking here. Pats 31-20 with a late TD by Falcons of a super soft NE Prevent making it look like less of a blowout. Short of a 2005 Denver nightmare scenario with Turnovers I don't see how the Pats don't win. Hell they spotted an amazing Seattle team 2 turnovers for 59 minutes 2 years ago and still led that game (And I am in no way forgetting or diminishing the Greatest Play in NFL History).
The Pats are 16-2, and would be 17-1 without a made up suspension. They're pretty good, too.The obscene confidence in this game is petrifying. Atlanta is a really good team, and the fan base confidence has a 2011 pats/jets AFC divisional vibe from me.
This game is a coinflip.