Hamels: Nothing Is Happening Right Now

[Mighty Joe Young]

The fact that the Phillies have a senior adviser advisor sniffing around the Sox prospects seems to indicate they may be ready to move off of their silly Swihart/Betts demands. Maybe the realization that Boston's prospects #5-10 are pretty good as well may get negotiations moving again.
 
But the Sox total intransigence to date leads me to think even an Owens/Devers/Grade C Prospect type of deal is out of the question unless Philly picks up a good chunk of the contract.

 

[Rasputin]

The fact that the Phillies have a senior adviser advisor sniffing around the Sox prospects seems to indicate they may be ready to move off of their silly Swihart/Betts demands. Maybe the realization that Boston's prospects #5-10 are pretty good as well may get negotiations moving again.
 
But the Sox total intransigence to date leads me to think even an Owens/Devers/Grade C Prospect type of deal is out of the question unless Philly picks up a good chunk of the contract.

 
I don't think that computes.
 
If you think the Phillies might finally be ready to move off their Swihart/Betts demands, doesn't that mean they are the team being intransigent, not the Sox? And doesn't that mean an Owens/Devers/C Prospect deal is more likely than before?

 

[E5 Yaz]

It's the first week of spring games. Kerfield's presence in Sox camp has little to no added significance. If the Phillies don't know the Sox prospects by this point, watching a spring game against a college team isn't going to help

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

 
I don't think that computes.
 
If you think the Phillies might finally be ready to move off their Swihart/Betts demands, doesn't that mean they are the team being intransigent, not the Sox? And doesn't that mean an Owens/Devers/C Prospect deal is more likely than before?

 
Yes - one would think. I guess it depends on how much money the Sox are demanding back. We really have no idea at this point. But the whole rumour started with Philly asking for Betts or Swihart headlining a package. I imagine that was laughed at (politely of course) by BC. Then there were rumours floated by the likes of Cafardo that the above Owens/Devers or Margot/C prospect could get i done - no traction - then we get a reported Sox bid heavy on MLB players -- which doesn't really mean much other than BC probably wanted the Philies to take some salary back.
 
Folks hearabouts I think would have been tentatively OK with an Owens/Devers/plus deal. That always seemed like the reasonable middle ground. Why hasn't that happened? Is it RAJ or is it BC that's holding up the works?

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

It's the first week of spring games. Kerfield's presence in Sox camp has little to no added significance. If the Phillies don't know the Sox prospects by this point, watching a spring game against a college team isn't going to help

 
The newspaper/online reports seemed to suggest it was a pretty rare occurrence for a senior advisor of his ilk to be scouting ST games. I think we are overestimating the Phillies here. " OK - who the hell is this Owens character Cherrington keeps mentioning? Get down there and check him out!"

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
The newspaper/online reports seemed to suggest it was a pretty rare occurrence for a senior advisor of his ilk to be scouting ST games. I think we are overestimating the Phillies here. " OK - who the hell is this Owens character Cherrington keeps mentioning? Get down there and check him out!"

 
As Cafardo said several times last season, he's never seen a team scout another team's prospects as much as the Phillies scouted the Red Sox.
 
I mean, there's cracking on the Phillies ... and then there's just wasting bandwidth

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

 
As Cafardo said several times last season, he's never seen a team scout another team's prospects as much as the Phillies scouted the Red Sox.
 
I mean, there's cracking on the Phillies ... and then there's just wasting bandwidth

 
I do believe Kerfield's presence does mean the Phillies demands may be shifting. But I don't think it gets done without lots of salary relief. - no real evidence for this , just a supposition based on rather grimy week old tea leaves

 

[MikeM]

A package of Owens, Kelly, and one of those three for Hamels adds ~$20M to this year's payroll, though. Are the Sox able and comfortable doing that in mid-March?

 
 I don't believe so, which is why i zeroed in on Buchholz in my Lee speculation. Since somebody in the rotation would need to be bumped anyway, i 'm assuming they see something they like in Kelly, and a freshly signed Masterson to the bullpen simply won't happen.
 
Even then though what's really the absolute best we could expect to get back on Victorino/Craig this spring, 80 cents on the dollar? Dumping those two (in 2 more additional trades) and Buchholz to add a Hamels/Lee still puts us over where we are now, which in itself is at least a little surprising. You could get even wilder in the speculation and have Craig take Napoli's job this spring....but who's really in the market for $16m first baseman come March.
 
Just can't see the pure prospect deal and how it all realistically gets tied together. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Is it possible, even the slightest bit, that Kerfield is watching the Sox the last few days because the Phillies open the regular season hosting them?  And it has nothing to do with Hamels, Lee, or any possible trade between the two teams?

 

[MikeM]

Is it possible, even the slightest bit, that Kerfield is watching the Sox the last few days because the Phillies open the regular season hosting them?  And it has nothing to do with Hamels, Lee, or any possible trade between the two teams?

 
 If he plans to stay there the entire month+ maybe. Otherwise it would seem to make more sense to come back when the intel he's getting is a little more fresh/relevant, right? 
 
Or i could be completely underestimating the overall effort that goes in to such things, of course. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

Is it possible, even the slightest bit, that Kerfield is watching the Sox the last few days because the Phillies open the regular season hosting them?  And it has nothing to do with Hamels, Lee, or any possible trade between the two teams?

 
Shhhhh ... dig your tinfoil hat out of storage

 

[The Boomer]

Wouldn't it be better to extend Porcello if it's possible before the regular season?  $110- $120 for 6 seasons of Porcello starting next year (his arbitration settlement is already a 2015 sunk cost) might be a safer bet at a lower AAV than roughly the same money for older Hamels for fewer seasons.  Unless the Sox can dump some salary in an exchange for Hamels, it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.  Sox resources are not infinite.  Essentially, Castillo replaced declining Ellsbury for less money during his prime years of production.  Porcello seems like the ultimate replacement for Lester for less money during his prime years.  I would rather see if Rodriguez, Johnson or Owens can step up as another lefty in the rotation than pay too much for Hamels both financially and in terms of prospects.  If the Sox contend, they might be able to get Cueto or somebody like him as a rental down the stretch if they determine they need more playoffs pitching.

 

[Saints Rest]

I wonder if Gillicks comments about needing a vet to bridge the gap to the prospects means that there may be some readiness from the Phils for a deal that is a blend of prospects and ML talent. It seems like that scenario could help the Sox as they have some ML talent surplus (both in the rotation, assuming Hamels is coming back in the deal, and in the OF).

Perhaps a deal that includes some significant salary heading back to Philly (say, Buchholz and/or Craig) plus an Owens and someone in the Sox 11-15 prospect range could get it done.

 

[Corsi]

Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo  3m3 minutes ago
Phils Kerfeld still here, on back fields watching Red Sox minor leaguers. He hasn't got this much pub since dominating Nintendo RBI Baseball

 

[DJnVa]

Is it possible, even the slightest bit, that Kerfield is watching the Sox the last few days because the Phillies open the regular season hosting them?  And it has nothing to do with Hamels, Lee, or any possible trade between the two teams?

 
 
Kerfeld is listed by the Phillies as the Special Assistant to the GM. I really doubt that he's scouting the Sox for a regular season matchup. His job is to scout talent not tendencies.
 

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
 
Kerfeld is listed by the Phillies as the Special Assistant to the GM. I really doubt that he's scouting the Sox for a regular season matchup. His job is to scout talent not tendencies.
 

Why would they be scouting for the regular season a month out?  It makes no sense.  Kerfeld is most likely there to get a better understanding of the minor league players the Phillies are interested in and seeing how they've progressed over the offseason.  It's not a coincidence he's in Red Sox camp and not anywhere else.  Of course, it remains to be seen if he goes on to another camp to do this same thing.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

No doubt he's looking closely at the guys in the 2nd game yesterday that the Sox were showcasing.  Like Montz, Tavarez, Quintero, and Spruill

 

[bosockboy]

Feels like a when more than an if at this point.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

Feels like a when more than an if at this point.

 
Are you referring to Amaro getting canned?  A Hamels-to-Boston deal?  Or both?  

 

[ItOnceWasMyLife]

Spending a lot of time around the Sox could be a way of putting some pressure on other possible suitors.  "Oh shit, they might have a deal going with the Sox, let's re-engage the Phil's and see what they want."

 

[Plympton91]

To me, what makes the most sense is that they are looking at seconf tier guys they'd be getting for Lee, but weren't scouting in relation to a Hamels deal. I can't imagine that Lee would garner more than a couple throw ins unless you're getting $15 million a year in offset from Philly Also, the Red Sox offer for Hammels was said to be major leaguer heavy. if Craig is part of a proposed Hamels deal, this would be their first opportunity to see him after a winter of rest.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 

Jim Salisbury ‏@JSalisburyCSN  1m1 minute ago
Cole Hamels takes mound in light rain. 29 scouts here, including 2 from Tex, 1 each Boston and St. Louis.
 

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

From Cafardo's Sunday notes:
 
 

 
According to one Phillies source, the Yankees have come the closest to landing Hamels, offering a package of prospects that at least has given the Phillies a baseline for future talks.
 

 
This is hilarious. Do the Phillies really think they can goad the Red Sox into giving up what they don't want by leaking that the Yankees will get him? Please.

 

[InsideTheParker]

The Yankees aren't foolish enough to give up Refsnyder and Judge, are they?

 

[snowmanny]

If the Yankees aren't including Severino in their offer a package led by Owens or Rodriguez is probably better.

 

[Mike F]

The Yankees aren't foolish enough to give up Refsnyder and Judge, are they?

History would indicate that they might IF they can add another $25M pitcher.

 

[RedOctober3829]

From Cafardo's Sunday notes:
 
 
 
This is hilarious. Do the Phillies really think they can goad the Red Sox into giving up what they don't want by leaking that the Yankees will get him? Please.

Wow, Yankees don't have nearly what it takes to land Hamels compared to the Red Sox even if you are just including their B package(aka non-Swihart and Betts offers).  That truly is hilarious.

 

[Corsi]

Ryan Lawrence ‏@ryanlawrence21  5m5 minutes ago
Cliff Lee has discomfort in left elbow.

 

[Norm loves Vera]

follow up on Corsi above:
 
Michael Silverman ‏@MikeSilvermanBB 43s44 seconds ago
Attention: RT @JSalisburyCSN Bad news. Ruben Amaro announces Cliff Lee has sore elbow again.

 

[Corsi]

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/574590774177849344

 

[theapportioner]

If Cliff Lee is heading towards Tommy John (seems likely as he was shut down for elbow issues last year), this changes the Hamels dynamic quite a bit. First of all, no more Cliff Lee trade as option 2. Playing through the season with what Amaro has is no longer a viable option (not like it was much of one before, but...); he'd almost certainly get fired barring a miracle. Blowing up the team should be even more likely now. Only thing is, I doubt he has assurances that he'll keep his job. 
 
I think he has to drop his prices, trade everybody Cherington-style for whatever he can get, and hope that he gets a bit lucky this season with pretty good prospects and vets performing beyond expectations (Victorino redux)?

 

[soxhop411]

The Yankees aren't foolish enough to give up Refsnyder and Judge, are they?

Would not shock me if they were in the package… Otherwise how could they have “come the closest"

 

[Byrdbrain]

Would not shock me if they were in the package… Otherwise how could they have “come the closest"

Well the leak could be complete BS intended only to get the Sox to panic and do something.
I doubt the Yankees are involved at all, they only have a few decent prospects I can't see them giving the up. That said it is the Yankees so you never know.

 

[soxhop411]

Jake Kaplan ‏@jakemkaplan 3m3 minutes ago
Ruben Amaro said this morning one team has "stepped up and has shown more particular interest" in Cole Hamels over the last couple days.

 

[Rasputin]

Jake Kaplan ‏@jakemkaplan 3m3 minutes ago
Ruben Amaro said this morning one team has "stepped up and has shown more particular interest" in Cole Hamels over the last couple days.

More interest than what? Than they did before? Than other teams do now? Than a Senior Savings Account at Chucks House of Bank?

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

If Cliff Lee is heading towards Tommy John (seems likely as he was shut down for elbow issues last year), this changes the Hamels dynamic quite a bit. First of all, no more Cliff Lee trade as option 2. Playing through the season with what Amaro has is no longer a viable option (not like it was much of one before, but...); he'd almost certainly get fired barring a miracle. Blowing up the team should be even more likely now. Only thing is, I doubt he has assurances that he'll keep his job. 
 
I think he has to drop his prices, trade everybody Cherington-style for whatever he can get, and hope that he gets a bit lucky this season with pretty good prospects and vets performing beyond expectations (Victorino redux)?

Everyone in baseball knew the Phillies should have dealt Lee two years ago. RAJ being RAJ decided unless someone empties the farm for him I'm not trading. Funny how there is now a similar situation with Hamels where RAJ is again sitting on a lefty ace and again is holding out for multiple top prospects. Less risky than Lee but this should have been done in the off season. Btw I would put money on Texas being the Hamels suitor since they lost Darvish.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Amaro's problem, as Jayson Stark so bluntly put it early in the preseason, is that he's more interest in getting respect for making a great deal with Hamels than he is in taking the best, most practical deal available. That means, when he makes statements such as the one quoted here, no one believes him.
 
Now, because he's played the holdout game for so long -- and leaked the names of the prospects he "must" have in a deal -- he's screwed, because he's not going to get those prospects andeven if he makes a good baseball trade he'll be seen as settling for less.

 

[ji oh]

One possible way to read statements that have come out about the Sox and Yankees:
 

• The Phillies ask for Betts or Swihart, which is totally unreasonable.  
• The Sox suggest mlb players we don't need, which is also unreasonable.  
• There are I think no reports the Sox have offered their below-Swihart prospects yet.  
• Now there are reports the Yankees have offered "a package of prospects that at least has given the Phillies a baseline for future talks" which is still not good enough but better than offering mlb players we don't need.  
• The Phillies are scouting the Sox.  
• The stage could now be set for us to offer prospects that are better than what the Yankees offered, but not unreasonable.

 

[DavidTai]

Then let them go to the Yankees if it involves Severino, Judge, and Refsnyder.
 
Might as well let them kill their minor league depth.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Amaro's problem, as Jayson Stark so bluntly put it early in the preseason, is that he's more interest in getting respect for making a great deal with Hamels than he is in taking the best, most practical deal available. That means, when he makes statements such as the one quoted here, no one believes him.
 
Now, because he's played the holdout game for so long -- and leaked the names of the prospects he "must" have in a deal -- he's screwed, because he's not going to get those prospects andeven if he makes a good baseball trade he'll be seen as settling for less.

This is 100% correct. The issue however is that 2 years ago Amaro had guys who would have given him a great return to jump start rebuilding. It was very clear that Philadelphia wasn't a playoff contender, yet RAJ kept passing them off as one. You had Pence Hamels Lee Utley and you still would have to pick up some salary for Howard but two or three years ago someone would have bit. Papelbon too and Bastardo was doing well in his role. The problem is Amaro sat on his assets so long they either got hurt or just lost value over time. Now the Phillies are screwed if they don't move Hamels because Lee now needs TJ. Pitchers are a high risk commodity to begin with then adding in Lee and his age a few years ago would have given an optimal return.

 

[TigerBlood]

Everyone in baseball knew the Phillies should have dealt Lee two years ago. RAJ being RAJ decided unless someone empties the farm for him I'm not trading. Funny how there is now a similar situation with Hamels where RAJ is again sitting on a lefty ace and again is holding out for multiple top prospects. Less risky than Lee but this should have been done in the off season. Btw I would put money on Texas being the Hamels suitor since they lost Darvish.

 
 
 
If Texas was expected to compete this season then I'd agree with you, but they're not, so I doubt they're trying to add payroll and deal prospects at the beginning of their rebuild.

 

[Harry Hooper]

More interest than what? Than they did before? Than other teams do now? Than a Senior Savings Account at Chucks House of Bank?

 
The Yanks finally returned his phone call, but the message they conveyed could have been anything.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

Jake Kaplan ‏@jakemkaplan 3m3 minutes ago
Ruben Amaro said this morning one team has "stepped up and has shown more particular interest" in Cole Hamels over the last couple days.

 
Well, at least we have Amaro to give us the play by play through the press. Who's ahead, who has stepped up, etc. That guy is too much.

 

[NDame616]

If this was about 12 years ago, we hadn't won 3 World Series', and the Yankees were still our "rival", I think this negotiation ploy would maybe work. However, with all that's transpired in the meantime, and how bad the Yankees' roster construction is, I can't imagine the Red Sox flinching.

 

[Corsi]

Heyman:
 

It's been reported in one place that the Yankees came “closest” to what the Phillies seek in trade talks for star Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels. If that's true that is bad news for the Phillies because the Yankees and Phillies have not talked about Hamels in quite awhile and there's no sense the sides were ever especially close.
 
The Boston Globe, citing a Phillies source, suggested the Yankees have come closest to landing Hamels, “offering a package of prospects that at least has given the Phillies a baseline for future talks.”
 
If that's true, and it's theoretically possible, that may mean no team was especially close. At present, at least the Yankees don't seem anywhere close to Hamels. Nor does it seem they were ever anywhere close.
 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25098725/yankees-were-never-close-to-getting-hamels-so-was-any-team-close

 

[Corsi]

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS  1m1 minute agoGoodyear, AZ
phillies like severino & judge from yanks (& perhaps refsnyder) but cashman said he's never received a "definite request"

 

[Pilgrim]

Sounds like a sad, outdated attempt at getting the Red Sox to budge.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
Heyman:
 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25098725/yankees-were-never-close-to-getting-hamels-so-was-any-team-close

 

 
LOL ... wouldn't you buy beers to find out what other GMs say about Amaro?

 

[bankshot1]

 
LOL ... wouldn't you buy beers to find out what other GMs say about Amaro?

He's the guy you ask over to play a little poker.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

 
Heyman:
 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25098725/yankees-were-never-close-to-getting-hamels-so-was-any-team-close

 

 
Wonder how Boras reacts when Heyman shoots down a Cafardo rumor scoop