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Forbes: Sox on the verge of a contract extension with Chris Sale ($35/year)

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by brandonchristensen, Mar 15, 2019.

  1. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    22,826
  2. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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  3. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    considering this was posted yesterday and nothing came out, yeah, this should just go in the extension thread as a rumor.
     
  4. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    Yeah - sorry guys.

    Saw it on reddit and it was pretty fresh. Mods - you can delete. Serves me right for thinking I could beat SoSH at a scoop.
     
  5. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    $35 AAV, through age 37 year (he turns 30 on March 30), I hope this isn't real.
     
    #5 Ale Xander, Mar 15, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2019
  6. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    18,016
    A 7-year extension starting with his age 31 year would end in his age 37 year.

    But I hope it isn't real too.
     
  7. Mueller's Twin Grannies

    Mueller's Twin Grannies Member SoSH Member

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    Until he can put together a season where he pitches into the fall without falling off a cliff or getting hurt, I don't want him getting a deal even close to that.
     
  8. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    Yeah, he should get a pro rated portion of the $35 million a year he’d be worth in a full season. So, $25 million. And it should not be for more than 4 years. Walk away otherwise.
     
  9. Hank Scorpio

    Hank Scorpio Member SoSH Member

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    Since when does Forbes break news on MLB contracts? This is bizarre, and given the dollars, years, Sale's recent health issues, and other talent we risk losing that I'd rather keep long term (Mookie, X, JDM, and even JBJ) - this feels like a terrible mistake in the making.
     
  10. Hank Scorpio

    Hank Scorpio Member SoSH Member

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    The Forbes article is awful. I don't think this guy has the slightest clue...

    No, they probably didn't.

    Says who? Based on what? In all likelihood this is just shit being thrown against the wall.

    Whoa. Give this man a fucking Pulitzer.
     
  11. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Mike Dowling no longer works for Channel 5, right? So he's not in the clubhouse on a regular basis any more, and probably has no feel for what's going on with the team. The Forbes piece is pretty clearly an opinion piece, not fact-based reporting. I mean, the line below his byline is "I will share with you my unique perspective on the Boston Red Sox". That sounds like a blog to me.

    Edit to add...Google says Dowling left Channel 5 in 2014. Can't imagine he has any sources left in the front office or on the roster.
     
  12. snowmanny

    snowmanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    There is a player on this team I would sign to a 7 year $35 million per extension. But it's not Chris Sale.
     
  13. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    What on earth would the benefit to the Sox be to do an extension at this price? This has to be wrong. Let him prove he's healthy for another year and the worst thing that could happen is you let him test the market and probably wind up near this dollar amount anyway.
     
  14. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    Well then you’d just be outright letting him walk because several teams will offer him more money and years than that. Even Patrick Corbin got 6/$140 and you only want to go 4/$100 for Sale? So do tell me who you’re replacing him with because a rotation with a 34-35 year old Price as your ace and Eovaldi as your two isn’t very likely to make the playoffs.
     
  15. John Marzano Olympic Hero

    John Marzano Olympic Hero has fancy plans, and pants to match Dope

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    $35m for seven years for Chris Sale is crazy town. Especially when you consider the other players eligible for free agency and Sale’s health history.

    And I like Chris Sale.

    Secondly, the idea that the Sox would only have Eovaldi and Price as competent starters is laughable. Free agency and trades are still ways of replenishing a rotation. Don’t worry about that.
     
  16. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    I'm not saying that they should necessarily do that much on an extension, but if they don't extend him, I could certainly see someone giving him a Greinke type contract if he's healthy and great (and we expect the greatness part, he's never had a bad year. Health is more questionable). People do overblow the health concerns with Sale though, he does NOT have any history of severe injuries, yet some act like he's always hurt. And the Yankees could certainly be one of those teams in the market for an ace next year.

    To your second point, our farm system is pretty barren now, we don't have the pieces necessary to land a pitcher of Sale's caliber or even close. The easiest way to get an ace is through free agency, and the only one at a comparable age available next year that I'd want is Cole. But he'll probably be close to as expensive as Sale will be and we already know Sale can handle the Boston pressure cooker environment and thrive in it, so let's just keep him.
     
  17. John Marzano Olympic Hero

    John Marzano Olympic Hero has fancy plans, and pants to match Dope

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    I'm not disparaging Sale, because I like him a lot. But if someone wants to pay him $35m a year for the next seven years, good luck.

    And you're right, while he hasn't been hurt, his second halves are usually worse than his first halves. Which suggests that he tires and runs out of gas in August, September and October. The Red Sox know this, which is why he was on such a short leash last year.

    His OBP, SLG, WHIP, home run allowed, ERA all go up in the second half. His won-loss record (which I know) is 34-36, all this despite pitch 230 less innings.

    I don't believe that every pitcher should be a 1970s-style horse that you ride all year long, but there is precedent for Sale's second half struggles. I don't think that he's worth that kind of money. Reasonable people can disagree, but I would rather spend more on Betts, Bogaerts and others than empty the piggy bank for Sale.
     
  18. OCD SS

    OCD SS Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    If he’s 30 and hasn’t done it yet, chances are it’s not something he’s going to do in the future. Any Sox contract needs to be realistic about this.
     
  19. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Problem is, that's market rate now. If you're giving Price $31M/year, how are you telling Sale you own't give him more four years later? Get him to add some weight, put him on a arm program and maybe give him the Pedro treatment where he skips a start here and there.
     
  20. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    Of course Betts should come first, but I disagree about Xander. He hasn't shown year to year consistency yet and his glove is subpar for his position. And there definitely isn't anyone else I'd rather keep, not even JD Martinez, who actually does have an injury history and is older (and a DH so inherently less valuable than an ace starter).

    Sale's second half numbers aren't bad, they just aren't as great as his first half numbers. Hell, his second half numbers compare favorably to Justin Verlander's career numbers overall. And W/L means nothing, Sale was on a bad White Sox team for 7 years.
     
  21. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    58,909
    The thing about the Price contract is that it has set the baseline. Sale, Mookie, X are all going to be shooting for 30+ and we're just going to have to accept the consequences
     
  22. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    Yeah, and the Red Sox literally print money. We might forget that John Henry also owns Liverpool. The Red Sox make more than enough of their own money to afford to pay everyone: Mookie, Sale, Xander, etc. We really shouldn't be concerned with money at all.

    I don't think Xander is in that $30 plus group though. He's good, but doesn't have a long track record of being elite like Sale and Mookie do. Those two will definitely be seeking 30+ and rightfully so, but Xander really is a guy who should settle into the low to mid 20's, I think.
     
  23. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    Price was awesome in the post season but I’m generally of the opinion that you don’t give big contracts to pitchers over thirty. The list of exceptions is short. Sale may have a credible case that he belongs, but I feel like he more closely resembles Pedro than Randy Johnson.
     
  24. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    What’s your criteria for this? I see very little similarity between Sale and Pedro besides the results and uniform. Pedro is (charitably) a foot shorter than Randy.

    These comparisons are tough because the game has evolved quite a bit since even 10-20 years ago and there just aren’t many pitchers over 6’4”, but I’d think Sale has more in common with Johnson or even C.C. Sabathia than Pedro. A modern-day Pedro comp is probably Tim Lincecum.

    7/$245M is obviously too high. Though fwiw, Randy Johnson was worth 50+ fWAR over his 31-37 years. C.C. was worth 19.6 fWAR — though he did have unique health/conditioning concerns some of those years.
     
  25. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    Correction: he didn't, until now. A shoulder problem that makes you miss six starts and then come back with clearly reduced velocity and effectiveness for the rest of the year qualifies as "severe" enough to make an extension of this kind seem foolish, I think--especially since we haven't seen him come back fully from it yet.
     
  26. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    They know his health better than anyone. If they felt there was anything seriously wrong with him, they wouldn't even be talking extension with him at all. And it's also pretty clear that Sale can still be very effective with reduced velocity, we've seen it before. His issues in the playoffs last year was just as much, if not more about lack of control moreso than velocity.

    You can wait till he hits free agency and then risk losing him to one of many suitors next year. Sure, he could sign today and his arm blow out tomorrow, but it's worth taking that risk than risking the alternative (losing him for nothing and having no ace replacement anywhere).
     
  27. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    If Betts comes first, and you assume at least $30 million for him, then to also keep Sale at $30 million, you’d have Price, Sale, and Betts at more than $90 million for just 3 players. Pedroia is still under contract at about $15 m luxury tax hit, and Eovaldi is $16 m so that’s at least $121m for 5 players. How do you fill in the rest of the roster, especially given, as you say, they don’t have a great farm system?
     
  28. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    They can fill the roster because they make $500 million in annual revenue, they aren't even spending half of that on payroll. Ownership is making gobs of money on this team, they absolutely can keep spending and keep winning. Or they can cheap out and profit more like so many teams do.

    But don't panic guys, because Alex Speier shot down that there's anything even close to this.

    I bet they are going to Lester this all over again. They probably low-balled the hell out of Sale and he isn't talking to them anymore. I'd certainly bank on that moreso than them actually giving him a fair offer, based on history.
     
  29. cornwalls@6

    cornwalls@6 Member SoSH Member

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    I love everything about the guy. Stuff, compete level, clubhouse presence, etc. But given his body type, long history of breaking down, or at least being considerably less effective, late in the season, and last year's actual injury issues, giving him this kind of contract would be insane. I suspect the reporting on this is very questionable, but if those terms were accurate, I'd have to, with more than a little regret, let him walk.
     
  30. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    It should be emphasized, again, that this really isn't a report. It's speculation from a blogger. Sure, a blogger who used to cover the team for a local TV station, but also a blogger who likely hasn't been in the clubhouse in five years.
     
  31. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    It’s worth pointing out that the Red Sox won a title with a TON of dead weight salary on the team. Dead weight that’s coming off the books. Chances are Sale won’t be a total dud of a contract, but even if he is, they can take that chance because they can afford it.

    On the other hand, can they take the chance of him leaving in free agency and going to the Yankees and dominating the Red Sox for years to come? I don’t think they can take that chance.
     
    #31 DirtyWater90, Mar 16, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2019
  32. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    I'm not sure the concern is having dead money. It's that they aslo need to pay Xander, Mookie, JBJ, ERod and they still don't have a decent bullpen. That adds up quick. It's not my money, so I don't really care, but the draft pick issue is the real deal.
     
  33. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    Well, if I could have Sale or JBJ and ERod, I’m taking Sale, no question. I would rather keep Sale over Xander too (id rather keep both and they can keep both) but I see that as being at least a debatable position.
     
  34. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Which is a perfectly reasonable stance, it's just not one shared by many. Losing Xander leaves a gaping hole - they don't have anyone in the pipeline. JBJ, they could overcome, as well as ERod. Trouble is they need to pay X and Mookie, which is probably about, I dunno, at least $60M on a low estimate. So add another $35M for Sale, plus Price at $31, So you're at figure $120M for 4 guys. I'd like to see him back too but, not at the cost of X or Mookie.
     
  35. Stanley Steamer

    Stanley Steamer Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I'm not sure this is the place to discuss what a contract for Chris Sale could or should look like, but I'm glad there appears to be little substance to this rumor. I also agree that Mookie is the guy that deserves that type of contract.
    I too hope that the Sox can find some common ground with Sale. It certainly depends how he looks to start the season, but if he should get back to his baseline, what is he worth? $35M AAV seems like the absolute upper end, and if so, would only merit a shorter contract, like 3-4 years. Sure, you can argue that he deserves more than Price's $31M, but DP got his contract at peak value, and there has clearly been a market correction these past 2 years. If Sale wants 5 to 6 years, it will have to be for less, I think.
    How about 6/180?
     
  36. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    And where is their ace replacement in the system? An ace is one of the most important players on a team, and lets be honest, Xander probably won’t be a shortstop for the entirety of a long term deal he signs. He’s gonna have to move eventually as his lack of range becomes even more of a liability.
     
  37. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    Some would say market correction, others would say that there’s some collusion going on to drive down salaries for players. I think it’s pretty clear that it’s happening to some degree. It’s a joke that guys like Kimbrel and Keuchel don’t have jobs yet. MLB made over $10 billion last year, a record, yet payroll is set to go down for the first time in many years. That’s not right, there are many things wrong in the CBA that led to this problem, and we are almost certainly headed for a strike in 2021.
     
  38. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    I question whether Sale will be an ace going forward. An ace needs to pitch at least enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Sale didn’t manage that last season.
     
  39. Max Power

    Max Power thai good. you like shirt? SoSH Member

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    The odds of Xander playing shortstop in year 7 of a contract are better than Sale being an ace in year 3 of his. His defense might not be good, but there's a much better track record for shortstops holding on into their mid 30s than ace pitchers producing at that level into their early 30s.
     
  40. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    That's a pretty wild take. Are you seriously claiming Sale wasn't an ace last year? The same guy who was leading in every Cy Young poll until the end of the season - not an ace because he missed some outdated arbitrary qualifier by 4 innings? Needless to say I don't agree with that. FTR, that's the first time Sale didn't qualify in his entire career as a starter, yet some act like he has a James Paxton track record or something.
     
  41. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    Really, because I can think of numerous aces pitching well into their early and even mid 30's now - Scherzer, Verlander, Kluber, Greinke to name just a few. CC Sabathia rebounded and pitched well into his late 30's. Randy Johnson of course had a legendary second half to his career, and for as much as people want to compare Sale to Pedro (but only in terms of how they expect him to break down early), Sale is far more like Randy not only stylistically but body type wise.

    Anyway, I'd be willing to bet that Sale produces more WAR over the next 5 years than Xander does over the next 7.
     
  42. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    Unfortunately, Sale won't be compensated (directly) based on past performance. Sale was excellent for the early part of the year, but the missed games and velocity drop are significant concerns. I don't see what's so wild about acknowledging that fact.

    Pedro, to draw a convenient comparison, still had three good seasons in his thirties despite a torn rotator cuff. But the wheels came off pretty quickly after that.
     
  43. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    I will take that bet. And I hope the Red Sox would as well.
     
    #43 moondog80, Mar 17, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2019
  44. Sandy Leon Trotsky

    Sandy Leon Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    He was clearly an "ace"... but this gets to the heart of a problem with measuring counting stats and then averaging them out over a year, and also addresses streaky players (JBJ). Is it worth more to have a dominant ace in April, May, June and July then to disappear, or to have a Porcello type that will provide consistency throughout the year and then into the playoffs?
    What is it worth to have a Chris Sale for 2/3 of a season then have a Steven Wright make the last 1/3 of starts.... Add in that Sale wasn't exactly dominant in the playoffs after his "rest" months either.
    We know he has only missed that qualifier once in his career... but that was the most recent year... and he has a track record of a serious and alarming drop off in the second half. Add all those things together and is that a 7 year $35M per season pitcher? I don't think so.... Is it worth $30M for 7? I also don't think so....
     
  45. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    Sale has routinely been a 6+ WAR pitcher in just about every year of his career as a starter. You know how many guys have been that routinely this decade? Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw are the only other pitchers who can lay claim to being as consistently dominant as Chris Sale. Yet you guys seem to think this guy is so easily replaceable and not worth any type of investment. I’m just glad DD isn’t seeking any opinions from the consensus here, I’ll say that much.
     
  46. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    Let’s see, Sale or Porcello. One was worth 6.9 WAR in 158 innings, the other 3.1 in 191 innings. I’d definitely rather have Sale, even one who misses significant time, than Porcello. And I love Porcello, but there’s just no way I keep him before I keep Chris Sale.
     
  47. Sandy Leon Trotsky

    Sandy Leon Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    I wasn't really comparing the two.... of course Chris Sale is more valuable... but the question I'm getting at is: Is Chris Sale, and his 2 month replacement level starter as valuable in overall cost to the team in relation to WAR than someone like Porcello? And what is the cost difference there and where can the drop in WAR be better applied elsewhere.
    Is Porcello and Mookie and X and JDM and JBJ worth more or less than Sale, Steven Wright, X, JDM and JBJ.... but no Mookie, say? There's limited finances available.
     
  48. Pitt the Elder

    Pitt the Elder Member SoSH Member

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    Chris Sale career stats by month:

    MonthIPERAK/9BB/9HR/9AVGWHIPBABIPFIPXFIP
    Mar/Apr229.22.829.642.040.780.2080.990.2692.913.24
    May239.12.6211.212.410.750.1840.940.2542.652.93
    Jun2912.5410.861.790.710.2060.960.2842.472.71
    Jul2252.4010.721.680.640.2251.030.3102.472.83
    Aug259.13.1611.732.221.040.2161.050.2982.922.82
    Sept/Oct2383.7810.892.161.470.2561.230.3323.782.97

    It's clear that Sale gets worse in August, September, and October, but his 3.78 career FIP in Sept/Oct would have been good for 23rd in MLB last year for the entire season, just behind Dallas Keuchel (3.69) and Zach Greinke (3.71). In other words, at his worst, Sale is a very good pitcher.

    What I find interesting in the graph above is that Sale's K/9 and BB/9 are still very very good in Sept/Oct yet he sees a big spike in HR/9 (nearly twice the rate as in Mar thru Jul). This difference is picked up in his FIP vs xFIP, the latter of which is still very good in Sept/Oct (2.97). The evidence would suggest that he's still missing bats but giving up much harder contact, possibly due to a decrease in velocity. However, the pitchFx data doesn't really show a meaningful decrease in velocity:

    YearMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct
    2010-----96.4596.4896.58
    201193.694.8295.7796.4297.6696.6196.79-
    2012-94.7693.5593.7793.0393.4392.48-
    201392.1492.9394.3795.3494.9994.394.24-
    201495.1194.4494.0394.1595.9995.1994.69-
    201595.5794.8895.9996.3296.8195.1495.79-
    2016-93.7893.7393.9693.4893.7792.7293.92
    2017-95.395.6594.5994.2195.2895.5696.04
    201894.3293.3696.3897.6797.5698.1792.8293.61
    AVG94.1594.2894.9395.2895.4795.3794.6295.04
    Median94.2394.4494.9395.2895.4795.2494.6595.04

    Anyway, I'm not sure why Sale pitches worse at the end of the year and, sure, we'd all prefer that his splits were reversed and that he started the year pitching very well and then finished as a dominate ace but, all things considered, what he does is still pretty damn valuable.
     
  49. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    11,652
    At his worst, Chris Sale can’t take the ball and pitch. He missed basically the whole second half of last season with a shoulder injury. That’s the relevant question when you’re talking about that much money for that many years for a pitcher.
     
  50. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

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    Well, that's the worst case scenario for any pitcher. Maybe Sale is riskier, but that's debatable. Sale missing that much time was the exception in his career, not the rule. It's possible that's the new norm for him, but I'm not ready to make that proclamation after one year.

    And thank you to Pitt the elder for posting those stats. The way some paint Sale, you'd think he was a below average pitcher in September. That clearly shows that he's still very good, but just not the ungodly pitcher he is April-July.
     

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