It was really easy to follow a few ex-Red Sox and their performance this weekend. Koji for 2/$18 or Miller for 4/$40?
Plympton91 said:It was really easy to follow a few ex-Red Sox and their performance this weekend. Koji for 2/$18 or Miller for 4/$40?
WenZink said:
What did Koji do over the weekend that had anything to do with his contract evaluation? He didn't even get into a game, because the Sox offense couldn't get a lead.
And the Sox were after Miller, but didn't value him as high for 4 years committed. Are you sure that Miller's performance will be as high in 2018 or are you just excited over his 2 saves this weekend? Are you suggesting that's how the Red Sox should value players?
Miller has had one great year, 2014. Before that, his BB/9 was too high to be considered worthy of his contract, in the Red Sox opinion, at least. And the Red Sox were in the best position to evaluate and project Miller. They assisted him in his transition to elite status. I'd trust their evaluation process, and two outstanding saves over a weekend series is not going to change my opinion. Should it?Adrian's Dome said:
No, he's suggesting that 4/40 might not've been so much of a reach for a guy that has a recent history of being terrific and has put up a line this season of 13.1IP, 3H, 0R, 6BB, and 26K, especially in contrast to the cost of a 40+ year old Koji.
There's more reason to believe Miller will be just as good three years from now then suddenly and inexplicably fall off a cliff in his early 30s.
WenZink said:Miller has had one great year, 2014. Before that, his BB/9 was too high to be considered worthy of his contract, in the Red Sox opinion, at least. And the Red Sox were in the best position to evaluate and project Miller. They assisted him in his transition to elite status. I'd trust their evaluation process, and two outstanding saves over a weekend series is not going to change my opinion. Should it?
If you think the sample size of Miller's "elite status" is greater than 2014, please educate me. Even in 2013, before he broke his foot, his BB/9 was 5 and his WHIP was b.37. A lot of K's, but hardly elite, IMO.Adrian's Dome said:
The sample size is greater than just 2014.
And if you're going to boil everything down to "welp, the Sox didn't do it, and I trust them," then fuck discussion altogether, am I right? I'll gladly keep watching Breslow and Mujica.
WenZink said:If you think the sample size of Miller's "elite status" is greater than 2014, please educate me. Even in 2013, before he broke his foot, his BB/9 was 5 and his WHIP was b.37. A lot of K's, but hardly elite, IMO.
And sorry that you have to resort to insults with "welp." Personally, i think its great for baseball to have all sorts of fans, even those that feel that Miller's 2 great saves over one weekend, upgrades his evaluation as well as the contract assessment. Not the way I'd want a GM to evaluate, or the way I'd do it, but perfectly okay for some fans.
Plympton91 said:It was really easy to follow a few ex-Red Sox and their performance this weekend. Koji for 2/$18 or Miller for 4/$40?
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
One month into each contract and you're already declaring winners. You all know better than this. My goodness.
Plympton's entry was ALL about the weekend. He posted, "It was really easy to follow a few ex-Red Sox and their performance this weekend.." And although Miller has always been hard to hit, his BB/9 was too high, (before 2014) to justify him being a closer at the kind of contract he was offered.Adrian's Dome said:
And I'm sorry that anyone that disagrees with your take is boiled down to a casual who is just going off Miller's performance over a weekend (by the way, that's not what Plympton meant. He was just stating it was easier to see in those two instances.) He's been nothing short of dominant since the full-time move to the bullpen, and there's no reason to believe it's a fluke.
If you can provide any sample of evidence that Miller will revert back to what he was before he became redefined as a full-time reliever, then by all means.
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
One month into each contract and you're already declaring winners. You all know better than this. My goodness.
WenZink said:Plympton's entry was ALL about the weekend. He posted, "It was really easy to follow a few ex-Red Sox and their performance this weekend.." And although Miller has always been hard to hit, his BB/9 was too high, (before 2014) to justify him being a closer at the kind of contract he was offered.
The Sox helped him make the adjustment in his delivery in order to improve his control, and that made them the most knowledgeable in projecting his future, IMO. The Orioles would be a close second. Both teams didn't value Miller as high as the Yankees.
Well you completely confound me.Adrian's Dome said:
Yeah, that's what he posted, but in no way did he imply that the weekend sample was all that was needed to focus on. You're also operating under the assumption that the Sox had more inside information on Miller than the opposition and that they didn't value him as highly, and you know neither of those as fact.
Lastly, given the performance of the Sox bullpen to this point (they've already began shaking things up,) perhaps they should've valued him a bit higher.
WenZink said:Well you completely confound me.
1. Plympton didn't imply anything AT ALL. He only mentioned the weekend games, and then posted salaries, with an inflated number for Miller.
2. Of course the Sox had more inside information. He was on the team for almost 4 years. They converted him to a reliever. They adjusted his delivery.
3. Of course the Sox didn't value him as highly as the Yankees. They didn't match the deal. That is fact. Miller, himself, has said that the Sox made a good offer, but the Yankees' offer was better. That is how I know it is fact. Straight from the horse's mouth.
Adrian's Dome said:
1. Try comprehension. It's fun.
2 & 3. Again, you do not know these as facts.
Miller signed the offer the Yankees gave him. That's a fact. Everything else, especially statements regarding how teams value potential acquisitions, are bullshit assumptions.
Adrian's Dome said:Are you serious? The implication by Plympton was that, perhaps, the Miller contract wasn't so crazy as outlined by many SoSHers, especially in contrast to Koji's deal. How is that difficult to understand?
Secondly, everything in your second point is irrelevant to the contract negotiations (of which you know nothing about.) Yes, he was on the Red Sox for four years and they converted him to a reliever. This does not mean they had more inside information on him than any other club involved in the negotiations, which you implied as a fact. You also stated as fact the Sox didn't value him as highly, which you also have no earthly clue about.
Lastly, that statement is likely nothing more than Miller staying neutral. Hey, Andrew, why didn't you go back to Boston? "Well, they made a good offer and were in it to the end, but I thought this was a good fit."
Adrian's Dome said:Right. They had the best insights yet deemed him not worth it in comparison. That's exactly what happened.
Adrian's Dome said:Right. They had the best insights yet deemed him not worth it in comparison. That's exactly what happened.
Can you also tell me the exact circumstances behind every other trade and signing? I bet you can.
Plympton91 said:
I think that's exactly what happened. The same thing that happened with Melancon, who Ben overpaid for and then dumped prematurely, and Bailey, who they overpaid for, and Hanrahan, who they didn't do due diligence on his health, and Mujica, who they inexplicably gave a multiyear contract off a terrible second half in 2013, and Breslow, who they inexplicably brought back despite having at least 3 better minimum salaried options. They misevaluated a relief pitcher, relative to other options available. I mean, other than Uehara, have they made a good trade or signing of a relief pitcher in Ben's tenure? The first acquisition of Breslow was Theo, right? And even then, he wasn't demonstrably better than Albers over that timeframe. Maybe they should have an Asst. GM who inherits the responsibility for constructing a bullpen, and let Ben do the rest.
And tonight they're back in their all-too-familiar position under Ben Cherington of last place in the AL East.
WenZink said:
And I love how after just one month into Miller's 4 year contract, you've already figured out the ending. Meanwhile, most of us poor "laymen" will have to wait a couple of years to evaluate the Andrew Miller contract.
Dear sir,WenZink said:
1. There is no implication in the words posted by Plympton. Maybe you have a wild imagination, but that's another issue altogether.
crystalline said:Dear sir,
If you see no implication in the post about Koji and Miller's contracts you should
1. Never take the SAT Verbal, because you will fail it
2. Become an actuary or something else that focuses on numbers
Re: Koji and Miller's contracts: let's keep in mind that long contracts ALWAYS look better in their first year. If you are comparing two signings, one for 2 yrs and one for 4 years, it is almost a tautology that in year one, the four year player will look better. Because the reason that player got a four year contract is that he is a better player. The main way the 2 year contract would look better is four years down the road when you look at the decline phase of both pitchers.
Also, Andrew Miller is not a starter. Though he doesn't have a sprained shoulder or a broken finger, so that's good. Can he catch?
Plympton91 said:
Wait, I thought you said just a few posts above that transactions should be evaluated based on information available at the time, and not ex-post after we know the outcome? Are you changing your mind?
And, I agree with your main point that the Red Sox have access to far more information than message board posters. Thus, it is reasonable to assume they'll be "right" far more often as well.
As for Ben winning a world series in 2013, that's nice, but the Red Sox set their own standard for success. It is one I agree with. They said their goal is to make the playoffs in 6 or 7 out of every 10 years, because winning the post-season tournament championship (it's no longer the world series to me) is basically a random 1 in 8 chance once you get past the gimmicky one-game playoff that is essentially a coin flip. That's 60% to 70% playoff success as a benchmark set by the ownership. Ben is looking like he'll be 1 for 4. 25%.
WenZink said:
Rather than keep some silly illusion alive ("We're only 6 games out of the 2nd wild card spot! Tickets still available!"), they've gotten the most from their expiring assets and not worried about finishing 3rd, 4th or Last. Would it really make any difference if the Sox had held on to Lester, Lackey and Miller last year, and finished 4th? Really? Don't you prefer that they got something for those players, and STILL were able to make a run at Lester and Miller? (And I understand Lackey was a different situation, but I realize, that on this site, it's a "sin" to like Lackey, so no one talks about it.)
Plympton91 said:
Last diversion in the thread about following former Red Sox, but you are right that the problem less "finishing last" and more missing the playoffs repeatedly, increasingly often doing so in a way such that it's clear you're going to miss the playoffs as early as Flag Day, and then having the "kids to the rescue" play so poorly that they can't keep you out of the cellar despite starting from 3rd place, 2/3rds of the way through the season.
Rudy Pemberton said:I don't think the master plan is often as "planned" as we think, though. It's pretty flexible. When they acquired Cespedes, there was this cry of "Oooh...they are going after power, because power is scarce", and then they traded him. No one seemed to be a fan of Porcello (we can get more than him for Cespedes!) until they acquired him, and then it was all about groundballers, or players of a certain age, or whatever. The plan was all about getting guys who ran deep counts...until they got Sandoval. Like every other major league baseball team, the Sox are balancing both the near term and the short term, and doing whatever they can to acquire good players and assemble a team. I don't think their "master plan" is any more unique than most other teams in baseball- all of whom have a rough pie in the sky idea of who could be playing where in a few years, while acknowledging that it probably won't work out that way. They may have had inside info on guys like Lester, Miller, Ellsbury, etc- but does that make them really any smarter than a bunch of other teams? They'll get some wrong, and some right, and hopefully more of the latter.
WenZink said:John Lackey pitched 7.2 innings to beat the Cubs last night. He allowed 1 ER with 5 H, 1 BB and 10 K's to lower his ERA to 3.20 on the season. Lackey has had 10 home starts since going to St. Louis and has a home ERA of 1.97.
Pretty good deal this year for just the league minimum of $500,000. Still no extension worked out, so I guess Lackey is shooting for one more big contract.
Lackey for Kelly seemed like a pretty good deal last summer, And while I still think Joe K will be a good pitcher, in some way or another, the cost of Allen Craig may sour the deal. After paying Craig the balance of the $5.5 mil for 2015, the Sox are on the hook for another $20 mil gtd for 2016-17, with a $1 M buyout for 2018. I don't know how the Sox give Craig enough chances to show he's still worth anywhere near that kind of money. Especially with Victorino coming back next week, and Castillo close to being called up.
Rovin Romine said:
He'll be 37 and has been at least league average since his 2012 surgery. It may be a big contract, or he may have to year-to-year it, but he's likely far from done. Especially if he stays in the NL.
Andrew Miller?Rudy Pemberton said:Also, was that deal really on the table? Who's the Sox Wade Davis?
I always thought RDLR would have been a nice eighth or ninth inning guy. A perfect replacement for Uehara.luckysox said:Of all the guys traded, RDLR was the one I thought might be something if we gave him a chance. Admittedly, I wasn't sure if that would be as a starter or in the pen, but he's a guy who seemed to ooze potential. It'll be interesting too watch the beginning of his career play out.